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September still a hold, while swap contracts suggest odds a 49.3% chance of a hike at the November 1st FOMC meeting Supercore inflation rate rises most since March Two-year Treasury drifts lower by 2.1 bps to 4.999% Inflation is not easing enough for the Fed to abandon their hawkish stance. The upside surprises might be small, but that should keep the hawks in control. Core inflation heated up for the first time in six months and that should have markets leaning towards one more Fed rate hike

13-09-2023 10:52 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD - Slides after GDP data as odds of BoE hold next week slightly improve

UK contracts faster than expected One-off factors largely behind the decline, BoE still expected to hike Major support being tested in cable The UK economy contracted faster than expected in July which is weighing on the pound this morning. GDP fell 0.5%, much faster than the 0.2% contraction that was expected, but as has been the case throughout this year, one-off factors played a big role. Strikes and the weather were largely blamed for the steep decline although some are clearly worried

13-09-2023 08:05 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD eyes US inflation, Aussie jobs report

US inflation expected to rise Australia releases employment data on Thursday The Australian dollar is lower on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6408, down 0.28%. US consumer inflation expected to increase The US releases the August inflation report later today.

13-09-2023 07:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound pares losses after soft GDP

UK GDP falls by 0.5% GBP/USD dips slightly lower The British pound has edged lower on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2472, down 0.17%.

13-09-2023 04:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY: USD supported as 10-year auction attracts highest yield since 2007

Treasury rates remain attractive: 2-year at 5.009%, 5-year at 4.428%, 10-year at 4.288%, and 30-year at 4.370% US inflation report expectations are for core readings to remain subdued, while headline jumps on rising gas prices. CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.2%; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.2% prior; core m/m: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; y/y: 4.3.%e v 4.7% prior Fed rate hike expectations are pricing in slightly a greater chance of more tightening this winter.

12-09-2023 13:45 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD: Canadian dollar gets a boost from surging oil prices

Canadian dollar rally runs out of steam ahead of US inflation report Brent crude rallies over $91, highest levels since November BOC rate hike expectations hover around 34.3% for October 25th meeting/ 17.5% for the December 6th meeting. The USD/CAD (a daily chart of which is shown) as of Tuesday (9/12/2023) has shown bullish correctiveness is accelerating on the break of key trendline support that has been since July 31st. If a bearish bias remains in place, downward momentum could target t

12-09-2023 12:51 GMT by Edward Moya

Brent crude - Oil rally accelerates higher after OPEC monthly report

Downside risks to the global economy remain Output restrictions from Saudi Arabia and Russia push oil market further into deficit Oil accelerates higher after brief consolidation Oil prices are creeping higher again on Tuesday, with Brent trading around $92 despite there being a mixed view on the economic outlook. As we heard from the European Commission yesterday, growth in the euro area is going to be relatively minor, with Germany struggling to avoid another recession.

12-09-2023 12:37 GMT by Craig Erlam

Australian dollar dips on soft consumer confidence

Australia's consumer confidence falls sharply Australia's business conditions improve Markets eye US inflation report on Wednesday The Australian dollar has edged lower on Tuesday after starting the week with massive gains. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6412, down 0.28%. Australia's consumer confidence slides Australian consumers are in a sour mood, as they feel the squeeze of high interest rates and stubborn inflation, which has led to heavily-debted households.

12-09-2023 09:54 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro dips on soft confidence data

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment worsens German ZEW Economic Sentiment improves but remains negative ECB rate decision up in the air and could go to the wire The euro started the week higher but has reversed directions on Tuesday and pared most of those gains. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0709, down 0.38%. German and eurozone confidence data indicate pessimism There hasn't been much to cheer about with regard to German and eurozone data lately, so it's no surprise tha

12-09-2023 08:58 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP - Another BoE hike likely as UK wage growth continues to rise

UK wage growth hits a record high at 8.5% including bonuses Unemployment remains at 4.3% as number of unemployed falls by 207,000 Sterling trades lower after the release The Bank of England may have little option but to raise rates again next week despite comments recently indicating the debate will be fairly balanced. The UK labour market figures offer something for everyone on the face of it but under the circumstances, BoE hawks will likely be more emboldened by the figures than the dov

12-09-2023 06:02 GMT by Craig Erlam

British pound loses ground after mixed jobs report

UK job growth slides, but wages hit record high GBP/USD slips below 1.25 The British pound is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2470, down 0.31%. UK jobs fall but wages rise Will the real UK labour market please stand up?

12-09-2023 05:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Podcast - China's deflationary pressure eases, further cooling expectations on US inflation may be derailed by rising oil prices

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss the latest China's consumer inflation and factory gate prices for August that have shown signs of easing deflationary pressures as well as the latest indirect monetary policy stimulus where China's financial regulator has allowed more leeway for Chinese insurance firms to invest their surplus cash into the China stock market. Upcoming ECB's monetary policy decision and US CPI prints for August where higher oil prices in the pas

12-09-2023 03:15 GMT by Kelvin Wong

CHF/JPY Technical: Bullish exhaustion sighted below the key resistance of 166.60

The recent four months of bullish acceleration may have reached a major climax condition at 166.60 resistance. The short-term minor trend of CHF/JPY has turned bearish as it traded below the prior upward-sloping 20-day moving average. Watch the key short-term resistance at 165.60 on CHF/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “CHF/JPY Technical: Relentless uptrend movement” published on 31 August 2023. Click here for a recap. After recording an accumulated gain of +2,378 pips si

12-09-2023 01:04 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/JPY: Make or break time as China's economy appears to be stabilizing

China's new yuan loans skyrocketed to 1.36 trillion yuan in August, much higher than the prior month's 345 billion yuan. Optimism grows for China's outlook as stimulus appears to filtering throughout the economy Dollar has biggest drop in two months as yen and yuan gain The big risk aversion trade over the summer has seen AUD/JPY consolidate around the 94.00 level. A downbeat outlook for China kept the Australian dollar heavy, while US economic resilience has kept yen softer on a widening inte

11-09-2023 17:17 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY: More volatility to come; Apple’s big reveal, Cooling inflation, Japan chatter, and a weakening US outlook

Post-BOJ Initial reaction - yen jumped, dollar fell, gold rallied, and equities rose. Some of these moves have started to reverse Japan's Overnight Swap Indexes have an implied rate of 0.042% by the January 23rd BOJ policy meeting US 3-year Treasury attracts highest yield since 2007 (4.660% vs 4.650% pre-sale)

11-09-2023 14:29 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY - Yen spikes after Ueda comments but is it sustainable?

Ueda hints that BoJ could raise rates How seriously should we take the comments amid intervention speculation? Divergences suggest traders becoming nervous A relatively quiet start to the week from an economic data perspective but we're still seeing some decent moves in the markets this morning, particularly in the Japanese yen. The yen has jumped this morning on the back of comments from Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda, who hinted that interest rates may not be negative for much longer. Ue

11-09-2023 13:23 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD - Edges higher as European Commission downgrades growth forecasts

EC downgrades eurozone growth for this year and next Will the ECB be deterred if their forecasts have similar downgrades? EURUSD slips below key support ahead of US inflation data and ECB The European Commission downgraded its forecasts for the EU this year and next, weighed down by much weaker growth in Germany. The new forecasts won't come as a major surprise and may even prove overly optimistic over time but they do come days ahead of the next ECB meeting and could tempt some policymakers i

11-09-2023 13:01 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD punches above 1.25, UK job report next

British pound posts strong gains UK to release employment report on Tuesday The British pound has started the week with strong gains. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2537, up 0.61%.

11-09-2023 12:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar jumps as Chinese deflation eases

Australian dollar jumps 1% Australia releases consumer and business confidence on Tuesday The Australian dollar is sparkling on Monday, with massive gains of 1% against the US dollar. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6441. China inflation numbers boost Aussie The Australian dollar received a major boost after China's inflation release over the weekend.

11-09-2023 10:26 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen soars as Ueda says BoJ could raise rates

The Japanese yen has roared out of the gates on Monday and gained 1% against the US dollar. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.34. Ueda says negative rates could end The yen has been on a dreadful slide and dropped close to the 148 line last week.

11-09-2023 05:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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