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Podcast - China's deflationary pressure eases, further cooling expectations on US inflation may be derailed by rising oil prices

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss the latest China's consumer inflation and factory gate prices for August that have shown signs of easing deflationary pressures as well as the latest indirect monetary policy stimulus where China's financial regulator has allowed more leeway for Chinese insurance firms to invest their surplus cash into the China stock market. Upcoming ECB's monetary policy decision and US CPI prints for August where higher oil prices in the pas

12-09-2023 03:15 GMT by Kelvin Wong

CHF/JPY Technical: Bullish exhaustion sighted below the key resistance of 166.60

The recent four months of bullish acceleration may have reached a major climax condition at 166.60 resistance. The short-term minor trend of CHF/JPY has turned bearish as it traded below the prior upward-sloping 20-day moving average. Watch the key short-term resistance at 165.60 on CHF/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “CHF/JPY Technical: Relentless uptrend movement” published on 31 August 2023. Click here for a recap. After recording an accumulated gain of +2,378 pips si

12-09-2023 01:04 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/JPY: Make or break time as China's economy appears to be stabilizing

China's new yuan loans skyrocketed to 1.36 trillion yuan in August, much higher than the prior month's 345 billion yuan. Optimism grows for China's outlook as stimulus appears to filtering throughout the economy Dollar has biggest drop in two months as yen and yuan gain The big risk aversion trade over the summer has seen AUD/JPY consolidate around the 94.00 level. A downbeat outlook for China kept the Australian dollar heavy, while US economic resilience has kept yen softer on a widening inte

11-09-2023 17:17 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY: More volatility to come; Apple’s big reveal, Cooling inflation, Japan chatter, and a weakening US outlook

Post-BOJ Initial reaction - yen jumped, dollar fell, gold rallied, and equities rose. Some of these moves have started to reverse Japan's Overnight Swap Indexes have an implied rate of 0.042% by the January 23rd BOJ policy meeting US 3-year Treasury attracts highest yield since 2007 (4.660% vs 4.650% pre-sale)

11-09-2023 14:29 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY - Yen spikes after Ueda comments but is it sustainable?

Ueda hints that BoJ could raise rates How seriously should we take the comments amid intervention speculation? Divergences suggest traders becoming nervous A relatively quiet start to the week from an economic data perspective but we're still seeing some decent moves in the markets this morning, particularly in the Japanese yen. The yen has jumped this morning on the back of comments from Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda, who hinted that interest rates may not be negative for much longer. Ue

11-09-2023 13:23 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD - Edges higher as European Commission downgrades growth forecasts

EC downgrades eurozone growth for this year and next Will the ECB be deterred if their forecasts have similar downgrades? EURUSD slips below key support ahead of US inflation data and ECB The European Commission downgraded its forecasts for the EU this year and next, weighed down by much weaker growth in Germany. The new forecasts won't come as a major surprise and may even prove overly optimistic over time but they do come days ahead of the next ECB meeting and could tempt some policymakers i

11-09-2023 13:01 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD punches above 1.25, UK job report next

British pound posts strong gains UK to release employment report on Tuesday The British pound has started the week with strong gains. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2537, up 0.61%.

11-09-2023 12:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar jumps as Chinese deflation eases

Australian dollar jumps 1% Australia releases consumer and business confidence on Tuesday The Australian dollar is sparkling on Monday, with massive gains of 1% against the US dollar. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6441. China inflation numbers boost Aussie The Australian dollar received a major boost after China's inflation release over the weekend.

11-09-2023 10:26 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen soars as Ueda says BoJ could raise rates

The Japanese yen has roared out of the gates on Monday and gained 1% against the US dollar. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.34. Ueda says negative rates could end The yen has been on a dreadful slide and dropped close to the 148 line last week.

11-09-2023 05:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Technical: Bears are stalling again at the 200-day moving average ahead of US CPI and ECB

Last Friday’s price actions of spot Gold (XAU/USD) have managed to find support again at the 200-day moving average ahead of the US CPI data release & ECB monetary policy decision this week. The recent -5.15 % decline seen in Gold from its 20 July 2023 swing high of US$$1,987.53 has started to see some signs of short-term bullish reversal elements since 21 August 2023. The up-trending 10-year US Treasury real yield has also started to consolidate between 1.95% to 2.00% level.

10-09-2023 23:55 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - Bad week for stocks, good week for oil

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss Wall Street's losing week, a robust Canadian jobs report, and oil's bullish trend. Next week's US inflation data and retail sales report will be key for the Fed's November rate hike expectations.

08-09-2023 14:25 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CHF: Dollar rally awaits next week’s CPI and retail sales data

Fed expected to keep rates on hold on September 20th 10-year Treasury yield eases back to 4.248% as 4.36% remains key resistance US retail sales are expected to weaken and the US inflation report will be mixed (core steady, headline rises) The US dollar rally may have to wait till next week’s inflation and retail sales data. The dollar is slightly softer across the board as Treasury yields soften.

08-09-2023 12:06 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD - A Bank of England pause may not be as far away as thought

BoE hints at balanced debate at the next meeting Employment survey points to further weakness GBPUSD nearing major support zone A big couple of weeks are in store for the Bank of England and figures today may support the case for a more balanced debate on 21st September, as policymakers hinted this week. Inflation is by no means under control but it is falling fast and, if the BoE is to be believed, it is expected to fall markedly over the remainder of the year.

08-09-2023 12:00 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD: A hot Canadian employment/wage report sends the loonie higher

BOC rate hike odds for the October 25th meeting rise from yesterday's 23.9% to 28.8% Hours worked climbed to the highest level since February CAD futures open interest rise to best levels since mid-March Canada’s economy isn’t quite ready to cool. The latest Canadian employment report showed hiring bounced back in August, doubling expectations. The near 40,000 added jobs exceeded the 17,500 consensus estimate and proved that the prior month’s unexpected shedding of jobs was not the beginning

08-09-2023 10:42 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - US inflation key, ECB ponders rate pause, UK labor market data

This week is all about the US CPI report and retail sales data. If the US demand for goods didn’t weaken that much and if inflation heated up, rate hike expectations for the November meeting might become the consensus. The inflation report might not be as clear as headline inflation will obviously rise given the surge in gasoline prices, but core might deliver another subdued reading.

08-09-2023 09:57 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro edges higher, German CPI unchanged

German inflation dips to 6.1% The data calendar is light on Friday and EUR/USD is trading at 1.0707 in Europe, up 0.09%. There are no tier-1 events out of the eurozone or the US, which means we can expect subdued movement from the euro for the remainder of the day. The euro is poised to record a losing week for an eighth straight time.

08-09-2023 08:59 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY headed for a losing week

USD/JPY has edged higher, trading at 147.46 in Europe, up 0.11%. On Thursday, USD/JPY rose as high as 147.87, close to the symbolic 148 line which has held since October 2022. Investors continue to focus on Japanese inflation releases, which indicate that inflation is above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%.

08-09-2023 07:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar steady ahead of jobs report

Canada expected to have shed 6,400 jobs BoC's Macklem says rate increases may be needed to lower inflation The Canadian dollar is steady on Friday in what should be a busy day. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3670, down 0.12%.

08-09-2023 05:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD extends losses after weak housing data

British pound falls to 3-month low against US dollar UK house prices fall sharply BoE's Bailey is non-committal about September rate decision The British pound has extended its losses on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2472, down 0.28%.

07-09-2023 12:57 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD: Pound slide extends to the 200-day SMA

UK home prices plunge 4.6% in the year up to August, worst y/y drop since 2009 UK businesses expected to deliver smallest price rise since February 2022 GBP underperforms as BOE rate hike expectations shrink; implied rate peak at 5.699% vs 5.671% on Sept 1st GBP/USD (a daily chart of which is show) has steadily weakened this month, now falling below the 1.25000 level. This occurs within the context of a strong accelerated downtrend extending originally from the 1.3140 area highs in July. The

07-09-2023 12:36 GMT by Edward Moya

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