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USD/CAD: Loonie rides oil's bullish wave
US dollar weakness emerges on as inflation expectations fall to lowest levels in over two year; November Fed rate hike odds remain a coin flip Oil rallies for a third straight week on tightness concerns US oil rig count rises by 2 to 515 The one-way move with oil prices has finally started to provide some underlying support for the Canadian dollar.  The Canadian currency however is starting to show some signs of exhaustion as short-term risks to the outlook grow.  The short-term crude demand ou
by Edward Moya
USD/CHF: Franc drops despite dollar's first weekly decline since mid-July
FOMC Rate Decision: Expected to maintain benchmark lending rate target at 5.25% to 5.5%, signaling one last rate increase SNB rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 2.00% Treasury yield curve shifts higher; 10-year yield rises 4.2bps to 4.328% The Swiss franc is not attracting any safe-haven flows as China shows more signs of stabilizing and with another round of US data/reports that support the soft landing narrative. USD/CHF Daily Chart The US dollar rally is approaching a conf
by Edward Moya
AUD/USD extends gains on strong Chinese data
Chinese industrial production, retail sales accelerate AUD/USD posts slight gains US to release manufacturing, consumer confidence data on Friday The Australian dollar has edged higher on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6452, up 0.18%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Euro takes a tumble after ECB's hike
ECB delivers 'dovish hike' EUR/USD sinks 0.80% on Thursday US to release manufacturing and consumer confidence reports on Friday The euro has steadied on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0665, up 0.20%. Euro slides on ECB's dovish hike  The European Central Bank's rate decision went right down to the wire on Wednesday.
by Kenneth Fisher
A resilient Chinese yuan is supporting Hong Kong equities and antipodean currencies
Yesterday’s significant US dollar up moves against the EUR, GBP, and CHF have not spread to the Chinese yuan and antipodean currencies. The choice of China's central bank, PBoC latest monetary policy easing measure via a cut on the required reserves ratio and upbeat retail sales and industrial production have led to a short-term “K-shaped performance” seen in the FX market. Short-term bullish momentum elements are sighted in AUD/USD and NZD/USD supported by a weakening USD/CNH. Despite the Euro
by Kelvin Wong
GBP/USD: Pound drops as eurozone stagflation risks could threaten UK economy
Markets leaning towards possibly one last BOE rate hike (implied rate peak of 5.527% at Feb 1st 2024 meeting) UK house prices tumble to lowest levels since 2009 Doji pattern possibly invalidated as bearish momentum remains The British pound is declining as expectations grow that for the BOE to deliver one last hike as the consumer is quickly weakening.  Stagflation risks are here as housing market concerns worsen and are now accompanied with a cautious consumer who is battling rising inflation
by Edward Moya
EUR/GBP - ECB delivers dovish final rate hike of the tightening cycle
ECB raises rates another 25 basis points but signals it may be the last New forecasts show stubborn inflation but weak growth Close above 55/89-day SMA band suggests breakout still valid The ECB raised interest rates again today, probably for the last time in the tightening cycle although it did leave itself some flexibility on that front. This certainly falls into the dovish hike category, with the ECB acknowledging inflation remains too high but also that growth is suffering.
by Craig Erlam
NZD/USD edges lower ahead of NZ Manufacturing PMI
US retail sales, PPI accelerates New Zealand to release Manufacturing PMI on Friday China to release retail sales and industrial production on Friday The New Zealand dollar is in negative territory on Thursday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5904 in the North American session, up 0.12%. Markets eye Manufacturing PMI, Chinese data New Zealand releases the Manufacturing PMI on Friday.
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD: ECB Hikes and euro falls as stagflation risks grow; Dollar strength extends after US retail sales data
Euro falls to the lowest levels since May after ECB hikes rates and delivers an abysmal growth forecasts, while upgrading 2023 and 2024 inflation outlooks Post ECB decision - October 26th ECB rate hike odds hover around 35.4% US retail sales remained strong on back-to-school spending and despite the extra energy costs at the pump The euro initially spiked after the ECB raised rates, but quickly tumbled after traders digested the ECB forecasts that suggest stagflation might be here
by Edward Moya
Australian dollar rises after strong jobs report
Australia posts strong job gains, but mostly part-time jobs US retail sales and PPI accelerate, core CPI eases The Australian dollar climbed higher after the solid Australian employment release but has pared these gains following the US retail sales and producer prices reports. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6440, up 0.28% Australia's labour market flexes its muscles Australian job creation sparkled in August.
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD - Buoyed by Australian jobs data as markets consider one more RBA hike
Australian employment increased by 64,900 in August (2,800 full-time, 62,100 part-time) Participation hits 67%, a new high Is a double bottom forming in AUDUSD? The Australian jobs data on Thursday was surprisingly good, with the number of new jobs created vastly exceeding expectations, although the bulk were in part-time roles. Participation also unexpectedly improved, hitting 67% for the first time which will be very welcomed by the central bank as it, and every other one around the world, s
by Craig Erlam
Euro calm ahead of key ECB rate decision
ECB rate decision expected to be a close call US to release retail sales and producer prices The euro is showing limited movement on Thursday, ahead of today's ECB rate decision. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0736, down 0.06%. Will she or won't she? All eyes are on ECB President Christine Lagarde, who will decide whether the ECB will increase rates by a quarter-point or hold off and take a pause after nine straight increases.
by Kenneth Fisher
Russell 2000 Technical: The weakest among the major US stock indices
The small-cap Russell 2000 which is considered as a better proxy of the US economy has just broken below its key 200-day moving average. It is the worst-performing major US benchmark stock index since August 2023. Its recent major downtrend phase from 5 November 2021 to 16 June 2022 started ahead of the other indices; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average.
by Kelvin Wong
Podcast - Wall Street ignores hot core inflation, still optimistic Fed likely done raising rates
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. They discuss Wall Street's reaction to a complicated US inflation report.  They also outline the state of the oil market and why it will remain tight going into the winter.  They also discuss the impact from the US bankruptcy Court for the district of Delaware decision to approve the liquidation of $3.4 billion in cryptos.
by Edward Moya
NZD/USD is close to a bottom; modest recovery is coming
RBNZ expects a contraction in Q3 and Q4, while Treasury sees growth continuing into Q3 (avoiding a recession) Monthly resistance hovers at 0.6015, September 1st high, while support resides at 0.5741, November 3rd low New Zealand overnight swap index price in a peak rate of 5.598% by the February 28th meeting The New Zealand dollar’s bearish trend that has firmly been in place since the middle of the summer appears to be running out of steam. All the China growth concerns and policy-driven reces
by Edward Moya
EUR/USD - Bearish developments ahead of the European Central Bank meeting
The ECB meeting on Thursday is not likely to be as straightforward as many have seemed over the last year. Even before we get to the new economic forecasts and what that means for monetary policy over the remainder of the year, there isn't much of a consensus in the markets around what the decision on interest rates will be tomorrow. Markets are pricing in a little more than a 60% chance of another rate hike - probably the final one - and almost a 40% chance of a pause.
by Craig Erlam
Euro edges lower on mixed US inflation, ECB decision next
US inflation rises but core inflation falls to two-year low All eyes on ECB rate decision on Thursday The euro is trading quietly on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0739, down 0.16%. The August US inflation report today was an interesting mix.
by Kenneth Fisher
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