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EUR/USD: ECB Hikes and euro falls as stagflation risks grow; Dollar strength extends after US retail sales data

Euro falls to the lowest levels since May after ECB hikes rates and delivers an abysmal growth forecasts, while upgrading 2023 and 2024 inflation outlooks Post ECB decision - October 26th ECB rate hike odds hover around 35.4% US retail sales remained strong on back-to-school spending and despite the extra energy costs at the pump The euro initially spiked after the ECB raised rates, but quickly tumbled after traders digested the ECB forecasts that suggest stagflation might be here

14-09-2023 09:14 GMT by Edward Moya

Australian dollar rises after strong jobs report

Australia posts strong job gains, but mostly part-time jobs US retail sales and PPI accelerate, core CPI eases The Australian dollar climbed higher after the solid Australian employment release but has pared these gains following the US retail sales and producer prices reports. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6440, up 0.28% Australia's labour market flexes its muscles Australian job creation sparkled in August.

14-09-2023 09:05 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD - Buoyed by Australian jobs data as markets consider one more RBA hike

Australian employment increased by 64,900 in August (2,800 full-time, 62,100 part-time) Participation hits 67%, a new high Is a double bottom forming in AUDUSD? The Australian jobs data on Thursday was surprisingly good, with the number of new jobs created vastly exceeding expectations, although the bulk were in part-time roles. Participation also unexpectedly improved, hitting 67% for the first time which will be very welcomed by the central bank as it, and every other one around the world, s

14-09-2023 06:50 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro calm ahead of key ECB rate decision

ECB rate decision expected to be a close call US to release retail sales and producer prices The euro is showing limited movement on Thursday, ahead of today's ECB rate decision. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0736, down 0.06%. Will she or won't she? All eyes are on ECB President Christine Lagarde, who will decide whether the ECB will increase rates by a quarter-point or hold off and take a pause after nine straight increases.

14-09-2023 04:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Russell 2000 Technical: The weakest among the major US stock indices

The small-cap Russell 2000 which is considered as a better proxy of the US economy has just broken below its key 200-day moving average. It is the worst-performing major US benchmark stock index since August 2023. Its recent major downtrend phase from 5 November 2021 to 16 June 2022 started ahead of the other indices; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average.

14-09-2023 00:19 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - Wall Street ignores hot core inflation, still optimistic Fed likely done raising rates

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. They discuss Wall Street's reaction to a complicated US inflation report. They also outline the state of the oil market and why it will remain tight going into the winter. They also discuss the impact from the US bankruptcy Court for the district of Delaware decision to approve the liquidation of $3.4 billion in cryptos.

13-09-2023 15:16 GMT by Edward Moya

NZD/USD is close to a bottom; modest recovery is coming

RBNZ expects a contraction in Q3 and Q4, while Treasury sees growth continuing into Q3 (avoiding a recession) Monthly resistance hovers at 0.6015, September 1st high, while support resides at 0.5741, November 3rd low New Zealand overnight swap index price in a peak rate of 5.598% by the February 28th meeting The New Zealand dollar’s bearish trend that has firmly been in place since the middle of the summer appears to be running out of steam. All the China growth concerns and policy-driven reces

13-09-2023 14:55 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD - Bearish developments ahead of the European Central Bank meeting

The ECB meeting on Thursday is not likely to be as straightforward as many have seemed over the last year. Even before we get to the new economic forecasts and what that means for monetary policy over the remainder of the year, there isn't much of a consensus in the markets around what the decision on interest rates will be tomorrow. Markets are pricing in a little more than a 60% chance of another rate hike - probably the final one - and almost a 40% chance of a pause.

13-09-2023 11:19 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro edges lower on mixed US inflation, ECB decision next

US inflation rises but core inflation falls to two-year low All eyes on ECB rate decision on Thursday The euro is trading quietly on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0739, down 0.16%. The August US inflation report today was an interesting mix.

13-09-2023 11:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Dollar wavers after US inflation report

September still a hold, while swap contracts suggest odds a 49.3% chance of a hike at the November 1st FOMC meeting Supercore inflation rate rises most since March Two-year Treasury drifts lower by 2.1 bps to 4.999% Inflation is not easing enough for the Fed to abandon their hawkish stance. The upside surprises might be small, but that should keep the hawks in control. Core inflation heated up for the first time in six months and that should have markets leaning towards one more Fed rate hike

13-09-2023 10:52 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD - Slides after GDP data as odds of BoE hold next week slightly improve

UK contracts faster than expected One-off factors largely behind the decline, BoE still expected to hike Major support being tested in cable The UK economy contracted faster than expected in July which is weighing on the pound this morning. GDP fell 0.5%, much faster than the 0.2% contraction that was expected, but as has been the case throughout this year, one-off factors played a big role. Strikes and the weather were largely blamed for the steep decline although some are clearly worried

13-09-2023 08:05 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD eyes US inflation, Aussie jobs report

US inflation expected to rise Australia releases employment data on Thursday The Australian dollar is lower on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6408, down 0.28%. US consumer inflation expected to increase The US releases the August inflation report later today.

13-09-2023 07:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound pares losses after soft GDP

UK GDP falls by 0.5% GBP/USD dips slightly lower The British pound has edged lower on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2472, down 0.17%.

13-09-2023 04:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY: USD supported as 10-year auction attracts highest yield since 2007

Treasury rates remain attractive: 2-year at 5.009%, 5-year at 4.428%, 10-year at 4.288%, and 30-year at 4.370% US inflation report expectations are for core readings to remain subdued, while headline jumps on rising gas prices. CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.2%; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.2% prior; core m/m: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; y/y: 4.3.%e v 4.7% prior Fed rate hike expectations are pricing in slightly a greater chance of more tightening this winter.

12-09-2023 13:45 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD: Canadian dollar gets a boost from surging oil prices

Canadian dollar rally runs out of steam ahead of US inflation report Brent crude rallies over $91, highest levels since November BOC rate hike expectations hover around 34.3% for October 25th meeting/ 17.5% for the December 6th meeting. The USD/CAD (a daily chart of which is shown) as of Tuesday (9/12/2023) has shown bullish correctiveness is accelerating on the break of key trendline support that has been since July 31st. If a bearish bias remains in place, downward momentum could target t

12-09-2023 12:51 GMT by Edward Moya

Brent crude - Oil rally accelerates higher after OPEC monthly report

Downside risks to the global economy remain Output restrictions from Saudi Arabia and Russia push oil market further into deficit Oil accelerates higher after brief consolidation Oil prices are creeping higher again on Tuesday, with Brent trading around $92 despite there being a mixed view on the economic outlook. As we heard from the European Commission yesterday, growth in the euro area is going to be relatively minor, with Germany struggling to avoid another recession.

12-09-2023 12:37 GMT by Craig Erlam

Australian dollar dips on soft consumer confidence

Australia's consumer confidence falls sharply Australia's business conditions improve Markets eye US inflation report on Wednesday The Australian dollar has edged lower on Tuesday after starting the week with massive gains. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6412, down 0.28%. Australia's consumer confidence slides Australian consumers are in a sour mood, as they feel the squeeze of high interest rates and stubborn inflation, which has led to heavily-debted households.

12-09-2023 09:54 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro dips on soft confidence data

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment worsens German ZEW Economic Sentiment improves but remains negative ECB rate decision up in the air and could go to the wire The euro started the week higher but has reversed directions on Tuesday and pared most of those gains. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0709, down 0.38%. German and eurozone confidence data indicate pessimism There hasn't been much to cheer about with regard to German and eurozone data lately, so it's no surprise tha

12-09-2023 08:58 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP - Another BoE hike likely as UK wage growth continues to rise

UK wage growth hits a record high at 8.5% including bonuses Unemployment remains at 4.3% as number of unemployed falls by 207,000 Sterling trades lower after the release The Bank of England may have little option but to raise rates again next week despite comments recently indicating the debate will be fairly balanced. The UK labour market figures offer something for everyone on the face of it but under the circumstances, BoE hawks will likely be more emboldened by the figures than the dov

12-09-2023 06:02 GMT by Craig Erlam

British pound loses ground after mixed jobs report

UK job growth slides, but wages hit record high GBP/USD slips below 1.25 The British pound is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2470, down 0.31%. UK jobs fall but wages rise Will the real UK labour market please stand up?

12-09-2023 05:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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