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Gold - Edging higher again ahead of the Fed decision

Will the Fed leave the door open to another hike? Dot plot key for expectations Gold nears key resistance ahead of decision The Fed meeting today is widely expected to end in an agreement not to hike interest rates this month with the key takeaway being whether they intend to again in this cycle. The ECB strongly hinted that it is probably done last week but I'm not convinced we'll get the same signal from the Fed and neither, it would appear, are markets. We have seen the odds of another hike

20-09-2023 12:30 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - BoE a coin toss after surprisingly encouraging inflation report

UK CPI 6.7% in August (7.1% expected, 6.8% in July) UK Core CPI 6.2% in August (6.8% expected, 6.9% in July) GBPUSD sees strong support near 1.23 Everyone at the Bank of England undoubtedly breathed a collective sigh of relief this morning, joining the rest of us, as inflation subsided much more than expected in August. Not only did the headline CPI rate not rise last month, as was expected, it actually fell slightly, with the core rate falling a lot. So despite the unfavorable base effect

20-09-2023 10:56 GMT by Craig Erlam

Aussie jumps as PBOC holds lending rates, hits 3-week high

China maintains one-year and five-year loan prime rates Australian dollar records strong gains The Australian dollar has posted strong gains on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6496, up 0.67% and its highest level in three weeks. China holds loans prime rates China's banks maintained their benchmark loan rates for September, a sign that the Chinese economy may be finding its footing after government support.

20-09-2023 09:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar pares gains after inflation rises

Canada's CPI rises in August Federal widely expected to hold rates The Canadian dollar is drifting in Wednesday's European session. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3432, down 0.11%. Canada's CPI jumps Canada's inflation rate rose sharply in July and the Canadian dollar rose as much as 0.70% on Tuesday and hit a 5-week high, but pared most of these gains.

20-09-2023 06:57 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

WTI Oil Technical: Bullish exhaustion sighted below US$93.80 per barrel key resistance

Recent 4 weeks of bullish movement in WTI crude oil has flashed out bullish exhaustion conditions. At the risk of shaping a bearish counter-trend/mean reversion movement within a major uptrend phase. Key resistance will be at US$93.80 with intermediate support zone of US$86.30/US$84.90 West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures)’s relentless medium-term uptrend move of +19% from the 24 August 2023 low of US$77.00/barrel to yesterday’s 19 September high of US$93.05/barrel has flashed out s

20-09-2023 02:04 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/CAD: Loonie rallies after hot inflation report make next BOC meeting a coin flip

BOC's three-month moving average surged by a full point to 4.5% Odd's for the October 25th BOC policy meeting jumped to 50.5% vs 25.1% yesterday The December 6th implied rate for Canada is at 5.233% (nearly fully prices in a quarter point rate rise) The Canadian dollar currency is surging against the euro after a hot inflation report raised concerns that the Bank of Canada (BOC) might not be done raising rates. Inflation was clearly boosted by the surge with gasoline prices, and that will get

19-09-2023 12:25 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD drifting with eye on inflation report

UK inflation expected to rise Fed widely expected to pause rate increases The British pound is trading quietly on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2397, up 0.10%. UK inflation expected to rise The Bank of England has had a rough time in its battle with inflation, to put it mildly.

19-09-2023 10:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Dollar wavers as the Fed's two-day policy begins

Modest dollar weakness is emerging as the Fed begins their two-day policy meeting; the euro is back above the 1.07 level, while the loonie is advancing below the 200-day SMA, and as the British pound rises above the 1.24 level. Positioning into the FOMC meeting is seeing rate options traders increase hedges, which means some traders are worried that the expected mid-year pivot could be in jeopardy. FOMC Inflation has come down a lot, but the Fed’s inflation isn’t quite over yet. The market

19-09-2023 08:25 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold - Cautious trading ahead of the Federal Reserve decision

Fed decision and forecasts on Wednesday could be very significant Is the Fed ready to replicate the ECB's explicitly dovish statement? Gold testing key resistance zone ahead of the meeting Gold is trading a little flat on Tuesday, perhaps showing a little caution ahead of the Fed meeting after a decent recovery in recent days. The yellow metal slipped back toward $1,900 amid resilient economic figures from the US that fed into fears of interest rates staying high for longer

19-09-2023 08:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD - Edges higher even as eurozone inflation is revised slightly lower

Headline HICP inflation falls to 5.2% (5.3% expected) while core HICP remains at 5.3% Further declines expected over the remainder of the year Divergence warns of potential exhaustion in the sell-off Eurozone headline inflation was slightly lower than initially reported in August while core was unrevised and is now modestly higher. Both are expected to fall going into next year and today's revisions are unlikely to alter the view of the ECB which has already decided that no more rate hikes will

19-09-2023 07:42 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD falls to one-month low

Canada's CPI expected to decline The Canadian dollar has extended its gains on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3441, down 0.33%.

19-09-2023 07:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar edges higher after RBA minutes

RBA minutes show that central bank considered rate hike China to announce loan prime rate decision on Wednesday The Australian dollar continues to trade quietly this week. In Tuesday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6456, up 0.30%. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of this month's meeting earlier today.

19-09-2023 06:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Podcast - Global stock markets are off to a shaky start ahead of the Fed's FOMC and "dot plot"

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss a pivotal week of major central banks' monetary policy decisions from the US Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. Challenging moments for several central bankers as they tried to combat elevated inflation from reemerging due to rapidly rising oil prices in the past two months albeit a potentially weaker demand environment in 2024 due to lag effects from higher interest rates in terms of levels and the speed of prior hikes.

19-09-2023 02:00 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Slipped back below 50-day moving average as Fed FOMC looms

Bullish tone dissipated last Friday, 15 September ex-post Arm’s IPO spectacularly first-day positive performance as the Nasdaq 100 had a weekly close below the 50-day moving average for the 4th time in the past six weeks. Rising market-based inflationary expectations in line with recent magnificent rallies seen in oil prices may cause the Fed to be less dovish on the timing to enact the first interest rate cut in 2024. 15,540 is the key short-term resistance to watch. This is a follow-up analy

19-09-2023 01:44 GMT by Kelvin Wong

The Impact of the UAW Strike on the FX Market

UAW President Fain on latest offer - “It’s definitely a no-go.” A prolonged UAW strike could disrupt the US growth exceptionalism trade The impact of the strike is not as disruptive but it could lead to a lengthier period of production disruption The three Detroit automakers and the United Auto Workers (UAW) union appear to be far from ending the strike that has now entered its fourth day. It is clear that American car manufacturers, Ford (F), GM (GM), and Stellantis (STLA) will be having high

18-09-2023 16:05 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD: Loonie rallies to best levels in a month as $100 crude risks grow

Bloomberg Survey: Chance of a recession happening over the next 12 months is 45% Canadian swaps pricing in 27.6% chance of a rate hike at October 25th meeting Oil rally stalls as Saudis deliver cautious outlook. FX traders were not expecting significant moves to start this trading week, which is filled with several key rate decisions. One of the standout trades for September has been the rally with oil prices. Throughout large parts of the pandemic, oil exporting countries haven’t seen the str

18-09-2023 14:27 GMT by Edward Moya

New Zealand dollar rises despite soft Services PMI

New Zealand Services PMI declines US manufacturing data climbs, consumer sentiment falls The New Zealand dollar has started the week in positive territory. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5918 in the North American session, up 0.34%. New Zealand's Services PMI declines New Zealand's Services PMI eased to 47.1 in August, down from 47.8 in July.

18-09-2023 13:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Brent Crude - Relentless oil rally showing no signs of exhaustion

Saudi and Russian cuts continue to drive the price higher Could a cooler economy push it back? Momentum indicators continue to support the rally This oil rally has been relentless and I'm not seeing any signs of exhaustion yet. A 15% rally in the space of around three weeks to trade at levels not seen since last November and not far from triple figures, it's been an impressive move and there could be more to come.

18-09-2023 12:50 GMT by Craig Erlam

FTSE 100 - Cautious start with an abundance of central bank meetings ahead

Final rate hikes in store for many central banks? UK100 breakout quickly pushed back Bullish signs despite initial setback

18-09-2023 12:26 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD eyes RBA minutes

The Australian dollar continues to drift as we start the new trading week. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6438, up 0.11%. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its minutes of this month's meeting on Tuesday.

18-09-2023 06:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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