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Podcast - Global stock markets are off to a shaky start ahead of the Fed's FOMC and "dot plot"

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss a pivotal week of major central banks' monetary policy decisions from the US Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. Challenging moments for several central bankers as they tried to combat elevated inflation from reemerging due to rapidly rising oil prices in the past two months albeit a potentially weaker demand environment in 2024 due to lag effects from higher interest rates in terms of levels and the speed of prior hikes.

19-09-2023 02:00 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Slipped back below 50-day moving average as Fed FOMC looms

Bullish tone dissipated last Friday, 15 September ex-post Arm’s IPO spectacularly first-day positive performance as the Nasdaq 100 had a weekly close below the 50-day moving average for the 4th time in the past six weeks. Rising market-based inflationary expectations in line with recent magnificent rallies seen in oil prices may cause the Fed to be less dovish on the timing to enact the first interest rate cut in 2024. 15,540 is the key short-term resistance to watch. This is a follow-up analy

19-09-2023 01:44 GMT by Kelvin Wong

The Impact of the UAW Strike on the FX Market

UAW President Fain on latest offer - “It’s definitely a no-go.” A prolonged UAW strike could disrupt the US growth exceptionalism trade The impact of the strike is not as disruptive but it could lead to a lengthier period of production disruption The three Detroit automakers and the United Auto Workers (UAW) union appear to be far from ending the strike that has now entered its fourth day. It is clear that American car manufacturers, Ford (F), GM (GM), and Stellantis (STLA) will be having high

18-09-2023 16:05 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD: Loonie rallies to best levels in a month as $100 crude risks grow

Bloomberg Survey: Chance of a recession happening over the next 12 months is 45% Canadian swaps pricing in 27.6% chance of a rate hike at October 25th meeting Oil rally stalls as Saudis deliver cautious outlook. FX traders were not expecting significant moves to start this trading week, which is filled with several key rate decisions. One of the standout trades for September has been the rally with oil prices. Throughout large parts of the pandemic, oil exporting countries haven’t seen the str

18-09-2023 14:27 GMT by Edward Moya

New Zealand dollar rises despite soft Services PMI

New Zealand Services PMI declines US manufacturing data climbs, consumer sentiment falls The New Zealand dollar has started the week in positive territory. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5918 in the North American session, up 0.34%. New Zealand's Services PMI declines New Zealand's Services PMI eased to 47.1 in August, down from 47.8 in July.

18-09-2023 13:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Brent Crude - Relentless oil rally showing no signs of exhaustion

Saudi and Russian cuts continue to drive the price higher Could a cooler economy push it back? Momentum indicators continue to support the rally This oil rally has been relentless and I'm not seeing any signs of exhaustion yet. A 15% rally in the space of around three weeks to trade at levels not seen since last November and not far from triple figures, it's been an impressive move and there could be more to come.

18-09-2023 12:50 GMT by Craig Erlam

FTSE 100 - Cautious start with an abundance of central bank meetings ahead

Final rate hikes in store for many central banks? UK100 breakout quickly pushed back Bullish signs despite initial setback

18-09-2023 12:26 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD eyes RBA minutes

The Australian dollar continues to drift as we start the new trading week. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6438, up 0.11%. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its minutes of this month's meeting on Tuesday.

18-09-2023 06:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/JPY Technical: Bulls may have reached a key bearish reversal zone

The 9-month rally seen in the EUR/JPY has reached a key major resistance zone of 158.55/159.80. Several technical elements have started to hint at signs of bullish exhaustion where the next potential movement may be a multi-day to multi-week bearish mean reversion/counter-trend within a major uptrend phase. The short-term resistance and support will be at 158.55 and 155.90 respectively. Since the start of the year, the EUR/JPY has rallied by 16.30% (2,239 pips) from its 2 January 2023 low of 13

18-09-2023 02:19 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/CAD: Loonie rides oil's bullish wave

US dollar weakness emerges on as inflation expectations fall to lowest levels in over two year; November Fed rate hike odds remain a coin flip Oil rallies for a third straight week on tightness concerns US oil rig count rises by 2 to 515 The one-way move with oil prices has finally started to provide some underlying support for the Canadian dollar. The Canadian currency however is starting to show some signs of exhaustion as short-term risks to the outlook grow. The short-term crude demand ou

15-09-2023 13:44 GMT by Edward Moya

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Video - EUR/USD tumbles after a surprise dovish ECB rate hike

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the impact of the ECB interest rate decision and press conference on EURUSD.

15-09-2023 13:11 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Podcast - The end of the tightening cycle? A volatile end to the week

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Trader Nick to review the recent data and ECB decision and look ahead to the many central bank meetings next week.

15-09-2023 13:04 GMT by Craig Erlam

Week Ahead - Fed, BoE, BoJ, SNB, SARB, CBRT and more to look forward to

Federal Reserve could be cautious as data continues to show economic resilience BoE may raise rates for the last time in this cycle BoJ eyed for more clues on interest rates after recent hints

15-09-2023 12:48 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CHF: Franc drops despite dollar's first weekly decline since mid-July

FOMC Rate Decision: Expected to maintain benchmark lending rate target at 5.25% to 5.5%, signaling one last rate increase SNB rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 2.00% Treasury yield curve shifts higher; 10-year yield rises 4.2bps to 4.328% The Swiss franc is not attracting any safe-haven flows as China shows more signs of stabilizing and with another round of US data/reports that support the soft landing narrative. USD/CHF Daily Chart The US dollar rally is approaching a conf

15-09-2023 12:07 GMT by Edward Moya

AUD/USD extends gains on strong Chinese data

Chinese industrial production, retail sales accelerate AUD/USD posts slight gains US to release manufacturing, consumer confidence data on Friday The Australian dollar has edged higher on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6452, up 0.18%.

15-09-2023 06:38 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro takes a tumble after ECB's hike

ECB delivers 'dovish hike' EUR/USD sinks 0.80% on Thursday US to release manufacturing and consumer confidence reports on Friday The euro has steadied on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0665, up 0.20%. Euro slides on ECB's dovish hike The European Central Bank's rate decision went right down to the wire on Wednesday.

15-09-2023 05:07 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

A resilient Chinese yuan is supporting Hong Kong equities and antipodean currencies

Yesterday’s significant US dollar up moves against the EUR, GBP, and CHF have not spread to the Chinese yuan and antipodean currencies. The choice of China's central bank, PBoC latest monetary policy easing measure via a cut on the required reserves ratio and upbeat retail sales and industrial production have led to a short-term “K-shaped performance” seen in the FX market. Short-term bullish momentum elements are sighted in AUD/USD and NZD/USD supported by a weakening USD/CNH. Despite the Euro

15-09-2023 04:05 GMT by Kelvin Wong

GBP/USD: Pound drops as eurozone stagflation risks could threaten UK economy

Markets leaning towards possibly one last BOE rate hike (implied rate peak of 5.527% at Feb 1st 2024 meeting) UK house prices tumble to lowest levels since 2009 Doji pattern possibly invalidated as bearish momentum remains The British pound is declining as expectations grow that for the BOE to deliver one last hike as the consumer is quickly weakening. Stagflation risks are here as housing market concerns worsen and are now accompanied with a cautious consumer who is battling rising inflation

14-09-2023 13:39 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/GBP - ECB delivers dovish final rate hike of the tightening cycle

ECB raises rates another 25 basis points but signals it may be the last New forecasts show stubborn inflation but weak growth Close above 55/89-day SMA band suggests breakout still valid The ECB raised interest rates again today, probably for the last time in the tightening cycle although it did leave itself some flexibility on that front. This certainly falls into the dovish hike category, with the ECB acknowledging inflation remains too high but also that growth is suffering.

14-09-2023 13:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD edges lower ahead of NZ Manufacturing PMI

US retail sales, PPI accelerates New Zealand to release Manufacturing PMI on Friday China to release retail sales and industrial production on Friday The New Zealand dollar is in negative territory on Thursday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5904 in the North American session, up 0.12%. Markets eye Manufacturing PMI, Chinese data New Zealand releases the Manufacturing PMI on Friday.

14-09-2023 10:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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