OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam gives his analysis of GBPUSD after the Fed and BoE interest rate announcements.
22-09-2023 13:02 GMT
by Craig Erlam
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OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joined Trader Nick and Jonny Hart to discuss the latest central bank interest rate decisions and Friday's PMIs.
22-09-2023 12:42 GMT
by Craig Erlam
UAW strikes expand strikes against GM an Stellantis
China considers easing foreign stake limits to attract foreign investment
US Flash PMIs show manufacturing rebounds while the composite reading fell to lowest levels since Jan 2023
BOJ didn't deliver much of anything. Ueda notes distance to removing negative rates hasn't moved greatly
The BOJ kept its monetary policy unchanged and refrained from delivering a clear sign of a shift in its policy stance, disappointing some traders who were expect
22-09-2023 11:51 GMT
by Edward Moya
It will be a busy week filled with a wide range of economic releases, with the focus falling on the consumer and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. August personal income is expected to rise given the strong labor market while spending cooled given the end of summer vacations. The bond market will pay extremely close attention to the next round of inflation readings.
22-09-2023 11:44 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Canada retail sales climb 2%
The Canadian dollar has posted losses on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3446, down 0.28%.
Canada's retail sales jump
Canada's retail sales rebounded in impressive fashion on Friday.
22-09-2023 09:32 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
UK retail sales improve, PMIs remain in contraction
The British pound is in negative territory after two days of losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2245, down 0.40%.
22-09-2023 07:14 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Bank of Japan maintains policy settings
Japan's core inflation unchanged at 3.1%
The Japanese yen is lower on Friday, erasing all of the gains seen a day earlier. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.34, up 0.52%.
Bank of Japan holds policy settings
There was some speculation in the market that the Bank of Japan might hint at some potential moves toward normalization at today's meeting, but those hopes were dashed as the central bank stuck to its guns.
22-09-2023 04:20 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
BoJ Governor Ueda's press conference is likely to be a pivotal moment in guiding market participants’ expectations toward monetary policy normalization away from negative interest rates.
Bullish exhaustion elements were sighted as the USD/JPY rally hit the 148.40/85 key medium-term resistance.
The 10-year JGB yield has continued to inch higher to a decade-high of 0.75% and August’s core-core Japan inflation rate remained elevated at 4.3% y/y, a 42-year high.
The “drumbeat” has increased for a p
22-09-2023 02:08 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
Japanese overnight index swaps show rates turning positive by the December 19th BOJ meeting
Prior to the BOJ decision, Japan CPI is expected to see base effects help trim inflation down to 3.0%
BIS: Yen real effective rate (against basket of currencies) falls to record low (dating back to the early 70s)
The Fed rate decision drove home the message that interest rates will be staying higher for longer. Now it is the BOJ's turn to show what they will do about the yen. Verbal interventio
21-09-2023 14:56 GMT
by Edward Moya
BOE officials vote 5-4 to keep rates on hold, first pause in almost 2-years
Traders are no longer fully pricing in anymore quarter point rate rises
Global bond market selloff saw Gilts rise 8.4bps to 4.292%
The British pound went into freefall mode after the BOE unexpectedly kept rates on hold. The outlook has dramatically changed in a few weeks and investors are concerned about growth prospects. BOE governor Bailey noted that it's premature to talk about rate cuts and right now it seems t
21-09-2023 14:20 GMT
by Edward Moya
Canada retail sales expected to rise
BoC releases summary of deliberations
The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3474, up 0.09%.
Canada's retail sales expected to improve
Canada wraps up the week with the retail sales report on Friday.
21-09-2023 13:05 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
SNB leaves its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%
Chair Jordan signals further hikes likely won't be necessary
USDCHF testing major resistance level after decision
The SNB refrained from raising interest rates earlier today, instead signaling that sufficient tightening has taken place in order to get inflation back to below 2% over the forecast horizon.
While inflation is already well below 2%, there was an expectation that the central bank would hike again.
21-09-2023 11:41 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Bank of England maintains interest rates
Federal Reserve sends 'higher for longer' message to the markets
The British pound has posted losses on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2287, down 0.46%.
21-09-2023 10:36 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
BoE leaves interest rates unchanged after 5-4 vote
MPC statement suggests the tightening cycle may be over
GBPUSD breaks major support after BoE decision
We're certainly seeing plenty of different approaches from central banks as they wrap up their tightening cycles, with the Bank of England today surprising with a hold while not adopting a particularly hawkish tone alongside it.
That said, more important than the tone is just how close the vote was, with five policymakers - including Gove
21-09-2023 09:57 GMT
by Craig Erlam
SNB surprises and holds interest rates
Fed delivers a 'hawkish hold'
The Swiss franc has fallen sharply on Thursday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9060, up 0.80%.
21-09-2023 08:38 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. They discuss Wall Street's reaction to the FOMC decision.
20-09-2023 23:14 GMT
by Edward Moya
Fed kept rates steady; target range remained at 5.25%-5.50% (as expected)
Dot plots showed 12 of 19 expected policymakers (12 also called for one more hike in June)
Fed projections saw rate cut bets halved from June's 5.10% to 4.60%
US stocks dropped and king dollar returned after the Fed kept rates unchanged and signaled one more rate hike will happen this year. The US economy is too strong and this rate hiking cycle will last a lot longer than Wall Street wants.
20-09-2023 15:15 GMT
by Edward Moya
Fed expected to pause, focus on dot plots
The Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In Wednesday's North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.66, down 0.15%.
Fed widely expected to pause
If the Federal Reserve does not pause rate hikes at today's meeting, it would be a massive surprise.
20-09-2023 13:21 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Will the Fed leave the door open to another hike?
Dot plot key for expectations
Gold nears key resistance ahead of decision
The Fed meeting today is widely expected to end in an agreement not to hike interest rates this month with the key takeaway being whether they intend to again in this cycle.
The ECB strongly hinted that it is probably done last week but I'm not convinced we'll get the same signal from the Fed and neither, it would appear, are markets.
We have seen the odds of another hike
20-09-2023 12:30 GMT
by Craig Erlam
UK CPI 6.7% in August (7.1% expected, 6.8% in July)
UK Core CPI 6.2% in August (6.8% expected, 6.9% in July)
GBPUSD sees strong support near 1.23
Everyone at the Bank of England undoubtedly breathed a collective sigh of relief this morning, joining the rest of us, as inflation subsided much more than expected in August.
Not only did the headline CPI rate not rise last month, as was expected, it actually fell slightly, with the core rate falling a lot. So despite the unfavorable base effect
20-09-2023 10:56 GMT
by Craig Erlam