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Australian dollar steadies, retail sales dip

Australia's retail sales decelerate to 0.2% The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Thursday after three straight daily losses in which AUD/USD lost over 1% and hit an 11-month low. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6367, up 0.23%. Australia retail sales rise slightly Australian consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, has been showing cracks.

28-09-2023 04:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP: Pound firms up as BOE rate hike odds grow

German Institutes see 2025 GDP at 1.5% Germany GfK consumer confidence hit lowest since Apr 2023 Euro Zone M3 money supply posts worst drop on record FX traders appear convinced that the ECB is done hiking and that the BOE might have to stay hawkish a little while longer. Rate hike odds for the BOE at the November 2nd meeting have edged higher to 40.6%, while the implied rate is seen peaking at 5.398% in March. The ECB is likely done hiking but rate cuts probably won't be happening until

27-09-2023 15:25 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD: Dethroning King Dollar will be hard

The dollar was weaker and US stocks attempted to rally after the bond market selloff started to show some signs of exhaustion. Last night, the 10-year Treasury yield rally stalled out after its second attempt failed at breaking above 4.56%. A little calm in the bond market gave risky assets a modest boost, but that should be short-lived. A positive surprise with durable goods data was initially viewed as good news for the economy and possibly stocks, but good news is actually bad news for equ

27-09-2023 12:44 GMT by Edward Moya

XAU/USD - Hawkish Fed commentary pushes gold back below $1,900

Hawkish Fed speak continues to pressure gold Two key technical support levels broken today Gold trading at a six month low Gold continues to drift lower after breaking below $1,900, a key area of support in recent weeks. The yellow metal had been range-bound between $1,900 and $1,950 around the major central bank meetings this month and it would appear a hawkish Fed when others have adopted a more neutral tone has pushed it over the edge. The dollar has been charging higher over the last week

27-09-2023 12:20 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Oil on the rise again after taking a small breather

Price breaks higher after brief consolidation Oil market remains tight, supporting prices Momentum indicators may be key near $100 After a week of consolidation, oil prices are on the rise again on Wednesday ahead of the release of inventory data from EIA. The API release yesterday may have surprised some, recording an increase of 1.586 million barrels, a lot more than the 0.7 million decline that's expected today. But it won't alter the view that the market is extremely tight following a numb

27-09-2023 11:38 GMT by Craig Erlam

New Zealand dollar edges lower, business confidence next

New Zealand Business Confidence expected to rebound The New Zealand dollar is slightly lower on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5937 in the North American session, down 0.13%. The US dollar has been on a tear against the major currencies.

27-09-2023 11:08 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Dow - Steady as the dust settles on a massive week of central bank meetings

Is Fed speak weighing on market sentiment? Uncertainty could mount if US government shuts down US30 breaks below 200-day SMA Equity markets are pretty flat in the middle of the week, struggling to pick themselves up off the floor as investors worry about higher for longer interest rates and the economy. Last week was action-packed and it seems investors are still piecing it all together in the absence of much else happening. While I often refer to them as eternal optimists, when faced with the

27-09-2023 11:01 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD extends losses, eyes German inflation

German consumer confidence decelerates German inflation expected to fall to 4.6% The euro has extended its losses on Wednesday and has declined close to 1% this week. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0552, down 0.18%. Germany has traditionally been the powerhouse of Europe but finds itself lagging in the rear, with a struggling economy and high inflation.

27-09-2023 09:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie's decline continues after inflation report

Australia's inflation rises to 5.2% The Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday and has dropped 1% on the week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6374, down 0.35%. The Australian dollar finds itself perilously close to 0.6357, an 11-month low. Australian inflation rises due to higher fuel costs Australia's inflation rate rose 5.2% y/y in August, up from 4.9% y/y in July and matching the consensus estimate.

27-09-2023 06:22 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

WTI Oil Technical: Continuation of potential impulsive up move within a major uptrend

The recent minor corrective pull-back of -4.7% from its 19 September 2023 high of US$93.05 is likely to have ended. Bullish reversal candlestick, a daily “Hammer” sighted after a retest on its upward-sloping 20-day moving average. Key short-term support to watch will be at US$90.30, the pull-back of the former minor “pennant” range resistance. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Bullish exhaustion sighted below US$93.80 per barrel key resistance” published on 2

27-09-2023 01:58 GMT by Kelvin Wong

GBP/USD: Oversold conditions remain. A potential bottom remains elusive; Senate proposes stopgap solution

UK Mortgage approvals expected to continue to drop No major revisions expected with Q2 GDP report BOE overnight index swaps price in a peak rate of 5.369% at the Feb 1st meeting US Government Shutdown risk remains as Senate negotiators propose stopgap solution The British pound looks like it is heading for a further breakdown as dollar strength appears to be resuming. Technical traders trying to find a bottom are getting frustrated as oversold conditions deepen and on doubts that a DeMark Buy

26-09-2023 17:33 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CHF: Franc suffers longest losing streak since 1975

Franc posts 11th straight daily decline versus the dollar US consumer confidence falls to 4-month low 10-year Treasury yield rises 1.2 bps to 4.546% The relief rally was not meant to be for risky assets, but that didn't seem to matter for USD/CHF. The US dollar is rallying after consumer confidence fell to 4-month low, new home sales had their largest drop in almost a year, while S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller reported home prices rose to a record high. The economy sure looks like it might break,

26-09-2023 16:24 GMT by Edward Moya

AUD/USD extends losses, CPI looms

Australian CPI expected to rise to 5.2% The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6405, down 0.28%. Australian CPI expected to rise Australia releases the CPI report on Wednesday.

26-09-2023 13:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Brent Crude - Oil pares gains in risk-averse trade

Potential profit-taking after immense rally Economic pessimism may weigh in the future Bullish flag formation may suggest there's more to come Risk aversion in markets may be weighing on oil prices a little, especially if economic fears are fueling that sentiment. Oil prices have rallied strongly on the back of supply restrictions and the economy failing to live up to expectations was always going to be one of the primary counter-risks for the price.

26-09-2023 11:21 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro slips to 6.5-month low, Lagarde dismisses rate cuts

ECB's Lagarde says rates to stay restrictive for as long as needed The euro is unchanged on Tuesday, trading at 1.0593. Euro slips despite Lagarde's hawkish remarks ECB President Lagarde said on Monday that interest rates would be "set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary", adding that the ECB was in a long race in the battle to bring down inflation to the 2% target. Lagarde stated categorically that the Governing Council was not considering rate cuts. At first glance,

26-09-2023 10:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen falls to 11-month low, is 150 next?

BoJ Ueda says 2% inflation target not yet achieved USD/JPY pushes above 149 The Japanese yen is unchanged on Tuesday, trading at 148.85. BOJ's Ueda says monetary policy to continue The Bank of Japan maintained its policy settings on Friday, which really should not have been all that surprising, given the dovish messages that BoJ Governor Ueda and other BoJ members have been sending out for weeks. The BoJ does not appear to be in any rush to phase out its ultra-loose stimulus, given the weakne

26-09-2023 05:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Podcast - China Evergrande liquidation risk spooked Asian equities and US PCE inflation data on the radar next

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss the fallout seen in Asian benchmark stock indices triggered by another round of liquid crunch being spiraled into China's property market. This latest round of negative feedback loop has been reinforced by China Evergrande's liquid risk as a key meeting with creditors to discuss its overdue bond payments restructuring plan has been scrapped by the company without clear explanations.

26-09-2023 02:21 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/JPY: Intervention risks grow as yen falls to 11-month low

30-year Treasury yield rose 12bps to 4.645% vs 15.19% which was the peak at 1981. Bloomberg dollar index has best rally in three weeks, which is also highest level since December BOJ Governor Ueda stands on dovish ground, yen free to fall; PM Kishida delivers plan to ease inflation pain Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and his deputy governor Uchida are committed to their ultra-easy policy. Governor Ueda noted that there was "very high uncertainty" over whether companies would continue to inc

25-09-2023 12:38 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD: Dollar rallies alongside surging yields

Fed rate hike expectations for November 1st stand at 18.6% vs 30% from a week ago Germany IFO Business climate declines for a fifth straight month 10-year Treasury yield surges 7.7bps to 4.511% The euro softened earlier after an uninspiring German business outlook suggests the eurozone’s largest economy still has a rough road ahead. This was the fifth straight month of declines for Germany's business confidence. Investors focused on the expectations survey’s slight miss.

25-09-2023 10:55 GMT by Edward Moya

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GBP/JPY Technical: At the risk of multi-week bearish mean reversion

The current major uptrend phase of GBP/JPY has almost reached a key inflection/resistance level of 187.30. The weekly RSI momentum indicator has flashed out bearish conditions that advocate a potential multi-week bearish mean reversion/counter-trend movement. 50 is the key short-term resistance to watch with intermediate supports coming in at 180.60 and 179.20. Bulls may have hit a major roadblock Fig 1: GBP/JPY major trend as of 25 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The

25-09-2023 02:13 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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