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EUR/CHF: Swiss franc looking like a key safe-haven trade for Europe
European stocks drop to their lowest level in more than six months Swiss franc stronger against most European counterparts (NOK and SEK firmer) Overnight index swaps still not A global bond market selloff European equities sharply lower and triggered some safe-haven flows towards the Swiss franc.  The EUR/CHF daily chart shows prices have tentatively fallen towards the lowest levels since September 21st.  Risk aversion is clearly in place given US lawmakers were able to tentatively avoid a shut
02-10-2023 15:01 GMT by Edward Moya
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USD/JPY: Waiting on the BOJ to do something meaningful
Japanese Officials jawboning unable to upend dollar rally overnight US 10-year real yields approaches 15-year high Fed rate hike odds back over 50% for a hike by year end Over the weekend, Congress opted to kick the can down the road, passing a short-term stopgap funding bill.  This measure means the government will remain open until November 17th, providing natural disaster aid but not additional funding for Ukraine or border security. With a temporary funding solution in place, Wall Stree
02-10-2023 14:03 GMT by Edward Moya
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Japanese yen edges lower after hawkish BoJ minutes
USD/JPY on doorstep of 150 line BoJ says it will buy more JGBs BoJ's minutes indicate 2% sustainable inflation may be close The Japanese yen has started the week with slight losses. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.80, up 0.29%. BoJ says it will buy more JGBs The Bank of Japan said on Monday that it will conduct an unscheduled purchase of Japanese government bonds(JGBs) on Wednesday.
02-10-2023 10:00 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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AUD/USD falls ahead of RBA meeting
Australian dollar falls below 0.6400 MI Inflation Gauge comes in at 0% RBA expected to hold rates at 4.1% The Australian dollar has started the week considerably lower. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6397, down 0.55%. MI Inflation Gauge comes in at 0% The Melbourne Institute's Inflation Gauge was flat in September after 12 straight months of increases.
02-10-2023 07:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY rallied to an 11-month high despite a rosy Q3 Tankan report and verbal interventions
Upbeat longer-term inflationary expectations and business sentiment of large Japanese corporations could not derail the relentless up move of USD/JPY. Momentum factor and further potential 10-year US Treasury/JGB yield spread premium are supporting this current bout of rallies seen in USD/JPY at least in the short-term. The key resistances to watch will be at 150.00/150.30 and 150.80/150.90. The bulls of USD/JPY have continued to charge forward and broke above last week's high of 147.71 in toda
02-10-2023 06:29 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/CAD: Loonie weakens after GDP miss and on oil profit-taking
Canadian economy struggles to find growth Oil price rally exhausted as $100 price remains elusive GDP sends BOC rate hike odds down; October 25th meeting at 30.4% vs yesterday's 42.2% USD/CAD rises to a two-week high after loonie bulls disappeared after a disappointing July GDP report.  It looks like Wall Street was a bit too optimistic on the Canadian economy and expectations for August is for a similar reading. The Canadian economic outlook is struggling as the impact from Bank of Canada's ag
29-09-2023 16:04 GMT by Edward Moya
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USD/JPY: Cooling inflation allows dollar rally to pause
US core inflation and personal spending softens Bond yields pare earlier losses; 10-year yield now only down 1bps to 4.565% US near-term inflation expectation drop to lowest levels since 2021 After a disastrous week, month, and quarter as the bond market selloff would not relent, US dollar long positions got closed out after further evidence supported the case that the Fed might be done hiking rates. ​ The latest round of economic data that showed spending and core inflation cooled.
29-09-2023 14:52 GMT by Edward Moya
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DAX - Rebounds amid a major boost for the ECB but there's still a long way to go
Eurozone HICP inflation y/y 4.3% in September (5.2% in August), core HICP 4.5% (5.3%) US PCE inflation y/y 3.5% in August (3.4% in July), core PCE 3.9% (4.3%) DAX rebounds but remains below key technical level European stock markets are performing well at the end of the week after spending much of it in the red on the back of fresh interest rate concerns. A determination to drive home the message that interest rates will stay higher for longer appears to have finally wobbled investors
29-09-2023 10:07 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Week Ahead - US government shutdown, RBA and RBNZ rate decisions, weekend data
This will be a busy week in the US with a looming government shutdown, an expanding UAW strike, a lot of Fed speak, and an NFP report that could show hiring fell to the lowest levels since early 2021.  The September jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed from a 187,000 pace to 170,000.  Despite the loosening of the labor market, the unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 3.7%, and wage pressures are expected to increase on a monthly basis from 0.2% to a 0.3% pace.
29-09-2023 08:17 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Canadian dollar extends gains ahead of GDP
Canada's GDP expected to improve US PCE Core Prices projected to stay steady at 0.2% The Canadian dollar has posted losses on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3446, down 0.28%. Canada's GDP expected to post 0.1% gain I have noticed the phrase "US exceptionalism" being bandied about lately.
29-09-2023 06:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Japanese yen gains ground, Tokyo Core CPI eases
Tokyo Core CPI eases to 2.5% Japanese yen rises The Japanese yen is showing some life following a nasty slide earlier in the week, which saw it decline around 1.5% and come close to the symbolic 150 line. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.72, down 0.40%. Tokyo Core CPI falls to 2.5% Japan is experiencing higher inflation than it has known for decades, although it remains much lower than in other major economies. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.5% y/y in Sept
29-09-2023 04:08 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential counter trend rebound as 10-year UST yield retreated
The 10-week decline of the Nasdaq 100 has almost reached a key medium-term support of 14,300. The rising 10-year US Treasury yield is a significant factor that led to the recent decline of the Nasdaq 100. A daily bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick sighted yesterday on the 10-year US Treasury yield may trigger a counter trend rebound in the Nasdaq 100. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Slipped back below 50-day moving average as Fed FOMC looms” published
29-09-2023 01:22 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Euro gains ground, German inflation slides
German inflation falls sharply US GDP expands 2.1%, unemployment claims tick higher The euro continues to show volatility. EUR/USD has jumped 0.53% on Thursday, erasing almost all of the losses sustained on Thursday.
28-09-2023 13:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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AUD/USD: Positioned nicely to rebound if dollar weakness persists
US-China tensions might ease if Xi visits the US China's PMI data expected to show economy is stabilizing Despite property market crisis, iron ore demand is expected to remain strong The Australian dollar has been stabilizing over the past month around the 0.6340 level, which means if king dollar is ready for a pullback, a rally towards 0.6500 could unfold.  The key for the Australian dollar might be if the outlook for China improves.  The property crisis isn't going away anytime soon, but we c
28-09-2023 13:07 GMT by Edward Moya
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EUR/USD: Euro rallies as German inflation falls to lowest levels since before Ukraine War
German HICP inflation declined sharply in September Italian-German 10-year yield spread tested 200 bps Dollar profit-taking begins after softer personal consumption data The king dollar trade has run out of steam. It took cooling German inflation and a global bond market selloff  that attracted foreign investment back into Europe.  The surge in European bond yields is actually bad news for the economy but should still provide some short-term relief for the euro. Italian debt fears The 10-year
28-09-2023 12:15 GMT by Edward Moya
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Brent Crude - Is the oil rally running on fumes as Brent nears $100?
Oil rally is not a repeat of last year $100 a major psychological level Divergences appearing Oil prices are increasingly hitting the headlines, with Brent crude coming within five dollars of triple figures which will naturally bring back bad memories of last year's price surge. It is worth noting that, while oil could top $100, this is very different from 2022 and is largely being driven by OPEC+ tipping the market into deficit which is unlikely to be the long-term plan.
28-09-2023 12:08 GMT by Craig Erlam
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