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GBP/USD: Oversold conditions remain. A potential bottom remains elusive; Senate proposes stopgap solution
UK Mortgage approvals expected to continue to drop No major revisions expected with Q2 GDP report BOE overnight index swaps price in a peak rate of 5.369% at the Feb 1st meeting US Government Shutdown risk remains as Senate negotiators propose stopgap solution The British pound looks like it is heading for a further breakdown as dollar strength appears to be resuming.  Technical traders trying to find a bottom are getting frustrated as oversold conditions deepen and on doubts that a DeMark Buy
26-09-2023 17:33 GMT by Edward Moya
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USD/CHF: Franc suffers longest losing streak since 1975
Franc posts 11th straight daily decline versus the dollar US consumer confidence falls to 4-month low 10-year Treasury yield rises 1.2 bps to 4.546% The relief rally was not meant to be for risky assets, but that didn't seem to matter for USD/CHF.  The US dollar is rallying after consumer confidence fell to 4-month low, new home sales had their largest drop in almost a year, while S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller reported home prices rose to a record high. The economy sure looks like it might break,
26-09-2023 16:24 GMT by Edward Moya
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AUD/USD extends losses, CPI looms
Australian CPI expected to rise to 5.2% The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6405, down 0.28%. Australian CPI expected to rise Australia releases the CPI report on Wednesday.
26-09-2023 13:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Brent Crude - Oil pares gains in risk-averse trade
Potential profit-taking after immense rally Economic pessimism may weigh in the future Bullish flag formation may suggest there's more to come Risk aversion in markets may be weighing on oil prices a little, especially if economic fears are fueling that sentiment. Oil prices have rallied strongly on the back of supply restrictions and the economy failing to live up to expectations was always going to be one of the primary counter-risks for the price.
26-09-2023 11:21 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Euro slips to 6.5-month low, Lagarde dismisses rate cuts
ECB's Lagarde says rates to stay restrictive for as long as needed The euro is unchanged on Tuesday, trading at 1.0593. Euro slips despite Lagarde's hawkish remarks ECB President Lagarde said on Monday that interest rates would be "set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary", adding that the ECB was in a long race in the battle to bring down inflation to the 2% target. Lagarde stated categorically that the Governing Council was not considering rate cuts. At first glance,
26-09-2023 10:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Yen falls to 11-month low, is 150 next?
BoJ Ueda says 2% inflation target not yet achieved USD/JPY pushes above 149 The Japanese yen is unchanged on Tuesday, trading at 148.85. BOJ's Ueda says monetary policy to continue The Bank of Japan maintained its policy settings on Friday, which really should not have been all that surprising, given the dovish messages that BoJ Governor Ueda and other BoJ members have been sending out for weeks. The BoJ does not appear to be in any rush to phase out its ultra-loose stimulus, given the weakne
26-09-2023 05:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Podcast - China Evergrande liquidation risk spooked Asian equities and US PCE inflation data on the radar next
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss the fallout seen in Asian benchmark stock indices triggered by another round of liquid crunch being spiraled into China's property market. This latest round of negative feedback loop has been reinforced by China Evergrande's liquid risk as a key meeting with creditors to discuss its overdue bond payments restructuring plan has been scrapped by the company without clear explanations.
26-09-2023 02:21 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/JPY: Intervention risks grow as yen falls to 11-month low
30-year Treasury yield rose 12bps to 4.645% vs 15.19% which was the peak at 1981. Bloomberg dollar index has best rally in three weeks, which is also highest level since December BOJ Governor Ueda stands on dovish ground, yen free to fall; PM Kishida delivers plan to ease inflation pain Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and his deputy governor Uchida are committed to their ultra-easy policy.  Governor Ueda noted that there was "very high uncertainty" over whether companies would continue to inc
25-09-2023 12:38 GMT by Edward Moya
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EUR/USD: Dollar rallies alongside surging yields
Fed rate hike expectations for November 1st stand at 18.6% vs 30% from a week ago Germany IFO Business climate declines for a fifth straight month 10-year Treasury yield surges 7.7bps to 4.511% The euro softened earlier after an uninspiring German business outlook suggests the eurozone’s largest economy still has a rough road ahead.  This was the fifth straight month of declines for Germany's business confidence. Investors focused on the expectations survey’s slight miss.
25-09-2023 10:55 GMT by Edward Moya
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GBP/JPY Technical: At the risk of multi-week bearish mean reversion
The current major uptrend phase of GBP/JPY has almost reached a key inflection/resistance level of 187.30. The weekly RSI momentum indicator has flashed out bearish conditions that advocate a potential multi-week bearish mean reversion/counter-trend movement. 50 is the key short-term resistance to watch with intermediate supports coming in at 180.60 and 179.20. Bulls may have hit a major roadblock Fig 1: GBP/JPY major trend as of 25 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The
25-09-2023 02:13 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/JPY: King dollar trend has been your friend
UAW strikes expand strikes against GM an Stellantis China considers easing foreign stake limits to attract foreign investment US Flash PMIs show manufacturing rebounds while the composite reading fell to lowest levels since Jan 2023 BOJ didn't deliver much of anything. Ueda notes distance to removing negative rates hasn't moved greatly The BOJ kept its monetary policy unchanged and refrained from delivering a clear sign of a shift in its policy stance, disappointing some traders who were expect
22-09-2023 11:51 GMT by Edward Moya
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Week Ahead - US and eurozone inflation, Fed speak, Bank of Japan minutes
It will be a busy week filled with a wide range of economic releases, with the focus falling on the consumer and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.  August personal income is expected to rise given the strong labor market while spending cooled given the end of summer vacations.  The bond market will pay extremely close attention to the next round of inflation readings.
22-09-2023 11:44 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Japanese yen dips as BoJ holds the course
Bank of Japan maintains policy settings Japan's core inflation unchanged at 3.1% The Japanese yen is lower on Friday, erasing all of the gains seen a day earlier. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.34, up 0.52%. Bank of Japan holds policy settings There was some speculation in the market that the Bank of Japan might hint at some potential moves toward normalization at today's meeting, but those hopes were dashed as the central bank stuck to its guns.
22-09-2023 04:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY Technical: 148.40/85 reached. What’s next?
BoJ Governor Ueda's press conference is likely to be a pivotal moment in guiding market participants’ expectations toward monetary policy normalization away from negative interest rates. Bullish exhaustion elements were sighted as the USD/JPY rally hit the 148.40/85 key medium-term resistance. The 10-year JGB yield has continued to inch higher to a decade-high of 0.75% and August’s core-core Japan inflation rate remained elevated at 4.3% y/y, a 42-year high. The “drumbeat” has increased for a p
22-09-2023 02:08 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/JPY: Yen modestly stronger ahead of BOJ
Japanese overnight index swaps show rates turning positive by the December 19th BOJ meeting Prior to the BOJ decision, Japan CPI is expected to see base effects help trim inflation down to 3.0% BIS: Yen real effective rate (against basket of currencies) falls to record low (dating back to the early 70s) The Fed rate decision drove home the message that interest rates will be staying higher for longer.  Now it is the BOJ's turn to show what they will do about the yen.  Verbal interventio
21-09-2023 14:56 GMT by Edward Moya
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EUR/GBP: Pound falls to 2-month low against euro as BOE rate hiking cycle likely over
BOE officials vote 5-4 to keep rates on hold, first pause in almost 2-years Traders are no longer fully pricing in anymore quarter point rate rises Global bond market selloff saw Gilts rise 8.4bps to 4.292% The British pound went into freefall mode after the BOE unexpectedly kept rates on hold.  The outlook has dramatically changed in a few weeks and investors are concerned about growth prospects. BOE governor Bailey noted that it's premature to talk about rate cuts and right now it seems t
21-09-2023 14:20 GMT by Edward Moya
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