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USD/JPY Technical: Retesting the 20-day moving average support with bearish momentum
USD/JPY Technical: Retesting the 20-day moving average support with bearish momentum Key technical elements have turned bearish for USD/JPY ex-post suspected BoJ’s invention. USD/JPY bulls’ first defence line at the 20-day moving average acting as a 148.25 support looks vulnerable. The next immediate support to watch will be at 146.10/146.00 This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY rallied to an 11-month high despite a rosy Q3 Tankan report and verbal interventions” published
05-10-2023 01:45 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Brent Crude - Oil slips as OPEC+ looks to maintain cuts for now
OPEC+ expected to leave output unchanged until the end of the year Saudi Arabia and Russia are also expected to leave restrictions unchanged Brent falls more than 5% Oil prices have fallen more than 3% today as OPEC+ looks set to leave their output targets unchanged, while Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to additional cuts until the end of the year. That may not sound particularly bearish for oil but in doing nothing, the group is leaving the door open to output increases f
04-10-2023 16:29 GMT by Craig Erlam
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USD/CAD: Loonie weakness extends as oil prices drop
USD/CAD has been hit with heightened volatility given bond market chaos and the big moves in the oil market.  The dollar rally has paused against euro and yen, but it continues against commodity currencies.  Demand for all commodities are taking a hit here as surging Treasury yields are driving global growth concerns. Price action on the USD/CAD daily chart is showing the recent bullish rally is tentatively breaking above key trendline resistance that has been in place since the start of the pan
04-10-2023 12:52 GMT by Edward Moya
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EUR/USD higher after mixed European releases
German Services PMI rises slightly Eurozone retail sales decline 1.2% The euro has stabilized on Wednesday and is in positive territory. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0519, up 0.50%. Germany's Services PMI expands slightly Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone.
04-10-2023 12:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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EUR/USD: Dollar follows bond market and hits ludicrous speed
ADP report shows job weakness occurred in September ISM Services report shows largest part of economy remains resilient Yields remain near session lows Wall Street is waking up to more FX and bond market chaos.  Overnight, the 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5%, the highest level since 2007.  With hedge funds aggressively riding this bond market selloff, Treasury yields blew right by ‘ridiculous’ speed and entered ‘ludicrous speed’. Heading into the NY open, the 30-year Treasury yield has rev
04-10-2023 10:24 GMT by Edward Moya
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Japanese yen spikes after breaching 150
USD/JPY breaches 150 but spikes lower BoJ may have intervened but no confirmation The Japanese yen is unchanged on Wednesday, trading at 149.05 in the European session. This calmness is deceptive, however, as the yen had a massive spike on Tuesday after it breached the key 150 level. Did BoJ intervene? The Bank of Japan won't win any awards for transparency and has a knack of making significant moves that catch the market off guard.
04-10-2023 06:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Nikkei 225 may see a silver lining from Japanese banks
The current second-half performance of the Nikkei 225 is considered wobbly as it recorded a Q3 loss of -4% and underperformed slightly against the US S&P 500. The recent lacklustre performance of the Nikkei 225 has been impacted significantly by the performance of the S&P 500 rather than JPY movement. In the past three months, Japanese banks have offered a silver lining in a bearish Nikkei 225 environment as the TOPIX Banks sector outperformed with a positive return of +13.22% Watch the 200-day
04-10-2023 03:15 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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NZ dollar sliding, RBNZ expected to pause
New Zealand dollar slides for a second successive day The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower for a second straight day. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5904, down 0.71%. It has been an awful week so far for the New Zealand dollar, which is down 1.55%.
03-10-2023 10:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Gold - Continues to struggle amid hawkish central bank warnings
Gold eyeing a seventh consecutive decline? JOLTS job openings reinforce the view of a strong labor market Major technical support below if sell-off continues Gold is on course to extend its losing run to seven sessions, with the yellow metal down around half a percent following the US JOLTS report. Rising bond yields have hammered gold prices recently which have fallen from $1,900 to near $1,800 remarkably fast.
03-10-2023 10:34 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Ethereum: Unable to rally as new future ETFs volumes disappoint
Cryptos struggle as relentless Treasury selloff continues; 10-year yield rises 5.2bps to 4.731% Proshares Ethereum ETF (EETH) traded only 21,000 shares VanEck’s Ethereum Strategy ETF (EFUT) traded only 29,000 shares Over the past several months the focus in the cryptoverse has been on whether the SEC will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. Hampered by SEC delays, sentiment for cryptos have struggled immensely, especially given the chaos sparked by the bond market. Sentiment could be improving given t
03-10-2023 07:50 GMT by Edward Moya
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Australian dollar sinks as RBA hold rates
RBA holds rates at 4.1% AUD/USD declines 1% The Australian dollar is down sharply lower on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6295, down 1.05%. RBA pauses rates for fourth straight time Another Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, another pause.
03-10-2023 07:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Swiss franc slips as inflation falls
Swiss inflation declines by 0.1% The Swiss franc has extended its losses on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9212, up 0.31%. Swiss inflation declines by 0.1% Major central bankers have their hands full as they continue to battle stubborn inflation.
03-10-2023 06:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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AUD/JPY Technical – Bearish reaction from key long-term range resistance in place since Oct 2007
The multi-year up move of the AUD/JPY from the March 2020 low of 59.88 has shown bullish exhaustion conditions right at the long-term secular range resistance of 96.88. Today’s RBA monetary policy decision has reinforced the short-term bearish tone via the breakdown below the 20-day moving average. Key short-term resistance to watch will be at 95.70 which also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the current minor short-term downtrend phase from 29 September 2023 high to today, 3 Octo
03-10-2023 05:45 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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AUD/USD - Falls as RBA leaves interest rates on hold for a fourth month
RBA holds the Cash Rate at 4.1% AUDUSD falls despite warning that further hikes remain an option Key technical support eyed after brief consolidation The Australian dollar softened this morning after the RBA opted to leave the Cash Rate at 4.1% but warned some further tightening may be required. The decision and statement - the first under new Governor Michele Bullock - was largely in line with what we've heard before and was a long way from suggesting another rate hike is imminent.
03-10-2023 04:48 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Podcast - USD/JPY relentless rally with RBA interest rate decision and US NFP on the radar next
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss the persistent upward movement of USD/JPY despite verbal intervention from Japanese officials to "talk down" the strength of the US dollar and uncover the factors that are supporting the current short-term uptrend of the USD/JPY. In addition, a discussion on the key US  jobs market data (non-farm payrolls) out on this Friday, and its possible impact on the US stock market. https://open.spotify.com/episode/1OxAXlV8rvU3SmiftIZT2p
03-10-2023 00:13 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Brent Crude - Volatile start for oil ahead of OPEC+ meeting
PMIs continue to point to a weakness in demand OPEC+ holds the key to crude oil prices Lost momentum ahead of recent decline It's been a volatile start to the week for oil, with prices initially rising before falling negative to trade almost 2% lower on the day. We've had a vast selection of PMIs to bear in mind today, as well as speculation around the OPEC+ decision on Wednesday and, of course, the US averted a government shutdown.
02-10-2023 17:30 GMT by Craig Erlam
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DAX - PMIs paint a bleak picture for manufacturing but China offers hope
Manufacturing remains in trouble China seeing some growth but unconvincing Bearish confirmation for DE30 index Manufacturing PMIs released throughout the day have made for pretty miserable reading and even those in China barely registered any growth after a lengthy period of contraction. The Chinese data did offer some cause for hope at least, despite ultimately barely sitting in growth territory. The trajectory is positive and boosted by targeted stimulus measures that are seemingly working.
02-10-2023 17:05 GMT by Craig Erlam
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