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EUR/USD higher as eurozone inflation slides

Eurozone inflation falls to 4.5% US Core PCE Price Index eases to 3.9% The euro has moved upwards on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0597, up 0.30%.

29-09-2023 08:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Week Ahead - US government shutdown, RBA and RBNZ rate decisions, weekend data

This will be a busy week in the US with a looming government shutdown, an expanding UAW strike, a lot of Fed speak, and an NFP report that could show hiring fell to the lowest levels since early 2021. The September jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed from a 187,000 pace to 170,000. Despite the loosening of the labor market, the unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 3.7%, and wage pressures are expected to increase on a monthly basis from 0.2% to a 0.3% pace.

29-09-2023 08:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar extends gains ahead of GDP

Canada's GDP expected to improve US PCE Core Prices projected to stay steady at 0.2% The Canadian dollar has posted losses on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3446, down 0.28%. Canada's GDP expected to post 0.1% gain I have noticed the phrase "US exceptionalism" being bandied about lately.

29-09-2023 06:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen gains ground, Tokyo Core CPI eases

Tokyo Core CPI eases to 2.5% Japanese yen rises The Japanese yen is showing some life following a nasty slide earlier in the week, which saw it decline around 1.5% and come close to the symbolic 150 line. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.72, down 0.40%. Tokyo Core CPI falls to 2.5% Japan is experiencing higher inflation than it has known for decades, although it remains much lower than in other major economies. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.5% y/y in Sept

29-09-2023 04:08 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential counter trend rebound as 10-year UST yield retreated

The 10-week decline of the Nasdaq 100 has almost reached a key medium-term support of 14,300. The rising 10-year US Treasury yield is a significant factor that led to the recent decline of the Nasdaq 100. A daily bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick sighted yesterday on the 10-year US Treasury yield may trigger a counter trend rebound in the Nasdaq 100. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Slipped back below 50-day moving average as Fed FOMC looms” published

29-09-2023 01:22 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Euro gains ground, German inflation slides

German inflation falls sharply US GDP expands 2.1%, unemployment claims tick higher The euro continues to show volatility. EUR/USD has jumped 0.53% on Thursday, erasing almost all of the losses sustained on Thursday.

28-09-2023 13:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD: Positioned nicely to rebound if dollar weakness persists

US-China tensions might ease if Xi visits the US China's PMI data expected to show economy is stabilizing Despite property market crisis, iron ore demand is expected to remain strong The Australian dollar has been stabilizing over the past month around the 0.6340 level, which means if king dollar is ready for a pullback, a rally towards 0.6500 could unfold. The key for the Australian dollar might be if the outlook for China improves. The property crisis isn't going away anytime soon, but we c

28-09-2023 13:07 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD: Euro rallies as German inflation falls to lowest levels since before Ukraine War

German HICP inflation declined sharply in September Italian-German 10-year yield spread tested 200 bps Dollar profit-taking begins after softer personal consumption data The king dollar trade has run out of steam. It took cooling German inflation and a global bond market selloff that attracted foreign investment back into Europe. The surge in European bond yields is actually bad news for the economy but should still provide some short-term relief for the euro. Italian debt fears The 10-year

28-09-2023 12:15 GMT by Edward Moya

Brent Crude - Is the oil rally running on fumes as Brent nears $100?

Oil rally is not a repeat of last year $100 a major psychological level Divergences appearing Oil prices are increasingly hitting the headlines, with Brent crude coming within five dollars of triple figures which will naturally bring back bad memories of last year's price surge. It is worth noting that, while oil could top $100, this is very different from 2022 and is largely being driven by OPEC+ tipping the market into deficit which is unlikely to be the long-term plan.

28-09-2023 12:08 GMT by Craig Erlam

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EUR/USD - Heading for parity or could a rebound be on the cards?

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the latest moves in EURUSD as the dust settles following the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings.

28-09-2023 11:39 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/CHF - Promising inflation data ahead of Friday's eurozone HICP release

Eurozone inflation data making positive moves ECB unlikely to raise rates again in this tightening cycle EURCHF entered into key resistance zone Inflation data from some eurozone member states was released on Thursday and there was some cause for optimism. While the eurozone HICP release isn't due until tomorrow, we do get some insight ahead of time from the individual country breakdowns and it's Germany that's offered a promising update this morning. Headline inflation in North Rhine Westphal

28-09-2023 10:46 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY rebounds, US GDP, Tokyo Core CPI next

Tokyo Core CPI expected to drop from 2.8% to 2.6% Japanese yen steadies after slide The Japanese yen has stemmed a 3-day slide, in which it declined around 1.5% against the US dollar. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.31, down 0.23%.

28-09-2023 07:49 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar steadies, retail sales dip

Australia's retail sales decelerate to 0.2% The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Thursday after three straight daily losses in which AUD/USD lost over 1% and hit an 11-month low. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6367, up 0.23%. Australia retail sales rise slightly Australian consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, has been showing cracks.

28-09-2023 04:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP: Pound firms up as BOE rate hike odds grow

German Institutes see 2025 GDP at 1.5% Germany GfK consumer confidence hit lowest since Apr 2023 Euro Zone M3 money supply posts worst drop on record FX traders appear convinced that the ECB is done hiking and that the BOE might have to stay hawkish a little while longer. Rate hike odds for the BOE at the November 2nd meeting have edged higher to 40.6%, while the implied rate is seen peaking at 5.398% in March. The ECB is likely done hiking but rate cuts probably won't be happening until

27-09-2023 15:25 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD: Dethroning King Dollar will be hard

The dollar was weaker and US stocks attempted to rally after the bond market selloff started to show some signs of exhaustion. Last night, the 10-year Treasury yield rally stalled out after its second attempt failed at breaking above 4.56%. A little calm in the bond market gave risky assets a modest boost, but that should be short-lived. A positive surprise with durable goods data was initially viewed as good news for the economy and possibly stocks, but good news is actually bad news for equ

27-09-2023 12:44 GMT by Edward Moya

XAU/USD - Hawkish Fed commentary pushes gold back below $1,900

Hawkish Fed speak continues to pressure gold Two key technical support levels broken today Gold trading at a six month low Gold continues to drift lower after breaking below $1,900, a key area of support in recent weeks. The yellow metal had been range-bound between $1,900 and $1,950 around the major central bank meetings this month and it would appear a hawkish Fed when others have adopted a more neutral tone has pushed it over the edge. The dollar has been charging higher over the last week

27-09-2023 12:20 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Oil on the rise again after taking a small breather

Price breaks higher after brief consolidation Oil market remains tight, supporting prices Momentum indicators may be key near $100 After a week of consolidation, oil prices are on the rise again on Wednesday ahead of the release of inventory data from EIA. The API release yesterday may have surprised some, recording an increase of 1.586 million barrels, a lot more than the 0.7 million decline that's expected today. But it won't alter the view that the market is extremely tight following a numb

27-09-2023 11:38 GMT by Craig Erlam

New Zealand dollar edges lower, business confidence next

New Zealand Business Confidence expected to rebound The New Zealand dollar is slightly lower on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5937 in the North American session, down 0.13%. The US dollar has been on a tear against the major currencies.

27-09-2023 11:08 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Dow - Steady as the dust settles on a massive week of central bank meetings

Is Fed speak weighing on market sentiment? Uncertainty could mount if US government shuts down US30 breaks below 200-day SMA Equity markets are pretty flat in the middle of the week, struggling to pick themselves up off the floor as investors worry about higher for longer interest rates and the economy. Last week was action-packed and it seems investors are still piecing it all together in the absence of much else happening. While I often refer to them as eternal optimists, when faced with the

27-09-2023 11:01 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD extends losses, eyes German inflation

German consumer confidence decelerates German inflation expected to fall to 4.6% The euro has extended its losses on Wednesday and has declined close to 1% this week. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0552, down 0.18%. Germany has traditionally been the powerhouse of Europe but finds itself lagging in the rear, with a struggling economy and high inflation.

27-09-2023 09:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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