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Ethereum: Unable to rally as new future ETFs volumes disappoint
Cryptos struggle as relentless Treasury selloff continues; 10-year yield rises 5.2bps to 4.731% Proshares Ethereum ETF (EETH) traded only 21,000 shares VanEck’s Ethereum Strategy ETF (EFUT) traded only 29,000 shares Over the past several months the focus in the cryptoverse has been on whether the SEC will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. Hampered by SEC delays, sentiment for cryptos have struggled immensely, especially given the chaos sparked by the bond market. Sentiment could be improving given t
03-10-2023 07:50 GMT by Edward Moya
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Australian dollar sinks as RBA hold rates
RBA holds rates at 4.1% AUD/USD declines 1% The Australian dollar is down sharply lower on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6295, down 1.05%. RBA pauses rates for fourth straight time Another Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, another pause.
03-10-2023 07:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Swiss franc slips as inflation falls
Swiss inflation declines by 0.1% The Swiss franc has extended its losses on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9212, up 0.31%. Swiss inflation declines by 0.1% Major central bankers have their hands full as they continue to battle stubborn inflation.
03-10-2023 06:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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AUD/JPY Technical – Bearish reaction from key long-term range resistance in place since Oct 2007
The multi-year up move of the AUD/JPY from the March 2020 low of 59.88 has shown bullish exhaustion conditions right at the long-term secular range resistance of 96.88. Today’s RBA monetary policy decision has reinforced the short-term bearish tone via the breakdown below the 20-day moving average. Key short-term resistance to watch will be at 95.70 which also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the current minor short-term downtrend phase from 29 September 2023 high to today, 3 Octo
03-10-2023 05:45 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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AUD/USD - Falls as RBA leaves interest rates on hold for a fourth month
RBA holds the Cash Rate at 4.1% AUDUSD falls despite warning that further hikes remain an option Key technical support eyed after brief consolidation The Australian dollar softened this morning after the RBA opted to leave the Cash Rate at 4.1% but warned some further tightening may be required. The decision and statement - the first under new Governor Michele Bullock - was largely in line with what we've heard before and was a long way from suggesting another rate hike is imminent.
03-10-2023 04:48 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Podcast - USD/JPY relentless rally with RBA interest rate decision and US NFP on the radar next
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss the persistent upward movement of USD/JPY despite verbal intervention from Japanese officials to "talk down" the strength of the US dollar and uncover the factors that are supporting the current short-term uptrend of the USD/JPY. In addition, a discussion on the key US  jobs market data (non-farm payrolls) out on this Friday, and its possible impact on the US stock market. https://open.spotify.com/episode/1OxAXlV8rvU3SmiftIZT2p
03-10-2023 00:13 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Brent Crude - Volatile start for oil ahead of OPEC+ meeting
PMIs continue to point to a weakness in demand OPEC+ holds the key to crude oil prices Lost momentum ahead of recent decline It's been a volatile start to the week for oil, with prices initially rising before falling negative to trade almost 2% lower on the day. We've had a vast selection of PMIs to bear in mind today, as well as speculation around the OPEC+ decision on Wednesday and, of course, the US averted a government shutdown.
02-10-2023 17:30 GMT by Craig Erlam
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DAX - PMIs paint a bleak picture for manufacturing but China offers hope
Manufacturing remains in trouble China seeing some growth but unconvincing Bearish confirmation for DE30 index Manufacturing PMIs released throughout the day have made for pretty miserable reading and even those in China barely registered any growth after a lengthy period of contraction. The Chinese data did offer some cause for hope at least, despite ultimately barely sitting in growth territory. The trajectory is positive and boosted by targeted stimulus measures that are seemingly working.
02-10-2023 17:05 GMT by Craig Erlam
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EUR/CHF: Swiss franc looking like a key safe-haven trade for Europe
European stocks drop to their lowest level in more than six months Swiss franc stronger against most European counterparts (NOK and SEK firmer) Overnight index swaps still not A global bond market selloff European equities sharply lower and triggered some safe-haven flows towards the Swiss franc.  The EUR/CHF daily chart shows prices have tentatively fallen towards the lowest levels since September 21st.  Risk aversion is clearly in place given US lawmakers were able to tentatively avoid a shut
02-10-2023 15:01 GMT by Edward Moya
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USD/JPY: Waiting on the BOJ to do something meaningful
Japanese Officials jawboning unable to upend dollar rally overnight US 10-year real yields approaches 15-year high Fed rate hike odds back over 50% for a hike by year end Over the weekend, Congress opted to kick the can down the road, passing a short-term stopgap funding bill.  This measure means the government will remain open until November 17th, providing natural disaster aid but not additional funding for Ukraine or border security. With a temporary funding solution in place, Wall Stree
02-10-2023 14:03 GMT by Edward Moya
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Japanese yen edges lower after hawkish BoJ minutes
USD/JPY on doorstep of 150 line BoJ says it will buy more JGBs BoJ's minutes indicate 2% sustainable inflation may be close The Japanese yen has started the week with slight losses. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.80, up 0.29%. BoJ says it will buy more JGBs The Bank of Japan said on Monday that it will conduct an unscheduled purchase of Japanese government bonds(JGBs) on Wednesday.
02-10-2023 10:00 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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AUD/USD falls ahead of RBA meeting
Australian dollar falls below 0.6400 MI Inflation Gauge comes in at 0% RBA expected to hold rates at 4.1% The Australian dollar has started the week considerably lower. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6397, down 0.55%. MI Inflation Gauge comes in at 0% The Melbourne Institute's Inflation Gauge was flat in September after 12 straight months of increases.
02-10-2023 07:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY rallied to an 11-month high despite a rosy Q3 Tankan report and verbal interventions
Upbeat longer-term inflationary expectations and business sentiment of large Japanese corporations could not derail the relentless up move of USD/JPY. Momentum factor and further potential 10-year US Treasury/JGB yield spread premium are supporting this current bout of rallies seen in USD/JPY at least in the short-term. The key resistances to watch will be at 150.00/150.30 and 150.80/150.90. The bulls of USD/JPY have continued to charge forward and broke above last week's high of 147.71 in toda
02-10-2023 06:29 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/CAD: Loonie weakens after GDP miss and on oil profit-taking
Canadian economy struggles to find growth Oil price rally exhausted as $100 price remains elusive GDP sends BOC rate hike odds down; October 25th meeting at 30.4% vs yesterday's 42.2% USD/CAD rises to a two-week high after loonie bulls disappeared after a disappointing July GDP report.  It looks like Wall Street was a bit too optimistic on the Canadian economy and expectations for August is for a similar reading. The Canadian economic outlook is struggling as the impact from Bank of Canada's ag
29-09-2023 16:04 GMT by Edward Moya
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USD/JPY: Cooling inflation allows dollar rally to pause
US core inflation and personal spending softens Bond yields pare earlier losses; 10-year yield now only down 1bps to 4.565% US near-term inflation expectation drop to lowest levels since 2021 After a disastrous week, month, and quarter as the bond market selloff would not relent, US dollar long positions got closed out after further evidence supported the case that the Fed might be done hiking rates. ​ The latest round of economic data that showed spending and core inflation cooled.
29-09-2023 14:52 GMT by Edward Moya
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DAX - Rebounds amid a major boost for the ECB but there's still a long way to go
Eurozone HICP inflation y/y 4.3% in September (5.2% in August), core HICP 4.5% (5.3%) US PCE inflation y/y 3.5% in August (3.4% in July), core PCE 3.9% (4.3%) DAX rebounds but remains below key technical level European stock markets are performing well at the end of the week after spending much of it in the red on the back of fresh interest rate concerns. A determination to drive home the message that interest rates will stay higher for longer appears to have finally wobbled investors
29-09-2023 10:07 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Week Ahead - US government shutdown, RBA and RBNZ rate decisions, weekend data
This will be a busy week in the US with a looming government shutdown, an expanding UAW strike, a lot of Fed speak, and an NFP report that could show hiring fell to the lowest levels since early 2021.  The September jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed from a 187,000 pace to 170,000.  Despite the loosening of the labor market, the unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 3.7%, and wage pressures are expected to increase on a monthly basis from 0.2% to a 0.3% pace.
29-09-2023 08:17 GMT by Craig Erlam
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