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EUR/JPY: Keep your eyes on Italian yields

Safe-havens rally as Israel-Hamas war rattles markets Italy 10-year premium over Germany rises towards a 9-month high EUR/JPY appears poised to exit 155-160 range Bond investors are closely watching the widening spread of both Italian bond spreads over the German and Spanish equivalent. Surging interest rates have put a focus back on deficits and that is bad news for Italy. The recent moves with Italian yields might allow the ECB to hold off on ending a bond-buying scheme early. Italy’s budg

09-10-2023 12:07 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY: Safe-haven flows are the dominant trade on fear of war's spread

WSJ reports Iran helped plot attack over several weeks Safe-haven flows didn't come to Treasuries as US bond markets were closed for Columbus Day Risk aversion across the board; S&P 500 -0.5%, Gold +1.1%, WTI crude +4.3%, and USD/JPY -0.5% US stocks dropped in the wake of the Hamas attack on Israel but have pared losses after Fed's Logan downplayed the need for more rate hikes. It was supposed to be a quiet Monday morning given the Columbus day holiday, which includes the closure of the US bon

09-10-2023 11:20 GMT by Edward Moya

XAU/USD - Safe haven flows boost gold after a rough few weeks

Geopolitical uncertainty boosts gold Driven lower recently by rising yields Fib levels may offer biggest test of resistance Gold is higher at the start of the week, buoyed perhaps by some safe-haven flows against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. The dollar is also stronger which is typically a headwind for gold but it's not proving particularly problematic this morning. The yellow metal has been under immense pressure in recent weeks as investors became increasingly unsure about the in

09-10-2023 11:19 GMT by Craig Erlam

UK100 - Gives up earlier gains in risk-averse trade in the markets

UK100 outperforming buoyed by energy stocks Risk aversion weighing on broader markets Sideways trend remains in tact We're seeing a little more risk-aversion in the markets at the start of the week which is understandable considering the unfortunate events in Israel over the weekend. The surprise attack by Hamas has fueled concerns about further instability in the Middle East which could in turn disrupt oil flows at a time when the market is already extremely tight and prices are high.

09-10-2023 10:09 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro slips as German industrial production declines

German Industrial Production declines for fourth straight month The euro has started the week with losses. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0527, down 0.57%. Germany's industrial production declines German industrial production declined in August by 0.2%, following a revised -0.6% reading in July and shy of the consensus estimate of -0.1%.

09-10-2023 08:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Geopolitical risk premium on the rise may trigger another round of risk-off movement in equities

In the recent past three months, the 40% rally seen in the WTI crude oil has a significant direct correlation with the US 10-year US Treasury yield. A higher US 10-year US Treasury yield has trigged a short-term downtrend in global equities since late July 2023. WTI crude oil futures gapped up by +5% in today’s Asia opening session due to the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian militant group. A further up move above a key short-term resistance of US$89.70/barrel on WTI

09-10-2023 06:03 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Podcast - US jobs report sends financial markets on a rollercoaster ride

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. Today they discuss Wall Street's reaction to a surprisingly robust US jobs report and why the dollar and stocks reversed course. They also review Canada's impressive jobs report and discuss crude's bad week despite the significant tightness in the oil market.

06-10-2023 14:46 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD: Canada's payroll report outperforms the US

Canada's economy added 63,800 jobs, in September more than tripled expectations Canadian wages rose 5.3% vs 5.1% eyed and a 5.2% prior BOC rate hike odds rise to 41.6% for the October 25th meeting North America had quite an impressive hiring spree in September. Much of the attention went to the US NFP report, but Canada quietly outperformed their neighbor. Canada delivered robust job and wage gains, while the US saw impressive hiring but softening wages. It is clear that FX markets are thinki

06-10-2023 13:39 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - US inflation and earnings, central banker appearances in abundance

This week will deliver a make-or-break moment for Fed rate hike expectations. The main event will be the September inflation report. Expectations are for both headline and core inflation to post 0.3% month-over-month gains in September, while headline year-over-year inflation will drop a tick to 3.6% and core’s annual reading will ease from 4.3% to 4.1%. In September, gas prices were relatively stable, car prices rose, and some core services were sticky.

06-10-2023 11:20 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY: Hot NFP report sends dollar higher after US economy has best job growth since January

US jobs gains broadest since January; 336,000 created vs 170,000 eyed Wages unexpectedly came in cooler than expected; holding steady with a 0.2% monthly pace and on annual basis down from 4.3% to 4.2%. Dollar surges across the board with the exception to the Canadian dollar (Canada posted a robust 63,800 job gain themselves, tripling their consensus estimate).

06-10-2023 09:56 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD unchanged as Canada, US post strong job numbers

Canada records 63,800 jobs in September US nonfarm payrolls posts a massive gain of 336,000 Fed rate odds of a November hike rise sharply The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3705, almost unchanged.

06-10-2023 09:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US30 - US jobs report eyed as Fed seeks evidence of cooling labour market

US jobs report to set the tone ADP an unreliable precursor US30 steadies around key support Equity markets are edging higher ahead of the US jobs report on Friday, a release that could set the tone in the markets ahead of next month's Fed meeting. While price pressures are ultimately what the Fed is primarily interested in, there is clearly a view on the FOMC that sustainable 2% inflation is not possible without cooling the labor market. Time will tell how accurate an assumption that is but in

06-10-2023 07:44 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro quiet ahead of US nonfarm payrolls

German Factory Orders rebound with 3.6% gain US nonfarm payrolls projected to ease to 170,000 The euro is almost flat on Friday after two straight daily gains. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0554, up 0.04%. Germany's economy is struggling, as the traditional locomotive of the eurozone is grappling with high inflation and weak growth.

06-10-2023 07:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar steady ahead of US jobs report

US nonfarm payrolls expected to slow to 170,000 RBA financial stability report points to trouble for householders The Australian dollar is drifting on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6364, down 0.10%.

06-10-2023 04:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Technical: A consolidation in the US 10-year Treasury yield may offer a relief bounce

Spot Gold (XAU/USD) has a significant indirect correlation with the 10-year US Treasury yield since May 2023. A potential short-term pull-back in US 10-year Treasury yield below a 4.90% key medium-term resistance may offer a “relief mean reversion rebound” on spot Gold. Watch the key support of US$1,810 on spot Gold. In the past two weeks, the price of spot Gold (XAU/USD) has tumbled swiftly by -6.90% from its 21 September 2023 high of US$1,947 to a seven-month low of US$1,813 printed on Thursd

06-10-2023 04:36 GMT by Kelvin Wong

NZD/USD: Bounce limited as RBNZ rate hike odds for November underwhelm

Fed's Daly (non-voter) noted that recent bond market tightening equals about 1 rate hike; if labor market cools, we can hold rates steady RBNZ rate hike expectations are between a hold or one more rate hike China's improving outlook could boost commodities The New Zealand central bank is keeping all their options open after keeping rates on hold this week, refraining to signaling that inflation outlook could warrant further tightening.

05-10-2023 16:04 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar stops nasty slide

Canada Ivey PMI remains in expansion territory Canada, US job reports expected to decline The Canadian dollar has steadied on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3728, down 0.12%. The Canadian currency has stabilized after a nasty four-day slide, in which it declined 1.9%.

05-10-2023 12:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY: the king dollar trade and bond market selloff isn't over just yet

Bond futures traders wagers (open interest) hit record high; Bets are calling for a hike at November 1st meeting US jobless claims edge higher but still remain historically low levels Fed's Daly noted they can hold rates steady if labor, prices keep cooling The dollar is softening and stocks are slightly lower as calm emerges in the bond market. Wall Street is still seeing a lot of strength in the labor market.

05-10-2023 12:17 GMT by Edward Moya

Pound shrugs off soft Construction PMI

UK Construction PMI declines The British pound has ticked higher on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2149, up 0.09%. UK Construction PMI declines The UK Construction PMI fell to 45.0 in September, down significantly from 50.8 in August and below the consensus estimate of 49.9.

05-10-2023 09:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen steadies as intervention speculation subsides

USD/JPY drifting for a second straight day BoJ likely did not intervene in currency markets The Japanese yen has posted slight gains on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.97, down 0.10%. Yen spike was likely not due to intervention The yen has stabilized after a massive spike on Tuesday.

05-10-2023 06:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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