A risky weekend ahead – North American Session Market Wrap for April 10

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Markets are now preparing for a rocky weekend, with high stakes geopolitical developments ahead.

Despite recent back-and-forth rhetoric and Iran threatening to cancel the negotiations entirely, a group of Islamic republic diplomats—including Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi—is traveling to Islamabad, Pakistan, to move onto a potential peace deal between the US and Iran.

These talks should be ongoing for a relatively long time, hence a real change in narrative and dynamic is not to be expected anytime soon.

However, steady progress and positive communications will be required to maintain risk-sentiment at current, very positive levels. Stock Markets actually took a step back from their ecstatic pricing from earlier this week, but they still remain at relative peaks.

Adding to the geopolitical relief, Israel-Hezbollah tensions are slowly abating, as a ceasefire and formal talks on that side of the arena should be expected by Tuesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the recent commodity shock is officially showing up in the data.

The latest US CPI report showed the first direct hits from recent energy price rises, with headline inflation coming in at 3.3% y/y.

This was heavily driven by a massive 0.7% rise from energy and food inflation (with Core CPI only at 0.2% – but still concerning for the Fed) – The highest report in two years.

While this complicated the inflation picture, the report was well priced (as-expected).

Canadian Employment also marked a decent rebound, also coming as expected at 14.1K (Unemployment rate ticked lower to 6.7%).

Meanwhile, institutional continuity might provide a slight anchor for monetary policy amid recent Market chaos. In other news, Kevin Warsh's hearing has been announced to be delayed, which could keep Powell at the head of the Fed for a prolonged period.

Read More:

• Metals are lost in translation; Risk-assets or Safe-Haven? – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) & Copper (XCU/USD) Outlook
• Profit-taking in Stocks ahead of key weekend risk – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook
• USD/CAD forms a gigantic range after CA Employment – Will lower Oil prices endanger the CAD?

The Market picture remained quite the same as this morning, although slightly eased as profit-taking continued.

Amazon remains a large winner of this week of action, with Nvidia also marking a decent rebound as investors keep looking for quality stocks in a perpetual rotation amid always so dramatic narratives.

Today's asset performance was relatively calm compared to what Markets have been getting used to in recent weeks.

WTI dropped around the weekly close, something that consumers will (hopefully) enjoy at the pump over the weekend – even if nothing about recent Petrol prices have been enjoyable. But everything is relative I guess.

Cryptos continue their remarkable rebound into what seems to be a more decisive run, having broken some key technical hurdles – Check out our latest Analysis to learn more!

Currency Markets have remained quite muted, with all participants looking at the US Dollar in the waiting for its signal (and naturally, its relation with Crude Oil, stuck in uncomfortable silence).

Still, European currencies have awakened again after staying dormant this week.

Except for the beginning of the IMF meeting in Washington, nothing too important is on the calendar – The meeting will gather key diplomats and figures from around the World, so outlooks from recent Oil prices etc could somewhat reprice Markets.

Keep track of important speeches.

Get ready for next week's action with our Weekly Outlook right here!

For the rest, as always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.

Safe Trades!

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