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Dollar softens ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech

Stocks earning driven rally supports risk assets USD softer against majority of trading partners Jobless Claims drop to lowest levels since January It’s dawning on Wall Street that despite a giant ‘wall of worry’, the Fed is probably going to have to resume raising rates. Fed fund futures are now leaning towards one more rate hike by the January FOMC decision. After another low jobless claims report, it is clear that the US economy remains resilient and is unlikely in a position to bring infla

19-10-2023 11:40 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro rises, US jobless claims drop

US unemployment claims drop below 200K ECB's Lagarde expresses concern over oil inflation The euro has bounced back on Thursday, erasing the losses from a day earlier. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0573, up 0.36%. The Middle East is back in the headlines as Israel and Hamas are engaged in fierce fighting.

19-10-2023 10:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD flat as retail sales eyed

US unemployment claims fall below 200K UK retail sales expected to improve to -0.1% The British pound is drifting on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2142, almost unchanged. The UK inflation report on Wednesday was a stark reminder that inflation remains stubborn and sticky.

19-10-2023 09:30 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie slips on soft employment data

Australian employment falls sharply PBOC expected to maintain loan prime rates The Australian dollar has extended its losses on Thursday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6312, down 0.37%. Australia's labour market had a disappointing September, with only 6,700 jobs created.

19-10-2023 07:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Reality has started to sink in for richly valued US long-duration and growth equities

Rising geopolitical risk premium may override the historical positive seasonality in the S&P 500 for the months of October and November. The US 10-year Treasury yield is now just a stone-throw away from 5.20% and a break above it may spiral towards 6.87% next. S&P 500’s market breadth has continued to deteriorate as only 38% of its component stocks are above their respective key 200-day moving averages. A bearish breakdown below 4,140 key support on the S&P 500 may trigger a major downtrend phas

19-10-2023 05:37 GMT by Kelvin Wong

GBP/JPY Technical – Impending bearish reversal

The GBP is the second weakest currency among the major US dollar pairs in the past five days. A potential bearish reversal set-up has emerged for GBP/JPY while the JPY bears seem to be cautious about Japan’s MoF intervention at around the 150.30 risk level on USD/JPY. Watch the key short-term resistance at 182.95 on the GBP/JPY. The UK pound sterling (GBP) is the second weakest currency among the major US dollar pairs based on a five-day rolling performance calculation at this time of the writi

19-10-2023 01:28 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Podcast - Are Wall Street banks becoming to pessimistic with the euro, oil gains on wider war fears, Bitcoin volatility

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. Today they discuss the impact Middle East tensions are having with oil prices, sticky UK inflation, an overcrowded bearish bet against the euro on Wall Street, and spot Bitcoin ETF expectations.

18-10-2023 15:30 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY: Dollar holds gains post 20-year auction and Beige Book

Two-year Treasury rises 0.7bps to 5.216%, 10-year higher by 7.2bps to 4.906%, and the 30-year gains 7.0bps to 4.995% Beige book sees US outlook as stable or slightly weaker Treasury market unraveled by growth in supply; today's auction saw surprisingly better demand The dollar is holding onto most of its gains as the surge in Treasury yields stalls after a historic bond market slide. A 20-year bond auction saw strong demand, bucking the tepid demand we saw last week. This auction was awarded

18-10-2023 15:15 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD: King dollar trade remains as hot UK inflation is unable to give GBP a boost

Headline UK CPI inflation held steady at 6.7% vs 6.6% eyed; BOE rate hike odds rise to 60% for a quarter-point increase by the Feb 1st meeting Fed's Williams said interest rates will have to stay at restrictive levels “for some time” to bring inflation back down to the central bank’s 2% target. Fed's Waller can wait and gather more data before deciding if more rate hikes are needed The dollar is rising and US stocks are declining on soft earnings, rising rates, and as the risks grow for a poten

18-10-2023 13:02 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro slips as Eurozone inflation falls to 4.3%

Eurozone CPI confirmed at 4.3% Markets eye Fedspeak, with four FOMC members speaking today The euro is considerably lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0525, down 0.48%. Eurozone inflation falls to 4.3% The inflation rate in the eurozone for September was confirmed at 4.3% y/y on Wednesday, down from 5.2% in August and the lowest since October 2021.

18-10-2023 12:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD edges lower, China data beats expectations

China's GDP beats expectations at 4.9% Australian job growth expected to fall The Australian dollar started the day higher but has reversed directions. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6357, down 0.13%. The US dollar has steamrolled the Aussie, which hasn't posted a winning week since September and dropped close to a one-year low last week.

18-10-2023 10:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pounds shrugs as CPI remains steady

UK CPI unchanged, core CPI ticks lower US retail sales hotter than expected The British pound is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2194, down 0.09%. UK CPI unchanged, core CPI ticks lower Today's UK inflation report showed little change from a month ago, a reminder that the battle to curb inflation will be a long one.

18-10-2023 07:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/AUD potential short-term downside pressure after upbeat China data

China’s Q3 GDP, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production for September beat expectations. China’s Country Garden is still at risk of an imminent default as its grace period of overdue bond coupon payments of US$15.4 million expires today. The FX market is ignoring the default risk of Country Garden as the offshore yuan (CHN) has continued to trade sideways against the US dollar since 28 September. The resilience of CNH against the US dollar has triggered a dissipating US dollar strength movement

18-10-2023 02:13 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/CHF: Two-year yield surges as the risks grow to the US outlook

Republican Jim Jordan does not have enough votes to be elected House speaker in the first round of floor voting. Risk aversion was the early trade as hot data fueled Fed rate hike bets Investors await key Chinese data that could alleviate global growth concerns USD/CHF been a tough trade over the last week as geopolitical concerns initially sent safe haven flows towards the franc, but resilient economic data prevented risk aversion from running wild. The movement with Treasury yields are drivi

17-10-2023 14:38 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD: Dollar volatile as Treasury yields surge; parity calls grow

JPMorgan expects EUR/USD to test parity, down from prior 1.05 target Citibank is eyeing a move to parity within six months ING head of research sees euro-dollar parity as possible Rabobank, Nomura, and RBC are eyeing a euro decline to 1.02 by end of year Both the US dollar and stocks are lower as good news about the economy is once again bad news, since it will keep policymakers on the fence on delivering more tightening. Treasury yields are rising after a couple of strong economic releases abo

17-10-2023 12:19 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD slips on strong US retail sales

GBP/USD down over half a percent US retail sales higher than expected UK inflation projected to decline on Wednesday The British pound has declined 0.56% against the US dollar on Wednesday, wiping out yesterday's gains. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2158, down 0.48%.

17-10-2023 10:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar eyes Cdn. inflation, US retail sales

Canadian inflation expected to remain unchanged US retail sales projected to ease The Canadian dollar is trading quietly in the European session. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3635, up 0.18%.

17-10-2023 07:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar calm after RBA minutes

RBA releases minutes Investors eye Israel-Hamas war The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6353 in Europe, up 0.18%. It has been a rough patch for the Australian dollar lately.

17-10-2023 06:06 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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Podcast - Gold may continue its upside momentum with China's Q3 GDP and UK inflation on the radar next

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss several key highlights for the week ahead, potential firmer gold and oil prices due to lingering geopolitical risk premium, key China economic data (Q3 GDP, Retail Sales & Industrial Production) as well as UK's inflation data for September where the consensus is expecting another month of slowdown to 6% y/y for core inflation from 6.2% y/y in August. https://open.spotify.com/episode/25ibbNurKomUjUhujYrn2K

17-10-2023 03:29 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/NZD Technical – Start of a new potential bullish impulsive up move

The Kiwi dollar (NZD) has been the worst performer among the US dollar major pairs in the past five days. A further slowdown in New Zealand’s Q3 CPI (5.6% y/y versus 6% y/y in Q2) reinforces RBNZ's current stance of maintaining its key policy official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%. A less hawkish RBNZ may put further downside pressure on the NZD that supports an ongoing major uptrend phase in the EUR/NZD cross pair. Watch the 1.7820 key short-term pivotal support on the EUR/NZD. The Kiwi dollar (

17-10-2023 02:00 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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