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AUD/JPY Technical – Recent two weeks of rebound at risk of bearish reversal

+297 pips of rebound seen in AUD/JPY from 3 October 2023 low of 93.06 has reached a key short-term resistance zone of 95.70/96.00. The up move from 10 October to 12 October 2023 has been accompanied by a weakening of upside momentum as indicated by the hourly RSI. Watch the near-term support at 95.30 (20-day moving average) as a potential downside trigger level. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Bearish reaction from key long-term range resistance in place since Oct 2007” publi

12-10-2023 06:36 GMT by Kelvin Wong

British pound shrugs as UK economy rebounds

UK GDP bounces back with 0.2% gain FOMC minutes: Restrictive policy to continue until inflation falls to target The British pound continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2302, down 0.08%. UK's GDP rises 0.2% The UK economy grew by 0.2% in August, rebounding from a revised 0.6% decline in July.

12-10-2023 05:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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Podcast - US PPI surprise, CPI to come

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Trader Nick to discuss today's moves in the markets after US PPI data and ahead of the Fed minutes and CPI releases.

11-10-2023 19:22 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Video - Gold recovers after Fed commentary

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the recent recovery in gold as traders flocked to safe havens and Fed policymakers retreated from their recent hawkish positions.

11-10-2023 18:15 GMT by Craig Erlam

Dollar mostly unfazed post FOMC Minutes

Minutes: Fed sees 'restrictive' policy staying in place until inflation eases 10-year Treasury yield resumes slide post minutes, down 5.4bps to 4.599% Inflation expected to moderate given energy price trends in September; while core proves to be sticky These Fed Minutes seem to be particularly old given everything we've seen with rates, a new war, and a gloomier outlook for the economy. The Minutes noted that policy should remain restrictive for some time until the Committee is confident that

11-10-2023 14:45 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD: Tentatively recaptures 1.2300 as dollar drops for a sixth day as yields continue to tumble

US 10-year Treasury yield falls 6.6bps to 4.587% Fed's Bowman and Waller become less hawkish FOMC minutes to be released at 2pm EST The US dollar pared losses after a hot PPI report but still settled lower as Wall Street focused on the latest Fed speak that had two hawks dial down dial the immediate need for further tightening. The high-beta currencies might struggle for further gains until Wall Street sees tomorrow’s CPI report, which could come in hot given producer prices were supported on

11-10-2023 12:30 GMT by Edward Moya

Australian dollar's rally fizzles

Australian inflation expectations projection to decelerate The Australian dollar has edged lower on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6419, down 0.20%.

11-10-2023 08:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD drifting ahead of UK GDP

UK growth expected to rebound in August Fed members more dovish due to increase in US yields The British pound is calm on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2297, up 0.10%. The UK economy has been struggling and GDP declined by 0.5% m/m in July.

11-10-2023 06:59 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro calm as German inflation falls, FOMC eyed

German inflation confirmed at 4.5% Fed members say spike in Treasuries could push inflation lower The euro continues to have an uneventful week. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0613, up 0.08%. German inflation falls to 4.5% German inflation was confirmed at 4.5% y/y in September, sharply lower than the August reading of 6.1%.

11-10-2023 05:00 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential bearish reversal looms

Counter trend rebound hit the 15,140 resistance. A bearish reversal candlestick was sighted at the close of yesterday’s US session which suggests that the recent two weeks of rally is unlikely the start of a new impulsive bullish move sequence. The recent pull-back seen in the US 10-year Treasury yield has almost reached its upward-sloping 20-day moving average now acting as a support at around 4.55% that may lead to a continuation of the medium-term uptrend of the Treasury yield. The start of

11-10-2023 03:07 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/CAD: Loonie rally stalls ahead of key support; Commodities Diverge

Oil rally cools and prices settle below $86 a barrel US diesel export to Europe approach highest levels since 2019 Wall Street awaits key CPI report and bank earnings The Canadian dollar continues to rally against the US dollar as global bond prices slide and oil prices soften after the surge from the Israel-Hamas war. The North American growth exceptionalism story has seen both the US and Canadian excel. Both countries posted robust payrolls data but the outlook for further tightening by the

10-10-2023 16:03 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY drifting, eyes FOMC minutes

The Japanese yen is drifting on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.67, up 0.10%. The Bank of Japan continues to stick to its script that inflation is transient and that it has no plans to phase out its monetary stimulus.

10-10-2023 13:02 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Pound moves higher, BoE points to pressure on consumers

BoE says consumer debt rising Fed members say spike in Treasuries could lower inflation The British pound is higher on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2273, up 0.29%. The Bank of England's financial policy committee (FPC) voiced concern about consumer borrowing.

10-10-2023 11:58 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD drifting after mixed confidence data

Australian consumer confidence rebounds, business confidence eases Fed members say higher bond yields could cool inflation The Australian dollar is unchanged on Tuesday, trading at 0.6412. Australian consumer confidence rebounds, business confidence ticks lower Australia's Westpac consumer confidence index rebounded in October with a 2.9% gain to 82, up from 79.7 in September. This was the highest level in six months, but consumer confidence remains deep in pessimistic territory, below the ne

10-10-2023 07:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US30 - Risk appetite improves amid more balanced Fed commentary

Fed pares back hawkish commentary Risk appetite improves for now US30 faces major tests of resistance Equity markets are bouncing back on Tuesday after a risk-averse start to the week, buoyed perhaps by some promising Fed commentary on Monday. It would appear the recent surge in bond yields hasn't gone unnoticed at the central bank, to the extent that Fed officials are coming across as less hawkish in their views. Higher yields have been cited by various policymakers in what appears to be a sig

10-10-2023 06:01 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Podcast - Oil prices may tick higher due to geopolitical tension in the Middle East after the shock attack on Israel and US CPI looms

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss the surprise attack on Israel over the weekend, geopolitical risk that may see an uptick, and its ramifications on higher oil prices due to a possibility of supply disruptions that are likely to revive the stagflation narrative, and key US CPI data out on this Friday, one of the decision factors for Fed officials to determine whether to implement one last hike on its current interest rate hiking cycle.

10-10-2023 01:59 GMT by Kelvin Wong

CHF/JPY Technical: Continuation of potential bullish impulsive up move

The 4-week of decline from late August 2023 has reached a key inflection point where the CHF/JPY may kickstart another bullish impulsive up move within its major uptrend. Price actions of CHF/JPY have cleared above its prior downward sloping 20-day moving average last Friday, 6 October. Watch the key short-term support at 163.60. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “CHF/JPY Technical: Bullish exhaustion sighted below the key resistance of 166.60” published on 12 September 2023. Cl

10-10-2023 01:26 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Canadian dollar extends gains after jobs report

Canadian dollar continues to gain ground US, Canada post strong employment reports The Canadian dollar continues to show momentum after a strong jobs report on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3618, down 0.32%. Last week ended with better-than-expected job growth in both Canada and the US.

09-10-2023 13:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD edges lower, confidence data next

Australian consumer confidence expected to decline by 0.7% Australian business confidence projected to fall to -2 The Australian dollar lost ground earlier in the day but has pared these losses. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6381, down 0.05%. Australian confidence indicators expected to fall The markets are braced for a deceleration in consumer and business confidence indicators, which will be released on Tuesday.

09-10-2023 12:32 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/JPY: Keep your eyes on Italian yields

Safe-havens rally as Israel-Hamas war rattles markets Italy 10-year premium over Germany rises towards a 9-month high EUR/JPY appears poised to exit 155-160 range Bond investors are closely watching the widening spread of both Italian bond spreads over the German and Spanish equivalent. Surging interest rates have put a focus back on deficits and that is bad news for Italy. The recent moves with Italian yields might allow the ECB to hold off on ending a bond-buying scheme early. Italy’s budg

09-10-2023 12:07 GMT by Edward Moya

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