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Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential bearish reversal looms

Counter trend rebound hit the 15,140 resistance. A bearish reversal candlestick was sighted at the close of yesterday’s US session which suggests that the recent two weeks of rally is unlikely the start of a new impulsive bullish move sequence. The recent pull-back seen in the US 10-year Treasury yield has almost reached its upward-sloping 20-day moving average now acting as a support at around 4.55% that may lead to a continuation of the medium-term uptrend of the Treasury yield. The start of

11-10-2023 03:07 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/CAD: Loonie rally stalls ahead of key support; Commodities Diverge

Oil rally cools and prices settle below $86 a barrel US diesel export to Europe approach highest levels since 2019 Wall Street awaits key CPI report and bank earnings The Canadian dollar continues to rally against the US dollar as global bond prices slide and oil prices soften after the surge from the Israel-Hamas war. The North American growth exceptionalism story has seen both the US and Canadian excel. Both countries posted robust payrolls data but the outlook for further tightening by the

10-10-2023 16:03 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY drifting, eyes FOMC minutes

The Japanese yen is drifting on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.67, up 0.10%. The Bank of Japan continues to stick to its script that inflation is transient and that it has no plans to phase out its monetary stimulus.

10-10-2023 13:02 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Pound moves higher, BoE points to pressure on consumers

BoE says consumer debt rising Fed members say spike in Treasuries could lower inflation The British pound is higher on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2273, up 0.29%. The Bank of England's financial policy committee (FPC) voiced concern about consumer borrowing.

10-10-2023 11:58 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD drifting after mixed confidence data

Australian consumer confidence rebounds, business confidence eases Fed members say higher bond yields could cool inflation The Australian dollar is unchanged on Tuesday, trading at 0.6412. Australian consumer confidence rebounds, business confidence ticks lower Australia's Westpac consumer confidence index rebounded in October with a 2.9% gain to 82, up from 79.7 in September. This was the highest level in six months, but consumer confidence remains deep in pessimistic territory, below the ne

10-10-2023 07:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US30 - Risk appetite improves amid more balanced Fed commentary

Fed pares back hawkish commentary Risk appetite improves for now US30 faces major tests of resistance Equity markets are bouncing back on Tuesday after a risk-averse start to the week, buoyed perhaps by some promising Fed commentary on Monday. It would appear the recent surge in bond yields hasn't gone unnoticed at the central bank, to the extent that Fed officials are coming across as less hawkish in their views. Higher yields have been cited by various policymakers in what appears to be a sig

10-10-2023 06:01 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Podcast - Oil prices may tick higher due to geopolitical tension in the Middle East after the shock attack on Israel and US CPI looms

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss the surprise attack on Israel over the weekend, geopolitical risk that may see an uptick, and its ramifications on higher oil prices due to a possibility of supply disruptions that are likely to revive the stagflation narrative, and key US CPI data out on this Friday, one of the decision factors for Fed officials to determine whether to implement one last hike on its current interest rate hiking cycle.

10-10-2023 01:59 GMT by Kelvin Wong

CHF/JPY Technical: Continuation of potential bullish impulsive up move

The 4-week of decline from late August 2023 has reached a key inflection point where the CHF/JPY may kickstart another bullish impulsive up move within its major uptrend. Price actions of CHF/JPY have cleared above its prior downward sloping 20-day moving average last Friday, 6 October. Watch the key short-term support at 163.60. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “CHF/JPY Technical: Bullish exhaustion sighted below the key resistance of 166.60” published on 12 September 2023. Cl

10-10-2023 01:26 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Canadian dollar extends gains after jobs report

Canadian dollar continues to gain ground US, Canada post strong employment reports The Canadian dollar continues to show momentum after a strong jobs report on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3618, down 0.32%. Last week ended with better-than-expected job growth in both Canada and the US.

09-10-2023 13:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD edges lower, confidence data next

Australian consumer confidence expected to decline by 0.7% Australian business confidence projected to fall to -2 The Australian dollar lost ground earlier in the day but has pared these losses. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6381, down 0.05%. Australian confidence indicators expected to fall The markets are braced for a deceleration in consumer and business confidence indicators, which will be released on Tuesday.

09-10-2023 12:32 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/JPY: Keep your eyes on Italian yields

Safe-havens rally as Israel-Hamas war rattles markets Italy 10-year premium over Germany rises towards a 9-month high EUR/JPY appears poised to exit 155-160 range Bond investors are closely watching the widening spread of both Italian bond spreads over the German and Spanish equivalent. Surging interest rates have put a focus back on deficits and that is bad news for Italy. The recent moves with Italian yields might allow the ECB to hold off on ending a bond-buying scheme early. Italy’s budg

09-10-2023 12:07 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY: Safe-haven flows are the dominant trade on fear of war's spread

WSJ reports Iran helped plot attack over several weeks Safe-haven flows didn't come to Treasuries as US bond markets were closed for Columbus Day Risk aversion across the board; S&P 500 -0.5%, Gold +1.1%, WTI crude +4.3%, and USD/JPY -0.5% US stocks dropped in the wake of the Hamas attack on Israel but have pared losses after Fed's Logan downplayed the need for more rate hikes. It was supposed to be a quiet Monday morning given the Columbus day holiday, which includes the closure of the US bon

09-10-2023 11:20 GMT by Edward Moya

XAU/USD - Safe haven flows boost gold after a rough few weeks

Geopolitical uncertainty boosts gold Driven lower recently by rising yields Fib levels may offer biggest test of resistance Gold is higher at the start of the week, buoyed perhaps by some safe-haven flows against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. The dollar is also stronger which is typically a headwind for gold but it's not proving particularly problematic this morning. The yellow metal has been under immense pressure in recent weeks as investors became increasingly unsure about the in

09-10-2023 11:19 GMT by Craig Erlam

UK100 - Gives up earlier gains in risk-averse trade in the markets

UK100 outperforming buoyed by energy stocks Risk aversion weighing on broader markets Sideways trend remains in tact We're seeing a little more risk-aversion in the markets at the start of the week which is understandable considering the unfortunate events in Israel over the weekend. The surprise attack by Hamas has fueled concerns about further instability in the Middle East which could in turn disrupt oil flows at a time when the market is already extremely tight and prices are high.

09-10-2023 10:09 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro slips as German industrial production declines

German Industrial Production declines for fourth straight month The euro has started the week with losses. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0527, down 0.57%. Germany's industrial production declines German industrial production declined in August by 0.2%, following a revised -0.6% reading in July and shy of the consensus estimate of -0.1%.

09-10-2023 08:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Geopolitical risk premium on the rise may trigger another round of risk-off movement in equities

In the recent past three months, the 40% rally seen in the WTI crude oil has a significant direct correlation with the US 10-year US Treasury yield. A higher US 10-year US Treasury yield has trigged a short-term downtrend in global equities since late July 2023. WTI crude oil futures gapped up by +5% in today’s Asia opening session due to the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian militant group. A further up move above a key short-term resistance of US$89.70/barrel on WTI

09-10-2023 06:03 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Podcast - US jobs report sends financial markets on a rollercoaster ride

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. Today they discuss Wall Street's reaction to a surprisingly robust US jobs report and why the dollar and stocks reversed course. They also review Canada's impressive jobs report and discuss crude's bad week despite the significant tightness in the oil market.

06-10-2023 14:46 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD: Canada's payroll report outperforms the US

Canada's economy added 63,800 jobs, in September more than tripled expectations Canadian wages rose 5.3% vs 5.1% eyed and a 5.2% prior BOC rate hike odds rise to 41.6% for the October 25th meeting North America had quite an impressive hiring spree in September. Much of the attention went to the US NFP report, but Canada quietly outperformed their neighbor. Canada delivered robust job and wage gains, while the US saw impressive hiring but softening wages. It is clear that FX markets are thinki

06-10-2023 13:39 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - US inflation and earnings, central banker appearances in abundance

This week will deliver a make-or-break moment for Fed rate hike expectations. The main event will be the September inflation report. Expectations are for both headline and core inflation to post 0.3% month-over-month gains in September, while headline year-over-year inflation will drop a tick to 3.6% and core’s annual reading will ease from 4.3% to 4.1%. In September, gas prices were relatively stable, car prices rose, and some core services were sticky.

06-10-2023 11:20 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY: Hot NFP report sends dollar higher after US economy has best job growth since January

US jobs gains broadest since January; 336,000 created vs 170,000 eyed Wages unexpectedly came in cooler than expected; holding steady with a 0.2% monthly pace and on annual basis down from 4.3% to 4.2%. Dollar surges across the board with the exception to the Canadian dollar (Canada posted a robust 63,800 job gain themselves, tripling their consensus estimate).

06-10-2023 09:56 GMT by Edward Moya

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