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EUR/USD: Dollar drops as Treasury yields reverse initial surge to 5.00%
10-year Treasury tested 5.00% for the first time since 2007 This latest bond market selloff could lead to a harder-hitting economic slowdown Strategists don't believe the recent data support this bond market move; strong buying emerged once yields hit 5.00% Wall Street is trying to understand how the US economy will be able to deliver a soft landing as Treasury yields trade at cycle highs. A fourth quarter slowdown is here but that is only happening from a high baseline, which will probably be
by Edward Moya
GBP/USD drifting, UK employment report next
UK retail sales slide in September UK releases employment data on Tuesday The British pound is showing very limited movement on Monday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2154, down 0.07% UK employment expected to slide The UK delayed has delayed the release of employment and unemployment data until Tuesday, after releasing wage growth last week.
by Kenneth Fisher
Nasdaq 100 Technical: Further potential downside pressure as key support broke
Broke below a key ascending trendline on last Friday, 20 October that has acted as support for prior down moves since December 2022. Implied volatility of Nasdaq 100 measured by the CBOE VXN Index has staged a significant bullish breakout and rallied to a 7-month high of 25.31. Key short-term resistance to watch will be at 14,615. Nasdaq 100’s key component stocks Q3 earnings releases to take note of; Microsoft & Alphabet (Tuesday, 24 October) followed by Meta (Wednesday, 25 October), and Amazon
by Kelvin Wong
Japanese yen flirts with 150, PMIs next
USD/JPY briefly pushes below 150 Japan releases PMIs on Tuesday The Japanese yen is trading quietly on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.98, up 0.07%. The yen showed little movement last week, hovering just shy of the symbolic 150 line.
by Kenneth Fisher
Gold Technical: At the risk of a minor pull-back before potential new upleg
The recent three weeks of rally seen in spot Gold (XAU/USD) has been driven by geopolitical risk premium and positive momentum. The rise in the price actions of spot Gold has ignored the increase in the long-term opportunity cost of holding gold as the US 10-year Treasury yield rallied in tandem. Heightened stagflation risk is likely the cause of the ignorance of higher holding costs in Gold. The current short-term uptrend phase of spot Gold (XAU/USD) has reached an “overstretched condition” whi
by Kelvin Wong
Week Ahead - ECB set to pause tightening cycle, a big week for earnings
US Now that Fed Chair Powell signaled that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates on hold at the next policy meeting, Wall Street will look to see how high growth will peak before the economy cools in Q4.  Expectations are for the advance reading of Q3 GDP to rise from 2.1% to 4.3%.  Investors will also want to see if the September income and spending data show the consumer is still in good shape, as both readings are expected to post 0.4% monthly gains.  Big earnings for the week w
by Craig Erlam
GBP/USD - UK consumer activity cools in the run-up to the festive season
UK retail sales -0.9% in Setember (-0.3% expected) UK Gfk consumer confidence -30 in October (-20 expected) GBPUSD losing momentum near recent lows UK consumers are reining in spending in the run-up to the festive season and the latest survey from Gfk suggests it's not just the weather that's driving it. Retail sales fell 0.9% in September, far exceeding expectations of a 0.3% decline as unseasonably warm weather weighed on sales of Autumn clothing. While that's not a new phenomenon, weather is
by Craig Erlam
Canadian dollar calm ahead of retail sales
Canada to release retail sales later today Fed's Powell says inflation still too high, lower growth needed The Canadian dollar has edged higher on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3688, down 0.23%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Dollar declines extend post Powell, November is no longer live but future rate hikes still on table
Wall Street went on a mini rollercoaster ride during Fed Chair Powell's speech.  Powell's comments were mostly in-line with other officials and support the belief that policy might not be "too tight" and future rate hikes may be needed.  Powell's comments support their higher for longer mantra, but fell short of signaling a rate hike was likely in December.  Until inflation is much lower, the Fed will try to jawbone the market into thinking more hikes are possible. Fed Chair Powell Key Quotes f
by Edward Moya
Dollar softens ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech
Stocks earning driven rally supports risk assets USD softer against majority of trading partners Jobless Claims drop to lowest levels since January It’s dawning on Wall Street that despite a giant ‘wall of worry’, the Fed is probably going to have to resume raising rates.  Fed fund futures are now leaning towards one more rate hike by the January FOMC decision. After another low jobless claims report, it is clear that the US economy remains resilient and is unlikely in a position to bring infla
by Edward Moya
Euro rises, US jobless claims drop
US unemployment claims drop below 200K ECB's Lagarde expresses concern over oil inflation The euro has bounced back on Thursday, erasing the losses from a day earlier. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0573, up 0.36%. The Middle East is back in the headlines as Israel and Hamas are engaged in fierce fighting.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/USD flat as retail sales eyed
US unemployment claims fall below 200K UK retail sales expected to improve to -0.1% The British pound is drifting on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2142, almost unchanged. The UK inflation report on Wednesday was a stark reminder that inflation remains stubborn and sticky.
by Kenneth Fisher
Aussie slips on soft employment data
Australian employment falls sharply PBOC expected to maintain loan prime rates The Australian dollar has extended its losses on Thursday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6312, down 0.37%. Australia's labour market had a disappointing September, with only 6,700 jobs created.
by Kenneth Fisher
Reality has started to sink in for richly valued US long-duration and growth equities
Rising geopolitical risk premium may override the historical positive seasonality in the S&P 500 for the months of October and November. The US 10-year Treasury yield is now just a stone-throw away from 5.20% and a break above it may spiral towards 6.87% next. S&P 500’s market breadth has continued to deteriorate as only 38% of its component stocks are above their respective key 200-day moving averages. A bearish breakdown below 4,140 key support on the S&P 500 may trigger a major downtrend phas
by Kelvin Wong
GBP/JPY Technical – Impending bearish reversal
The GBP is the second weakest currency among the major US dollar pairs in the past five days. A potential bearish reversal set-up has emerged for GBP/JPY while the JPY bears seem to be cautious about Japan’s MoF intervention at around the 150.30 risk level on USD/JPY. Watch the key short-term resistance at 182.95 on the GBP/JPY. The UK pound sterling (GBP) is the second weakest currency among the major US dollar pairs based on a five-day rolling performance calculation at this time of the writi
by Kelvin Wong
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