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USD/JPY: Dollar unfazed by in-line two year auction

Two-year auction demanded a 5.055% yield, lower than prior auction yield of 5.085% Bid-to-cover 2.64x vs 2.73x prior (lower than 1-year average) Flattening trade remains: 2-year yield +3.2bps; 5-year +0.2bps; 10-year -1.9bps; 30-year -2.7bps With US debt becoming a focal point for traders, Wall Street is now paying close attention to Treasury auctions. The early afternoon two-year Treasury auction went relatively smoothly. Demand came in-line with the 1-year average with this breakdown: indir

24-10-2023 13:55 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/GBP - ECB probably done hiking as the economy edges toward recession

Weak eurozone PMIs point to further economic deterioration UK data roughly in line but downside risks remain EURGBP threatens to break above range resistance It's been another mixed session on Tuesday with investors potentially eyeing important events later in the week. The PMIs across Europe earlier in the day didn't get things off to a great start and further backed the view that the region is heading for a recession if it isn't already in one.

24-10-2023 13:27 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD: King dollar is back on US economic exceptionalism

US October Flash Services PMI rose to 50.9 vs 49.9 expected, highest reading since July 2023 Eurozone October Flash Services PMI fell to 47.8 vs 48.6 eyed, lowest reading since Feb 2021 Eurozone October Flash PMI fell to 43.0 vs 43.7 eyed, 16th straight month of contraction The US dollar rose on both resilient economic data as non-tech earnings impress across the board. The US flash PMIs came in better-than-expected, clearly outperforming what we saw earlier from Europe. The data is vindicati

24-10-2023 12:47 GMT by Edward Moya

AUD/USD extends gains, employment report next

Australia's inflation expected to decline The Australian dollar has extended this week's gains. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6357, up 0.36%. Australia's inflation expected to continue falling Australia releases inflation on a quarterly basis, which magnifies the significance of each release.

24-10-2023 10:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound edges lower as employment market cools

UK labour market cools UK Manufacturing and Service PMIs decline The British pound is slightly lower on Tuesday, after climbing 0.68% a day earlier. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2218, down 0.23%. UK job growth, unemployment rises The UK has released "experimental" employment data on Tuesday, replacing the standard labour market survey due to falling response rates.

24-10-2023 08:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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Podcast - ECB's upcoming rate pause, AU and US inflation data to monitor

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss several key highlights and events for this week; ECB monetary policy meeting (consensus is expecting a pause on interest rates in the Eurozone after ten consecutive rate hikes), Australia's Q3/monthly (Sep) inflation data, and US PCE inflation data (Sep). https://open.spotify.com/episode/3U27ENSLyHyLSVjYD6Vntn

24-10-2023 04:39 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Japanese yen shrugs after PMI releases

Japanese PMI point to softness in manufacturing and services Speculation rises that BoJ could tweak yield control policy The Japanese yen has edged higher on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.44, down 0.18%. Japan posts soft PMIs Japanese Flash PMIs for October failed to impress, but the impact on the Japanese yen was muted.

24-10-2023 04:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY bullish momentum seems to be fading

USD/JPY’s current year-to-date outperformance has started to dissipate based on a shorter-term one-month rolling basis. A disappointing Japan Services PMI (flash) for October has failed to ignite an intraday bullish movement in USD/JPY. Three main factors that are likely to be the cause; intervention risk, inter-market expectations, and momentum. Watch the key 20-day moving average on the USD/JPY, now acting as support at 149.30. The major uptrend phase of the USD/JPY in place since mid-January

24-10-2023 02:27 GMT by Kelvin Wong

NAS100 - Nerves remain ahead of PMIs on Tuesday as stocks start the week choppy

US 10-year yield above 5% for first time since 2007 Economic fears mounting NAS100 survives test of key support

23-10-2023 15:22 GMT by Craig Erlam

BTC/USD: Is Bitcoin Back?

Bitcoin hits $31,000, highest levels since July Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy Bitcoin position turns positive (average $29,582 purchase price) Major bond market yield reversal keeps cryptos broadly supported (Eth up 3.4%, Solana up 2.4%, and Dogecoin up 4.9%) Bitcoin is rallying alongside tech stocks as the bond market has a major reversal. Today's rally that took prices to a three-month high is not about spot Bitcoin ETF optimism but about a significant reversal in the dollar and 10-year Tre

23-10-2023 14:57 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD: Dollar drops as Treasury yields reverse initial surge to 5.00%

10-year Treasury tested 5.00% for the first time since 2007 This latest bond market selloff could lead to a harder-hitting economic slowdown Strategists don't believe the recent data support this bond market move; strong buying emerged once yields hit 5.00% Wall Street is trying to understand how the US economy will be able to deliver a soft landing as Treasury yields trade at cycle highs. A fourth quarter slowdown is here but that is only happening from a high baseline, which will probably be

23-10-2023 13:26 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro extends rally, German and Eurozone PMIs next

Euro rally continues Germany, eurozone PMIs to be released on Tuesday The euro has started the week with strong gains and has pushed above the 1.06 line. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0624, up 0.45%.

23-10-2023 13:24 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD drifting, UK employment report next

UK retail sales slide in September UK releases employment data on Tuesday The British pound is showing very limited movement on Monday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2154, down 0.07% UK employment expected to slide The UK delayed has delayed the release of employment and unemployment data until Tuesday, after releasing wage growth last week.

23-10-2023 09:58 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Further potential downside pressure as key support broke

Broke below a key ascending trendline on last Friday, 20 October that has acted as support for prior down moves since December 2022. Implied volatility of Nasdaq 100 measured by the CBOE VXN Index has staged a significant bullish breakout and rallied to a 7-month high of 25.31. Key short-term resistance to watch will be at 14,615. Nasdaq 100’s key component stocks Q3 earnings releases to take note of; Microsoft & Alphabet (Tuesday, 24 October) followed by Meta (Wednesday, 25 October), and Amazon

23-10-2023 07:30 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Japanese yen flirts with 150, PMIs next

USD/JPY briefly pushes below 150 Japan releases PMIs on Tuesday The Japanese yen is trading quietly on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.98, up 0.07%. The yen showed little movement last week, hovering just shy of the symbolic 150 line.

23-10-2023 07:05 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Technical: At the risk of a minor pull-back before potential new upleg

The recent three weeks of rally seen in spot Gold (XAU/USD) has been driven by geopolitical risk premium and positive momentum. The rise in the price actions of spot Gold has ignored the increase in the long-term opportunity cost of holding gold as the US 10-year Treasury yield rallied in tandem. Heightened stagflation risk is likely the cause of the ignorance of higher holding costs in Gold. The current short-term uptrend phase of spot Gold (XAU/USD) has reached an “overstretched condition” whi

23-10-2023 01:25 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - UK retail sales slump, risk-aversion into the weekend

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss UK retail sales and consumer confidence, and market sentiment going into the weekend.

20-10-2023 20:33 GMT by Craig Erlam

Week Ahead - ECB set to pause tightening cycle, a big week for earnings

US Now that Fed Chair Powell signaled that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates on hold at the next policy meeting, Wall Street will look to see how high growth will peak before the economy cools in Q4. Expectations are for the advance reading of Q3 GDP to rise from 2.1% to 4.3%. Investors will also want to see if the September income and spending data show the consumer is still in good shape, as both readings are expected to post 0.4% monthly gains. Big earnings for the week w

20-10-2023 19:15 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - UK consumer activity cools in the run-up to the festive season

UK retail sales -0.9% in Setember (-0.3% expected) UK Gfk consumer confidence -30 in October (-20 expected) GBPUSD losing momentum near recent lows UK consumers are reining in spending in the run-up to the festive season and the latest survey from Gfk suggests it's not just the weather that's driving it. Retail sales fell 0.9% in September, far exceeding expectations of a 0.3% decline as unseasonably warm weather weighed on sales of Autumn clothing. While that's not a new phenomenon, weather is

20-10-2023 08:49 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar calm ahead of retail sales

Canada to release retail sales later today Fed's Powell says inflation still too high, lower growth needed The Canadian dollar has edged higher on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3688, down 0.23%.

20-10-2023 07:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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