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Euro under pressure ahead of ECB meeting
ECB expected to pause at today's meeting The euro continues to lose ground and has fallen over 1% since Monday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0545, down 0.19%. Will the ECB take a pause? It has been a long time coming, but barring a major surprise, the ECB will hold rates at today's meeting.
by Kenneth Fisher
Gold Technical: Bullish impulsive up move may have resumed
The minor pull-back of Spot Gold (XAU/USD) from last Friday, 20 October high of US$1,997 may have ended on Tuesday, 24 October with an intraday low of US$1,953. Daily and 1-hour RSI indicators are showing a revival of bullish momentum. Next intermediate resistances are at US$2,006 and US$2,028/2,037. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Gold Technical: At the risk of a minor pull-back before potential new upleg” published on 23 October 2023. Click here for a recap. Spot Gold (XAU
by Kelvin Wong
USD/JPY: Hovering around 150 as Japanese bond yields steadily rise
Japan 10-year bond yields rose 1.5bps to 0.852% Odds of a yield curve control adjustment are growing for next week's BOJ meeting Dollar-yen vulnerable to a surge above 150 on a robust US Q3 GDP print The pressure is building on the Bank of Japan. As the global bond market selloff resumes, Japan's ultra-easy monetary policy stance has allowed excessive yen weakness.
by Edward Moya
USD/CAD: BOC's hawkish hold provides little relief for loonie
Bank of Canada holds rates steady at 5.00% for a second straight meeting; keeps door open for future hikes Canadian dollar initially falls to a 7-month low against the greenback Easing war fears keep oil prices remain heavy but they are off session lows The Bank of Canada kept rates on hold at 5.00% for a second straight time. The bank upgraded their inflation forecast, which means they are maintaining a tightening bias going forward.  The BOC statement noted that the council is “concerned that
by Edward Moya
NAS100 - Big Tech Remains in Focus Even as Microsoft and Alphabet Fail to Provide a Boost
Alphabet disappoints on the cloud AI boosts Microsoft Major test of support for NAS100 It hasn't been the most thrilling session so far on Wednesday but there is plenty still to come over the next couple of days which could see activity pick up. Earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet could have been the catalyst that kicked things off this week but the contrasting results appear to have left investors wondering which way to turn.
by Craig Erlam
USD/JPY tiptoeing just shy of 150
Japanese yen remains close to 150 US GDP expected to accelerate to 4.5% Dollar-yen is unchanged on Wednesday, trading at 149.91 in the North American session. Will yen break past 150? Like an acrobat on a tightrope, the yen has been hovering within a whisker of the 150 level. This has continued for almost two weeks, with investors keeping peeled eyes on the yen, waiting for it to breach the symbolic 150 line.
by Kenneth Fisher
Australian dollar falls despite CPI rise
Australia's CPI accelerates US PMIs show slight improvement The Australian dollar rose about 40 basis points on Wednesday after Australia's CPI surprised to the upside, but has reversed directions and is in negative territory. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6335, down 0.32%. Australia's CPI accelerates Australian inflation was hotter than expected in the third quarter and that could translate into the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking rates after four consecutive pauses. Aus
by Kenneth Fisher
Russell 2000 Technical: The weakest may get weaker again
Russell 2000 has staged a major bearish breakdown from its “Symmetrical Triangle” range support in place since June/September 2022 which also coincided with the current major swing lows areas of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 formed last year. A further potential spike up in the ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread may trigger further downside pressure in the Russell 2000. Watch the key short-term resistance at 1,715. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Russell 2000 Te
by Kelvin Wong
EUR/AUD bearish breakdown supported by additional China fiscal stimulus and AU inflation
Weak PMI readings from the Eurozone, an increase in China’s budget deficit ratio, and renewed inflationary pressures in Australia may trigger a persistent bearish sentiment loop in EUR/AUD. Watch the key short-term resistance at 1.6700 for EUR/AUD. A break below 1.6250 key medium-term support on the EUR/AUD may trigger a multi-week bearish impulsive down move. The Euro (EUR) tumbled overnight throughout the US session as it erased its prior gains against the US dollar recorded on Monday, 23 Oc
by Kelvin Wong
USD/JPY: Dollar unfazed by in-line two year auction
Two-year auction demanded a 5.055% yield, lower than prior auction yield of  5.085% Bid-to-cover 2.64x vs 2.73x prior (lower than 1-year average) Flattening trade remains: 2-year yield +3.2bps; 5-year +0.2bps; 10-year -1.9bps; 30-year -2.7bps With US debt becoming a focal point for traders, Wall Street is now paying close attention to Treasury auctions. The early afternoon two-year Treasury auction went relatively smoothly.  Demand came in-line with the 1-year average with this breakdown: indir
by Edward Moya
EUR/GBP - ECB probably done hiking as the economy edges toward recession
Weak eurozone PMIs point to further economic deterioration UK data roughly in line but downside risks remain EURGBP threatens to break above range resistance It's been another mixed session on Tuesday with investors potentially eyeing important events later in the week. The PMIs across Europe earlier in the day didn't get things off to a great start and further backed the view that the region is heading for a recession if it isn't already in one.
by Craig Erlam
EUR/USD: King dollar is back on US economic exceptionalism
US October Flash Services PMI rose to 50.9 vs 49.9 expected, highest reading since July 2023 Eurozone October Flash Services PMI fell to 47.8 vs 48.6 eyed, lowest reading since Feb 2021 Eurozone October Flash PMI fell to 43.0 vs 43.7 eyed, 16th straight month of contraction The US dollar rose on both resilient economic data as non-tech earnings impress across the board.  The US flash PMIs came in better-than-expected, clearly outperforming what we saw earlier from Europe.  The data is vindicati
by Edward Moya
AUD/USD extends gains, employment report next
Australia's inflation expected to decline The Australian dollar has extended this week's gains. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6357, up 0.36%. Australia's inflation expected to continue falling Australia releases inflation on a quarterly basis, which magnifies the significance of each release.
by Kenneth Fisher
British pound edges lower as employment market cools
UK labour market cools UK Manufacturing and Service PMIs decline The British pound is slightly lower on Tuesday, after climbing 0.68% a day earlier. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2218, down 0.23%. UK job growth, unemployment rises The UK has released "experimental" employment data on Tuesday, replacing the standard labour market survey due to falling response rates.
by Kenneth Fisher
Podcast - ECB's upcoming rate pause, AU and US inflation data to monitor
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss several key highlights and events for this week; ECB monetary policy meeting (consensus is expecting a pause on interest rates in the Eurozone after ten consecutive rate hikes), Australia's Q3/monthly (Sep) inflation data, and US PCE inflation data (Sep). https://open.spotify.com/episode/3U27ENSLyHyLSVjYD6Vntn
by Kelvin Wong
Japanese yen shrugs after PMI releases
Japanese PMI point to softness in manufacturing and services Speculation rises that BoJ could tweak yield control policy The Japanese yen has edged higher on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.44, down 0.18%. Japan posts soft PMIs Japanese Flash PMIs for October failed to impress, but the impact on the Japanese yen was muted.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY bullish momentum seems to be fading
USD/JPY’s current year-to-date outperformance has started to dissipate based on a shorter-term one-month rolling basis. A disappointing Japan Services PMI (flash) for October has failed to ignite an intraday bullish movement in USD/JPY. Three main factors that are likely to be the cause; intervention risk, inter-market expectations, and momentum. Watch the key 20-day moving average on the USD/JPY, now acting as support at 149.30. The major uptrend phase of the USD/JPY in place since mid-January
by Kelvin Wong
BTC/USD: Is Bitcoin Back?
Bitcoin hits $31,000, highest levels since July Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy Bitcoin position turns positive (average $29,582 purchase price) Major bond market yield reversal keeps cryptos broadly supported (Eth up 3.4%, Solana up 2.4%, and Dogecoin up 4.9%) Bitcoin is rallying alongside tech stocks as the bond market has a major reversal.  Today's rally that took prices to a three-month high is not about spot Bitcoin ETF optimism but about a significant reversal in the dollar and 10-year Tre
by Edward Moya
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