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CHF/JPY Technical: At risk of a multi-day corrective decline reinforced by a hotter Tokyo CPI

Several key bearish technical elements have emerged on the CHF/JPY. The Tokyo-area inflationary data for October has surpassed expectations that revive a potential hawkish guidance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s upcoming monetary policy decision next Tuesday, 31 October. Watch the short-term key resistance of 167.60 on CHF/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “CHF/JPY further potential up move reinforced by CHF safe haven status” published on 16 October 2023.

27-10-2023 06:54 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/JPY edges lower, Tokyo Core CPI rises

Tokyo Core CPI climbs higher than expected US GDP jumps 4.9% The Japanese yen has steadied after three straight days of losses. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.11, down 0.19%. Strong Tokyo Core CPI puts the heat on BoJ Tokyo Core CPI climbed 2.7% y/y in October, above 2.5% in September which was also the consensus estimate.

27-10-2023 05:05 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Brent Crude - Oil remains volatile amid economic uncertainty

Economic fears mounting Concerns of wider conflict in Middle East abating Brent may have entered consolidation It's been a volatile week in the oil market, with prices today down around 2% after rebounding a similar amount a day earlier. The economy remains a downside factor for oil prices, with traders clearly concerned about growth prospects amid high interest rates.

26-10-2023 14:18 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY breaks above 150, US GDP soars

Japanese yen falls below 150 line US GDP jumps 4.9% The Japanese yen is down slightly on Thursday, and the drop was enough to send the yen below the key 150 line. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.33, up 0.08%. Japanese yen breaches 150, is intervention next? The Japanese yen has been hovering just shy of the 150 line for two weeks and it seemed just a matter of time before it would break below this symbolic but critical level.

26-10-2023 13:44 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP - ECB may consider rate cuts earlier than it wants to admit

ECB holds as expected Downside growth risks a concern EURGBP fails to hold above key resistance There were no major surprises from the ECB on Thursday, with the central bank leaving rates on hold while warning they will remain high for a sufficiently long duration. However, there were signs that policymakers are a little concerned about the economic consequences of all of this tightening, most notably the repeated references to weakness in the economy.

26-10-2023 11:58 GMT by Craig Erlam

ECB React: Euro softer post dovish hold and robust US data

ECB keeps rates on hold as inflation and growth cool US Core PCE cools more-than-expected US continuing claims rise to the highest levels since May The US dollar was slightly firmer after a dovish hold by the ECB and after a handful of US economic readings boosted soft landing hopes as the labor market softened, quarterly Core PCE cooled more than expected, and economic growth surged last quarter.

26-10-2023 11:13 GMT by Edward Moya

AUD/USD slips to 12-month low on Bullock's comments

AUD/USD falls to lowest level since October 2022 US GDP expected to jump to 4.3% The Australian dollar has pared losses from earlier today. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6303, down 0.07%. Bullock shrugs off hot inflation Australian inflation was stronger than expected in the third quarter, raising expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia might respond with a rate hike after four consecutive pauses.

26-10-2023 07:54 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/JPY Technical: Bulls are in hesitant mode again as ECB looms

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “EUR/JPY Technical: Bulls may have reached a key bearish reversal zone” published on 18 September 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of the EUR/JPY have shaped the expected minor slide toward the highlighted support of 155.90 as mentioned in our previous report.

26-10-2023 07:44 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - Big tech earnings, BoC hawkish hold, ECB preview

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision, PMIs, and Thursday's ECB meeting.

26-10-2023 05:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro under pressure ahead of ECB meeting

ECB expected to pause at today's meeting The euro continues to lose ground and has fallen over 1% since Monday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0545, down 0.19%. Will the ECB take a pause? It has been a long time coming, but barring a major surprise, the ECB will hold rates at today's meeting.

26-10-2023 04:25 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Technical: Bullish impulsive up move may have resumed

The minor pull-back of Spot Gold (XAU/USD) from last Friday, 20 October high of US$1,997 may have ended on Tuesday, 24 October with an intraday low of US$1,953. Daily and 1-hour RSI indicators are showing a revival of bullish momentum. Next intermediate resistances are at US$2,006 and US$2,028/2,037. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Gold Technical: At the risk of a minor pull-back before potential new upleg” published on 23 October 2023. Click here for a recap. Spot Gold (XAU

26-10-2023 01:24 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/JPY: Hovering around 150 as Japanese bond yields steadily rise

Japan 10-year bond yields rose 1.5bps to 0.852% Odds of a yield curve control adjustment are growing for next week's BOJ meeting Dollar-yen vulnerable to a surge above 150 on a robust US Q3 GDP print The pressure is building on the Bank of Japan. As the global bond market selloff resumes, Japan's ultra-easy monetary policy stance has allowed excessive yen weakness.

25-10-2023 13:52 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD: BOC's hawkish hold provides little relief for loonie

Bank of Canada holds rates steady at 5.00% for a second straight meeting; keeps door open for future hikes Canadian dollar initially falls to a 7-month low against the greenback Easing war fears keep oil prices remain heavy but they are off session lows The Bank of Canada kept rates on hold at 5.00% for a second straight time. The bank upgraded their inflation forecast, which means they are maintaining a tightening bias going forward. The BOC statement noted that the council is “concerned that

25-10-2023 12:09 GMT by Edward Moya

NAS100 - Big Tech Remains in Focus Even as Microsoft and Alphabet Fail to Provide a Boost

Alphabet disappoints on the cloud AI boosts Microsoft Major test of support for NAS100 It hasn't been the most thrilling session so far on Wednesday but there is plenty still to come over the next couple of days which could see activity pick up. Earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet could have been the catalyst that kicked things off this week but the contrasting results appear to have left investors wondering which way to turn.

25-10-2023 12:03 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY tiptoeing just shy of 150

Japanese yen remains close to 150 US GDP expected to accelerate to 4.5% Dollar-yen is unchanged on Wednesday, trading at 149.91 in the North American session. Will yen break past 150? Like an acrobat on a tightrope, the yen has been hovering within a whisker of the 150 level. This has continued for almost two weeks, with investors keeping peeled eyes on the yen, waiting for it to breach the symbolic 150 line.

25-10-2023 10:35 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar falls despite CPI rise

Australia's CPI accelerates US PMIs show slight improvement The Australian dollar rose about 40 basis points on Wednesday after Australia's CPI surprised to the upside, but has reversed directions and is in negative territory. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6335, down 0.32%. Australia's CPI accelerates Australian inflation was hotter than expected in the third quarter and that could translate into the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking rates after four consecutive pauses. Aus

25-10-2023 06:05 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Russell 2000 Technical: The weakest may get weaker again

Russell 2000 has staged a major bearish breakdown from its “Symmetrical Triangle” range support in place since June/September 2022 which also coincided with the current major swing lows areas of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 formed last year. A further potential spike up in the ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread may trigger further downside pressure in the Russell 2000. Watch the key short-term resistance at 1,715. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Russell 2000 Te

25-10-2023 05:41 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/AUD bearish breakdown supported by additional China fiscal stimulus and AU inflation

Weak PMI readings from the Eurozone, an increase in China’s budget deficit ratio, and renewed inflationary pressures in Australia may trigger a persistent bearish sentiment loop in EUR/AUD. Watch the key short-term resistance at 1.6700 for EUR/AUD. A break below 1.6250 key medium-term support on the EUR/AUD may trigger a multi-week bearish impulsive down move. The Euro (EUR) tumbled overnight throughout the US session as it erased its prior gains against the US dollar recorded on Monday, 23 Oc

24-10-2023 21:25 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/JPY: Dollar unfazed by in-line two year auction

Two-year auction demanded a 5.055% yield, lower than prior auction yield of 5.085% Bid-to-cover 2.64x vs 2.73x prior (lower than 1-year average) Flattening trade remains: 2-year yield +3.2bps; 5-year +0.2bps; 10-year -1.9bps; 30-year -2.7bps With US debt becoming a focal point for traders, Wall Street is now paying close attention to Treasury auctions. The early afternoon two-year Treasury auction went relatively smoothly. Demand came in-line with the 1-year average with this breakdown: indir

24-10-2023 13:55 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/GBP - ECB probably done hiking as the economy edges toward recession

Weak eurozone PMIs point to further economic deterioration UK data roughly in line but downside risks remain EURGBP threatens to break above range resistance It's been another mixed session on Tuesday with investors potentially eyeing important events later in the week. The PMIs across Europe earlier in the day didn't get things off to a great start and further backed the view that the region is heading for a recession if it isn't already in one.

24-10-2023 13:27 GMT by Craig Erlam

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