OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the moves in EURUSD in light of the inflation data from the eurozone and US.
30-11-2023 17:13 GMT
by Craig Erlam
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China PMIs weaken in November
Australian dollar loses ground
US core PCE price index eases to 3.5%
The Australian dollar is slightly lower in Thursday trade. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6621, up 0.08%.
30-11-2023 11:16 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Eurozone HICP inflation 2.4% in October (2.9% in September, 2.7% expected)
Eurozone core HICP inflation 3.6% in October (4.2% in September, 3.9% expected)
EURGBP continues lower after bearish breakout on Monday
Eurozone inflation fell much further than expected in October, leaving the headline HICP rate within touching distance of the ECB's 2% target.
While policymakers have continued to push back against talk of rate cuts, the questions will be impossible to ignore now with markets pricing in
30-11-2023 09:19 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Canada's GDP expected to remain at 0.0%
The Canadian dollar is steady on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3602, up 0.11%.
Canada's GDP expected to flatline
Canada's economy has been stalling and today's GDP release is expected to confirm that trend.
30-11-2023 06:19 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Eurozone inflation expected to decline to 2.7%
ECB's Lagarde delivers remarks later today
The euro is in negative territory in Thursday trade. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0940, down 0.27%.
Eurozone inflation expected to ease to 2.7%
Germany's inflation rate declined sharply in November and the eurozone is up next, with the November inflation report later today.
30-11-2023 03:39 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
An impending minor bearish reversal “Double Top” has been formed in the last two weeks.
Failure to have a clear break above 98.40 long-term secular range resistance in place since October 2007 after a fifth retest last Friday, 24 November.
Watch the key short-term resistance at 98.00.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/JPY Technical: Holding above the 20-day moving average” published on 22 November 2023. Click here for a recap.
The price actions of the AUD/JPY cross-pair ha
30-11-2023 03:26 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
November NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs for China came in weaker than expected.
Recurring risk of the deflationary spiral in China has led to the underperformance of China & Hong Kong stock markets despite the recent bout of global risk-on-herding behaviour.
The Chinese yuan has continued to appreciate against the US dollar driven by external factors; an increasing expectation of a dovish Fed pivot to come in Q1 2024.
Watch the key medium-term resistance of 7.2675 on the USD/CNH (off
30-11-2023 00:34 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss US GDP data, Gold, and the RBNZ interest rate decision.
29-11-2023 17:28 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Australian CPI falls more than expected
AUD/USD down after four-day winning streak
The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday, after four straight winning sessions. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6623, down 0.39%.
Australia's inflation rate surprises on the downside
Australia's inflation rate rose 4.9% y/y in October, down from September's 5.6%, which was a five-month high.
29-11-2023 08:24 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Shaped four consecutive weeks of positive higher closes since 27 Oct 2023 low of 32,310.
Potential start of a major uptrend phase with next major resistance at 39,515.
Watch 35,175 key short-term support to maintain minor uptrend phase from 10 November 2023 low.
The price actions of the US Wall St 30 Index (proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) have shaped four consecutive weeks of positive higher closes since its recent October 2023 low of 32,310.
The current price level of 35,44
29-11-2023 07:09 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
RBNZ holds rates but sends a hawkish message
NZD/USD spikes 1% higher but pares gains
The New Zealand dollar surged 1% on Wednesday but has surrendered most of the gains. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6149, up 0.20%.
RBNZ delivers a hawkish hold
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the cash rate at 5.5% for a fourth straight time, as expected.
29-11-2023 06:09 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
RBNZ has maintained the OCR at 5.50% for the fourth consecutive time and matched market consensus.
Hawkish forward guidance by RBNZ where its latest projected terminal rate of the OCR has been revised upwards to 5.69% (Sep 2024) from 5.57% projected earlier in the August 2023 MPS.
The Kiwi rallied by +0.90% intraday against the US dollar and outperformed other major currencies.
No clear signs of bullish exhaustion in NZD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.
29-11-2023 01:43 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
Talking Points:
Weekly Chart Analysis
Commitment of Traders Report Analysis
Important Trading considerations for all NZD pairs.
An important day for the New Zealand Dollar this week as markets await the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate announcement, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ Rate Statement, and RBNZ Press Conference, the current official cash rate is 5.50% and the forecast is the same.
28-11-2023 12:33 GMT
by Moheb Hanna
Euro rally continues
German inflation expected to fall to 3.5%
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence index accelerates
The euro continues to rally in Tuesday trading. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0998, up 0.41%.
28-11-2023 11:52 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Australian retail sales decline by 0.2%
Australian CPI expected to fall to 5.2%
The Australian dollar has posted gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6630, up 0.35%.
Australia releases October inflation on Wednesday and is expected to fall from 5.6% to 5.2% y/y.
28-11-2023 10:42 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
RBNZ likely to maintain rates at 5.5%
US CB Consumer Confidence expected to fall
The New Zealand dollar posted slight gains earlier on Tuesday but has recovered. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6101, up 0.07%.
RBNZ expected to hold rates
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is likely to maintain the cash rate at 5.5% for a fourth straight time.
28-11-2023 07:51 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD has cleared above the key 200-day moving average now acting as a near-term support of 0.6595.
Consensus estimates are expecting a softer AU monthly CPI for October (5.2% vs. 5.6% Sep) for tomorrow, 29 November.
Recent hawkish rhetoric from newly appointed RBA governor Bullock has narrowed the discount yield spread between the 2-year AU sovereign bond over the US Treasury note.
Watch the key short-term support of 0.6570 on the AUD/USD.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “A
28-11-2023 05:17 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
ECB's Lagarde says inflation fight not over
US PMIs paint a mixed picture
The euro is almost unchanged on Tuesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0948, down 0.05%.
Lagarde says inflation fight not over
The week started with no eurozone releases, giving investors plenty of time to focus on remarks from ECB President Lagarde to an EU parliamentary committee.
28-11-2023 03:32 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data releases that centered on inflation with the Fed-preferred PCE gauge for October out on this Thursday, 30 November together with Eurozone flash CPI for November. On Wednesday, 29 November, Australia will release its monthly CPI indicator for October, where market participants are likely to keep a close watch as new RBA Governor Bullock has a more hawkish vibe than her predecessor, her recent speech
27-11-2023 21:25 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
OPEC+ decision made bigger by four-day delay
Global economic outlook to impact the group's cuts?
Brent consolidating near recent lows
The OPEC+ meeting will be this week's most impactful event in oil markets. Not just because any decision could have direct consequences for price and therefore inflation but also due to the meeting already being pushed back by four days, so there's clearly some disagreement within the alliance.
27-11-2023 12:21 GMT
by Craig Erlam