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WTI Oil Technical: Positive elements intact ex-post OPEC+

Earlier rally in WTI crude oil fizzled out ex-post OPEC+ meeting due to uncertainty over 2024 oil supply cut commitments from members. The strongest commitment came from Saudi Arabia where it will extend its its voluntary 1 million barrels per day supply through Q1 2024 while Angola has decided to go against its newly reduced supply target. Technical analysis suggests several positive elements in WTI crude oil despite the uncertainty over the demand and supply dynamics of the oil market. Watch t

01-12-2023 00:55 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Hedging the Markets - ECB rate cut eyed after inflation data (video)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the moves in EURUSD in light of the inflation data from the eurozone and US.

30-11-2023 17:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

Aussie falls, recovers on soft Chinese data

China PMIs weaken in November Australian dollar loses ground US core PCE price index eases to 3.5% The Australian dollar is slightly lower in Thursday trade. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6621, up 0.08%.

30-11-2023 11:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP - Down for sixth day as eurozone inflation falls again

Eurozone HICP inflation 2.4% in October (2.9% in September, 2.7% expected) Eurozone core HICP inflation 3.6% in October (4.2% in September, 3.9% expected) EURGBP continues lower after bearish breakout on Monday Eurozone inflation fell much further than expected in October, leaving the headline HICP rate within touching distance of the ECB's 2% target. While policymakers have continued to push back against talk of rate cuts, the questions will be impossible to ignore now with markets pricing in

30-11-2023 09:19 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar steady ahead of GDP

Canada's GDP expected to remain at 0.0% The Canadian dollar is steady on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3602, up 0.11%. Canada's GDP expected to flatline Canada's economy has been stalling and today's GDP release is expected to confirm that trend.

30-11-2023 06:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD drops ahead of eurozone CPI

Eurozone inflation expected to decline to 2.7% ECB's Lagarde delivers remarks later today The euro is in negative territory in Thursday trade. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0940, down 0.27%. Eurozone inflation expected to ease to 2.7% Germany's inflation rate declined sharply in November and the eurozone is up next, with the November inflation report later today.

30-11-2023 03:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/JPY Technical: At risk of a minor decline sequence

An impending minor bearish reversal “Double Top” has been formed in the last two weeks. Failure to have a clear break above 98.40 long-term secular range resistance in place since October 2007 after a fifth retest last Friday, 24 November. Watch the key short-term resistance at 98.00. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/JPY Technical: Holding above the 20-day moving average” published on 22 November 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of the AUD/JPY cross-pair ha

30-11-2023 03:26 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Deflationary spiral is still a recurring risk in China, but the yuan remains resilient

November NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs for China came in weaker than expected. Recurring risk of the deflationary spiral in China has led to the underperformance of China & Hong Kong stock markets despite the recent bout of global risk-on-herding behaviour. The Chinese yuan has continued to appreciate against the US dollar driven by external factors; an increasing expectation of a dovish Fed pivot to come in Q1 2024. Watch the key medium-term resistance of 7.2675 on the USD/CNH (off

30-11-2023 00:34 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - US GDP, RBNZ holds

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss US GDP data, Gold, and the RBNZ interest rate decision.

29-11-2023 17:28 GMT by Craig Erlam

Australian dollar falls as inflation cools

Australian CPI falls more than expected AUD/USD down after four-day winning streak The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday, after four straight winning sessions. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6623, down 0.39%. Australia's inflation rate surprises on the downside Australia's inflation rate rose 4.9% y/y in October, down from September's 5.6%, which was a five-month high.

29-11-2023 08:24 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US DJIA Technical: Bullish impulsive upmove remains intact

Shaped four consecutive weeks of positive higher closes since 27 Oct 2023 low of 32,310. Potential start of a major uptrend phase with next major resistance at 39,515. Watch 35,175 key short-term support to maintain minor uptrend phase from 10 November 2023 low. The price actions of the US Wall St 30 Index (proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) have shaped four consecutive weeks of positive higher closes since its recent October 2023 low of 32,310. The current price level of 35,44

29-11-2023 07:09 GMT by Kelvin Wong

New Zealand dollar spikes after RBNZ decision

RBNZ holds rates but sends a hawkish message NZD/USD spikes 1% higher but pares gains The New Zealand dollar surged 1% on Wednesday but has surrendered most of the gains. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6149, up 0.20%. RBNZ delivers a hawkish hold The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the cash rate at 5.5% for a fourth straight time, as expected.

29-11-2023 06:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/USD: RBNZ fired a hawkish missile

RBNZ has maintained the OCR at 5.50% for the fourth consecutive time and matched market consensus. Hawkish forward guidance by RBNZ where its latest projected terminal rate of the OCR has been revised upwards to 5.69% (Sep 2024) from 5.57% projected earlier in the August 2023 MPS. The Kiwi rallied by +0.90% intraday against the US dollar and outperformed other major currencies. No clear signs of bullish exhaustion in NZD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.

29-11-2023 01:43 GMT by Kelvin Wong

RBNZ Official Cash Rate - NZD/USD Technical Analysis

Talking Points: Weekly Chart Analysis Commitment of Traders Report Analysis Important Trading considerations for all NZD pairs. An important day for the New Zealand Dollar this week as markets await the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate announcement, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ Rate Statement, and RBNZ Press Conference, the current official cash rate is 5.50% and the forecast is the same.

28-11-2023 12:33 GMT by Moheb Hanna

Euro punches above 1.10, German CPI next

Euro rally continues German inflation expected to fall to 3.5% US Conference Board Consumer Confidence index accelerates The euro continues to rally in Tuesday trading. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0998, up 0.41%.

28-11-2023 11:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar rises ahead of CPI

Australian retail sales decline by 0.2% Australian CPI expected to fall to 5.2% The Australian dollar has posted gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6630, up 0.35%. Australia releases October inflation on Wednesday and is expected to fall from 5.6% to 5.2% y/y.

28-11-2023 10:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/USD eyes RBNZ rate meeting

RBNZ likely to maintain rates at 5.5% US CB Consumer Confidence expected to fall The New Zealand dollar posted slight gains earlier on Tuesday but has recovered. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6101, up 0.07%. RBNZ expected to hold rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is likely to maintain the cash rate at 5.5% for a fourth straight time.

28-11-2023 07:51 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD: Bullish breakout ahead of monthly AU CPI data

AUD/USD has cleared above the key 200-day moving average now acting as a near-term support of 0.6595. Consensus estimates are expecting a softer AU monthly CPI for October (5.2% vs. 5.6% Sep) for tomorrow, 29 November. Recent hawkish rhetoric from newly appointed RBA governor Bullock has narrowed the discount yield spread between the 2-year AU sovereign bond over the US Treasury note. Watch the key short-term support of 0.6570 on the AUD/USD. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “A

28-11-2023 05:17 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Euro shrugs after Lagarde comments

ECB's Lagarde says inflation fight not over US PMIs paint a mixed picture The euro is almost unchanged on Tuesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0948, down 0.05%. Lagarde says inflation fight not over The week started with no eurozone releases, giving investors plenty of time to focus on remarks from ECB President Lagarde to an EU parliamentary committee.

28-11-2023 03:32 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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Podcast - Inflation watch in US, Eurozone and AU. Volatile oil prices ahead of OPEC+

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data releases that centered on inflation with the Fed-preferred PCE gauge for October out on this Thursday, 30 November together with Eurozone flash CPI for November. On Wednesday, 29 November, Australia will release its monthly CPI indicator for October, where market participants are likely to keep a close watch as new RBA Governor Bullock has a more hawkish vibe than her predecessor, her recent speech

27-11-2023 21:25 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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