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RBNZ has maintained the OCR at 5.50% for the fourth consecutive time and matched market consensus. Hawkish forward guidance by RBNZ where its latest projected terminal rate of the OCR has been revised upwards to 5.69% (Sep 2024) from 5.57% projected earlier in the August 2023 MPS. The Kiwi rallied by +0.90% intraday against the US dollar and outperformed other major currencies. No clear signs of bullish exhaustion in NZD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.

29-11-2023 01:43 GMT by Kelvin Wong

RBNZ Official Cash Rate - NZD/USD Technical Analysis

Talking Points: Weekly Chart Analysis Commitment of Traders Report Analysis Important Trading considerations for all NZD pairs. An important day for the New Zealand Dollar this week as markets await the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate announcement, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ Rate Statement, and RBNZ Press Conference, the current official cash rate is 5.50% and the forecast is the same.

28-11-2023 12:33 GMT by Moheb Hanna

Euro punches above 1.10, German CPI next

Euro rally continues German inflation expected to fall to 3.5% US Conference Board Consumer Confidence index accelerates The euro continues to rally in Tuesday trading. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0998, up 0.41%.

28-11-2023 11:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar rises ahead of CPI

Australian retail sales decline by 0.2% Australian CPI expected to fall to 5.2% The Australian dollar has posted gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6630, up 0.35%. Australia releases October inflation on Wednesday and is expected to fall from 5.6% to 5.2% y/y.

28-11-2023 10:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/USD eyes RBNZ rate meeting

RBNZ likely to maintain rates at 5.5% US CB Consumer Confidence expected to fall The New Zealand dollar posted slight gains earlier on Tuesday but has recovered. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6101, up 0.07%. RBNZ expected to hold rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is likely to maintain the cash rate at 5.5% for a fourth straight time.

28-11-2023 07:51 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD: Bullish breakout ahead of monthly AU CPI data

AUD/USD has cleared above the key 200-day moving average now acting as a near-term support of 0.6595. Consensus estimates are expecting a softer AU monthly CPI for October (5.2% vs. 5.6% Sep) for tomorrow, 29 November. Recent hawkish rhetoric from newly appointed RBA governor Bullock has narrowed the discount yield spread between the 2-year AU sovereign bond over the US Treasury note. Watch the key short-term support of 0.6570 on the AUD/USD. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “A

28-11-2023 05:17 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Euro shrugs after Lagarde comments

ECB's Lagarde says inflation fight not over US PMIs paint a mixed picture The euro is almost unchanged on Tuesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0948, down 0.05%. Lagarde says inflation fight not over The week started with no eurozone releases, giving investors plenty of time to focus on remarks from ECB President Lagarde to an EU parliamentary committee.

28-11-2023 03:32 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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Podcast - Inflation watch in US, Eurozone and AU. Volatile oil prices ahead of OPEC+

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data releases that centered on inflation with the Fed-preferred PCE gauge for October out on this Thursday, 30 November together with Eurozone flash CPI for November. On Wednesday, 29 November, Australia will release its monthly CPI indicator for October, where market participants are likely to keep a close watch as new RBA Governor Bullock has a more hawkish vibe than her predecessor, her recent speech

27-11-2023 21:25 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Brent Crude - Oil price choppy ahead of Thursday's OPEC+ meeting

OPEC+ decision made bigger by four-day delay Global economic outlook to impact the group's cuts? Brent consolidating near recent lows The OPEC+ meeting will be this week's most impactful event in oil markets. Not just because any decision could have direct consequences for price and therefore inflation but also due to the meeting already being pushed back by four days, so there's clearly some disagreement within the alliance.

27-11-2023 12:21 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - A steady start as recovery rally starts to lose momentum

US GDP, inflation, and jobless claims to come this week BoE Governor Bailey insists no rate cuts for the "foreseeable future" GBPUSD losing momentum at key technical zone It's been quite a calm start to the week which isn't entirely surprising given the lack of events on the calendar today. All data now, particularly that of the US, is being looked at through the prism of what it will mean for the final central bank meeting of the year and the new projections it'll be accompanied by. Since the

27-11-2023 11:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

Japanese yen rises ahead of BoJ inflation

BoJ Core CPI expected to remain unchanged at 3.4% US posts mixed PMI report The Japanese yen has started the week in positive territory. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.87, down 0.39%. Japanese yen eyes BoJ Core CPI Japan's core inflation rate has been moving higher.

27-11-2023 09:06 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar extends gains, retail sales next

Australian dollar extends gains Australian retail sales expected to decelerate to 0.1% The Australian dollar has extended its gains at the start of the week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6603, up 0.28%.

27-11-2023 06:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

CHF/JPY Technical: Bearish elements sighted below the all-time high of 170.54

Bearish readings seen in the daily and hourly RSI momentum indicators have reinforced the weakening medium-term and short-term impulsive up moves of CHF/JPY. Watch the key short-term resistance at 169.65 for CHF/JPY. The major uptrend phase of the CHF/JPY has started to show signs of bullish exhaustion at this juncture which increases the risk of a multi-week corrective decline to retest its 50-day moving and the median line of a major ascending channel in place since 13 January 2023 low, actin

27-11-2023 00:42 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/GBP - Germany on the brink of recession, UK consumer confidence improving

German double-dip recession likely after 0.1% contraction in Q3 UK consumer confidence improves but remains weak EURGBP appears to fail again near range high German uncertainty weighing on the single currency The euro is slipping against the pound at the end of the week with economic data highlighting the challenges facing the bloc. Nowhere is that more evident than in Germany which appears to be on the brink of a double-dip recession and facing immense uncertainty over its budget for next year

24-11-2023 08:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

Japanese yen shrugs as core CPI ticks higher

Japanese core inflation rises US PMIs expected to show little change The Japanese yen is unchanged on Friday, trading at 149.57. Japan's core inflation rises to 2.9% Japan's core CPI rose slightly in October to 2.9% y/y, up from 2.8% in September and just below the consensus estimate of 3.0%. The core CPI print excludes fresh food but includes energy.

24-11-2023 06:51 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Germany 30 Technical: Bullish momentum remains intact

Key elements remain positive that support the ongoing short-term uptrend phase. Watch the key short-term support at 15,930. Next intermediate resistance stands at 16,200. Fig 1: Germany 30 minor short-term trend as of 24 Nov 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since its bullish breakout from its former medium-term descending channel resistance last Tuesday, 14 November, the price actions of the Germany 30 Index (a proxy for the DAX futures) have continued to exhibit positive e

24-11-2023 05:58 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/USD steady as German GDP contracts

German GDP shrinks in Q3 US to release manufacturing and services PMIs The euro is almost unchanged on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0903, down 0.03%. German economy declines German GDP posted a minor drop in the third quarter, coming in at -0.1% q/q.

24-11-2023 05:44 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/USD edges higher as retail sales beat expectations

New Zealand retail sales flatline in Q3 US releases PMIs later today The New Zealand dollar has posted slight gains on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6059, up 0.17%.

24-11-2023 04:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY: Japan’s inflation accelerated, a struggle for bulls at the 50-day moving average

Resurgence of inflationary pressures in Japan due to higher import costs from energy prices. The Bank of Japan may face renewed political pressure to normalize its current dovish monetary policy stance to negate significant JPY's weakness. Recent uptick in 10-year JGB yield from an 11-week low may trigger another potential down leg in USD/JPY. Watch the 150.20 key short-term resistance on USD/JPY. The latest nationwide Japan core inflation for October (excluding fresh food) ticked higher for th

24-11-2023 01:06 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Brent Crude - Oil volatile ahead of next week's OPEC+ meeting

OPEC+ moves meeting from 26th to 30th November Oil pares losses after initial plunge Brent remains near 4-month lows

23-11-2023 12:02 GMT by Craig Erlam

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