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GBP/USD - A steady start as recovery rally starts to lose momentum
US GDP, inflation, and jobless claims to come this week BoE Governor Bailey insists no rate cuts for the "foreseeable future" GBPUSD losing momentum at key technical zone It's been quite a calm start to the week which isn't entirely surprising given the lack of events on the calendar today. All data now, particularly that of the US, is being looked at through the prism of what it will mean for the final central bank meeting of the year and the new projections it'll be accompanied by. Since the
by Craig Erlam
Japanese yen rises ahead of BoJ inflation
BoJ Core CPI expected to remain unchanged at 3.4% US posts mixed PMI report The Japanese yen has started the week in positive territory. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.87, down 0.39%. Japanese yen eyes BoJ Core CPI Japan's core inflation rate has been moving higher.
by Kenneth Fisher
CHF/JPY Technical: Bearish elements sighted below the all-time high of 170.54
Bearish readings seen in the daily and hourly RSI momentum indicators have reinforced the weakening medium-term and short-term impulsive up moves of CHF/JPY. Watch the key short-term resistance at 169.65 for CHF/JPY. The major uptrend phase of the CHF/JPY has started to show signs of bullish exhaustion at this juncture which increases the risk of a multi-week corrective decline to retest its 50-day moving and the median line of a major ascending channel in place since 13 January 2023 low, actin
by Kelvin Wong
EUR/GBP - Germany on the brink of recession, UK consumer confidence improving
German double-dip recession likely after 0.1% contraction in Q3 UK consumer confidence improves but remains weak EURGBP appears to fail again near range high German uncertainty weighing on the single currency The euro is slipping against the pound at the end of the week with economic data highlighting the challenges facing the bloc. Nowhere is that more evident than in Germany which appears to be on the brink of a double-dip recession and facing immense uncertainty over its budget for next year
by Craig Erlam
Japanese yen shrugs as core CPI ticks higher
Japanese core inflation rises US PMIs expected to show little change The Japanese yen is unchanged on Friday, trading at 149.57. Japan's core inflation rises to 2.9% Japan's core CPI rose slightly in October to 2.9% y/y, up from 2.8% in September and just below the consensus estimate of 3.0%. The core CPI print excludes fresh food but includes energy.
by Kenneth Fisher
Germany 30 Technical: Bullish momentum remains intact
Key elements remain positive that support the ongoing short-term uptrend phase. Watch the key short-term support at 15,930. Next intermediate resistance stands at 16,200. Fig 1: Germany 30 minor short-term trend as of 24 Nov 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since its bullish breakout from its former medium-term descending channel resistance last Tuesday, 14 November, the price actions of the Germany 30 Index (a proxy for the DAX futures) have continued to exhibit positive e
by Kelvin Wong
EUR/USD steady as German GDP contracts
German GDP shrinks in Q3 US to release manufacturing and services PMIs The euro is almost unchanged on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0903, down 0.03%. German economy declines German GDP posted a minor drop in the third quarter, coming in at -0.1% q/q.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY: Japan’s inflation accelerated, a struggle for bulls at the 50-day moving average
Resurgence of inflationary pressures in Japan due to higher import costs from energy prices. The Bank of Japan may face renewed political pressure to normalize its current dovish monetary policy stance to negate significant JPY's weakness. Recent uptick in 10-year JGB yield from an 11-week low may trigger another potential down leg in USD/JPY. Watch the 150.20 key short-term resistance on USD/JPY. The latest nationwide Japan core inflation for October (excluding fresh food) ticked higher for th
by Kelvin Wong
NZD/USD rises ahead of retail sales
New Zealand retail sales expected to decline by 0.8% US markets closed for Thanksgiving The New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Thursday. Early in the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6042, up 0.34%. Will New Zealand retail sales continue declining? Retail sales are a key gauge of consumer spending and the New Zealand consumer has been holding tightly to the purse strings.
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD edges higher as PMIs show improvement
German, Eurozone PMIs accelerate The euro is trading slightly higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0917, up 0.27%. German PMIs accelerate but still in decline German PMIs were released earlier today, presenting a cup-half-full-half-empty picture.
by Kenneth Fisher
Nikkei 225: Bulls undeterred by Japanese government economic downgrade
Recent price actions of the Nikkei 225 are still trading above its 20-day moving average despite the latest official downbeat assessment of Japan’s economy. Significant correlation flip between USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 may persist as a weaker JPY may not be a main driver to drive up the price actions of Nikkei 225. A strengthening JPY may see the outperformance of consumer-oriented TOPIX equities sectors such as Retail Sales and IT & Services. A new medium-term uptrend may have kickstarted in Nik
by Kelvin Wong
GBP/USD - FOMC encouraged, markets relaxed on UK Autumn Statement
Fed policymakers encouraged by recent data but won't get complacent BoE interest rate expectations barely changed after UK Autumn Statement GBPUSD reverses near key resistance The two big events of the last 24 hours haven't really packed the punch they occasionally can which perhaps explains why we aren't seeing big moves today. Fed determined to "proceed carefully" The FOMC minutes were arguably slightly on the dovish side, with the committee now seemingly of the view that no further hikes wi
by Craig Erlam
EUR/USD slips on ECB warning, PMIs next
ECB financial stability review warns of stress Fed minutes point to rates remaining restrictive The euro is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0864, down 0.42%. ECB says banks showing stress The ECB released its semi-annual financial stability review earlier today and warned of stress in financial stability in the eurozone.
by Kenneth Fisher
Canadian dollar dips as Canada's inflation slides
Canada's inflation rate falls to 3.1% Fed minutes indicate rates to remain restrictive The Canadian dollar continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3723, up 0.14%. Canada's inflation declines to 3.1% Canada's inflation rate fell to 3.1% y/y in October, down sharply from 3.8% in September and below the consensus estimate of 3.2%.
by Kenneth Fisher
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