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Hang Seng Index Technical: Countertrend rebound in play but not major bottoming

Short-term positive animal spirits have resurfaced in China and Hong Kong stock markets stoked by additional liquidity injection from PBoC and the creation of a “stabilization fund”. Long-term prospects are still dim as a liquidity trap scenario cannot be ruled out in the real economy due to weak consumer and business sentiment. Watch the next intermediate resistances at 16,525 and 17,130 on the Hang Seng Index, This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Easing liquidity conditions may

25-01-2024 02:42 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - Strong US PMIs, BoC holds, ECB preview

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the PMI data from the US, UK and eurozone, Bank of Canada interest rate decision, and preview tomorrow's ECB announcement.

24-01-2024 15:53 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD - Surprisingly strong US PMI surveys, BoC remains cautious

US services PMI rises to 52.9, manufacturing PMI hits 50.3 BoC holds rates USDCAD recovery stalls US economic data was surprisingly strong today, with both the services and manufacturing PMIs comfortably exceeding expectations and reinforcing the message that the economy is in good shape, even getting better. Of course, these are just surveys and can be volatile but the fact both jumped as much as they did and both are now in growth territory is very promising for the economy

24-01-2024 12:10 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD eyes Bank of Canada decision

Bank of Canada expected to pause US to release manufacturing, services PMIs The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3436, down 0.19%. Bank of Canada expected to pause The Bank of Canada will announce its first rate decision of 2024 later today.

24-01-2024 09:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen surges on hawkish BoJ

The Japanese yen has posted massive gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.94, down 0.96%. Yen rises on Ueda's hawkish comments The Bank of Japan didn't have any surprises up its sleeve at yesterday's meeting.

24-01-2024 08:43 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD - Rallies despite continued weakness in eurozone PMIs

Eurozone data remains recessionary EURUSD rebounds after surveys Is it just a corrective rally? The data from the eurozone isn't improving early in the new year, with the latest PMI surveys all remaining firmly in contraction territory. While we're continuing to see improvements in the manufacturing survey, that comes from a very low base and still some way from the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction. And it doesn't appear on course to breach that threshold any time soon. The

24-01-2024 08:33 GMT by Craig Erlam

New Zealand dollar extends gains as inflation falls

New Zealand CPI fall to 4.7% New Zealand dollar rises The New Zealand dollar has posted strong gains on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6132, up 0.49%. New Zealand CPI eases to 4.7% New Zealand's inflation rate was expected to slow in the fourth quarter and the estimates were right on the money.

24-01-2024 05:24 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/JPY: JPY crosses under downside pressure after BoJ’s hawkish guidance

Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields on the upmove ex-post BoJ. Positive yield premium shrinkage (JGB over the rest of the world) may put further downside pressure on JPY crosses carry trades. Watch NZD/JPY where RBNZ may reduce its hawkish rhetoric reinforced by NZ Q4’s soft inflation data. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “BoJ poised to offer guidance on the removal of short-term negative rates may spark JPY strength” published on 22 January 2024. Click here for a recap.

24-01-2024 01:12 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Bitcoin - Extends losses to more than 20% after spot ETF approvals

Bitcoin falls below $40,000 Is the bitcoin halving priced in? 50 Fib the next test Bitcoin is trading around 2% lower on Tuesday, adding to losses at the start of the week and taking the price below $40,000. The move takes the decline since peaking shortly after the SEC approved spot bitcoin ETFs to more than 20% in what appears to be another case of the rumor being heavily bought and the fact sold. That's not particularly important in the longer term and we're used to this kind of volatility

23-01-2024 11:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro steady, eyes PMIs

The euro is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0866, down 0.15%. Eurozone, German PMIs expected to remain in contraction The eurozone economy is sputtering and the road to recovery is likely to be a long one.

23-01-2024 09:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/USD stems slide, inflation next

New Zealand Services PSI eases to 48.8 New Zealand inflation expected to ease to 0.5% The New Zealand dollar has edged higher on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6086, up 0.17%. New Zealand's economy has struggled in the fourth quarter and a soft services release won't help things.

23-01-2024 09:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/JPY - Remains near highs as the BoJ stands pat in January

BoJ leaves the policy rate unchanged at -0.1% Maintains 10-year JGB yield target around 0% with a flexible buffer of 1% GBPJPY hangs around recent highs despite hints at future rate moves The Bank of Japan opted to leave interest rates and its yield curve control policy unchanged today, indicating a decision on negative rates may come at one of the upcoming meetings. It was always likely that no decision would be taken today as the central bank awaits the outcome of the spring wage negot

23-01-2024 08:50 GMT by Craig Erlam

Japanese yen pares gains after BOJ meeting

The Japanese yen is slightly lower in the European session on Tuesday. USD/JPY fell 0.54% after today's BoJ policy meeting but has pared most of those gains and is trading at 147.82, down 0.18%. Bank of Japan stays pat As expected, the BoJ maintained its policy settings at today's meeting.

23-01-2024 06:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD Technical: Potential short-term bullish reversal for AUD supported by China’s stock market rescue package

The higher beta risk-sensitive AUD has started to see a turnaround to the upside against the US dollar in the past two sessions. Reinforced by risk-on behaviour in global stock markets coupled with today’s China Premier Li Qiang’s verbal intervention that advocated more “forceful” measures to negate the rout in the China equities. AUD/USD’s minor bullish reversal unfolding with next intermediate resistances at 0.6640 and 0.6735. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “EUR/AUD Techni

23-01-2024 01:53 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - BOJ and ECB in the focus with US PCE inflation

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data and events; another horrendous start of the week for China and the Hong Kong stock markets, as they continued to plummet with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index that recorded a daily loss of -2.44%, edging closer to almost a two-decade low. Market participants seem to be getting impatient with Chinese top policymakers in terms of the current pace and magnitude of stimulus measures.

22-01-2024 20:09 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/GBP - Has the time come for the ECB to pivot?

ECB meeting on Thursday Markets expecting the first rate cut in April EURGBP trading near summer lows ahead of the meeting Markets are pricing in a lot of rate cuts from the ECB this year and we could learn on Thursday whether they are correct to do so. The central bank has been resistant to speculation that it could be preparing to cut rates in March and that level of pushback has encouraged traders to push back the first move to April but it's still pricing in 125 basis points

22-01-2024 12:23 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro in calm waters as data calendar light

The euro is showing little movement on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0890, down 0.07%. Will ECB pause again? The European Common Bank meets on Thursday for the first policy meeting of the year.

22-01-2024 11:43 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar eyes Services PSI

New Zealand releases Performance of Services Index on Tuesday The New Zealand dollar is flat at the start of the week. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6116, up 0.01%.

22-01-2024 08:35 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY calm ahead of BoJ announcement

Bank of Japan to make announcement on Tuesday The Japanese yen is in a holding pattern on Monday as the Bank of Japan holds a two-day meeting today and Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.05, down 0.08%. The yen has been on a rollercoaster in recent weeks.

22-01-2024 05:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

BoJ poised to offer guidance on the removal of short-term negative rates may spark JPY strength

10-year JGB implied volatility has tapered downwards since the implementation of flexible YCC in October 2023, lowering the odds of disorderly movements in the JGB Elevated demand-pull inflation (excluding fresh food & energy) in Japan may prompt BoJ to upgrade its inflation (excluding fresh food & energy) forecasts for FY 2024 & FY 2025. Technical analysis has detected bearish elements in USD/JPY where JPY may start to strengthen in the short term towards 146.25 and a break below it exposes 1

22-01-2024 02:19 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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