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UK retail sales expected to dip by 0.5% on Friday The British pound has edged lower on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2655, down 0.20%. Markets brace for retail sales downswing What goes up must come down.

18-01-2024 09:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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GBP/USD - Volatile after UK inflation and US retail sales data

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam gives his analysis of GBPUSD in light of the UK inflation and US retail sales releases.

18-01-2024 06:57 GMT by Craig Erlam

US SPX 500: Bulls are getting lethargic, and at risk of a minor corrective decline

The US 10-year Treasury yield has pierced above 4.06% & its 200-day moving average; a sign that recent easing liquidity conditions have started to abate. A 3-year low seen in the implied correlation among S&P 500 constituents may trigger an imminent spike in the VIX. The S&P 500 is now at risk of forming a short-term top below 4,820 resistance. After stellar Q4 quarterly and 2023 annual performances of 11.24% and 24.23% respectively, the US S&P 500 has started 2024 on a lacklustre footing, in

18-01-2024 05:41 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Aussie stems the bleeding

The Australian dollar has stabilized after a nasty tumble this week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6555, up 0.06%.

18-01-2024 03:57 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Dow - Soft Chinese data, strong US consumer

Chinese economy slowly recovering US retail sales perform strongly in December Is a correction underway in the Dow? Chinese consumer activity remains a point of weakness for the economy The Chinese data wasn't great, although again it's not the end of the world either. Unemployment unexpectedly crept higher to 5.1%, while GDP in the fourth quarter rose to 5.2%, marginally lower than expected.

17-01-2024 16:40 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Market Insights Podcast - Chinese data, UK inflation, US retail sales

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the Chinese economic figures, UK and eurozone inflation data and US retail sales.

17-01-2024 15:26 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD Technical Analysis – Australian Dollar Employment Change

Talking Points Australia's Employment Change and Unemployment Rate AUS/USD Weekly Chart Technical Analysis and COT Update AUD/USD 1-hour Chart Technical Analysis Australia's Employment Change and Unemployment Rate The Employment Change numbers in Australia have been steady and often beating its forecasts for the past few months; the forecasted change in Employment for December 2023 numbers reflects a potential shift in course;

17-01-2024 12:57 GMT by Moheb Hanna

AUD/USD falls to 5-week low on weak Chinese data

Australian dollar declines sharply Chinese GDP and retail sales miss estimates Fed's Waller urges caution with regard to rate cuts The Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6538, down 0.69%.

17-01-2024 12:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP - Inflation data casts doubt over interest rate cuts

UK inflation data surprises to the upside Eurozone inflation unrevised for December EURGBP breaks lower after UK data UK inflation figures were slightly higher than expected, with headline CPI actually rising a little back to 4%, rather than falling to 3.8%, and core remaining at 5.1% rather than falling to 4.9%. This is hardly a massive blow but investors have become accustomed recently to data delivering and more, so this is perhaps being viewed as a bigger setback than it actually is. This i

17-01-2024 11:49 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar falls, inflation rises

Canada's inflation rate rises to 3.4% The US dollar continues to gain ground against its Canadian counterpart. In Wednesday's European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3518, up 0.18%. Canada's inflation rate rises to 3.4% Canada's annual inflation rate rose in December to 3.4%, up from 3.1% in November and matched the market estimate. Interestingly, the US inflation report for December also climbed from 3.1% to 3.4%.

17-01-2024 06:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound gains ground as UK inflation rises

UK inflation rises unexpectedly GBP/USD climbs higher The British pound has edged higher after UK inflation rose unexpectedly in December. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2694, up 0.47%. UK inflation rises to 3.9% UK inflation has a tendency to surprise the markets and that happened again on Wednesday as December CPI ticked upwards to 4.0% y/y, up from 3.9% in November and above the consensus estimate of 3.8%.

17-01-2024 05:12 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/AUD Technical: AUD’s underperformance remains sticky

Current bout of risk-off behaviour has triggered an underperformance of higher beta risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD. China Premier Li Qiang's speech in Davos has signalled “a lesser need” for China to enact massive stimulus measures which in turn may see lesser industrial commodities exports from Australia in the near term. AUD’s weakness has led to a short-term uptrend unfolding in the EUR/AUD cross pair. The risk-off behaviour has continued to spill over to today’s 17 January Asian

17-01-2024 01:18 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Gold - Struggling near previous record highs and showing signs of weakness

Bearish correction underway? A lot of rate cuts are now priced in Fib bounce may be a bearish signal Gold is trading a little lower on Tuesday after bouncing higher once again in recent sessions. The yellow metal remains buoyed by very aggressive rate-cutting expectations, particularly in the US, but at the same time, it is struggling to generate fresh momentum around the prior record highs, near $2,070.

16-01-2024 11:41 GMT by Craig Erlam

Australian dollar tumbles as risk appetite falls

Australian dollar slides as risk appetite slides The Australian dollar is sharply lower against the US dollar on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.65897 down 0.94% and has fallen to its lowest level in a month. US dollar powers higher The US dollar struggled against the major currencies in the last two months of 2023 but has surged out of the gates early in the new year.

16-01-2024 11:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP - UK wage growth cools which could enable earlier BoE rate cuts

UK wages (inc bonus) rise 6.5% in the three months to November (7.2% in three months to October) Markets expect 125 basis points of rate cuts from the BoE this year Double bottom forms in EURGBP Labor market figures this morning have kicked off a big week of economic data for the UK in a promising way, with wage growth a highlight from the report. For a long time now, central banks have indicated that a significant amount of pressure from higher interest rates will need to be applied

16-01-2024 08:36 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar lower ahead of CPI data

Canada's inflation rate expected to rise to 3.4% Inflation expectations for businesses ease The US dollar has posted gains against all of the major currencies on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3494, up 0.50%. January hasn't been kind to the Canadian dollar, which is down 1.8% this month against the greenback and is trading at one-month lows.

16-01-2024 06:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound slips as wage growth slides

UK wages ease to 6.5% GBP/USD falls UK to release inflation on Wednesday The British pound is sharply lower on Tuesday after a solid UK employment report. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2641, down 0.68%. UK wage growth falls sharply The UK employment report indicated that the labour market remains solid while wage growth is falling rapidly.

16-01-2024 05:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

WTI Oil Technical: Sideways within a potential minor bottoming configuration

Ongoing hostilities in the Middle East region and the Red Sea shipping route have put a potential “floor” in oil prices due to the increasing risk of supply disruptions. The demand side has remained weak as China’s top policymakers have signalled a less forceful approach in enacting stimulus measures after PBoC left its 1-year MLF rate unchanged at 2.50%. Sideways for now between US$76.05/78.40 and US$69.20 for WTI crude oil. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical:

16-01-2024 01:23 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - UK and Japan inflation looms with China Q4 GDP, industrial production, retail sales.

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data and events; a mixed-bag start of the week among major Asian stock markets; Japan's Nikkei 225 continued its bullish tone (+0.91% Monday, 15 January) after it hit a 34-year high last week and cleared above the 35,000 psychological level. In contrast, China and Hong Kong benchmark stock indices ended Monday, 15 January with losses; CSI 300 (-0.10%), and Hang Seng Index (-0.17%) as China's central bank

15-01-2024 21:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

GBP/USD - Consolidation ahead of jobs, inflation and retail data

Jobs, inflation, and retail data to come from the UK Markets expect 125 basis points of rate cuts Consolidation in GBPUSD ahead of the data We'll get a lot of economic data from the UK this week which will tell us how the economy ended the year and whether markets are on the right path with respect to rate cuts in 2024. Markets are pricing in 125 basis points of cuts this year, although even more so than with other major central banks, there appears to be quite an array of views on what they'l

15-01-2024 17:38 GMT by Craig Erlam

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