OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam gives his analysis of EURGBP after the disappointing retail sales release from the UK.
19-01-2024 07:24 GMT
by Craig Erlam
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Canada's retail sales expected to fall to zero
The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement for a second straight day. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3496, down 0.13%.
Markets brace for stagnant retail sales
Canada releases retail sales for November later today, and the markets are expecting no growth, following a 0.7% gain in October.
19-01-2024 06:46 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
A poor December for UK retailers
Is weaker demand a good thing for the BoE?
GBPJPY eases off eight-year highs
UK retail sales fell sharply in December as consumers tightened their pursestrings during what is normally a hugely important time of year for retailers.
Any sense of optimism from the jump in sales in November was short-lived, with the decline in sales last month as widespread as it was steep. Everyone from food retailers to department stores saw a sharp reduction in sales as consumers
19-01-2024 05:23 GMT
by Craig Erlam
UK retail sales slide 3.2% in December
GBP/USD edges lower
The British pound has weakened slightly on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2682, down 0.18%.
UK retail sales take a tumble
The markets were expecting a letdown from December retail sales after a strong November reading, but nobody was expecting a multi-year drop.
19-01-2024 04:19 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Investors remain hopeful
Data not delivering
Double top forming in the Nasdaq?
Stock markets are modestly higher on Thursday, recovering some of Wednesday's losses as investors seemingly struggle to determine where things stand.
There's clearly a desperate desire to cling on to the optimism that enabled such a strong end to the year but unlike in that period, the data isn't really playing ball. The releases we've seen so far this month have been fine and in the main, perfectly in keeping with t
18-01-2024 12:34 GMT
by Craig Erlam
US jobless claims fall last week
Australian employment unexpectedly falls in December
A head and shoulders potentially forming in AUDUSD
Data from the US today has been a little positive, although, in the case of jobless claims, it's hard to say at this stage how much. Initial claims unexpectedly fell below 200,000 but arguably more promising, continuing claims have continued to edge down which suggests the market for those laid off has improved slightly.
18-01-2024 12:22 GMT
by Craig Erlam
US unemployment claims fall to 187K
Japan's core CPI expected to ease to 2.3% on Friday
The Japanese yen has stabilized on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.04, down 0.08%.
Is yen headed back to 150?
The Japanese yen continues to show strong volatility.
18-01-2024 10:57 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
UK retail sales expected to dip by 0.5% on Friday
The British pound has edged lower on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2655, down 0.20%.
Markets brace for retail sales downswing
What goes up must come down.
18-01-2024 09:09 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam gives his analysis of GBPUSD in light of the UK inflation and US retail sales releases.
18-01-2024 06:57 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The US 10-year Treasury yield has pierced above 4.06% & its 200-day moving average; a sign that recent easing liquidity conditions have started to abate.
A 3-year low seen in the implied correlation among S&P 500 constituents may trigger an imminent spike in the VIX.
The S&P 500 is now at risk of forming a short-term top below 4,820 resistance.
After stellar Q4 quarterly and 2023 annual performances of 11.24% and 24.23% respectively, the US S&P 500 has started 2024 on a lacklustre footing, in
18-01-2024 05:41 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
The Australian dollar has stabilized after a nasty tumble this week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6555, up 0.06%.
18-01-2024 03:57 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Chinese economy slowly recovering
US retail sales perform strongly in December
Is a correction underway in the Dow?
Chinese consumer activity remains a point of weakness for the economy
The Chinese data wasn't great, although again it's not the end of the world either.
Unemployment unexpectedly crept higher to 5.1%, while GDP in the fourth quarter rose to 5.2%, marginally lower than expected.
17-01-2024 16:40 GMT
by Craig Erlam
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the Chinese economic figures, UK and eurozone inflation data and US retail sales.
17-01-2024 15:26 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Talking Points
Australia's Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
AUS/USD Weekly Chart Technical Analysis and COT Update
AUD/USD 1-hour Chart Technical Analysis
Australia's Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
The Employment Change numbers in Australia have been steady and often beating its forecasts for the past few months; the forecasted change in Employment for December 2023 numbers reflects a potential shift in course;
17-01-2024 12:57 GMT
by Moheb Hanna
Australian dollar declines sharply
Chinese GDP and retail sales miss estimates
Fed's Waller urges caution with regard to rate cuts
The Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6538, down 0.69%.
17-01-2024 12:03 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
UK inflation data surprises to the upside
Eurozone inflation unrevised for December
EURGBP breaks lower after UK data
UK inflation figures were slightly higher than expected, with headline CPI actually rising a little back to 4%, rather than falling to 3.8%, and core remaining at 5.1% rather than falling to 4.9%. This is hardly a massive blow but investors have become accustomed recently to data delivering and more, so this is perhaps being viewed as a bigger setback than it actually is.
This i
17-01-2024 11:49 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Canada's inflation rate rises to 3.4%
The US dollar continues to gain ground against its Canadian counterpart. In Wednesday's European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3518, up 0.18%.
Canada's inflation rate rises to 3.4%
Canada's annual inflation rate rose in December to 3.4%, up from 3.1% in November and matched the market estimate. Interestingly, the US inflation report for December also climbed from 3.1% to 3.4%.
17-01-2024 06:50 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
UK inflation rises unexpectedly
GBP/USD climbs higher
The British pound has edged higher after UK inflation rose unexpectedly in December. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2694, up 0.47%.
UK inflation rises to 3.9%
UK inflation has a tendency to surprise the markets and that happened again on Wednesday as December CPI ticked upwards to 4.0% y/y, up from 3.9% in November and above the consensus estimate of 3.8%.
17-01-2024 05:12 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Current bout of risk-off behaviour has triggered an underperformance of higher beta risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD.
China Premier Li Qiang's speech in Davos has signalled “a lesser need” for China to enact massive stimulus measures which in turn may see lesser industrial commodities exports from Australia in the near term.
AUD’s weakness has led to a short-term uptrend unfolding in the EUR/AUD cross pair.
The risk-off behaviour has continued to spill over to today’s 17 January Asian
17-01-2024 01:18 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
Bearish correction underway?
A lot of rate cuts are now priced in
Fib bounce may be a bearish signal
Gold is trading a little lower on Tuesday after bouncing higher once again in recent sessions.
The yellow metal remains buoyed by very aggressive rate-cutting expectations, particularly in the US, but at the same time, it is struggling to generate fresh momentum around the prior record highs, near $2,070.
16-01-2024 11:41 GMT
by Craig Erlam