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EUR/GBP Technical: Short-term relative weakness of EUR reasserts against GBP
Persistent underperformance of the EUR against GBP as the EUR/GBP cross pair reintegrated below the 200-day moving average. The hourly RSI momentum indicator of EUR/GBP has flashed out a bearish momentum condition. Watch the 0.8615 key short-term resistance with intermediate supports coming in at 0.8550 and 0.8500. In the long term, the EUR/GBP cross pair is still evolving within a major downtrend phase as depicted by its price actions’ oscillations within a descending channel in place since th
by Kelvin Wong
US Crude Oil - Price Action Technical Analysis
Talking Points US Crude Oil falls after Saudi Arabia cuts prices Technical Analysis Weekly Chart Technical Analysis 8-Hour Chart Crude Oil prices ended 2023 with 3 months of consecutive declines, prices fell from a peak of $95 in September 2023 down to $70.75 today, a drop of almost 25% in price, shrugging off all the extra premiums resulting from the current political risks, and taking the markets back closer to its standard supply and demand dynamics.
by Moheb Hanna
EUR/USD - Edging higher after bounce off key Fibonacci level
Euro area data points to further weakness in early 2024 Germany remains a concern amid weak factory numbers EURUSD higher but struggling around 1.10 It was a volatile end to the week for the dollar, with the jobs report initially causing a stir followed by the unexpectedly weak ISM services PMI. Today it's been Europe that's delivered a selection of data, albeit none quite as important as the two from the US on Friday. Retail sales for November were in line with expectations at -0.3% while the
by Craig Erlam
Australian dollar dips ahead of retail sales
The Australian dollar is coming off a rough week and is under pressure on Monday. AUD/USD was down as much as 0.50% earlier but has recovered these losses and is unchanged on the day at 0.6717. US nonfarm payrolls beat forecast US nonfarm payrolls, released on Friday, accelerated in December and beat the forecast.
by Kenneth Fisher
Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential short-term bounce on the horizon
Recent decline has almost reached the upward-sloping 50-day moving average. Short-term RSI momentum indicator has suggested downside momentum has eased. Potential short-term bounce above 16,160 key short-term support. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential start of minor corrective decline” published on 21 December 2023. Click here for a recap. The US Nas 100 Index (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 futures) has tumbled towards the 16,160/125 intermediate s
by Kelvin Wong
Canadian dollar shrugs off weak job numbers
Canada's employment growth falls close to zero US nonfarm payrolls hits 216,000 higher than expected USD/CAD has edged higher on Monday and is trading at 1.3387 in Europe, up 0.19%. There are no tier-1 releases out of the US or Canada today, so we can expect a quiet day for USD/CAD. The US dollar jumped out of the gates in the first week of 2024 and rose 0.83% against the Canadian dollar.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY edges lower ahead of Tokyo Core CPI
US nonfarm payrolls rise more than expected to 216,000 Tokyo Core CPI expected to ease to 2.1% The Japanese yen has started the week with slight gains and is trading at 144.39 in the European session, up 0.16%. It was a rough week for the yen, which declined 2.5% against the US dollar, which has looked sharp against most of the majors since New Year's. US nonfarm payrolls stronger than expected US nonfarm payrolls ended 2023 on a strong note.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY Technical: US dollar strength fizzled out ex-post US NFP
Last week’s broad-based US dollar strength has dissipated ex-post US non-farm payroll data with the continuation of its underperformance against the GBP. The US labour market has started to show growing slack where the labour force participation rate has dipped to 62.5%, its largest monthly decline in almost three years and full-time employment recorded its steepest drop since April 2020.
by Kelvin Wong
USD/JPY - US jobs data a setback but no game changer
US NFP 216,000 (170,000 expected, 173,000 in November revised down from 199,000) Average hourly earnings (MoM) 0.4% (0.3% expected, 0.4% in November) USDJPY rebounds off key Fibonacci level The first US jobs report of the year was an early reminder to investors that things don't always go their way, despite the experience of the last couple of months. Whether it was just exuberant festive cheer or something more, investors bounced into the end of 2023 full of hope that not only is the tightenin
by Craig Erlam
Japanese yen extends losses ahead of nonfarm payrolls
Japanese yen continues to slide US nonfarm payrolls expected to ease to 170,000 The Japanese yen continues to lose ground and is down for a fourth straight day on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.14, up 0.36%. The US dollar took a nasty spill in December against the major currencies.
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD slips, Eurozone inflation rises
Eurozone inflation rises, core rate dips US nonfarm payrolls expected to drop to 177,000 The euro is in negative territory on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0908, down 0.33%. Eurozone inflation rises to 2.9% Eurozone inflation has been falling and dropped to 2.4% y/y in November, within striking distance of the 2% target.
by Kenneth Fisher
Canadian dollar eyes US, Canada jobs data
US nonfarm payrolls expected to fall to 177,000 Canada's employment change projected to drop to 13,500 The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday, but that could change in the North American session, when Canada and the US release the December employment reports. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3363, up 0.10%. The Canadian dollar looked sharp in December, with gains of 2.27%.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY Technical: Countertrend USD rebound remains intact ahead of US NFP
The US dollar is the top performer against the JPY on a 5-day rolling basis (+3%). A monthly US NFP jobs gain of between +240K to +260K may ignite another bout of US dollar rally. Bullish momentum is supporting a potential extension of the ongoing countertrend rebound in USD/JPY. Watch the next intermediate resistance at 146.70/147.45
by Kelvin Wong
Euro rebounds after FOMC meeting, Geman CPI rises
Fed uncertain as timing of rate cuts German CPI rises, but core rate falls The euro has edged higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0950, up 0.26%. Fed unclear on rate cut timing The December policy meeting was highly significant as the Fed made a major pivot.
by Kenneth Fisher
Dow - Investors awaiting Fed minutes but jobs data more important
Stocks pare gains at the start of the year JOLTS data points to less heat in the labor market Dow turns lower after a period of divergence Stock markets are spending a second day in the red, continuing the softer start to the year as traders await minutes from the December FOMC meeting. Given the remarkable end to 2023, it's not particularly surprising that we're seeing a little profit-taking at this stage.
by Craig Erlam
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