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EUR/AUD Technical: AUD’s underperformance remains sticky

Current bout of risk-off behaviour has triggered an underperformance of higher beta risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD. China Premier Li Qiang's speech in Davos has signalled “a lesser need” for China to enact massive stimulus measures which in turn may see lesser industrial commodities exports from Australia in the near term. AUD’s weakness has led to a short-term uptrend unfolding in the EUR/AUD cross pair. The risk-off behaviour has continued to spill over to today’s 17 January Asian

17-01-2024 01:18 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Gold - Struggling near previous record highs and showing signs of weakness

Bearish correction underway? A lot of rate cuts are now priced in Fib bounce may be a bearish signal Gold is trading a little lower on Tuesday after bouncing higher once again in recent sessions. The yellow metal remains buoyed by very aggressive rate-cutting expectations, particularly in the US, but at the same time, it is struggling to generate fresh momentum around the prior record highs, near $2,070.

16-01-2024 11:41 GMT by Craig Erlam

Australian dollar tumbles as risk appetite falls

Australian dollar slides as risk appetite slides The Australian dollar is sharply lower against the US dollar on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.65897 down 0.94% and has fallen to its lowest level in a month. US dollar powers higher The US dollar struggled against the major currencies in the last two months of 2023 but has surged out of the gates early in the new year.

16-01-2024 11:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP - UK wage growth cools which could enable earlier BoE rate cuts

UK wages (inc bonus) rise 6.5% in the three months to November (7.2% in three months to October) Markets expect 125 basis points of rate cuts from the BoE this year Double bottom forms in EURGBP Labor market figures this morning have kicked off a big week of economic data for the UK in a promising way, with wage growth a highlight from the report. For a long time now, central banks have indicated that a significant amount of pressure from higher interest rates will need to be applied

16-01-2024 08:36 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar lower ahead of CPI data

Canada's inflation rate expected to rise to 3.4% Inflation expectations for businesses ease The US dollar has posted gains against all of the major currencies on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3494, up 0.50%. January hasn't been kind to the Canadian dollar, which is down 1.8% this month against the greenback and is trading at one-month lows.

16-01-2024 06:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound slips as wage growth slides

UK wages ease to 6.5% GBP/USD falls UK to release inflation on Wednesday The British pound is sharply lower on Tuesday after a solid UK employment report. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2641, down 0.68%. UK wage growth falls sharply The UK employment report indicated that the labour market remains solid while wage growth is falling rapidly.

16-01-2024 05:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

WTI Oil Technical: Sideways within a potential minor bottoming configuration

Ongoing hostilities in the Middle East region and the Red Sea shipping route have put a potential “floor” in oil prices due to the increasing risk of supply disruptions. The demand side has remained weak as China’s top policymakers have signalled a less forceful approach in enacting stimulus measures after PBoC left its 1-year MLF rate unchanged at 2.50%. Sideways for now between US$76.05/78.40 and US$69.20 for WTI crude oil. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical:

16-01-2024 01:23 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - UK and Japan inflation looms with China Q4 GDP, industrial production, retail sales.

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data and events; a mixed-bag start of the week among major Asian stock markets; Japan's Nikkei 225 continued its bullish tone (+0.91% Monday, 15 January) after it hit a 34-year high last week and cleared above the 35,000 psychological level. In contrast, China and Hong Kong benchmark stock indices ended Monday, 15 January with losses; CSI 300 (-0.10%), and Hang Seng Index (-0.17%) as China's central bank

15-01-2024 21:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

GBP/USD - Consolidation ahead of jobs, inflation and retail data

Jobs, inflation, and retail data to come from the UK Markets expect 125 basis points of rate cuts Consolidation in GBPUSD ahead of the data We'll get a lot of economic data from the UK this week which will tell us how the economy ended the year and whether markets are on the right path with respect to rate cuts in 2024. Markets are pricing in 125 basis points of cuts this year, although even more so than with other major central banks, there appears to be quite an array of views on what they'l

15-01-2024 17:38 GMT by Craig Erlam

Aussie extends losses, consumer confidence next

The Australian dollar continues to lose ground. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6657, down 0.43%. In Australia, consumers remain pessimistic about the economy.

15-01-2024 11:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro drifting ahead of German CPI

The euro is showing limited movement on Monday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0948, down 0.02%. German inflation is on the rise Germany's inflation rate climbed to 3.7% y/y in December, up from 3.2% in November, which was a two-year low.

15-01-2024 07:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD eyes UK wage growth

UK wage growth expected to drop to 6.8% UK GDP rises 0.3%, but risk of recession remains The British pound has started the week with slight losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2725, down 0.21%. Wage growth expected to continue falling The UK will release employment data on Tuesday and the spotlight will be on wage growth.

15-01-2024 05:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold: Potential bullish breakout from 6-week range

Positive price actions in Gold (XAU/USD) as it reintegrated back above its 20-day moving average. A continuation of the medium-term bearish trend on the US 10-year Treasury real yield below 1.82% key resistance may add further bullish impetus for Gold. A rise in geopolitical risk premium may also support a firmer Gold. Watch the US$2,015 key short-term support on Gold (XAU/USD).

14-01-2024 23:55 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - US inflation boost, UK GDP, oil spike, bitcoin ETF

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss today's US inflation data, UK GDP figures and the possibility of a recession, the recent moves in oil and the launch of the first bitcoin ETFs.

12-01-2024 13:04 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - Markets price in more Fed rate cuts after US PPI data, UK to avoid recession?

US PPI data weaker than expected UK could avoid a recession after November GDP recovery GBPUSD breakout coming after consolidation? Stock markets are ending the week on a high, buoyed by weaker PPI readings from the US that suggest inflation will keep falling in the coming months. The PPI data has repaired the damage done by yesterday's CPI data which came in a little higher than expected.

12-01-2024 12:53 GMT by Craig Erlam

Japanese yen edges higher after US PPI rises

US PPI rises 1%, missing estimate of 1.3% The Japanese yen has edged higher on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.80, down 0.3e%. The US Producer Price Index followed the CPI's lead and rose in December, with a gain of 1%.

12-01-2024 08:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis Forecast

Canada CPI and BOC Overnight Rate schedule Technical Analysis for Monthly, Daily, and 4-hour charts The Canadian Dollar opened 2024 with a decline against the US Dollar, the Forex pair USD/CAD rose from 1.3180 in late December 2023 to its current average price of 1.3380 and has been trading near this level for a few days. The pair held steady throughout the US CPI data release as well as the recent upside move in oil prices.

12-01-2024 08:12 GMT by Moheb Hanna

Australian dollar edges up as China CPI slips

China's CPI declines by 0.3% Fed's Mester pushes back against March rate cut expectations The Australian dollar has edged higher on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6693, up 0.09%. Policy makers at Australia's central bank are keeping a close eye on this week's inflation data out of Australia and China.

12-01-2024 06:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD yawns after strong UK GDP

UK GDP rebounds to 0.3%, but economy remains weak US inflation hotter than expected at 3.4% The British pound is showing limited movement on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2769, up 0.05%. UK GDP bounces back in November The British economy grew in November by 0.3% m/m, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in October and edging above the market estimate of 0.2%.

12-01-2024 04:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie dips as US inflation higher than expected

The Australian dollar has posted sharp losses on Thursday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6655, down 0.68%. US inflation report sends greenback higher US inflation was higher than expected in December with a gain of 3.4%.

11-01-2024 12:25 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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