Fed statement and press conference key this week
US jobs report eyed, wages in particular
EURUSD bearish momentum increases
29-01-2024 12:31 GMT
by Craig Erlam
All news & analysis
Stay up-to-date with the latest market developments. Discover breaking news, in-depth analysis, expert commentary, and market insights that affects all asset classes, from forex and commodities to stocks and indices. MarketPulse news will help you stay ahead so you can make informed trading decisions.
The euro is lower on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/US is trading at 1.0806, down 0.44%.
When will ECB cut rates?
There were no surprises from the European Central Bank, which maintained the benchmark rate at 4.0% at last week's meeting.
29-01-2024 12:12 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Monday after an uneventful week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6603, up o.41%.
Australian retail sales expected to downturn
The markets are braced for a soft retail sales report on Tuesday, with December's consensus estimate standing at -1.0%.
29-01-2024 08:26 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The Swiss franc has edged higher on Monday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8618, down 0.25%.
SNB concerned about Swiss franc's surge
The Swiss National Bank isn't shy about intervening on the currency markets, as it views intervention as an important tool to keep the Swiss franc competitive for export purposes.
29-01-2024 05:43 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Higher US 10-year Treasury real yield and rising geopolitical risk premium have created a floor and cap for Gold (XAU/USD) at US$2,000 and US$2,040 respectively.
Historical volatility of Gold (XAU/USD) has slipped to a 4-month low, increasing the odds of an impending volatility breakout scenario.
The direction of the volatility breakout is likely to be reinforced by this Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy guidance.
Positive momentum has started to emerge ahead of FOMC.
29-01-2024 01:02 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss today's inflation data from the US, the ECB meeting and next week in the markets.
26-01-2024 18:41 GMT
by Craig Erlam
US PCE m/m 0.2%, core PCE m/m 0.2%
US spending increases 0.7% in December
USDCAD doesn't break double top neckline
Inflation, income and spending data for the US was released on Friday and broadly speaking the numbers were in line with expectations, with one outlier.
Spending last month increased 0.7%, comfortably exceeding the 0.5% that was expected. It also came on top of the upward revision to the November reading, which increased to 0.4% from 0.2% previously.
26-01-2024 10:09 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The British pound is higher on Friday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2751, up 0.34%.
UK consumer confidence rises
The UK consumer remains in a sour mood but the pessimism eased in January.
26-01-2024 09:14 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam looks at how EURUSD responded to the ECB announcement and press conference and what markets took from it.
26-01-2024 09:05 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The euro is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, trading at 1.0846 in the European session.
ECB maintains interest rates
To nobody's surprise, the European Central Bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.0% on Thursday.
26-01-2024 06:37 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The Japanese yen is drifting on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.80, up 0.10%.
Tokyo Core CPI falls to 1.6%
Tokyo Core CPI reached a significant milestone today, falling to 1.6% y/y in January, after a December reading of 2.1%.
26-01-2024 04:09 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
WTI crude oil has started to evolve into a short-term uptrend phase reinforced by the recent liquidity infusion by China's central bank, PBoC upcoming 50 bps cut on the RRR.
The current 5-day rally of WTI crude oil has reached a key medium-term resistance zone of US$79.00/79.40 with a short-term overbought condition.
At the risk of a minor mean reversion decline with intermediate supports at US$75.30 and US$74.80.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Sideways wi
26-01-2024 02:03 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
US GDP rises 3.3% (annualized) in Q4
A fairytale outcome for the US economy
GBPUSD drifts lower
US economic data continues to point to an economy that's doing very well despite the various headwinds including very high interest rates.
GDP data for the fourth quarter easily exceeded expectations, rising 3.3% on an annualized basis, adding to the increasing view that the US could be heading for a fairytale scenario, not just a soft landing.
We've spoken a lot about resilence in the US economy o
25-01-2024 12:53 GMT
by Craig Erlam
ECB leaves rates on hold
Lagarde still eyeing summer rate cut
EURUSD consolidating after correction
The European Central Bank left interest rates on hold on Thursday and claimed inflation is progressing towards its target while giving no clear guidance on when interest rates will start falling.
We came into the new year with markets pricing in a March rate cut and that is now looking increasingly difficult. Even with a late pivot.
25-01-2024 11:41 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The Japanese yen has edged lower on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.62, up 0.08%.
US GDP roars with 3.3% gain
The US economy continues to surprise with stronger-than-expected data.
25-01-2024 11:27 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
US to release
The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3513, down 0.08%.
Bank of Canada keeps rates on hold
There were no surprises from the Bank of Canada, which maintained the benchmark rate at 5% on Wednesday.
25-01-2024 07:43 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The euro is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0895, up 0.10%.
Eurozone PMIs, released on Wednesday, pointed to trouble in the manufacturing and services sectors.
25-01-2024 05:01 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Short-term positive animal spirits have resurfaced in China and Hong Kong stock markets stoked by additional liquidity injection from PBoC and the creation of a “stabilization fund”.
Long-term prospects are still dim as a liquidity trap scenario cannot be ruled out in the real economy due to weak consumer and business sentiment.
Watch the next intermediate resistances at 16,525 and 17,130 on the Hang Seng Index,
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Easing liquidity conditions may
25-01-2024 02:42 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the PMI data from the US, UK and eurozone, Bank of Canada interest rate decision, and preview tomorrow's ECB announcement.
24-01-2024 15:53 GMT
by Craig Erlam
US services PMI rises to 52.9, manufacturing PMI hits 50.3
BoC holds rates
USDCAD recovery stalls
US economic data was surprisingly strong today, with both the services and manufacturing PMIs comfortably exceeding expectations and reinforcing the message that the economy is in good shape, even getting better.
Of course, these are just surveys and can be volatile but the fact both jumped as much as they did and both are now in growth territory is very promising for the economy
24-01-2024 12:10 GMT
by Craig Erlam