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NZD/USD stems slide, inflation next
New Zealand Services PSI eases to 48.8 New Zealand inflation expected to ease to 0.5% The New Zealand dollar has edged higher on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6086, up 0.17%. New Zealand's economy has struggled in the fourth quarter and a soft services release won't help things.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/JPY - Remains near highs as the BoJ stands pat in January
BoJ leaves the policy rate unchanged at -0.1% Maintains 10-year JGB yield target around 0% with a flexible buffer of 1% GBPJPY hangs around recent highs despite hints at future rate moves The Bank of Japan opted to leave interest rates and its yield curve control policy unchanged today, indicating a decision on negative rates may come at one of the upcoming meetings. It was always likely that no decision would be taken today as the central bank awaits the outcome of the spring wage negot
by Craig Erlam
Japanese yen pares gains after BOJ meeting
The Japanese yen is slightly lower in the European session on Tuesday. USD/JPY fell 0.54% after today's BoJ policy meeting but has pared most of those gains and is trading at 147.82, down 0.18%. Bank of Japan stays pat As expected, the BoJ maintained its policy settings at today's meeting.
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD Technical: Potential short-term bullish reversal for AUD supported by China’s stock market rescue package
The higher beta risk-sensitive AUD has started to see a turnaround to the upside against the US dollar in the past two sessions. Reinforced by risk-on behaviour in global stock markets coupled with today’s China Premier Li Qiang’s verbal intervention that advocated more “forceful” measures to negate the rout in the China equities. AUD/USD’s minor bullish reversal unfolding with next intermediate resistances at 0.6640 and 0.6735. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “EUR/AUD Techni
by Kelvin Wong
Market Insights Podcast - BOJ and ECB in the focus with US PCE inflation
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data and events; another horrendous start of the week for China and the Hong Kong stock markets, as they continued to plummet with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index that recorded a daily loss of -2.44%, edging closer to almost a two-decade low. Market participants seem to be getting impatient with Chinese top policymakers in terms of the current pace and magnitude of stimulus measures.
by Kelvin Wong
EUR/GBP - Has the time come for the ECB to pivot?
ECB meeting on Thursday Markets expecting the first rate cut in April EURGBP trading near summer lows ahead of the meeting Markets are pricing in a lot of rate cuts from the ECB this year and we could learn on Thursday whether they are correct to do so. The central bank has been resistant to speculation that it could be preparing to cut rates in March and that level of pushback has encouraged traders to push back the first move to April but it's still pricing in 125 basis points
by Craig Erlam
Euro in calm waters as data calendar light
The euro is showing little movement on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0890, down 0.07%. Will ECB pause again? The European Common Bank meets on Thursday for the first policy meeting of the year.
by Kenneth Fisher
New Zealand dollar eyes Services PSI
New Zealand releases Performance of Services Index on Tuesday The New Zealand dollar is flat at the start of the week. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6116, up 0.01%.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY calm ahead of BoJ announcement
Bank of Japan to make announcement on Tuesday The Japanese yen is in a holding pattern on Monday as the Bank of Japan holds a two-day meeting today and Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.05, down 0.08%. The yen has been on a rollercoaster in recent weeks.
by Kenneth Fisher
BoJ poised to offer guidance on the removal of short-term negative rates may spark JPY strength
10-year JGB implied volatility has tapered downwards since the implementation of flexible YCC in October 2023, lowering the odds of disorderly movements in the JGB Elevated demand-pull inflation (excluding fresh food & energy) in Japan may prompt BoJ to upgrade its inflation (excluding fresh food & energy) forecasts for FY 2024 & FY 2025. Technical analysis has detected bearish elements in USD/JPY where JPY may start to strengthen in the short term towards 146.25 and a break below it exposes 1
by Kelvin Wong
Canadian dollar drifting ahead of retail sales
Canada's retail sales expected to fall to zero The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement for a second straight day. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3496, down 0.13%. Markets brace for stagnant retail sales Canada releases retail sales for November later today, and the markets are expecting no growth, following a 0.7% gain in October.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/JPY - Pulls off highs as UK retail sales plunge in December
A poor December for UK retailers Is weaker demand a good thing for the BoE? GBPJPY eases off eight-year highs UK retail sales fell sharply in December as consumers tightened their pursestrings during what is normally a hugely important time of year for retailers. Any sense of optimism from the jump in sales in November was short-lived, with the decline in sales last month as widespread as it was steep. Everyone from food retailers to department stores saw a sharp reduction in sales as consumers
by Craig Erlam
GBP/USD dips as retail sales slide
UK retail sales slide 3.2% in December GBP/USD edges lower The British pound has weakened slightly on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2682, down 0.18%. UK retail sales take a tumble The markets were expecting a letdown from December retail sales after a strong November reading, but nobody was expecting a multi-year drop.
by Kenneth Fisher
Nasdaq - A decent rebound but more data needed to justify market optimism
Investors remain hopeful Data not delivering Double top forming in the Nasdaq? Stock markets are modestly higher on Thursday, recovering some of Wednesday's losses as investors seemingly struggle to determine where things stand. There's clearly a desperate desire to cling on to the optimism that enabled such a strong end to the year but unlike in that period, the data isn't really playing ball. The releases we've seen so far this month have been fine and in the main, perfectly in keeping with t
by Craig Erlam
AUD/USD - Promising jobs and housing data from the US
US jobless claims fall last week Australian employment unexpectedly falls in December A head and shoulders potentially forming in AUDUSD Data from the US today has been a little positive, although, in the case of jobless claims, it's hard to say at this stage how much. Initial claims unexpectedly fell below 200,000 but arguably more promising, continuing claims have continued to edge down which suggests the market for those laid off has improved slightly.
by Craig Erlam
Japanese yen can't find its footing
US unemployment claims fall to 187K Japan's core CPI expected to ease to 2.3% on Friday The Japanese yen has stabilized on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.04, down 0.08%. Is yen headed back to 150? The Japanese yen continues to show strong volatility.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/USD eyes UK retail sales
UK retail sales expected to dip by 0.5% on Friday The British pound has edged lower on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2655, down 0.20%. Markets brace for retail sales downswing What goes up must come down.
by Kenneth Fisher
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