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USD/CAD - US spending data boost the greenback

US PCE m/m 0.2%, core PCE m/m 0.2% US spending increases 0.7% in December USDCAD doesn't break double top neckline Inflation, income and spending data for the US was released on Friday and broadly speaking the numbers were in line with expectations, with one outlier. Spending last month increased 0.7%, comfortably exceeding the 0.5% that was expected. It also came on top of the upward revision to the November reading, which increased to 0.4% from 0.2% previously.

26-01-2024 10:09 GMT by Craig Erlam

British pound rises as consumer confidence rises, US inflation falls

The British pound is higher on Friday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2751, up 0.34%. UK consumer confidence rises The UK consumer remains in a sour mood but the pessimism eased in January.

26-01-2024 09:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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Hedging the Markets - EUR/USD edges lower after "dovish" ECB (video)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam looks at how EURUSD responded to the ECB announcement and press conference and what markets took from it.

26-01-2024 09:05 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro edges higher as markets digest ECB pause

The euro is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, trading at 1.0846 in the European session. ECB maintains interest rates To nobody's surprise, the European Central Bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.0% on Thursday.

26-01-2024 06:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY steady after Tokyo Core CPI falls below 2%

The Japanese yen is drifting on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.80, up 0.10%. Tokyo Core CPI falls to 1.6% Tokyo Core CPI reached a significant milestone today, falling to 1.6% y/y in January, after a December reading of 2.1%.

26-01-2024 04:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

WTI Oil Technical: Approaching a key medium-term resistance, at risk of a mean reversion decline

WTI crude oil has started to evolve into a short-term uptrend phase reinforced by the recent liquidity infusion by China's central bank, PBoC upcoming 50 bps cut on the RRR. The current 5-day rally of WTI crude oil has reached a key medium-term resistance zone of US$79.00/79.40 with a short-term overbought condition. At the risk of a minor mean reversion decline with intermediate supports at US$75.30 and US$74.80. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Sideways wi

26-01-2024 02:03 GMT by Kelvin Wong

GBP/USD - Is cable topping out as US data outperforms again?

US GDP rises 3.3% (annualized) in Q4 A fairytale outcome for the US economy GBPUSD drifts lower US economic data continues to point to an economy that's doing very well despite the various headwinds including very high interest rates. GDP data for the fourth quarter easily exceeded expectations, rising 3.3% on an annualized basis, adding to the increasing view that the US could be heading for a fairytale scenario, not just a soft landing. We've spoken a lot about resilence in the US economy o

25-01-2024 12:53 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD - Drifting lower as ECB keeps cards close to its chest

ECB leaves rates on hold Lagarde still eyeing summer rate cut EURUSD consolidating after correction The European Central Bank left interest rates on hold on Thursday and claimed inflation is progressing towards its target while giving no clear guidance on when interest rates will start falling. We came into the new year with markets pricing in a March rate cut and that is now looking increasingly difficult. Even with a late pivot.

25-01-2024 11:41 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY shrugs after US GDP

The Japanese yen has edged lower on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.62, up 0.08%. US GDP roars with 3.3% gain The US economy continues to surprise with stronger-than-expected data.

25-01-2024 11:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar slips after BoC decision, USD GDP looms

US to release The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3513, down 0.08%. Bank of Canada keeps rates on hold There were no surprises from the Bank of Canada, which maintained the benchmark rate at 5% on Wednesday.

25-01-2024 07:43 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro in holding pattern ahead of ECB decision

The euro is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0895, up 0.10%. Eurozone PMIs, released on Wednesday, pointed to trouble in the manufacturing and services sectors.

25-01-2024 05:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Hang Seng Index Technical: Countertrend rebound in play but not major bottoming

Short-term positive animal spirits have resurfaced in China and Hong Kong stock markets stoked by additional liquidity injection from PBoC and the creation of a “stabilization fund”. Long-term prospects are still dim as a liquidity trap scenario cannot be ruled out in the real economy due to weak consumer and business sentiment. Watch the next intermediate resistances at 16,525 and 17,130 on the Hang Seng Index, This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Easing liquidity conditions may

25-01-2024 02:42 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Market Insights Podcast - Strong US PMIs, BoC holds, ECB preview

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the PMI data from the US, UK and eurozone, Bank of Canada interest rate decision, and preview tomorrow's ECB announcement.

24-01-2024 15:53 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD - Surprisingly strong US PMI surveys, BoC remains cautious

US services PMI rises to 52.9, manufacturing PMI hits 50.3 BoC holds rates USDCAD recovery stalls US economic data was surprisingly strong today, with both the services and manufacturing PMIs comfortably exceeding expectations and reinforcing the message that the economy is in good shape, even getting better. Of course, these are just surveys and can be volatile but the fact both jumped as much as they did and both are now in growth territory is very promising for the economy

24-01-2024 12:10 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD eyes Bank of Canada decision

Bank of Canada expected to pause US to release manufacturing, services PMIs The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3436, down 0.19%. Bank of Canada expected to pause The Bank of Canada will announce its first rate decision of 2024 later today.

24-01-2024 09:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen surges on hawkish BoJ

The Japanese yen has posted massive gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.94, down 0.96%. Yen rises on Ueda's hawkish comments The Bank of Japan didn't have any surprises up its sleeve at yesterday's meeting.

24-01-2024 08:43 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD - Rallies despite continued weakness in eurozone PMIs

Eurozone data remains recessionary EURUSD rebounds after surveys Is it just a corrective rally? The data from the eurozone isn't improving early in the new year, with the latest PMI surveys all remaining firmly in contraction territory. While we're continuing to see improvements in the manufacturing survey, that comes from a very low base and still some way from the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction. And it doesn't appear on course to breach that threshold any time soon. The

24-01-2024 08:33 GMT by Craig Erlam

New Zealand dollar extends gains as inflation falls

New Zealand CPI fall to 4.7% New Zealand dollar rises The New Zealand dollar has posted strong gains on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6132, up 0.49%. New Zealand CPI eases to 4.7% New Zealand's inflation rate was expected to slow in the fourth quarter and the estimates were right on the money.

24-01-2024 05:24 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/JPY: JPY crosses under downside pressure after BoJ’s hawkish guidance

Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields on the upmove ex-post BoJ. Positive yield premium shrinkage (JGB over the rest of the world) may put further downside pressure on JPY crosses carry trades. Watch NZD/JPY where RBNZ may reduce its hawkish rhetoric reinforced by NZ Q4’s soft inflation data. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “BoJ poised to offer guidance on the removal of short-term negative rates may spark JPY strength” published on 22 January 2024. Click here for a recap.

24-01-2024 01:12 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Bitcoin - Extends losses to more than 20% after spot ETF approvals

Bitcoin falls below $40,000 Is the bitcoin halving priced in? 50 Fib the next test Bitcoin is trading around 2% lower on Tuesday, adding to losses at the start of the week and taking the price below $40,000. The move takes the decline since peaking shortly after the SEC approved spot bitcoin ETFs to more than 20% in what appears to be another case of the rumor being heavily bought and the fact sold. That's not particularly important in the longer term and we're used to this kind of volatility

23-01-2024 11:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

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