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Nasdaq 100 Technical: At risk of staging a multi-week corrective decline
A transition from a Fed “dovish pivot” to a “normalization” pivot may put a halt to this year-end seasonal “Santa Rally” on the US stock indices. Nasdaq 100 momentum and market breadth have weakened which supports a potential medium-term (multi-week) corrective decline sequence. Watch the 20,790 downside trigger level of the Nasdaq 100. The Nasdaq 100 has reversed its bullish momentum where at the start of this week, it was the sole major US benchmark stock index to print a fresh all-time high
by Kelvin Wong
Stagflation Fears and Soaring US Yields: S&P 500's Next Move
The Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook for 2025, with plans for only two small rate cuts, has triggered a significant selloff in the S&P 500, raising concerns about stagflation. The S&P 500 experienced its biggest one-day drop since August, and the Volatility Index saw its second-largest daily jump in history. Technical analysis suggests a break in bullish structure, with the S&P 500's next move depending on the daily candle close and US Treasury Yields.
by Zain Vawda
BoE holds rates, pound surrenders gains
The British pound rose as much as 0.70% today but has given up almost all of these gains. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2560, down 0.10% on the day at the time of writing. BoE stays on the sidelines, says cuts will be 'gradual' The Bank of England joined the parade of central bank rate announcements earlier today.
by Kenneth Fisher
Brent Crude Oil Prices Toil as Market Awaits Fed Decision. Range Trading Ahead?
Oil prices rose due to lower-than-expected US crude oil stockpiles, but demand concerns remain. OPEC+ is worried about a potential increase in US oil output under a Trump presidency. From a technical perspective, oil prices are range-bound, and range trading might remain in play heading into 2025. Most Read: USD/JPY rises ahead of BoJ meeting Oil prices arrested a two day s;ump today to trade around 1% higher heading into the FOMC meeting.
by Zain Vawda
UK inflation jumps to 8-mth high, pound shrugs
British pound is showing little movement on Wednesday. Early in the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2679,  down 0.07% on the day. UK inflation climbs to 2.6% Inflation in the UK climbed to 2.6% in November, its highest level since March.
by Kenneth Fisher
FOMC Preview: What to Expect and How Will it Impact the US Dollar?
The FOMC meeting today is highly anticipated due to uncertainty surrounding future US monetary policy. Markets expect a 25 bps rate cut today and a slower pace of easing in 2025 due to President-elect Trump's policies. The Fed's reverse repo rate may be adjusted, potentially impacting the US Dollar's strength. Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Traders Await Fed Meeting: Will Prices Rally or Fall? The FOMC meeting today is key as interest rate meetings tend to be from the US. However, today's meeting is
by Zain Vawda
Gold (XAU/USD) Traders Await Fed Meeting: Will Prices Rally or Fall?
Gold prices have dropped due to increased US Treasury yields, profit-taking, and the anticipation of a less dovish Fed outlook for 2025. The upcoming Fed meeting and its economic projections, especially regarding rate cuts, will significantly impact gold prices. India's gold imports are expected to decline in December due to a lack of festivals and rising gold prices.
by Zain Vawda
Australian dollar slips on soft consumer confidence
The Australian dollar is down sharply on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6337, down 0.52% at the time of writing. Consumer confidence slides Australia's Westpac consumer confidence index declined by 2% in December, from 94.6 to 92.2.
by Kenneth Fisher
Pound steady after hot UK wage growth, CPI next
The British pound is showing little movement on Tuesday, after jumping 0.57% a day earlier. In the  European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2698, up 0.13% on the day. UK wage growth higher than expected UK wage growth excluding bonuses climbed 5.2% y/y in the three months to October, up from an upwardly revised 4.4% in the previous period and well above the market estimate or 4.6%.
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD drifting after Euro PMI reports
The euro is slightly higher on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0500, up 0.02% at the time of writing. Mixed PMI eurozone report There was mixed news from Eurozone PMIs today.
by Kenneth Fisher
BoJ Rate Hike in Focus: USD/JPY, GBP/JPY Technical Analysis
Markets are pricing in a less than 20% chance of a BoJ rate hike this Thursday, despite earlier expectations of a 70% probability. JPY weakness has resumed as rate hike expectations have fallen, potentially pushing the BoJ to act. USD/JPY shows strong bullish momentum, but a BoJ hike could lead to a significant decline.  A surprise rate hike by the BoJ could strengthen the JPY significantly, with more room for gains against the GBP than the USD.
by Zain Vawda
Pound higher as Services PMI rises, job report next
The British pound has moved higher on Monday, after declining 1% last week. In the  European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2747, up 0.30% on the day. UK Services improves, manufacturing slips The UK Services PMI rose to 51.4 in December, up from 50.8 in November, which was a 13-month low.
by Kenneth Fisher
Gold Technical: A less dovish Fed may reinforce a medium-term corrective decline
The proposed policies of Trumponomics 2.0 may ignite a further uptick in inflationary expectations in the US. Market-transacted inflationary expectations gauge, the 5-year and 10-year US breakeven inflation rates have been trending higher since September 2024. The Fed may switch its current dovish monetary policy to a “wait and see” pivot stance on 18 December FOMC. Watch the US$2,716 key medium-term resistance on Gold (XAU/USD).
by Kelvin Wong
Markets Weekly Outlook - Will Fed Rate Cut and BoJ Decision Spur Volatility?
Markets had a volatile week, with US 100 (Nasdaq 100) reaching new highs and a strong likelihood of a Fed rate cut next week. Major central bank meetings dominate the week ahead. The BoJ faces a tough decision on whether to raise interest rates, with recent data supporting a hike. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a crucial resistance level, and its performance may be influenced by the Fed's interest rate decision and outlook.
by Zain Vawda
AUD/USD: Surviving at the 0.6360 key support (for now) but the long-term trend remains bearish
RBA has shifted to a less hawkish monetary policy stance. The interest rate swaps market has started to price in a higher chance of the first RBA interest rate cut to come in February 2025. The 2-year and 10-year yield spreads between Australian government sovereign bonds and US Treasuries continued to narrow. Growing risk for AUD/USD to stage a major bearish breakdown below 0.6360. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report “AUD/USD: “Trump Trade” overshadowed a cautiously hawkish RBA, a
by Kelvin Wong
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