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The US dollar rallies on higher energy and deepening Ukraine crisis Overnight, saw another flight to safety that benefited the US dollar as the dollar index surged 0.67% to 97.39, edging slightly higher to 97.42 in Asia. The flight to safety was more uneven this time - EUR/USD and GBP/USD sank, AUD, NZD and Asian EM currencies held their own, although the reasons for that are not immediately obvious to me. EUR/USD sank 0.86% to 1.1120, where it remains this morning.

02-03-2022 05:04 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asian equities follow US markets south

Asian markets fall as oil prices surge Surging oil prices overnight sparked global growth fears as the Ukraine-Russia situation intensified and oil supply chains were thrown into chaos over sanctions. That reversed the peak-Ukraine rally of the day before and sent US markets tumbling.

02-03-2022 04:30 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

The more things change…..

The more things change, the more things stay the same. That harsh reality was dished out in spades to markets trying to price in “Peak Ukraine” by buying the dip yesterday.

02-03-2022 04:16 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

AUD/USD - Breaking the downtrend?

Can it maintain momentum? The Aussie dollar has been on a decent run in recent weeks against the greenback but it's suddenly struggling around an important area of resistance. The pair has been in a downward trend for a little over a year and the top of the descending channel falls between the 50 and 61.8 fib levels and around 0.73, near the same level it failed at last week. A move above here would look like quite a bullish breakout but there may still be one more big obstacle in the way.

01-03-2022 17:39 GMT by Craig Erlam

Commodities and Cryptos Shine as risk aversion hits Wall Street: Oil surges, Gold and Bitcoin rally

Oil Energy traders shrugged off the EIA announcement that 60-million barrels of crude will be released. Crude prices can’t stop going higher as a very tight oil market will likely see further risk to supplies as the War in Ukraine unfolds. Expectations for a revival of the Iran nuclear deal have come down a bit as talks still have a few key issues. Brent crude could surge to the $120 level if the oil market starts to think it is likely that sanctions will be placed on Russian energy. Normal

01-03-2022 15:05 GMT by Edward Moya

US Close- Surging oil prices drive growth concerns and sink stocks, ISM impresses, Yields drop, Yen Stronger

US stocks tumbled as investors struggle to go long risk as the Russia-Ukraine crisis intensifies and as surging oil prices threaten economic growth prospects. Wall Street is hitting the ‘sell button’ on everything except for energy stocks. Traders are trying to reduce their exposure to anything that has exposure to Russia and some are getting concerned that a prolonged economic slowdown is here.

01-03-2022 15:04 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil and gold climb on Ukraine conflict

Oil soars as sanctions bite and the conflict intensifies Oil prices are surging once more as the conflict in Ukraine intensifies, the West continues to impose severe sanctions and companies turn their backs on what is becoming an increasingly isolated Russia. We're starting to see what impact these sanctions could have on Russian oil exports and the challenges they pose and that's driving the price higher. The oil rally has seriously accelerated today, breezing past USD 100 and gathering momen

01-03-2022 13:27 GMT by Craig Erlam

Another risk-averse session

Equity markets came under heavy pressure into the close in Europe on Tuesday, as the Ukraine invasion continued and the price of oil soared. The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces is continuing to intensify despite talks yesterday between delegations from both sides on the border with Belarus. Further talks are expected to take place this week but that's not slowing the assault on Kyiv, to the horror of most countries around the world. The sanctions that have been announced so far will be d

01-03-2022 13:22 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar steady, GDP outperforms

Canada's GDP rises 6.7% Canada's GDP in Q4 was stronger than expected, at 6.7% QoQ, ahead of the estimate of 6.5% and higher than the 5.5% gain in Q3. The Canadian dollar's reaction was muted, as investors are looking ahead to the Bank of Canada's policy meeting on Wednesday. The red-hot GDP reading cements a rate hike from the BoC. The Bank of Canada has held interest rates at 0.25% since March 2021, but policy makers are poised to raise rates by 25 basis points, to 0.50%.

01-03-2022 11:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie steady as RBA holds pat

As expected, the RBA maintained its cash rate at a record low 0.10% earlier on Tuesday. In the rate statement, Governor Philip Lowe said that the global economy continued to improve, but noted that the war in Ukraine was "a major new source of uncertainty". Lowe warned that inflation would continue to rise and that the RBA was projecting inflation to hit 3.25% in the coming quarters. This is significant because it indicates that the central bank expects inflation to rise above the bank's 2-3%

01-03-2022 06:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro weakens on Ukraine fighting

The euro has lost ground on Tuesday and fallen below the 1.12 level. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1173, down 0.40% on the day. The fighting has intensified in Ukraine, with a Russian armored column stretching for miles slowly winding its way towards the capital Kyiv.

01-03-2022 06:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil and gold drifting

Oil prices give back Monday gains Interestingly, despite the extreme intra-day volatility in oil markets, on a closing basis, Brent crude has hardly moved over the past five sessions, closing between USD 97.00 and 98.00 a barrel. Oil spiking early in the day on Ukraine-related developments but failing to maintain momentum and giving back those gains in New York.

01-03-2022 04:48 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

US dollar clings to gains

US dollar stays firm The US dollar finished higher overnight, but only marginally so as the peak-Ukraine rally in equities caused the greenback to give back much of its intraday gains. The dollar index finished 0.21% higher at 96.75, before climbing another 0.12% to 96.86 in Asia today. Given the bargain hunter mentality sweeping the equity markets, it is interesting that the US dollar continues to trade firm, even more so given the move lower by US yields across the curve overnight.

01-03-2022 04:27 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Markets look to price peak-Ukraine

The New York session once again saw a sharp reversal of fortunes, reversing the post-weekend Russia sanctions sell-off. Oil, the US dollar, and gold fell, while equities stage an uneven comeback.

01-03-2022 04:18 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asian equities rally once again

Asian equities mostly held their own yesterday in the face of the weekend Russia sanction news, although European ones, as expected, were stretchered off injured. A Ukraine-Russia meeting was as good a reason as having a clutching-at-straws rally.

01-03-2022 04:11 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Crude rallies, Gold hovers around USD 1900

Oil surges as West tightens sanctions Crude prices surged after the West delivered a stronger round of sanctions that raised the risk that Russian energy supplies could be next to get targeted. Energy traders are awaiting the US and allies to tap their strategic reserves, which could unleash 70 million barrels of oil. The oil market will remain very volatile as the risk of losing access to Russian energy supplies grows. The uncertainty over how the Ukraine war will unfold has too many risks

28-02-2022 15:40 GMT by Edward Moya

Stock pare losses, bitcoin breakout

US stocks clawed back losses as investors prepared for a massive economic downfall for Russia now that the Western nations are intensifying sanctions. Wall Street finished in the red as Russia’s financial meltdown led to some contagion worries and as surging commodity prices will continue to fuel inflationary pressures that will lead to growth concerns later this year.

28-02-2022 15:35 GMT by Edward Moya

Yen posts gains despite weak data

Japanese production, retail sales fall Japan's factory output declined for a second consecutive month as supply disruptions continue to take a toll on manufacturing. Industrial production for January fell 1.3% m/m, worse than the consensus of -0.7%.

28-02-2022 12:06 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Powerful sanctions hit risk appetite

We're seeing widespread risk aversion once more on Monday after new severe sanctions were levied against Russia over the weekend. The response to previous sanctions was underwhelming, to say the least, but the latest batch undoubtedly has the teeth that the others lacked. That's been most clearly evident in the FX markets, where the rouble plunged more than 30% to record lows and that could have been much worse but for swift action by the central bank. An emergency rate hike - raising the key

28-02-2022 10:43 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil closes in on USD 100, gold rises

Oil eyeing USD 100 again as the US considers another SPR release and a nuclear deal Oil prices are naturally rallying strongly at the start of the week. Brent and WTI are both closing in on USD 100 once again and only a significant de-escalation looks likely to derail that.

28-02-2022 10:40 GMT by Craig Erlam

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