All Articles

Or is it due a correction? It's been a very volatile start to 2022 and risk aversion has certainly picked up in recent weeks following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The shift to safe havens has benefited the usual currencies like the dollar, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen, with the latter making significant gains against the euro. The pair has fallen more than 4% over the last few weeks and despite rebounding a little on Wednesday, looks very vulnerable to a break lower. And this comes a

02-03-2022 19:06 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar jumps on BOC hike

The Canadian dollar has posted strong gains on Wednesday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.26695 in the North American session, down 0.59% on the day. BoC raises rates The Bank of Canada went ahead and raised rates earlier today by 0.25%, to 0.50%.

02-03-2022 12:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil powers higher, gold has support

OPEC+ displays little appetite for lower prices Oil prices are surging once again today and have topped USD 110 as reports of disruptions to Russian exports as a result of the sanctions emerge. This is something that was already being priced into the markets prior to and after the invasion and the severity of the sanctions have justified those moves.

02-03-2022 12:29 GMT by Craig Erlam

Sell-off on hold amid more talks

The sell-off is on hold on Wednesday as investors regroup following another big move lower a day earlier. European stocks are paring gains and the US has kicked things off in a similar fashion with energy naturally leading the way. I'm not sure broader market sentiment has improved in any way since yesterday given the intensification of the invasion of Ukraine and soaring oil prices but equity markets are seeing some reprieve. There is mild hope that talks between the Ukrainian and Russian del

02-03-2022 12:26 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil higher, gold volatile

Oil jumps on disruption fears Crude prices have slingshot higher as Russia’s turmoil will worsen and likely lead to severe supply disruptions for oil markets. The oil market is very vulnerable to a major shortage of supplies now that OPEC+ has ratified a humble supply hike. With oil prices likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future, the only thing that will send prices down is if demand destruction becomes noticeable. For every USD 10 increase in oil, that will take off 20 basis po

02-03-2022 10:45 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks rebound ahead of Powell testimony, ADP impresses, Powell sets up March liftoff, bitcoin nears potential top

US stocks are rallying on hopes that the hard-hitting sanctions could be working on Russia and on expectations that Fed Chair Powell will signal the central bank will be in wait-and-see mode with regards to aggressively tackling inflation until they assess the war in Ukraine impact. Risk appetite will struggle to fully return until a true end in the war in Ukraine is in sight. Wall Street wants to take a break from the defensive playbook and hold off overloading on utilities, healthcare and con

02-03-2022 10:40 GMT by Edward Moya

Aussie rises on strong GDP

The Australian dollar is in positive territory, as investors reacted favourably to today's GDP report. AUD/USD is trading at 0.7275, up 0.37% on the day. Australia GDP climbs 3.4% Australia's economy rebounded in the fourth quarter, with a gain of 3.4% QoQ, just shy of the consensus of 3.5%. This is an impressive turnaround from Q3, which came in at -1.9%.

02-03-2022 10:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 300)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the day's market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss another day of turbulence in financial markets as Russian sanctions begin to bite and the invasion of Ukraine intensifies.

02-03-2022 06:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

Slumping euro drops below 1.11

The euro has fallen for three straight days and continues to lose ground on Wednesday. EUR/USD has dropped below the 1.11 line for the first time since May 2020, at the height of the first wave of Covid-19.

02-03-2022 06:12 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil rockets, gold shows slight gains

Oil prices explode higher on Russian supply shock Oil prices exploded higher in New York overnight, and have continued higher in Asia today as well, with Brent crude topping USD 110.00. My inbox is filled with pieces outlining supply disruptions from Russian oil today.

02-03-2022 05:16 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Dollar rises on oil, Ukraine jitters

The US dollar rallies on higher energy and deepening Ukraine crisis Overnight, saw another flight to safety that benefited the US dollar as the dollar index surged 0.67% to 97.39, edging slightly higher to 97.42 in Asia. The flight to safety was more uneven this time - EUR/USD and GBP/USD sank, AUD, NZD and Asian EM currencies held their own, although the reasons for that are not immediately obvious to me. EUR/USD sank 0.86% to 1.1120, where it remains this morning.

02-03-2022 05:04 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asian equities follow US markets south

Asian markets fall as oil prices surge Surging oil prices overnight sparked global growth fears as the Ukraine-Russia situation intensified and oil supply chains were thrown into chaos over sanctions. That reversed the peak-Ukraine rally of the day before and sent US markets tumbling.

02-03-2022 04:30 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

The more things change…..

The more things change, the more things stay the same. That harsh reality was dished out in spades to markets trying to price in “Peak Ukraine” by buying the dip yesterday.

02-03-2022 04:16 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

AUD/USD - Breaking the downtrend?

Can it maintain momentum? The Aussie dollar has been on a decent run in recent weeks against the greenback but it's suddenly struggling around an important area of resistance. The pair has been in a downward trend for a little over a year and the top of the descending channel falls between the 50 and 61.8 fib levels and around 0.73, near the same level it failed at last week. A move above here would look like quite a bullish breakout but there may still be one more big obstacle in the way.

01-03-2022 17:39 GMT by Craig Erlam

Commodities and Cryptos Shine as risk aversion hits Wall Street: Oil surges, Gold and Bitcoin rally

Oil Energy traders shrugged off the EIA announcement that 60-million barrels of crude will be released. Crude prices can’t stop going higher as a very tight oil market will likely see further risk to supplies as the War in Ukraine unfolds. Expectations for a revival of the Iran nuclear deal have come down a bit as talks still have a few key issues. Brent crude could surge to the $120 level if the oil market starts to think it is likely that sanctions will be placed on Russian energy. Normal

01-03-2022 15:05 GMT by Edward Moya

US Close- Surging oil prices drive growth concerns and sink stocks, ISM impresses, Yields drop, Yen Stronger

US stocks tumbled as investors struggle to go long risk as the Russia-Ukraine crisis intensifies and as surging oil prices threaten economic growth prospects. Wall Street is hitting the ‘sell button’ on everything except for energy stocks. Traders are trying to reduce their exposure to anything that has exposure to Russia and some are getting concerned that a prolonged economic slowdown is here.

01-03-2022 15:04 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil and gold climb on Ukraine conflict

Oil soars as sanctions bite and the conflict intensifies Oil prices are surging once more as the conflict in Ukraine intensifies, the West continues to impose severe sanctions and companies turn their backs on what is becoming an increasingly isolated Russia. We're starting to see what impact these sanctions could have on Russian oil exports and the challenges they pose and that's driving the price higher. The oil rally has seriously accelerated today, breezing past USD 100 and gathering momen

01-03-2022 13:27 GMT by Craig Erlam

Another risk-averse session

Equity markets came under heavy pressure into the close in Europe on Tuesday, as the Ukraine invasion continued and the price of oil soared. The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces is continuing to intensify despite talks yesterday between delegations from both sides on the border with Belarus. Further talks are expected to take place this week but that's not slowing the assault on Kyiv, to the horror of most countries around the world. The sanctions that have been announced so far will be d

01-03-2022 13:22 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar steady, GDP outperforms

Canada's GDP rises 6.7% Canada's GDP in Q4 was stronger than expected, at 6.7% QoQ, ahead of the estimate of 6.5% and higher than the 5.5% gain in Q3. The Canadian dollar's reaction was muted, as investors are looking ahead to the Bank of Canada's policy meeting on Wednesday. The red-hot GDP reading cements a rate hike from the BoC. The Bank of Canada has held interest rates at 0.25% since March 2021, but policy makers are poised to raise rates by 25 basis points, to 0.50%.

01-03-2022 11:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie steady as RBA holds pat

As expected, the RBA maintained its cash rate at a record low 0.10% earlier on Tuesday. In the rate statement, Governor Philip Lowe said that the global economy continued to improve, but noted that the war in Ukraine was "a major new source of uncertainty". Lowe warned that inflation would continue to rise and that the RBA was projecting inflation to hit 3.25% in the coming quarters. This is significant because it indicates that the central bank expects inflation to rise above the bank's 2-3%

01-03-2022 06:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

All news & analysis