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Week Ahead - Into the festive season
US Wall Street will have a busy week of economic data releases and a handful of important earnings.  Investors will pay close attention to Nike’s results after the bell on Tuesday. Nike could provide insight into how strong the Chinese consumer is and provide one of the latest updates for holiday spending.  Other key earnings include General Mills, Carmax, Micron, and FedEx.  Housing economic indicators will be plentiful this week, with weakness expected across building permits, housing starts
16-12-2022 10:22 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Playing the Grinch
Stock markets are going into the festive period in a downbeat mood, as central banks this week reaffirmed their commitment to raising rates. The prospect of a Santa rally is fading as we near the end of 2022, very much in keeping with how the rest of the year has unfolded. Going into December, there was growing optimism that policymakers could be a source of optimism going into the new year but instead, they've taken on the role of grinch, bringing a swift end to the celebrations. Considering th
16-12-2022 07:34 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil under pressure, Fed weighs on gold
Can WTI break $70? Oil prices are slipping once more in volatile trade. There are so many driving forces in the oil market at the moment and a more sombre economic outlook on the back of the hawkish central bank message this week appears to be the dominant one going into the weekend. The interesting thing for me remains how prices respond to the December lows, should they be tested again, with the level in WTI also representing the point at which the White House has indicated it will start refil
16-12-2022 07:31 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Euro steady as PMIs edge higher
German, eurozone PMIs show improvement EUR/USD is showing limited movement on Friday, with a muted response to today's German and eurozone PMIs for December. German manufacturing improved to 47.4, up from 46.1 and above the consensus of 46.1.
16-12-2022 07:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Swiss franc reverses slide after SNB hike
SNB raises rates by 50 bp, Swiss franc rises Major central banks were in the spotlight this week, as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised rates by 50 basis points at their final meeting of the year. These moves overshadowed a 50 bp rate increase by the Swiss National Bank, where rate moves are unusual - this week's rate increase, which brought the benchmark rate to 1.0%, was only the third hike this year.
16-12-2022 05:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Fed sends yen sharply lower
The Japanese yen is in positive territory, paring some of the sharp losses from Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 137.12, down 0.48%. Dollar rises as Fed hints at more rate hikes The Japanese yen has shown some strength recently, but it was the dollar's day on Thursday, with broad gains against the majors.
16-12-2022 03:35 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Market Insights Podcast (Episode 411)
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the Fed, ECB and BoE interest rate decisions as well as the latest moves in oil.
16-12-2022 02:50 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil slumps, gold lower on strong dollar
Oil Crude prices edged lower as a section of the Keystone pipeline restarted and as global recession risks increased after a wave of central banks delivered another strong round of tightening. Oil’s recent rally is running out of steam as risk aversion runs wild. ​ The dollar might be poised to rally here and that should keep some pressure on oil prices. Gold Gold is weakening as markets worry that global central bank tightening will drive recessionary fears and keep the dollar supported here. ​
15-12-2022 12:44 GMT by Edward Moya
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Tightening Thursday (ECB & friends), US data/surveys, labor market refuses to break, oil slumps, gold lower on strong dollar, bitcoin follows broader market
US stocks didn’t stand a chance today after digesting a hawkish FOMC decision and a round of data/surveys that support the argument that the economy is recession bound. The labor market might not be breaking but it is becoming clear the consumer is weakening and manufacturing activity is in a recession. ​ US retail sales posted the largest drop in nearly a year.
15-12-2022 12:41 GMT by Edward Moya
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Aussie slides on Fed hawkishness
The Australian dollar is sharply lower on Thursday. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6755, down 1.58%. Australian employment shines Australia's robust labour market continues to impress, with a stellar performance in November.
15-12-2022 12:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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More shocks coming?
Equity markets are back in the red on Thursday as investors reel from the nasty shock delivered by the Fed and look ahead to the plethora of central bank rate decisions on the agenda today. Safe to say, investors simply didn't see that coming. Two months of better-than-expected inflation data were enough to convince them that the Fed would not only ease off the brake but signal it would do so more in the coming months. Whether through complacency or a desperate desire to see value in equity mark
15-12-2022 05:33 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil edges lower, Fed sends gold lower
Oil edges lower Oil prices are a little lower on Thursday after recording three consecutive days of gains. A stronger post-Fed dollar, fears of slower growth, or a surprisingly large inventory build from EIA may be contributing to today's declines but in reality, we're probably just seeing a little profit-taking following a decent rebound. The outlook remains highly uncertain given the risks to Chinese demand as it exits zero Covid, the war in Ukraine and the impact of the G7 price cap, and OPEC
15-12-2022 05:21 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Will the Fed deliver?
Equity markets are paring gains ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday, perhaps a little caution ahead of the final decision of the year. Today's announcement, forecasts, and commentary will set the scene for next year, in particular the first quarter which is still fraught with uncertainty over just how far the central bank will go. Policymakers have been clear this year that regaining control of inflation comes first, no matter the economic consequences. Of course, the two are
14-12-2022 08:34 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil showing volatility, gold eyes Fed
Huge uncertainty for oil There remains immense uncertainty over the outlook for crude demand and supply which is leading to plenty of volatility in oil markets. The price has rebounded in recent days after WTI fell close to $70, the level at which the White House has previously indicated it will start refilling the SPR following a year of repeatedly drawing it down. With China finally navigating away from zero-Covid, which alone brings huge uncertainty for next year, the global economy slowing,
14-12-2022 08:27 GMT by Craig Erlam
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NZD/USD awaits Fed, GDP
Federal Reserve expected to hike by 50 bp All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which winds up its policy meeting later today. Policy makers are expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at this final meeting of 2022, with an outside chance of a more aggressive 75 basis point hike.
14-12-2022 07:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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