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Nasdaq 100 Technical: Bulls are getting exhausted

Bearish reversal elements have been sighted for Nasdaq 100 The +30% up move from the 28 December low has reached the upper boundary of the “Ascending Wedge”, a bearish reversal chart pattern. The key short-term resistance to watch will be at 13,835. This is a follow-up on a prior report, “Nasdaq 100 bulls may be too optimistic on US CPI” that has been published earlier on 11 May (click here for a recap). The Nasdaq 100 has been the strongest performing major US stock index since October 2022 f

24-05-2023 06:12 GMT by Kelvin Wong

NZD/USD slides after RBNZ hike of 0.25%

RBNZ hikes by 0.25%, signals end of tightening cycle New Zealand retail sales decline NZD/USD slides by 1.8% The New Zealand dollar is taking a bath on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6136, down a massive 1.78% on the day.

24-05-2023 05:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

The RBNZ is seemingly done but UK inflation data shows the BoE has a lot to do

It's been a tough start to the trading day, with UK inflation data sending worrying signals while the RBNZ seemed to declare job done in its inflation battle. Bitterly disappointing inflation report from the UK The headline UK inflation number may look like a massive step in the right direction in April but the reality is that there's far more to be concerned about in the report than happy. On the one hand, inflation has slipped significantly from 10.1% to 8.7%.

24-05-2023 04:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil prices rise after Saudi warning, gold steady ahead of FOMC minutes

Oil continues higher as short-sellers warned to "watch out" Oil prices are trading higher again on Wednesday, buoyed by the latest short-seller warning from Saudi Arabia. The prospect of another "ouching" moment is seemingly too much to bear although if past experience is anything to go by, traders may be tempted to call his bluff. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told short-sellers to watch out during his most recent comments on the market which come a little before the next OP

24-05-2023 04:41 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil sellers fret over Saudi threat, API Inventory decline 6.799 million barrels

API inventory data posts 6.799 million barrel drop vs 0.525 million expected build, Cushing rises 1.71 million Gold steadies as dollar rally extends Bitcoin streak of monthly gains is in jeopardy Oil On Wall Street, we have the mantra of ‘Don’t fight the Fed’, but that is currently being tested as investors continue to price in rate cuts for later this year. Energy traders have quickly learned that when it comes to oil prices, you ‘Don’t fight the Saudis’ as they will do whatever it takes to d

23-05-2023 16:36 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks plunge as debt deadline nears

Stock breadth deteriorates as equal versus cap-weighted S&P ratio falls to lowest levels since early 2022 Treasury cash balance rises to $68.3 billion on May 22nd Risk appetite struggles as little progress made over raising debt ceiling US stocks are declining as debt ceiling talks have hit a major roadblock and the latest round of economic data suggests the disinflation process is going to start to struggle. What is also weighing on sentiment is the China-US confrontation which could put add

23-05-2023 16:21 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD drifting lower ahead of UK inflation

UK inflation expected to fall sharply on Wednesday IMF revises upwards UK growth forecast GBP/USD is trading quietly at 1.2423, down 0.11% on the day. UK inflation expected to ease UK inflation has been a thorn in the side of the Bank of England for months and is still above 10%. The UK releases the April inflation report on Wednesday and relief may finally have arrived.

23-05-2023 12:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Traders hesitant as debt ceiling talks continue, IMF cautiously optimistic, more Saudi warnings

Equity markets are broadly lower on Tuesday as traders monitor debt ceiling talks in Washington, take note of new IMF forecasts, and hear fresh warnings from the Saudi Energy Minister. Once again, it's been a relatively lively day as far as headlines are concerned and yet there's still a feeling of hesitance in the markets. We're still waiting to see a resolution on the debt ceiling, which will undoubtedly come, after more promising talks between President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy. At th

23-05-2023 10:55 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil edges higher, gold remains supported at $1960

Oil edges higher after fresh warnings from Saudi Energy Minister Oil prices have nudged higher today following another warning from Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman that short-sellers will be "ouching" as they did in April. "Watch out" was the message ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting early next month in what may be a sign that the group is considering cutting output once more amid a more bleak global economic outlook. Of course, actions speak louder than words and traders haven't

23-05-2023 10:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD slips ahead of RBNZ decision

New Zealand retail sales expected to decline RBNZ projected to deliver 25-bp hike The New Zealand dollar is lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6259, down 0.45% on the day. Debt ceiling impasse boosts US yields The US dollar is higher against most of the majors today, as the markets remain nervous about the US debt ceiling standoff.

23-05-2023 10:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY hits 6-mth high as BoJ Core CPI accelerates

BoJ Core CPI rises to 3.0% USD/JPY hits 6-mth high USD/JPY climbed as high as 138.87 earlier on Tuesday, its highest level since May 28th. The yen has edged lower and is trading at 138.43 in the European session, down 0.17%. BoJ Core CPI surprises to the upside Japan released BoJ Core CPI earlier in the day.

23-05-2023 06:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold has not lost its glitter (Part 2)

Gold (XAU/USD) has dropped by -5.6% from its recent 52-week high of US$2,067. Recent price weakness of gold (XAU/USD) is due to the unwinding of potential long hedges and large speculators’ positions ahead of a potentially positive outcome of the US debt ceiling extension negotiations. Longer-term factors such as global stagflation risk and technical analysis are still in favour of a potential multi-month bullish scenario for gold. The bullish momentum of the shiny metal, gold (XAU/USD) seems

23-05-2023 02:42 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil remains choppy, gold may enter deeper correction

Oil generating some bullish momentum but remains lower Oil prices are marginally higher at the start of the week but broadly speaking we're still seeing choppy trade below the December to March range. Bank failures was the catalyst for the price breaking below here with an intervention from OPEC+ temporarily helping it to recover but more may be needed. Despite the negative developments for the global economy and, by extension, oil prices, we are seeing signs of more promising momentum, and that

22-05-2023 12:02 GMT by Craig Erlam

A big week to come despite a sluggish start to the week

It hasn't been the most thrilling start to the week but that is highly unlikely to continue, with debt ceiling talks, inflation releases, PMIs and Fed minutes all to come. Today we'll have to settle for comments from some Fed policymakers and while James Bullard's claim that we should see two more hikes this year may have done more than the morning coffee to wake some people up this Monday morning in the US, the reality is we can take those comments with a relative pinch of salt at this point. W

22-05-2023 11:58 GMT by Craig Erlam

Commodities and Cryptos stuck in wait-and-see mode

OPEC must be frustrated oil prices have yet to stabilize Gold struggles after hawkish Fed speak Bitcoin vulnerable but still holding lower boundaries of key range Oil Crude prices are in no man’s land as energy traders look to see what happens with both debt ceiling talks and with US and China tensions. Chevron’s acquisition of driller PDC Energy will help their operations in the US production basins, but that doesn't mean we will see an immediate impact with US output over the short-term.

22-05-2023 11:53 GMT by Edward Moya

NZD/USD unchanged ahead of New Zealand retail sales

New Zealand retail sales expected to decline RBNZ expected to raise rates by 25 bp The New Zealand dollar is coming off a strong week, with gains of 1.36%. In Monday's North American session, NZD is unchanged, trading at 0.6274. New Zealand retail sales expected to decline New Zealand releases retail sales on Tuesday.

22-05-2023 11:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Deals Galore, a hawkish Bullard, and waiting on DC

Fed rate hike odds turn positive for the July FOMC meeting. June at 29.%, July at 14.3% Fed's Daly noted that tighter credit may be worth a couple rate hikes Biden and McCarthy to meet at 530pm est Wall Street is struggling for direction as investors watch a lot of dealmaking, await debt ceiling negotiation updates, and rethink the Fed’s interest rate path.

22-05-2023 11:46 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro drops to 7-week low, will PMIs surprise?

Eurozone consumer confidence unchanged at -17 Eurozone services and manufacturing PMIs to be released on Tuesday The euro is trading quietly at the start of the week, just above the 1.08 line. EUR/USD stabilized on Friday, after a 3-day skid which saw the euro drop as low as 1.0760, its lowest level since March 28th. Today features a very light data calendar, with only one release in Europe and none out of the US.

22-05-2023 10:56 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Podcast - Market open, UK data week, Japanese inflation, Fed minutes, US inflation

OANDA Senior Market Analysts Craig Erlam and Kelvin Wong join Jonny Hart to discuss how the week has started in the markets and what the rest of it has in store.

22-05-2023 08:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

Japanese yen drifting ahead of BOJ Core CPI

BoJ Core CPI expected to ease USD/JPY steadies after extended slide In Monday's European session, USD/JPY is steady, trading at 137.90. The yen gained 0.53% on Friday, after a nasty slide last week in which it fell 440 points and hit a six-month low. BoJ Core CPI expected to inch lower Inflation has become a hot topic for Japanese policy makers, which marks a sea-change after years of deflation.

22-05-2023 06:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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