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AUD/JPY Technical: Bulls got stalled again at 200-day MA
The medium-term up move of AUD/JPY from the 24 March 2023 swing low of 86.06 got stalled again at the key 200-day moving average. Short-term downside movement seems to have resurfaced as indicated by the 4-hour RSI. Key resistance to watch will be at 92.70. Fig 1: AUD/JPY trend as of 26 May 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The recent 460 pips rally of the AUD/JPY from its 26 April 2023 minor swing low of 87.87 has stalled at the key 200-day moving average again (now acting
29-05-2023 06:04 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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US stocks at risk of liquidity drain post US debt ceiling deal
US Treasury needs to issue an approximate total amount of US$1.1 trillion in T-bills in H2 2023 to replenish its operating cash balance. Absorption of the US$1.1 trillion of T-bills issuance may trigger a significant liquidity squeeze. Liquidity conditions in the US have started to tighten reinforced by an increase in implied volatility of US Treasury bonds and a less dovish Fed. Persistent K-shaped performance led by mega-cap technology stocks in US stock indices increase the risk of a downside
29-05-2023 02:53 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Week Ahead - Turkey decides, crucial US jobs report, x-date fast approaching
US Street is starting to get nervous as we near the X-date.  A US default seemed unimaginable a couple of weeks ago and despite a lot of positive comments from both sides, negotiations will go down to the wire and that means the risk that it falls apart is growing.  Treasury Secretary Yellen will soon provide an update on the X-date and that could show talks might have an extra week from the current June 1st deadline to get a deal done.
26-05-2023 12:45 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil volatile after a week of mixed messages, US inflation bad news for gold
Oil markets volatile ahead of OPEC+ meeting next weekend Oil prices are recovering slightly after a volatile week amid conflicting commentary from key members of the OPEC+ alliance. From a "watch out" warning from the Saudi Energy Minister to a suggestion that the group will not cut output next weekend, traders have been left a little confused as to what we can expect. It may be that Saudi Arabia wants to keep traders on their toes but to make these comments and not follow through could be perce
26-05-2023 12:41 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Another setback for central banks as inflation remains stubborn and spending strong
The Fed may not be done after all Investors may have underestimated the pace of disinflation this year if economic data this week is anything to go by, with US figures today further enforcing the view that price pressures are stubborn and spending healthy. The headline PCE price index brought the biggest surprise, jumping 0.4% on the month against expectations of zero increase, but the core reading also brought an upside surprise, as did spending which jumped 0.8%, double the consensus view. Sud
26-05-2023 12:39 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil higher on debt deal optimism and resilient US economy, gold struggles, Crypto steadies
Energy traders carefully monitoring for any Russian-Saudi tensions Hawkish data and debt deal optimism weigh on gold Cryptos benefitting from today's broader market rally Oil Crude prices are rising after another round of impressive economic data exemplifies how resilient the US economy remains. Debt deal negotiations appear to also be heading in the right direction, but talks could easily fall apart as the far wings of both parties will need to make concessions. Energy traders might refrain fr
26-05-2023 12:24 GMT by Edward Moya
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Debt-Limit talks advance and there goes the cooling inflation narrative
Dollar approaches 2-month high; 2-year yield rises 8.1 bps to 4.616%, the 11th straight day of gains, longest streak since September Fed's Mester noted that the previous rate hikes will effect the econonmy Inflation is looking stickier than ever as the PCE supercore surges US stocks are rallying as Washington DC nears a debt deal ahead of the long weekend. ​ The risks that a debt deal could fall apart at the 11th hour remains, which makes Treasury Secretary Yellen’s update over the X-date criti
26-05-2023 12:14 GMT by Edward Moya
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Novak and USD crush oil prices, Gold and Bitcoin diverge
Dollar rally sends gold to lowest levels since March and the yen to the weakest levels since November Russian/Saudi in focus as Novak clarifies earlier comments Bitcoin outperforming gold as it continues to hold onto critical support Oil Crude prices are weakening as king dollar returns and after Russia slashes any Saudi hope of delivering another production cut at the June 4th meeting.  Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, "I don't think that there will be any new steps, becaus
25-05-2023 15:42 GMT by Edward Moya
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Investors forced to reconsider interest rate forecasts amid disappointing data
UK interest rate expectations rise after inflation data We're seeing very mixed trade on Thursday, with the Nasdaq making strong gains of more than 1.5%, the Dow and S&P treading water, and Europe mostly in the red. Once more there's a heavy focus on central banks and whether investors have been too optimistic about when and where the peak in interest rates will come, and by extension how soon after they'll fall. UK inflation data on Wednesday was very disappointing, despite finally falling bac
25-05-2023 11:32 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil slides over OPEC, gold falls after FOMC minutes
Russia cools talk over OPEC+ output cut Oil prices are sliding again on Thursday after the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, appeared to cool expectations of an imminent output cut from OPEC+ ahead of the meeting in a little over a week. Suspicions of a second consecutive cut came as prices slipped, and remained, below $80 a barrel - the point at which the group announced a surprise cut previously - and Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, warned short speculators
25-05-2023 10:42 GMT by Craig Erlam
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GBP/USD edges lower, markets eye UK retail sales
UK retail sales expected to fall sharply US debt ceiling impasse continues FOMC minutes show Fed divided over rate policy GBP/USD continues its downswing. The pound is trading at 1.2340, down 0.20% and is at a one-month low against the US dollar. The UK releases retail sales for April on Friday.
25-05-2023 09:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY drifting ahead of Tokyo Core CPI
USD/JPY edges closer to 140 Markets await Japanese inflation US Treasury yields jump as debt crisis continues FOMC minutes point to uncertainty over rate path USD/JPY is drifting higher in the European session, trading at 139.61, up 0.11%. Earlier, USD/JPY touched a high of 139.70, its highest level since November and close to the symbolic 140 level.
25-05-2023 08:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Euro dips lower on weak German data
Germany's GDP contracts in Q1 German consumer confidence remains deeply pessimistic FOMC minutes shows uncertainty over rate path EUR/USD is down for a third straight day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0727, down 0.21%. German GDP contracts in Q1 Germany's economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, after a 0.0% in Q4 2020, which was also the estimate.
25-05-2023 05:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Yuan weakness spooks China and Asia ex-Japan stock markets
USD/CNH (offshore yuan) has surged to a 6-month high of 7.08. Since late Oct 2022, the movement of USD/CNH has had a high degree of correlation with China and Asia ex-Japan equities. Positive momentum factor remains intact for USD/CNH which may add further potential headwinds for China and Asia ex-Japan equities. The earlier “China re-opening theme play” gains of +20% to +56% that were seen in the China benchmark stock indices and its proxies (such as CSI 300 & Hang Seng China Enterprises Index
25-05-2023 02:51 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Energy Prices remain strong as most commodities weaken on debt deal and growth concerns
EIA Report: Inventories fall by 12.46 million barrels vs 932K expected build Gold struggles as sticky inflation could support Fed skip Global crypto market cap falls to $1.1 trillion Oil Oil is starting to turn bullish as demand shows signs of improvement also while energy traders heed the Saudi warning given to short-sellers.  The EIA crude oil inventory was mostly bullish as demand improved across crude, distillates and gasoline. Crude has been dragged down as debt ceiling talks are still h
24-05-2023 16:00 GMT by Edward Moya
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Here comes debt ceiling pain and rising risks of a Fed skip
FOMC Minutes: Officials split on whether more rate hikes are needed to fight inflation Republicans are holding the line of significant spending cuts T-bill yields surge to 7% US stocks are declining after Wall Street got hit with a one-two punch of rising debt default risks and on fears that inflation might not allow the Fed to pause their tightening cycle. The FOMC minutes showed that officials are split on continuing with rate hikes and that they will remain data dependent.  Rate cuts are unl
24-05-2023 15:53 GMT by Edward Moya
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