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USD/JPY hits 6-mth high as BoJ Core CPI accelerates

BoJ Core CPI rises to 3.0% USD/JPY hits 6-mth high USD/JPY climbed as high as 138.87 earlier on Tuesday, its highest level since May 28th. The yen has edged lower and is trading at 138.43 in the European session, down 0.17%. BoJ Core CPI surprises to the upside Japan released BoJ Core CPI earlier in the day.

23-05-2023 06:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold has not lost its glitter (Part 2)

Gold (XAU/USD) has dropped by -5.6% from its recent 52-week high of US$2,067. Recent price weakness of gold (XAU/USD) is due to the unwinding of potential long hedges and large speculators’ positions ahead of a potentially positive outcome of the US debt ceiling extension negotiations. Longer-term factors such as global stagflation risk and technical analysis are still in favour of a potential multi-month bullish scenario for gold. The bullish momentum of the shiny metal, gold (XAU/USD) seems

23-05-2023 02:42 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil remains choppy, gold may enter deeper correction

Oil generating some bullish momentum but remains lower Oil prices are marginally higher at the start of the week but broadly speaking we're still seeing choppy trade below the December to March range. Bank failures was the catalyst for the price breaking below here with an intervention from OPEC+ temporarily helping it to recover but more may be needed. Despite the negative developments for the global economy and, by extension, oil prices, we are seeing signs of more promising momentum, and that

22-05-2023 12:02 GMT by Craig Erlam

A big week to come despite a sluggish start to the week

It hasn't been the most thrilling start to the week but that is highly unlikely to continue, with debt ceiling talks, inflation releases, PMIs and Fed minutes all to come. Today we'll have to settle for comments from some Fed policymakers and while James Bullard's claim that we should see two more hikes this year may have done more than the morning coffee to wake some people up this Monday morning in the US, the reality is we can take those comments with a relative pinch of salt at this point. W

22-05-2023 11:58 GMT by Craig Erlam

Commodities and Cryptos stuck in wait-and-see mode

OPEC must be frustrated oil prices have yet to stabilize Gold struggles after hawkish Fed speak Bitcoin vulnerable but still holding lower boundaries of key range Oil Crude prices are in no man’s land as energy traders look to see what happens with both debt ceiling talks and with US and China tensions. Chevron’s acquisition of driller PDC Energy will help their operations in the US production basins, but that doesn't mean we will see an immediate impact with US output over the short-term.

22-05-2023 11:53 GMT by Edward Moya

NZD/USD unchanged ahead of New Zealand retail sales

New Zealand retail sales expected to decline RBNZ expected to raise rates by 25 bp The New Zealand dollar is coming off a strong week, with gains of 1.36%. In Monday's North American session, NZD is unchanged, trading at 0.6274. New Zealand retail sales expected to decline New Zealand releases retail sales on Tuesday.

22-05-2023 11:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Deals Galore, a hawkish Bullard, and waiting on DC

Fed rate hike odds turn positive for the July FOMC meeting. June at 29.%, July at 14.3% Fed's Daly noted that tighter credit may be worth a couple rate hikes Biden and McCarthy to meet at 530pm est Wall Street is struggling for direction as investors watch a lot of dealmaking, await debt ceiling negotiation updates, and rethink the Fed’s interest rate path.

22-05-2023 11:46 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro drops to 7-week low, will PMIs surprise?

Eurozone consumer confidence unchanged at -17 Eurozone services and manufacturing PMIs to be released on Tuesday The euro is trading quietly at the start of the week, just above the 1.08 line. EUR/USD stabilized on Friday, after a 3-day skid which saw the euro drop as low as 1.0760, its lowest level since March 28th. Today features a very light data calendar, with only one release in Europe and none out of the US.

22-05-2023 10:56 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Podcast - Market open, UK data week, Japanese inflation, Fed minutes, US inflation

OANDA Senior Market Analysts Craig Erlam and Kelvin Wong join Jonny Hart to discuss how the week has started in the markets and what the rest of it has in store.

22-05-2023 08:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

Japanese yen drifting ahead of BOJ Core CPI

BoJ Core CPI expected to ease USD/JPY steadies after extended slide In Monday's European session, USD/JPY is steady, trading at 137.90. The yen gained 0.53% on Friday, after a nasty slide last week in which it fell 440 points and hit a six-month low. BoJ Core CPI expected to inch lower Inflation has become a hot topic for Japanese policy makers, which marks a sea-change after years of deflation.

22-05-2023 06:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Technical: A potential short-term downtrend in play

Gold (XAU/USD) has dropped by -5.6% from its recent 52-week high of US$2,067. Factors that caused the recent drop could be the bounce seen in the US dollar and the unwinding of long hedges linked to the US debt ceiling negotiations. 50-day moving average is now acting as a key intermediate resistance at US$1,991. The bullish momentum of the shiny metal, Gold (XAU/USD) seems to have dissipated in recent weeks after it printed a fresh 52-week high of US$2,067 on 4 May 2023 and staged a decline of

22-05-2023 05:49 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - Stocks weaken as Debt-Limit Talks hit a Roadblock and on Fed Pause Hopes

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. They take a close look at debt ceiling negotiations, Fed Chair Powell's speech, Secretary Yellen's comment that more bank mergers may be needed, and gold prices.

19-05-2023 18:48 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold rebounds on Powell Pause hopes and Debt-Limit Roadblock

US oil rig counts fall 11 to 575 Gold starts to get shine back as safe-haven demand returns Bitcoin steadies near lower boundaries of trading range Oil Crude prices were having a great week as the US economic outlook dramatically improved as lawmakers seem likely to reach a deal on the debt ceiling. Debt ceiling optimism quickly disappeared on Friday and that sent oil prices sharply lower. The news wasn’t all negative for crude prices as Fed Chair Powell paved the way for a June hold. China

19-05-2023 13:16 GMT by Edward Moya

Finally some Debt-Limit Drama, Powell paves the way for a pause

Fed discord to grow as inflation shows signs of stickiness 10-year Treasury yield rises 2.1bps to 3.667% Wall Street eyes potential September rate cut US stocks turned negative after key negotiators for Speaker Kevin McCarthy left a closed door debt ceiling meeting with White House representatives noting that they were not being “reasonable.” Finally, we are seeing posturing and some heated debate for this debt deal. A big risk for debt-limit talks were that negotiations were too easy and that

19-05-2023 13:09 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - Debt ceiling drama, Turkish rate decision pre-Presidential run-off

Wall Street will remain focused on debt ceiling drama, a plethora of Fed speak, flash PMIs, and bank stress. It will be a busy week filled with economic releases, with most of the attention falling on the first look at the May PMI readings, a second look at Q1 GDP/Core PCE, New Home Sales, and the FOMC meeting minutes.

19-05-2023 12:29 GMT by Craig Erlam

Cause for optimism amid positive debt ceiling talks and good news on UK consumers

It would appear we're heading into the weekend on a slightly more upbeat note, with stock markets posting decent gains, optimism rising over debt ceiling negotiations, and UK consumers feeling a little less downbeat on their prospects. Still pessimistic but a step in the right direction UK consumers are pessimistic as ever, albeit slightly less so according to the latest survey from GfK. Sentiment improved slightly to -27 this month, the highest since before Russia invaded Ukraine, but still wel

19-05-2023 10:00 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil heads higher, gold under pressure

Are we seeing some bullish momentum in crude prices? Oil prices are rebounding again today alongside a slight uptick in market sentiment more broadly. Perhaps some of the confidence in Washington that a deal on the debt ceiling isn't far away, amid "steady progress", is filtering through to the markets, although default was almost certainly never a realistic possibility in the first place. Crude has gathered a little upward momentum over the last week or so, with prices making higher lows on the

19-05-2023 09:56 GMT by Craig Erlam

British pound rises as consumer confidence improves

UK Consumer Confidence hits 15-month high BoE's Bailey warns of wage-price spiral The British pound has pushed higher on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2449 in North America, up 0.32% on the day. The week is wrapping up on a positive note, as UK GfK Consumer Confidence index improved for a fourth straight month.

19-05-2023 09:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CAD - Will retail sales weigh on the Canadian dollar?

Canadian retail sales expected to decline Fed Chair and two FOMC members will speak later The Canadian dollar is trading quietly ahead of a key retail sales report later today. USD/CAD is trading in Europe at 1.3484, down 0.13%. Markets brace for soft Canadian retail sales The Canadian consumer is holding tightly to their wallet, which is not all that surprising in the current economic climate.

19-05-2023 06:43 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY rally runs out of steam, Japan's inflation rises

Japan Core CPI rises USD/JPY in negative territory The Japanese yen is in positive territory today, in what could be the end of a 6-day rally by the US dollar. During that time, the yen has plunged 440 points and hit a six-month low on Thursday.

19-05-2023 04:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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