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Stocks waver as traders pare back expectations for Fed rate hikes

Disinflation Trends might be back as prices paid plunged 9 points in the ISM manufacturing report ADP Report: Pay growth is slowing substantially Still waiting on layoff announcements to hit jobless claims data US stocks are rising after some dovish Fed speak and as the House was able to advance the debt ceiling bill to the Senate. So far everything with the debt ceiling deal is going as planned after both the House Rules Committee and House of Representatives did their part to get this bill

01-06-2023 11:20 GMT by Edward Moya

Japanese yen drifts higher, US job numbers in focus

US JOLTS Job Openings beats expectations US nonfarm payrolls follows on Friday Fed members divided on rate policy Debt ceiling agreement approved in House, moves to Senate USD/JPY has edged higher on Thursday, trading at 139.66 in the European session. The yen has recovered after falling as low as 140.93 this week, its lowest level since November. It has been a quiet week in Japan on the economic calendar, with no major releases.

01-06-2023 08:35 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD falls to 5-week low as inflation eases

Eurozone inflation falls sharply Debt ceiling deal sails through House of Representatives JOLTS Job Openings beats expectations The euro has edged higher on Thursday, trading at 1.0708, up 0.19%. The currency remains under pressure as the US dollar is flexing some muscles.

01-06-2023 06:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Podcast - Rising Fed rate hike expectations

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. They discuss today's debt ceiling vote, a hot JOLTS report, China's PMI report, and Australia's sticky inflation data. **Note this was recorded before Fed's Jefferson comment about pausing at the next meeting.

31-05-2023 16:09 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks lower as debt deal and more Fed tightening has economy recession bound

US stocks are falling as the expected debt deal will prove to be negative for the economy as limited spending along with more Fed tightening will send the economy to a recession at the end of the year. The US doesn’t look like it will default, but recession worries, possibly stagflation risks, will make life hard for risky assets. Debt Vote The divided House will soon vote on the bill, needing a 218-vote majority for it to advance to the Senate. Voting is expected to start at 330pm est an

31-05-2023 15:57 GMT by Edward Moya

Japanese yen crawls back above 140

Japanese retail sales and industrial production soften A possible snap election in Japan could delay any BoJ move House to vote on debt ceiling deal USD/JPY is almost unchanged on Wednesday, trading at 139.73. The yen has improved since dropping as low as 140.93 this week, its lowest level since November. Japanese numbers were softer than expected.

31-05-2023 09:53 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar edges lower ahead of Canadian GDP

Canada to release GDP US debt ceiling deal off to Congress The Canadian dollar is trading close to a two-month low, as the currency remains under pressure. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3646 in the European session, up 0.34%. Canada's GDP expected to improve in Q1 Canada releases GDP later today, and the markets are projecting a modest 0.4% q/q for the first quarter, after flatlining in Q4 2022.

31-05-2023 06:24 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD slips on soft Chinese PMIs, Aussie inflation jumps

RBA's Lowe says inflation fight not over Australian inflation rises to 6.8% US Treasury yields fall on debt ceiling deal Australian inflation rose in the first quarter, but the Australian dollar is considerably lower today due to soft China PMI reports. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6481, down 0.54%.

31-05-2023 04:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Exhaustion at key resistance

The outperformer Nasdaq 100 seems to have hit a roadblock/resistance at around 14,380. Price actions formed a daily bearish “Gravestone Doji” candlestick right at the upper boundary of the “Ascending Wedge” configuration. 14,380 key graphical resistance confluences with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior major downtrend from 22 November 2021 all-time high to 13 October 2022 low. Fig 1: US Nas 100 daily trend as of 31 May 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Fig 2:

30-05-2023 22:29 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Gold rallies as debt deal progress sends Treasury yields lower

Russian oil shipments weaken but still well above last year's average Gold finds support after tumbling towards Mid-March low Bitcoin hits two-week high but still appears to be firmly anchored Oil Oil is on the ropes as upcoming week will likely contain further confirmations that China’s recovery is struggling, the US labor market is cooling, the Fed will likely deliver more tightening that will eventually cripple the economy later this year, and as everyone waits to see if the debt deal can m

30-05-2023 14:24 GMT by Edward Moya

Seventh-inning stretch for the debt ceiling deal

Consumer Confidence hits 6-month low Nvidia joins the $1 Trillion club Treasury Yields tumble on debt deal optimism; 10-year falls 11.4 bps to 3.685 Wall Street has returned from a long weekend with a bit of optimism that the US will avert a potentially disastrous default. The Nasdaq is leading the way after Nvidia joined the $1 trillion in value club after announcing a couple key partnerships and outlining several AI -related products. The spotlight remains on Washington DC and the House Ru

30-05-2023 14:11 GMT by Edward Moya

Debt ceiling deal a huge relief but focus now switches to the jobs report

It's been another uninspiring session on Tuesday with traders buoyed by the deal reached on the debt ceiling but still concerned about inflation and interest rates ahead of the jobs report on Friday. A massive step forward on the path to avoiding default The debt ceiling distraction is almost behind us, with the House and Senate expected to vote this week on the deal that was reached between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the weekend. That will put an end to fears o

30-05-2023 13:03 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil prices dip with eye on OPEC, gold higher after debt ceiling deal

How much sway does Saudi Arabia still have? Oil prices are slipping on Tuesday as traders weigh up the prospects of another OPEC+ cut this weekend. Russia's Novak last week appeared to play down the prospect of another reduction shortly after traders were warned to "watch out" by the Saudi energy minister, who hinted at another "ouching" for short-sellers. It seems Novak's words have carried more weight in the markets as traders determined that no alignment of thought will mean no deal.

30-05-2023 13:01 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro touches 9 week low, German CPI next

Spain's CPI eases in May German CPI to be released on Wednesday Debt ceiling likely to be approved in Congress EUR/USD has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0737, up 0.26%. Earlier, the euro dropped as low as 1.0672, its lowest level since March 20. Spanish CPI lower than expected Spain, the fourth-largest economy in the eurozone, saw inflation fall to 3.2% in May.

30-05-2023 09:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY punches above 140, Tokyo issues warning

Japanese yen falls below 140 Japan's Ministry of Finance issues warning US debt ceiling heads to Congress USD/JPY is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.17, down 0.19%. The Japanese yen continues to underperform and has plunged 2.8% in May.

30-05-2023 06:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie unchanged ahead of Lowe, CPI

RBA Governor Lowe testifies before a Senate Committee Australia to release CPI US debt ceiling deal likely to be approved by Congress The Australian dollar is drifting lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6538 in Europe, unchanged on the day. RBA Governor Lowe testifies before a Senate Committee later today.

30-05-2023 04:54 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD Technical: Bears may be getting exhausted

The current minor downtrend phase for EUR/USD from its 3 May 2023 high of 1.1092 is showing signs of exhaustion. Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggests a potential terminal support zone of 1.0670/1.0630 for the minor downtrend phase where a possible minor mean reversion rebound may occur next. The key intermediate resistances to watch will be at 1.0725 and 1.0850. Fig 1: EUR/USD trend as of 30 May 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In the medium term (multi-week), the price ac

30-05-2023 01:43 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Swiss franc edges higher ahead of Swiss GDP, business confidence

US markets closed for a holiday US debt ceiling crisis resolved US inflation higher than expected Switzerland releases GDP and the KoF Economic Barometer The Swiss franc has edged higher on Monday and is trading at 0.9036, up o.15%. US markets are closed for Memorial Day and the currency markets have been calm today. Switzerland releases GDP and business confidence on Tuesday.

29-05-2023 11:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD flat in holiday-thinned trading

US markets closed for bank holiday US debt ceiling agreement reached GBP/USD has started the week quietly. The pound is currently trading at 1.2342, almost unchanged.

29-05-2023 09:44 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar stems nasty slide

US markets closed for a bank holiday New Zealand dollar steadies after a 3.6% plunge last week US inflation higher than expected The New Zealand dollar has stabilized on Monday after a disastrous week. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6057, up 0.17%. US reaches debt ceiling deal US lawmakers hammered out a debt ceiling deal over the weekend.

29-05-2023 06:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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