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Oil slides over OPEC, gold falls after FOMC minutes

Russia cools talk over OPEC+ output cut Oil prices are sliding again on Thursday after the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, appeared to cool expectations of an imminent output cut from OPEC+ ahead of the meeting in a little over a week. Suspicions of a second consecutive cut came as prices slipped, and remained, below $80 a barrel - the point at which the group announced a surprise cut previously - and Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, warned short speculators

25-05-2023 10:42 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD edges lower, markets eye UK retail sales

UK retail sales expected to fall sharply US debt ceiling impasse continues FOMC minutes show Fed divided over rate policy GBP/USD continues its downswing. The pound is trading at 1.2340, down 0.20% and is at a one-month low against the US dollar. The UK releases retail sales for April on Friday.

25-05-2023 09:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY drifting ahead of Tokyo Core CPI

USD/JPY edges closer to 140 Markets await Japanese inflation US Treasury yields jump as debt crisis continues FOMC minutes point to uncertainty over rate path USD/JPY is drifting higher in the European session, trading at 139.61, up 0.11%. Earlier, USD/JPY touched a high of 139.70, its highest level since November and close to the symbolic 140 level.

25-05-2023 08:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro dips lower on weak German data

Germany's GDP contracts in Q1 German consumer confidence remains deeply pessimistic FOMC minutes shows uncertainty over rate path EUR/USD is down for a third straight day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0727, down 0.21%. German GDP contracts in Q1 Germany's economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, after a 0.0% in Q4 2020, which was also the estimate.

25-05-2023 05:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yuan weakness spooks China and Asia ex-Japan stock markets

USD/CNH (offshore yuan) has surged to a 6-month high of 7.08. Since late Oct 2022, the movement of USD/CNH has had a high degree of correlation with China and Asia ex-Japan equities. Positive momentum factor remains intact for USD/CNH which may add further potential headwinds for China and Asia ex-Japan equities. The earlier “China re-opening theme play” gains of +20% to +56% that were seen in the China benchmark stock indices and its proxies (such as CSI 300 & Hang Seng China Enterprises Index

25-05-2023 02:51 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - Debt deal angst, RBNZ all done with tightening, hot UK inflation, improving oil fundamentals

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. They give the latest update with debt ceiling talks, discuss the end of RBNZ tightening, a hot UK CPI report, and why oil prices are rising.

24-05-2023 16:20 GMT by Edward Moya

Energy Prices remain strong as most commodities weaken on debt deal and growth concerns

EIA Report: Inventories fall by 12.46 million barrels vs 932K expected build Gold struggles as sticky inflation could support Fed skip Global crypto market cap falls to $1.1 trillion Oil Oil is starting to turn bullish as demand shows signs of improvement also while energy traders heed the Saudi warning given to short-sellers. The EIA crude oil inventory was mostly bullish as demand improved across crude, distillates and gasoline. Crude has been dragged down as debt ceiling talks are still h

24-05-2023 16:00 GMT by Edward Moya

Here comes debt ceiling pain and rising risks of a Fed skip

FOMC Minutes: Officials split on whether more rate hikes are needed to fight inflation Republicans are holding the line of significant spending cuts T-bill yields surge to 7% US stocks are declining after Wall Street got hit with a one-two punch of rising debt default risks and on fears that inflation might not allow the Fed to pause their tightening cycle. The FOMC minutes showed that officials are split on continuing with rate hikes and that they will remain data dependent. Rate cuts are unl

24-05-2023 15:53 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro steady despite weak business confidence data

Germany's Ifo Business Climate falls German GDP expected to stall in Q4 EUR/USD is drifting higher on Wednesday and is trading at 1.0781, up 0.11%. German Business Confidence dips Germany's Ifo Business Climate for May fell to 91.7, following a downwardly revised 93.4 in April and shy of the estimate of 93.0 points. This was the first decline after a six-month expansion.

24-05-2023 09:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD dips after disappointing UK inflation

UK headline inflation falls but the core rate jumps US debt ceiling impasse continues, boosting US dollar GBP/USD is down for a third straight day, trading at 1.2374, down 0.33%. Earlier, GBP/USD touched a low of 1.2369, its lowest level since April 18th.

24-05-2023 07:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Bulls are getting exhausted

Bearish reversal elements have been sighted for Nasdaq 100 The +30% up move from the 28 December low has reached the upper boundary of the “Ascending Wedge”, a bearish reversal chart pattern. The key short-term resistance to watch will be at 13,835. This is a follow-up on a prior report, “Nasdaq 100 bulls may be too optimistic on US CPI” that has been published earlier on 11 May (click here for a recap). The Nasdaq 100 has been the strongest performing major US stock index since October 2022 f

24-05-2023 06:12 GMT by Kelvin Wong

NZD/USD slides after RBNZ hike of 0.25%

RBNZ hikes by 0.25%, signals end of tightening cycle New Zealand retail sales decline NZD/USD slides by 1.8% The New Zealand dollar is taking a bath on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6136, down a massive 1.78% on the day.

24-05-2023 05:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

The RBNZ is seemingly done but UK inflation data shows the BoE has a lot to do

It's been a tough start to the trading day, with UK inflation data sending worrying signals while the RBNZ seemed to declare job done in its inflation battle. Bitterly disappointing inflation report from the UK The headline UK inflation number may look like a massive step in the right direction in April but the reality is that there's far more to be concerned about in the report than happy. On the one hand, inflation has slipped significantly from 10.1% to 8.7%.

24-05-2023 04:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil prices rise after Saudi warning, gold steady ahead of FOMC minutes

Oil continues higher as short-sellers warned to "watch out" Oil prices are trading higher again on Wednesday, buoyed by the latest short-seller warning from Saudi Arabia. The prospect of another "ouching" moment is seemingly too much to bear although if past experience is anything to go by, traders may be tempted to call his bluff. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told short-sellers to watch out during his most recent comments on the market which come a little before the next OP

24-05-2023 04:41 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil sellers fret over Saudi threat, API Inventory decline 6.799 million barrels

API inventory data posts 6.799 million barrel drop vs 0.525 million expected build, Cushing rises 1.71 million Gold steadies as dollar rally extends Bitcoin streak of monthly gains is in jeopardy Oil On Wall Street, we have the mantra of ‘Don’t fight the Fed’, but that is currently being tested as investors continue to price in rate cuts for later this year. Energy traders have quickly learned that when it comes to oil prices, you ‘Don’t fight the Saudis’ as they will do whatever it takes to d

23-05-2023 16:36 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks plunge as debt deadline nears

Stock breadth deteriorates as equal versus cap-weighted S&P ratio falls to lowest levels since early 2022 Treasury cash balance rises to $68.3 billion on May 22nd Risk appetite struggles as little progress made over raising debt ceiling US stocks are declining as debt ceiling talks have hit a major roadblock and the latest round of economic data suggests the disinflation process is going to start to struggle. What is also weighing on sentiment is the China-US confrontation which could put add

23-05-2023 16:21 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD drifting lower ahead of UK inflation

UK inflation expected to fall sharply on Wednesday IMF revises upwards UK growth forecast GBP/USD is trading quietly at 1.2423, down 0.11% on the day. UK inflation expected to ease UK inflation has been a thorn in the side of the Bank of England for months and is still above 10%. The UK releases the April inflation report on Wednesday and relief may finally have arrived.

23-05-2023 12:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Traders hesitant as debt ceiling talks continue, IMF cautiously optimistic, more Saudi warnings

Equity markets are broadly lower on Tuesday as traders monitor debt ceiling talks in Washington, take note of new IMF forecasts, and hear fresh warnings from the Saudi Energy Minister. Once again, it's been a relatively lively day as far as headlines are concerned and yet there's still a feeling of hesitance in the markets. We're still waiting to see a resolution on the debt ceiling, which will undoubtedly come, after more promising talks between President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy. At th

23-05-2023 10:55 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil edges higher, gold remains supported at $1960

Oil edges higher after fresh warnings from Saudi Energy Minister Oil prices have nudged higher today following another warning from Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman that short-sellers will be "ouching" as they did in April. "Watch out" was the message ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting early next month in what may be a sign that the group is considering cutting output once more amid a more bleak global economic outlook. Of course, actions speak louder than words and traders haven't

23-05-2023 10:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD slips ahead of RBNZ decision

New Zealand retail sales expected to decline RBNZ projected to deliver 25-bp hike The New Zealand dollar is lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6259, down 0.45% on the day. Debt ceiling impasse boosts US yields The US dollar is higher against most of the majors today, as the markets remain nervous about the US debt ceiling standoff.

23-05-2023 10:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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