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Seventh-inning stretch for the debt ceiling deal
Consumer Confidence hits 6-month low Nvidia joins the $1 Trillion club Treasury Yields tumble on debt deal optimism; 10-year falls 11.4 bps to 3.685 Wall Street has returned from a long weekend with a bit of optimism that the US will avert a potentially disastrous default. The Nasdaq is leading the way after Nvidia joined the $1 trillion in value club after announcing a couple key partnerships and outlining several AI -related products. The spotlight remains on Washington DC and the House Ru
30-05-2023 14:11 GMT by Edward Moya
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Debt ceiling deal a huge relief but focus now switches to the jobs report
It's been another uninspiring session on Tuesday with traders buoyed by the deal reached on the debt ceiling but still concerned about inflation and interest rates ahead of the jobs report on Friday. A massive step forward on the path to avoiding default The debt ceiling distraction is almost behind us, with the House and Senate expected to vote this week on the deal that was reached between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the weekend. That will put an end to fears o
30-05-2023 13:03 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil prices dip with eye on OPEC, gold higher after debt ceiling deal
How much sway does Saudi Arabia still have? Oil prices are slipping on Tuesday as traders weigh up the prospects of another OPEC+ cut this weekend. Russia's Novak last week appeared to play down the prospect of another reduction shortly after traders were warned to "watch out" by the Saudi energy minister, who hinted at another "ouching" for short-sellers. It seems Novak's words have carried more weight in the markets as traders determined that no alignment of thought will mean no deal.
30-05-2023 13:01 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Euro touches 9 week low, German CPI next
Spain's CPI eases in May German CPI to be released on Wednesday Debt ceiling likely to be approved in Congress EUR/USD has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0737, up 0.26%. Earlier, the euro dropped as low as 1.0672, its lowest level since March 20. Spanish CPI lower than expected Spain, the fourth-largest economy in the eurozone, saw inflation fall to 3.2% in May.
30-05-2023 09:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY punches above 140, Tokyo issues warning
Japanese yen falls below 140 Japan's Ministry of Finance issues warning US debt ceiling heads to Congress USD/JPY is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.17, down 0.19%. The Japanese yen continues to underperform and has plunged 2.8% in May.
30-05-2023 06:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Aussie unchanged ahead of Lowe, CPI
RBA Governor Lowe testifies before a Senate Committee Australia to release CPI US debt ceiling deal likely to be approved by Congress The Australian dollar is drifting lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6538 in Europe, unchanged on the day. RBA Governor Lowe testifies before a Senate Committee later today.
30-05-2023 04:54 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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EUR/USD Technical: Bears may be getting exhausted
The current minor downtrend phase for EUR/USD from its 3 May 2023 high of 1.1092 is showing signs of exhaustion. Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggests a potential terminal support zone of 1.0670/1.0630 for the minor downtrend phase where a possible minor mean reversion rebound may occur next. The key intermediate resistances to watch will be at 1.0725 and 1.0850. Fig 1: EUR/USD trend as of 30 May 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In the medium term (multi-week), the price ac
30-05-2023 01:43 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Swiss franc edges higher ahead of Swiss GDP, business confidence
US markets closed for a holiday US debt ceiling crisis resolved US inflation higher than expected Switzerland releases GDP and the KoF Economic Barometer The Swiss franc has edged higher on Monday and is trading at 0.9036, up o.15%. US markets are closed for Memorial Day and the currency markets have been calm today. Switzerland releases GDP and business confidence on Tuesday.
29-05-2023 11:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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New Zealand dollar stems nasty slide
US markets closed for a bank holiday New Zealand dollar steadies after a 3.6% plunge last week US inflation higher than expected The New Zealand dollar has stabilized on Monday after a disastrous week. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6057, up 0.17%. US reaches debt ceiling deal US lawmakers hammered out a debt ceiling deal over the weekend.
29-05-2023 06:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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AUD/JPY Technical: Bulls got stalled again at 200-day MA
The medium-term up move of AUD/JPY from the 24 March 2023 swing low of 86.06 got stalled again at the key 200-day moving average. Short-term downside movement seems to have resurfaced as indicated by the 4-hour RSI. Key resistance to watch will be at 92.70. Fig 1: AUD/JPY trend as of 26 May 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The recent 460 pips rally of the AUD/JPY from its 26 April 2023 minor swing low of 87.87 has stalled at the key 200-day moving average again (now acting
29-05-2023 06:04 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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US stocks at risk of liquidity drain post US debt ceiling deal
US Treasury needs to issue an approximate total amount of US$1.1 trillion in T-bills in H2 2023 to replenish its operating cash balance. Absorption of the US$1.1 trillion of T-bills issuance may trigger a significant liquidity squeeze. Liquidity conditions in the US have started to tighten reinforced by an increase in implied volatility of US Treasury bonds and a less dovish Fed. Persistent K-shaped performance led by mega-cap technology stocks in US stock indices increase the risk of a downside
29-05-2023 02:53 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Week Ahead - Turkey decides, crucial US jobs report, x-date fast approaching
US Street is starting to get nervous as we near the X-date.  A US default seemed unimaginable a couple of weeks ago and despite a lot of positive comments from both sides, negotiations will go down to the wire and that means the risk that it falls apart is growing.  Treasury Secretary Yellen will soon provide an update on the X-date and that could show talks might have an extra week from the current June 1st deadline to get a deal done.
26-05-2023 12:45 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil volatile after a week of mixed messages, US inflation bad news for gold
Oil markets volatile ahead of OPEC+ meeting next weekend Oil prices are recovering slightly after a volatile week amid conflicting commentary from key members of the OPEC+ alliance. From a "watch out" warning from the Saudi Energy Minister to a suggestion that the group will not cut output next weekend, traders have been left a little confused as to what we can expect. It may be that Saudi Arabia wants to keep traders on their toes but to make these comments and not follow through could be perce
26-05-2023 12:41 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Another setback for central banks as inflation remains stubborn and spending strong
The Fed may not be done after all Investors may have underestimated the pace of disinflation this year if economic data this week is anything to go by, with US figures today further enforcing the view that price pressures are stubborn and spending healthy. The headline PCE price index brought the biggest surprise, jumping 0.4% on the month against expectations of zero increase, but the core reading also brought an upside surprise, as did spending which jumped 0.8%, double the consensus view. Sud
26-05-2023 12:39 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil higher on debt deal optimism and resilient US economy, gold struggles, Crypto steadies
Energy traders carefully monitoring for any Russian-Saudi tensions Hawkish data and debt deal optimism weigh on gold Cryptos benefitting from today's broader market rally Oil Crude prices are rising after another round of impressive economic data exemplifies how resilient the US economy remains. Debt deal negotiations appear to also be heading in the right direction, but talks could easily fall apart as the far wings of both parties will need to make concessions. Energy traders might refrain fr
26-05-2023 12:24 GMT by Edward Moya
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Debt-Limit talks advance and there goes the cooling inflation narrative
Dollar approaches 2-month high; 2-year yield rises 8.1 bps to 4.616%, the 11th straight day of gains, longest streak since September Fed's Mester noted that the previous rate hikes will effect the econonmy Inflation is looking stickier than ever as the PCE supercore surges US stocks are rallying as Washington DC nears a debt deal ahead of the long weekend. ​ The risks that a debt deal could fall apart at the 11th hour remains, which makes Treasury Secretary Yellen’s update over the X-date criti
26-05-2023 12:14 GMT by Edward Moya
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Novak and USD crush oil prices, Gold and Bitcoin diverge
Dollar rally sends gold to lowest levels since March and the yen to the weakest levels since November Russian/Saudi in focus as Novak clarifies earlier comments Bitcoin outperforming gold as it continues to hold onto critical support Oil Crude prices are weakening as king dollar returns and after Russia slashes any Saudi hope of delivering another production cut at the June 4th meeting.  Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, "I don't think that there will be any new steps, becaus
25-05-2023 15:42 GMT by Edward Moya
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