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BOC rate hike rattles stock, bond and gold markets

Stocks are declining after investors got spooked when the Bank of Canada restarted their rate hiking campaign. Canada’s central bank is viewed as one of the leaders when it comes to being proactive with monetary policy. They were the first to raise rates in 2022 and then put them on hold earlier this year. The BOC is signaling that more rate hikes could come and that has everyone rethinking that the Fed will be done after the July hike. Oil Crude prices are higher after the EIA report

07-06-2023 14:10 GMT by Edward Moya

Yields surge after surprise BOC hike & on reports Messi signs with Inter Miami

Wall Street has been on a heightened watch to see if major central banks might be unleashing significantly more tightening and over who will sign Leonel Messi? At the 10am hour in New York, we got answers to both questions. The BBC reported that Lionel Messi has decided not to return to Barcelona and join Inter Miami. Inter Miami has been struggling all season long and saw their odds go from 150/1 to 25/1 to win MLS Cup 2023. If confirmed, this would be massive for consumer spending as MLS g

07-06-2023 11:51 GMT by Edward Moya

Canadian dollar calm ahead of BoC rate announcement

Bank of Canada likely to pause at today's meeting Fed expected to pause next week The Canadian dollar is unchanged, trading at 1.3400 in the North American session. Bank of Canada expected to hold rates The Bank of Canada meets later today, and the money markets are expecting another pause, which would leave the benchmark rate at 4.5%. The BoC's rate-tightening cycle has been on a "conditional pause", which is another way of saying that rate decisions are data-dependent, especially on inflati

07-06-2023 08:56 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

China-HK equities see the return of positive animal spirits

Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng TECH Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index have outperformed US and Asia Pacific Ex Japan in the near term. China’s thematic exchange-traded funds listed in the US have recorded their best outperformance against the MSCI All-World Index since January/March 2023. An impending cut in China’s major banks’ deposit rates and a weak balance of trade data for May have increased the expectations of a cut to the one-year MLF interest rate next week. Since last Wednesda

07-06-2023 06:58 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD rises to 1-month high, shrugs off soft GDP

AUD/USD powers to 1-month high Australian GDP dips to 0.2% RBA expected to deliver more rate hikes The Australian dollar has extended its rally on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6689, up 0.28%.

07-06-2023 05:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Weak global trade weighs on Chinese exports, Australian growth slows, oil slips further

European indices and US futures look a little flat following a mixed session in Asia overnight, as Chinese trade data failed to inspire while Australian GDP pointed to further pain as the RBA continues raising rates. Disappointing trade figures increase calls for stimulus Chinese trade data offered further evidence of weakening demand both domestically and abroad, with exports falling particularly hard last month. A 7.5% decline far exceeded the -0.4% expected, while imports actually beat foreca

07-06-2023 04:01 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil slips further, gold treading water

Oil remains under pressure after Saudi cut Oil prices are falling again today as Saudi Arabia's attempt to dress up a unilateral move as a group cut fails to have the desired impact. Crude is now trading below the level it ended at Friday which suggests that, despite the knee-jerk reaction on Monday, traders were hedging against broader action from OPEC+ and got a light version of the deal they feared. While Saudi Arabia remains price-driven, the market is more concerned with the economic outloo

07-06-2023 03:52 GMT by Craig Erlam

Stocks struggle for direction, AUD rises after suprising hawkish hike

Treasury yields edge higher; 10-year rises 2.3bps to 3.706% Apple momentum stalls on skepticism with $3,499 headset VIX touches lowest level since 2021 Stocks After a valiant attempt at entering a bull market, stocks are wavering as Wall Street contemplates how much more tightening will we see by the Fed. Providing some support for equities was news that Secretary of State Blinken is expected to make a visit to China and meet with key officials. Any progress in cooling tensions with the wor

06-06-2023 13:06 GMT by Edward Moya

Bitcoin turns positive as SEC plays Whac-A-Mole with crypto exchanges

Gensler "These trading platforms, they call themselves exchanges, are commingling a number of functions" Gensler "Look, we don’t need more digital currency" Bitcoin rebounds after falling to lowest levels since March The SEC looks like it is playing Whac-A-Mole with crypto exchanges. The first crypto exchange to get the regulatory hammer was Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange. The next crypto exchange to get hit with an SEC lawsuit was Coinbase and it seems like this is just the beg

06-06-2023 12:53 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro edges lower on weak German, eurozone numbers

Eurozone and German releases were softer than expected ECB expected to hike at next week's meeting The euro has edged lower on Tuesday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0695 in the North American session, down 0.16%. Eurozone and German releases were soft on Tuesday.

06-06-2023 12:07 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY shrugs after weak Japanese numbers, Japanese GDP next

Japan's consumer spending and income falls in April Ministry of Finance sends warning about weak yen The Japanese yen is steady on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 139.81, up 0.18%. Japan's numbers weaker than expected Japanese data disappointed on Tuesday.

06-06-2023 11:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD extends gains after RBA surprise

AUD/USD rally continues for fourth straight day RBA surprises with 25-bp hike Australia releases GDP early Wednesday The Australian dollar continues to roll and has extended its rally on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6659, up 0.63% on the day.

06-06-2023 05:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD short-term bulls supported by hawkish RBA and China

RBA surprised again with a 25-bps hike to raise the official cash rate to 4.10% Rumoured China’s property market stimulus measures also created a positive feedback loop back into AUD/USD. Short-term minor uptrend in place for AUD/USD with key resistance to watch at 0.6790. The Aussie dollar has been resilient against the US dollar since last Friday, 2 June ex-post better the expected US non-farms payroll/jobs data for May. The AUD/USD has managed to stage a rally of +1.45% to today's 6 June cur

06-06-2023 01:12 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Russell 2000 Technical: Short-term bearish momentum resurfaced

Russell 2000 has resumed its underperformance against the rest of the US benchmark stock indices after failing to have a follow-through from last Friday’s stellar gain of + 3.56%. Major downtrend phase in place since its 8 November 2021 all-time high remains intact. Short-term downside momentum has resurfaced below 1,835 key resistance. Fig 1: US Russ 2000 major trend as of 6 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Fig 2: US Russ 2000 minor trend as of 6 Jun 2023 (Source: Tr

05-06-2023 21:32 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Saudis solo-cut oil pop faded, Gold rises, Crypto crushed as Binance Sued by SEC

Saudis raises prices to Asia after surprise solo-output cut Gold rises as Fed hike odds edge lower after soft ISM services report SEC goes after Binance and CZ Oil The Saudis are going at it alone in doing whatever it takes to stabilize oil prices. The Saudi problem is that energy traders aren’t believing the kingdom has enough power to sway all OPEC+ to deliver meaningful action. The Sunday decision to deliver a solo-cut triggered a near 5% jump on the open, but that quickly disappeared.

05-06-2023 14:01 GMT by Edward Moya

The most-hated Bull Market Rally

Apple unveils first large-screen Macbook, faster chip ISM Services Index confirms slowdown is coming S&P 500 testing bull market territory from October lows US stocks are rallying as Apple eyes a record high ahead of the Cupertino developers’ conference. Apple's WWDC is expected to unveil a mixed-reality headset, fresh Macs and macOS 14, iOS 17 and iPadOS 17, and watchOS 10.

05-06-2023 13:37 GMT by Edward Moya

Services PMIs point to broader economic weakness

A raft of weaker services surveys have weighed on sentiment in Europe at the start of the week while Wall Street is more of a mixed bag. Investors are still digesting Friday's jobs report which didn't settle the debate on whether the Fed should pause or not ahead of the meeting next week. There were positives and negatives in the report but ultimately now it comes down to the inflation data next week. The services PMIs today have broadly disappointed despite remaining in a healthy position.

05-06-2023 12:15 GMT by Craig Erlam

OPEC+ not as unified as it appears

Oil pares gains as traders question OPEC+ unity The Saudis got their output cut after intense negotiations over the weekend; the only downside being that no one else opted to be a part of it until the start of 2024. It became clear last week that Saudi Arabia was going to be pushing for a cut at the weekend meeting and that getting others on board may prove difficult.

05-06-2023 12:10 GMT by Craig Erlam

Japanese yen slips below 140 after US nonfarm payrolls

US nonfarm payrolls surges to 339,000 Japan releases household spending and average cash earnings early Tuesday USD/JPY has drifted lower on Monday and is trading at 139.65, down 0.23%. The yen fell close to 1% on Friday after a sizzling US nonfarm payrolls report. Japan's economy has been showing signs of recovery, notably in manufacturing and services, where the May PMIs accelerated and beat the forecasts.

05-06-2023 12:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Podcast - Saudis lead OPEC+ production cut, RBA to come this week

OANDA Senior Market Analysts Craig Erlam and Kelvin Wong join Jonny Hart to discuss the start of the trading week, OPEC+ output cut, and RBA rate decision on Tuesday.

05-06-2023 12:00 GMT by Craig Erlam

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