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Weak Global PMIs trigger risk aversion, Bostic favors no more hikes,
Stocks tumble on fears monetary tightening will trigger a recession Fed rate hike bets still only pricing in one last rate increase European bond yields plunge on downbeat global sentiment US stocks are sliding as the global growth outlook continues to deteriorate following soft global PMI readings.  The risk of a sharper economic downturn is greater for Europe than it is for the US, so that could keep the dollar supported over the short-term.  This has been an ugly week for stocks and that is
by Edward Moya
Economic jitters hurt oil and boost gold, Crypto unfazed
Recession risks drive safe-haven flows gold's way Oil has worst weekly decline since May Bitcoin tests highest level in a year Oil Oil prices are declining on fears that a European recession and delayed stimulus from China will spell trouble for the global growth outlook.  Next week, the heads of the major central banks will gather in Portugal and likely signal a commitment to tackle inflation with aggressive rate hikes. Energy traders are worried that the Fed and friends might cripple econom
by Edward Moya
GBP/USD shrugs after solid UK retail sales report
UK posts better-than-expected retail sales, consumer confidence British pound shrugs after BoE's sharp rate hike US to release ISM Services PMI later on Friday The British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2729, down 0.15%.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY rallies, Japanese inflation remains above target
USD/JPY climbs above 143 Japan's core CPI remains above 3% The Japanese yen has stabilized on Friday after falling close to 1% a day earlier.  In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.05, down 0.04%. Earlier, USD/JPY touched a high of 143.45, the highest level since early November 2022. On the data calendar, the US releases ISM Services PMI later today.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY surged to a 7-month high but fundamentals diverge
USD/JPY rallied by 100 pips and broke above 142.50 resistance in yesterday’s NY session. Japan’s headline inflation for May softened but the core-core rate (excluding fresh food & energy) accelerated to 4.3% y/y, a 42-year high. High direct correlation between USD/JPY & Nikkei 225 has dissipated. Watch the next key resistance zone of 145.50/146.10 for USD/JPY. In a stunning move, the USD/JPY has rallied by 100 pips from the start of yesterday, the 22 June US session to print an intraday high of
by Kelvin Wong
Oil and gold tumble as central bank tightening threatens global outlook, Bitcoin at $30k
Oil Oil prices are going to remain heavy as central bank tightening will kill the global growth outlook. ​ Energy traders will keep a close eye on today’s stockpile that might show a modest draw. ​ The oil market will remain heavy until European inflation eases. ​ Brent crude could make a run towards the $70 region but should rebound once we finally see significant easing come from Beijing. A bullish EIA crude oil inventory report was unable to stop WTI crude's selling pressure.  Stockpiles decl
by Edward Moya
Canadian dollar gets boost from sizzling retail sales
Canada's retail sales higher than expected Fed's Powell stays hawkish, signals two rate hikes The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged in the North American session, trading at 1.3165. Canada's retail sales surprise to the upside Canadian retail sales rebounded impressively in April, after declining in March. Headline retail sales jumped 1.1% m/m in April, after a -1.5% reading in March and crushing the consensus of 0.2%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Hawks in charge of Central Bank-a-Palooza (BOE, CBRT, Norges)
BOE raises rates by 50bps to 5.00% (not expected) CBRT raises rates 650bps to 15.00% (less-than-expected) Norges raises rate 50bps to 3.75% (not expected) The European growth picture isn't looking good at all.  After a steady dose of hawkish central bank decisions, it appears clear that tightening from here on out will torpedo the European economy. BOE The BOE’s inflation fight will force them to tank the UK economy.  The British pound rallied after the BOE delivered a half-point rate
by Edward Moya
BoE slams on the brakes again, CBRT a step in the right direction
The Bank of England accelerated its tightening efforts after meeting this week, hiking rates by 0.5% in response to another raft of worrying inflation data. And it's not just yesterday's CPI data that will have caused considerable discomfort for the MPC; the April figures were also far too high and wage numbers we've had in the interim suggest it's becoming increasingly embedded. That had to have caused serious alarm within the BoE, within seven members of the committee anyway. Two policymaker
by Craig Erlam
SNB opts for smaller hike but signals it isn't done yet
The Swiss National Bank slowed the pace of its tightening cycle on Thursday, in line with market expectations but signaled there is more to come. While most central banks would dream of 2.2% inflation right now, the SNB has made clear that there will be no complacency. Today's hike likely doesn't mark the end of its cycle, with another 25 basis points expected in September.
by Craig Erlam
British pound steady ahead of BoE rate decision
BoE expected to raise rates at Wednesday's meeting Powell signals two more rate hikes this year The British pound is calm on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2786, up 0.15%. It has been a quiet week for the British pound, although I expect to see more movement after the Bank of England announces its rate decision later today. Will BoE deliver 50-bp hike? It would be an understatement to say that BoE hasn't gotten the job down on the inflation front.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/USD Technical: Looking to resume minor up move
Recent drop of 156 pips from the current 52-week high of 1.2848 has not damaged GBP/USD minor uptrend. Price actions so far have been trading above upward sloping 13-day moving average now acting as support at 1.2630. Short-term upside momentum seems to have resurfaced as indicated by the hourly RSI oscillator. The ongoing medium-term uptrend phase of GBP/USD in place since the 26 September 2022 low of 1.0359 has hit a current 52-week high of 1.2848 last Friday, 16 June. In the past week, it h
by Kelvin Wong
Hawkish Powell weighs on stocks, 50 basis points on the table for the BoE
European stocks are poised to open a little lower on Thursday, tracking moves we saw in the US on Wednesday following Jerome Powell's appearance in Congress. The Fed Chair appeared before the House Financial Services Committee and very much stuck to last week's script, which should come as a surprise to no one. Inflation is not under control and the vast majority at the Fed believe more rate hikes will be warranted was the message, although we got that from the dot plot. For once, markets are
by Craig Erlam
Oil remains choppy, gold eyes BoE decision
Oil remains choppy but edging towards the upper end of its range Oil prices remain very volatile as we've seen over the last week. Trading has been very choppy as traders have tried to reconcile weaker Chinese growth, slightly more modest support from the PBOC, more hawkish central banks, and resilient economies.
by Craig Erlam
Powell’s higher for longer interest rates spook risk assets and USD
High-duration US stocks underperformed, Nasdaq 100 on track for worst weekly performance since 6 March 2023. US dollar sold off with the USD Dollar Index at risk of breaking below 100.95 key support. Asian stock markets are on weak footing despite the current bout of USD weakness. In his first semi-annual US congressional testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that the Fed’s current objective is to reduce elevated inflationary pressures t
by Kelvin Wong
Stocks lower as Hawkish Powell doubles down on tightening threat
Dollar drops after 3-day rally Powell remains hawkish; bringing down inflation has a long way to go Fed swaps price in a 69.2% chance of a hike at the July 26th FOMC meeting US stocks declined as Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to the House affirmed the Fed’s threat of higher rates to combat inflation.  Wall Street should not have been surprised by Fed Chair Powell’s commitment to vanquish inflation, but swap futures are still only pricing in one more rate hike.  Powell reiterated that the economy
by Edward Moya
Swiss franc drifting ahead of SNB rate decision
Swiss National Bank expected to raise interest rates on Thursday Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress Wednesday and Thursday The Swiss franc is showing little movement on Wednesday, trading at 0.8984 in the North American session. Will Swiss National Bank deliver a hawkish surprise? The Swiss National Bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday, and the meeting is live, as the markets have priced a 0.50% hike at 60% and a 0.25% at 40%. The current benchmark rate is 1.50%.
by Kenneth Fisher
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