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Hawks in charge of Central Bank-a-Palooza (BOE, CBRT, Norges)
BOE raises rates by 50bps to 5.00% (not expected) CBRT raises rates 650bps to 15.00% (less-than-expected) Norges raises rate 50bps to 3.75% (not expected) The European growth picture isn't looking good at all.  After a steady dose of hawkish central bank decisions, it appears clear that tightening from here on out will torpedo the European economy. BOE The BOE’s inflation fight will force them to tank the UK economy.  The British pound rallied after the BOE delivered a half-point rate
by Edward Moya
BoE slams on the brakes again, CBRT a step in the right direction
The Bank of England accelerated its tightening efforts after meeting this week, hiking rates by 0.5% in response to another raft of worrying inflation data. And it's not just yesterday's CPI data that will have caused considerable discomfort for the MPC; the April figures were also far too high and wage numbers we've had in the interim suggest it's becoming increasingly embedded. That had to have caused serious alarm within the BoE, within seven members of the committee anyway. Two policymaker
by Craig Erlam
SNB opts for smaller hike but signals it isn't done yet
The Swiss National Bank slowed the pace of its tightening cycle on Thursday, in line with market expectations but signaled there is more to come. While most central banks would dream of 2.2% inflation right now, the SNB has made clear that there will be no complacency. Today's hike likely doesn't mark the end of its cycle, with another 25 basis points expected in September.
by Craig Erlam
British pound steady ahead of BoE rate decision
BoE expected to raise rates at Wednesday's meeting Powell signals two more rate hikes this year The British pound is calm on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2786, up 0.15%. It has been a quiet week for the British pound, although I expect to see more movement after the Bank of England announces its rate decision later today. Will BoE deliver 50-bp hike? It would be an understatement to say that BoE hasn't gotten the job down on the inflation front.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/USD Technical: Looking to resume minor up move
Recent drop of 156 pips from the current 52-week high of 1.2848 has not damaged GBP/USD minor uptrend. Price actions so far have been trading above upward sloping 13-day moving average now acting as support at 1.2630. Short-term upside momentum seems to have resurfaced as indicated by the hourly RSI oscillator. The ongoing medium-term uptrend phase of GBP/USD in place since the 26 September 2022 low of 1.0359 has hit a current 52-week high of 1.2848 last Friday, 16 June. In the past week, it h
by Kelvin Wong
Hawkish Powell weighs on stocks, 50 basis points on the table for the BoE
European stocks are poised to open a little lower on Thursday, tracking moves we saw in the US on Wednesday following Jerome Powell's appearance in Congress. The Fed Chair appeared before the House Financial Services Committee and very much stuck to last week's script, which should come as a surprise to no one. Inflation is not under control and the vast majority at the Fed believe more rate hikes will be warranted was the message, although we got that from the dot plot. For once, markets are
by Craig Erlam
Oil remains choppy, gold eyes BoE decision
Oil remains choppy but edging towards the upper end of its range Oil prices remain very volatile as we've seen over the last week. Trading has been very choppy as traders have tried to reconcile weaker Chinese growth, slightly more modest support from the PBOC, more hawkish central banks, and resilient economies.
by Craig Erlam
Powell’s higher for longer interest rates spook risk assets and USD
High-duration US stocks underperformed, Nasdaq 100 on track for worst weekly performance since 6 March 2023. US dollar sold off with the USD Dollar Index at risk of breaking below 100.95 key support. Asian stock markets are on weak footing despite the current bout of USD weakness. In his first semi-annual US congressional testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that the Fed’s current objective is to reduce elevated inflationary pressures t
by Kelvin Wong
Stocks lower as Hawkish Powell doubles down on tightening threat
Dollar drops after 3-day rally Powell remains hawkish; bringing down inflation has a long way to go Fed swaps price in a 69.2% chance of a hike at the July 26th FOMC meeting US stocks declined as Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to the House affirmed the Fed’s threat of higher rates to combat inflation.  Wall Street should not have been surprised by Fed Chair Powell’s commitment to vanquish inflation, but swap futures are still only pricing in one more rate hike.  Powell reiterated that the economy
by Edward Moya
Swiss franc drifting ahead of SNB rate decision
Swiss National Bank expected to raise interest rates on Thursday Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress Wednesday and Thursday The Swiss franc is showing little movement on Wednesday, trading at 0.8984 in the North American session. Will Swiss National Bank deliver a hawkish surprise? The Swiss National Bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday, and the meeting is live, as the markets have priced a 0.50% hike at 60% and a 0.25% at 40%. The current benchmark rate is 1.50%.
by Kenneth Fisher
DJIA Technical: Broke minor support ahead and underperformed
Dow Jones Industrial Average has underperformed against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in the past 2 sessions. Broke minor support yesterday now turns into key short-term resistance at 34,310. Sill sandwiched within a complex sideways range configuration in the medium-term horizon with its range resistance at 34,630. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has continued to be one of the underperformers among the major US benchmark stock indices ex-post Q2 “Triple Witching” options expiration since
by Kelvin Wong
Is the BoE prepared to step up its inflation fight in light of another devastating inflation report?
Policymakers at the Bank of England will be scratching their heads this morning wondering what they have to do to get inflation down, with the latest CPI report another setback in the central bank's ambition of delivering price stability and a soft landing. While there are many reasons to be confident that inflation should fall sharply over the coming months including lower energy and food price contributions, it's hard to be too optimistic when the data keeps consistently coming in well above
by Craig Erlam
Oil in choppy waters, UK inflation spike puts pressure on gold
A very choppy start to the week for oil prices Oil prices have been very choppy at the start of the week as traders digest weaker economic prospects against higher Iranian output and a slightly more modest rate cut in China. There are so many moving parts at this stage but at this point in time, there's more negative than positive as far as the crude price is concerned. Additional supply from Iran is undermining Saudi Arabia's efforts to desperately manipulate prices higher with production cuts.
by Craig Erlam
AI FOMO versus economic realities
“Artificial Intelligence” (AI) equity-theme plays are the main contributor so far in the current bull market. Non-technology companies are now jumping into the AI-related bandwagon. The gap between current AI optimism and economic cyclical factors has widened.
by Kelvin Wong
Risk aversion weigh on oil and gold, Bitcoin rises on BlackRock planned ETF and EDX launch
Oil Crude prices are lower on disappointment with the size of cuts with China’s key lending rates. ​ Oil seems locked in on anything and everything that has to do with China. ​ Last week, oil was supported by improving Chinese refiner quotas. ​ This week, energy traders are seeing oil weakness emerge on disappointing stimulus efforts. ​ WTI crude looks like it is starting to find some decent support at the $68 region and that should hold as long the Fed does spook markets that they might be read
by Edward Moya
Stocks lower as PBOC stimulus disappoints and despite Blinken's constructive trip
Wall Street awaits a week full of hawkish Fed speak Global risk aversion settles in as PBOC stimulus disappoints US-China relations improve but no significant breakthroughs are expected US stocks are starting on softer footing on disappointment from the PBOC’s stimulus efforts for the struggling property market and on expectations Fed Chair Powell will defend the FOMC’s dot plots. ​ Improving sentiment with US-China relations was somewhat faded as the yuan was fixed at the lowest levels since N
by Edward Moya
New Zealand dollar slides as consumer confidence stays weak
NZD/USD is down 1.3% this week New Zealand consumer confidence rises Powell to testify before a House Committee on Wednesday The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower for a second straight day. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6148, down 0.83%. New Zealand consumer confidence rises New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence accelerated to 83.1 in May, up from 77.7 in April and above the consensus of 76.2 points.
by Kenneth Fisher
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