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CHF/JPY Technical: Rallied above 43-year high

Current impulsive up move of CHF/JPY has cleared above major resistances of 157.98 & 158.45. Short-term momentum remains bullish. 159.90 is the key short-term support to watch. The CHF/JPY cross has continued to its relentless rally as it broke above key resistance levels; 157.98 (the high obtained right during the EUR/CHF unpegged shock in January 2015) and 158.45 (Oct 1979 major swing high). Broke above Oct 1979 major swing high of 158.45 Fig 1: CHF/JPY long-term secular trend as of 27 Jun

27-06-2023 06:56 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD pushes higher, CPI next

Australian inflation expected to slow in May The inflation report will have a significant impact on RBA decision in July The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. AUD/USD rose as high as 50 pips earlier but has pared these gains and is trading at 0.6685, up 0.16%. The Australian dollar is showing some life after last week's awful performance, in which it declined by 2.87%. Markets eye Australian CPI On Wednesday, Australia releases the monthly inflation report for May.

27-06-2023 05:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

A slow start to the week, central bank speak and key data eyed

It's been a relatively slow start to the week so far but things are likely to pick up with more appearances from prominent central bankers and key data due for release in the coming days. Equity markets are a little higher early in the European session after what has been a tough couple of weeks. Stubborn inflation has investors concerned that there may be a much heavier economic price to pay for restoring price stability which appears to have shaken confidence a little. Not only are more rate h

27-06-2023 04:29 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil in choppy waters, stubborn inflation weighs on gold

Oil remains volatile but range-bound amid an uncertain outlook Oil is trading a little higher on Tuesday after rebounding off the lows in very choppy conditions in recent days. While there will of course be various contributing factors behind these moves, the fact remains that oil is trading within the same range it has for almost two months and what we're continuing to see is it fluctuate roughly between the upper and lower boundaries. Brent has fallen just short of the previous lows now on fou

27-06-2023 04:22 GMT by Craig Erlam

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Risk of a medium-term blow-off top

Yesterday’s price action of Nasdaq 100 has reintegrated back below the upper limit of the “Ascending Wedge” with a bearish breakdown below its daily RSI momentum indicator. Short-term momentum is still bearish as the Index has broken below the 20-day moving average which has also turned flat. 14,980 is the key short-term resistance to watch. This is a follow-up on our prior analysis “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Squeezed up ahead of CPI and FOMC” published on 13 June 2023. It rallied and hit the key 1

27-06-2023 00:13 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar eyes inflation report

Canada's inflation expected to ease in May The inflation data could be a key factor in BoC's July rate decision The Canadian dollar moved higher earlier on Monday but has pared these gains. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3169, down 0.10%.

26-06-2023 11:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro yawns as German business climate falls

German Business Confidence falls for second straight month ECB's Lagarde hosts central banking conference in Portugal EUR/USD is drifting higher on Monday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0917, up 0.20%. German business confidence slips Germany once prided itself as being the locomotive of the eurozone, which blazed the way with a strong economy.

26-06-2023 08:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen edges lower after verbal intervention

Tokyo sends warning over yen's deprecation Yen has slumped over 7% against US dollar since April USD/JPY is in positive territory on Monday. In the European session, the yen is trading at 143.15, down 0.36%. Tokyo issues warning over slumping yen The Japanese yen continues to lose ground and the Japanese government is not amused.

26-06-2023 05:12 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Geopolitical chaos, FX Intervention, and US banks’ stress test results

Russia’s weekend mutiny cast doubts on Putin’s grip on power. No major impact on markets but keep a lookout on Gold, which bounced off the key support zone of US$1,913/1,896 per ounce. Stern FX verbal intervention from Japan’s top currency official. Watch USD/JPY key near-term support at 142.50/25. US banking stocks tumbled ahead of annual key Fed’s banks’ stress test results Before the start of this new trading week, market participants were being jolted from their weekend leisure activities

26-06-2023 02:57 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Week Ahead - Inflation and Recession Risks

While Europe appears at great risk for a recession as traders bet on aggressive rate rises by all the European central banks, the Fed is still expected to be nearing the end of their respective rate hiking campaign. The focus in the US will fall on the PCE readings. If inflation comes down as expected, the swap futures might grow even more confident that the Fed will only deliver one more rate hike.

23-06-2023 15:16 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Tightening to a recession

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to analyze the flash global PMIs, the UK's mortgage crisis, Elon Musk Vs Mark Zuckerberg, and the return of the crypto bulls.

23-06-2023 14:36 GMT by Edward Moya

Weak Global PMIs trigger risk aversion, Bostic favors no more hikes,

Stocks tumble on fears monetary tightening will trigger a recession Fed rate hike bets still only pricing in one last rate increase European bond yields plunge on downbeat global sentiment US stocks are sliding as the global growth outlook continues to deteriorate following soft global PMI readings. The risk of a sharper economic downturn is greater for Europe than it is for the US, so that could keep the dollar supported over the short-term. This has been an ugly week for stocks and that is

23-06-2023 11:47 GMT by Edward Moya

Economic jitters hurt oil and boost gold, Crypto unfazed

Recession risks drive safe-haven flows gold's way Oil has worst weekly decline since May Bitcoin tests highest level in a year Oil Oil prices are declining on fears that a European recession and delayed stimulus from China will spell trouble for the global growth outlook. Next week, the heads of the major central banks will gather in Portugal and likely signal a commitment to tackle inflation with aggressive rate hikes. Energy traders are worried that the Fed and friends might cripple econom

23-06-2023 10:32 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro skids after soft PMI data, markets eye ISM Mfg. PMI

Eurozone and German PMIs weakened in June EUR/USD fell as much as 110 pips on Friday EUR/USD has taken a tumble on Friday. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0885, down 0.64%.

23-06-2023 09:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD shrugs after solid UK retail sales report

UK posts better-than-expected retail sales, consumer confidence British pound shrugs after BoE's sharp rate hike US to release ISM Services PMI later on Friday The British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2729, down 0.15%.

23-06-2023 07:06 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY rallies, Japanese inflation remains above target

USD/JPY climbs above 143 Japan's core CPI remains above 3% The Japanese yen has stabilized on Friday after falling close to 1% a day earlier. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.05, down 0.04%. Earlier, USD/JPY touched a high of 143.45, the highest level since early November 2022. On the data calendar, the US releases ISM Services PMI later today.

23-06-2023 05:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY surged to a 7-month high but fundamentals diverge

USD/JPY rallied by 100 pips and broke above 142.50 resistance in yesterday’s NY session. Japan’s headline inflation for May softened but the core-core rate (excluding fresh food & energy) accelerated to 4.3% y/y, a 42-year high. High direct correlation between USD/JPY & Nikkei 225 has dissipated. Watch the next key resistance zone of 145.50/146.10 for USD/JPY. In a stunning move, the USD/JPY has rallied by 100 pips from the start of yesterday, the 22 June US session to print an intraday high of

23-06-2023 02:53 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil and gold tumble as central bank tightening threatens global outlook, Bitcoin at $30k

Oil Oil prices are going to remain heavy as central bank tightening will kill the global growth outlook. Energy traders will keep a close eye on today’s stockpile that might show a modest draw. The oil market will remain heavy until European inflation eases. Brent crude could make a run towards the $70 region but should rebound once we finally see significant easing come from Beijing. A bullish EIA crude oil inventory report was unable to stop WTI crude's selling pressure. Stockpiles decl

22-06-2023 13:39 GMT by Edward Moya

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USD/CHF - SNB hikes rates and warns more may follow

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses today's interest rate decision from the Swiss National Bank and gives his analysis of the USDCHF chart on the back of it.

22-06-2023 12:24 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar gets boost from sizzling retail sales

Canada's retail sales higher than expected Fed's Powell stays hawkish, signals two rate hikes The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged in the North American session, trading at 1.3165. Canada's retail sales surprise to the upside Canadian retail sales rebounded impressively in April, after declining in March. Headline retail sales jumped 1.1% m/m in April, after a -1.5% reading in March and crushing the consensus of 0.2%.

22-06-2023 11:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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