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EUR/USD - Will Lagarde shake up the euro?

German consumer sentiment falls ECB's Lagarde will participate in a panel discussion on policy EUR/USD has edged lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0939, up 0.20%. German consumer confidence dips The German GfK Consumer Sentiment report found that consumer confidence is expected to fall in July to -25.4, down from a downwardly revised -24.4 in June.

28-06-2023 08:24 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

All eyes on the ECB forum as central bank heads join panel discussion

Equity markets are cautiously higher in Europe while the US is poised to open relatively flat as we await appearances from the heads of the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda are due to take part in a panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking around the opening bell in the US and their comments could set the tone for the rest of the day.

28-06-2023 08:02 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil remains range-bound, gold under pressure

Oil prices hold in recent range Oil prices are edging higher again today after once again sliding back toward the range lows of the last few months. What's interesting is that, as we've seen previously, Brent crude failed to reach the previous low.

28-06-2023 07:56 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/JPY Technical: Minor downtrend remains intact

Recent two weeks of price actions in AUD/JPY have evolved into a minor downtrend. Key resistance on the minor downtrend stands at 96.00. Near-term supports are at 94.80 and 94.00. This is a follow-up on our earlier analysis, “AUD/JPY Technical: At the risk of a minor pull-back” dated 19 June 2023. Click here for a recap. The AUD/JPY has dropped as expected and almost hit the 94.80 support (printed a current intraday low of 95.15 in today’s Asia session). Today’s fall in the AUD/JPY has been r

28-06-2023 06:08 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Aussie slides to 3-week low as CPI falls sharply

Australian inflation declines more than expected AUD/USD slides in response to the inflation report US Consumer Confidence jumps The Australian dollar is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6636, down 0.75%.

28-06-2023 05:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

China’s booster from Premier Li Qiang may not last

China’s Premier Li Qiang’s morale booster speech during yesterday’s opening of the World Economic Forum’s 14th Annual Meeting of the New Champions ignited a bullish tone in China’s stock market. USD/CHH (offshore yuan) retreated from 7.2500 key intermediate resistance after PBoC’s indirect FX intervention yesterday. USD/CNH may strengthen further which may trigger another round of downside pressure in China-related equities. China’s Premier Li Qiang, also the Head of the State Council that dire

28-06-2023 01:53 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Technicals and Triggers – USD/JPY

USDJPY Yen sellers remain in control as traders become skeptical that Japan officials follow through on intervention threats. The yen has steadily weakened this quarter on US economic resilience and as the BOJ vowed to keep rates low for now along with a weak signal for a chance of future hike. Dollar Technicals The dollar index could be flashing an oversold signal and that could lead to further bets against the yen and not necessarily with European currencies that might see much more tighten

27-06-2023 15:54 GMT by Edward Moya

Tightening fears take down oil & gold, Fidelity eyes another Bitcoin ETF attempt

Oil It’s going to take a lot to change the minds of energy traders. Fears of a weaker global growth outlook are not going away anytime soon.

27-06-2023 14:26 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks rebound on strong data and AI interest

Global bond yields rise; 10-year Treasury rises 4.1bps to 3.762% Consumer Confidence hits highest levels since January 2022 Dow eyes first gain in 7 trading days US stocks are bouncing back after some strong US economic data gave a boost to consumer discretionary stocks and as investors piled back into AI trades. The losing streak had to end, but that doesn’t mean the market will resume.

27-06-2023 14:16 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD pares gains, Canadian inflation eases

Canada's inflation rate eases US Durable Goods Orders accelerate The Canadian dollar spiked and gained 50 points after Canada released the May inflation report but has pared these gains. USD/CAD is unchanged at 1.3158. Canadian inflation heads lower Canada's inflation rate fell sharply in May to 3.4%, down from 4.4% in April.

27-06-2023 09:32 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

CHF/JPY Technical: Rallied above 43-year high

Current impulsive up move of CHF/JPY has cleared above major resistances of 157.98 & 158.45. Short-term momentum remains bullish. 159.90 is the key short-term support to watch. The CHF/JPY cross has continued to its relentless rally as it broke above key resistance levels; 157.98 (the high obtained right during the EUR/CHF unpegged shock in January 2015) and 158.45 (Oct 1979 major swing high). Broke above Oct 1979 major swing high of 158.45 Fig 1: CHF/JPY long-term secular trend as of 27 Jun

27-06-2023 06:56 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD pushes higher, CPI next

Australian inflation expected to slow in May The inflation report will have a significant impact on RBA decision in July The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. AUD/USD rose as high as 50 pips earlier but has pared these gains and is trading at 0.6685, up 0.16%. The Australian dollar is showing some life after last week's awful performance, in which it declined by 2.87%. Markets eye Australian CPI On Wednesday, Australia releases the monthly inflation report for May.

27-06-2023 05:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

A slow start to the week, central bank speak and key data eyed

It's been a relatively slow start to the week so far but things are likely to pick up with more appearances from prominent central bankers and key data due for release in the coming days. Equity markets are a little higher early in the European session after what has been a tough couple of weeks. Stubborn inflation has investors concerned that there may be a much heavier economic price to pay for restoring price stability which appears to have shaken confidence a little. Not only are more rate h

27-06-2023 04:29 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil in choppy waters, stubborn inflation weighs on gold

Oil remains volatile but range-bound amid an uncertain outlook Oil is trading a little higher on Tuesday after rebounding off the lows in very choppy conditions in recent days. While there will of course be various contributing factors behind these moves, the fact remains that oil is trading within the same range it has for almost two months and what we're continuing to see is it fluctuate roughly between the upper and lower boundaries. Brent has fallen just short of the previous lows now on fou

27-06-2023 04:22 GMT by Craig Erlam

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Risk of a medium-term blow-off top

Yesterday’s price action of Nasdaq 100 has reintegrated back below the upper limit of the “Ascending Wedge” with a bearish breakdown below its daily RSI momentum indicator. Short-term momentum is still bearish as the Index has broken below the 20-day moving average which has also turned flat. 14,980 is the key short-term resistance to watch. This is a follow-up on our prior analysis “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Squeezed up ahead of CPI and FOMC” published on 13 June 2023. It rallied and hit the key 1

27-06-2023 00:13 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar eyes inflation report

Canada's inflation expected to ease in May The inflation data could be a key factor in BoC's July rate decision The Canadian dollar moved higher earlier on Monday but has pared these gains. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3169, down 0.10%.

26-06-2023 11:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro yawns as German business climate falls

German Business Confidence falls for second straight month ECB's Lagarde hosts central banking conference in Portugal EUR/USD is drifting higher on Monday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0917, up 0.20%. German business confidence slips Germany once prided itself as being the locomotive of the eurozone, which blazed the way with a strong economy.

26-06-2023 08:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen edges lower after verbal intervention

Tokyo sends warning over yen's deprecation Yen has slumped over 7% against US dollar since April USD/JPY is in positive territory on Monday. In the European session, the yen is trading at 143.15, down 0.36%. Tokyo issues warning over slumping yen The Japanese yen continues to lose ground and the Japanese government is not amused.

26-06-2023 05:12 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Geopolitical chaos, FX Intervention, and US banks’ stress test results

Russia’s weekend mutiny cast doubts on Putin’s grip on power. No major impact on markets but keep a lookout on Gold, which bounced off the key support zone of US$1,913/1,896 per ounce. Stern FX verbal intervention from Japan’s top currency official. Watch USD/JPY key near-term support at 142.50/25. US banking stocks tumbled ahead of annual key Fed’s banks’ stress test results Before the start of this new trading week, market participants were being jolted from their weekend leisure activities

26-06-2023 02:57 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Week Ahead - Inflation and Recession Risks

While Europe appears at great risk for a recession as traders bet on aggressive rate rises by all the European central banks, the Fed is still expected to be nearing the end of their respective rate hiking campaign. The focus in the US will fall on the PCE readings. If inflation comes down as expected, the swap futures might grow even more confident that the Fed will only deliver one more rate hike.

23-06-2023 15:16 GMT by Edward Moya

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