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Stocks rally as PCE report cools and on a weakening consumer, Apple eyes $3 Trillion Market Cap
Dollar weakens as inflation cools Apple reaches historic $3 trillion market cap Fed rate hike bets eye a peak at 5.410% US stocks are rallying after the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge showed the disinflation process remains intact and the consumer is showing signs of weakness. A hot inflation report and Fed swaps might have been convinced that a second-rate hike by year end was likely.  Treasury yields edged lower after the PCE report was a little dovish. US Data The core personal consumption
by Edward Moya
EUR/USD climbs as key US inflation gauge ticks lower
US Core PCE Price Index ticks lower Eurozone headline CPI eases but core CPI rises German headline and core inflation accelerate EUR/USD is trading at 1.0898 in the North American session, up 0.32%. Eurozone inflation falls but core rate rises Inflation in the eurozone continues to fall. Eurozone CPI is expected to fall to 5.5% in June, down from 6.1% in May and a notch below the consensus of 5.6%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Week Ahead - FOMC minutes and US jobs report eyed, RBA may hike again
It will be an eventful week, the ISM manufacturing report, the fourth of July Holiday, the Fed Minutes, and the nonfarm payroll report.  Wall Street is starting to believe in those Fed dot plots and this week’s economic data points may provide more evidence for the hawks.  The ISM manufacturing report is expected to show activity is stabilizing.  The Fed minutes will emphasize the fear that core inflation is proving to be stickier.
by Craig Erlam
Eurozone inflation data brings some relief for the ECB but tightening cycle likely not over
European stocks are ending the week on a high, buoyed by another encouraging inflation report that will soon support the end of the ECBs tightening cycle. Not only did the headline HICP rate fall further than expected, but the slight rebound at the core level - driven largely by unfavourable base effects, largely attributed to German transport subsidies last year - was lower than expected.
by Craig Erlam
Oil edges higher, gold struggling on US rate concerns
Oil remains range bound but ending the week on a positive Oil prices are edging higher again today but given how they've traded over the last couple of months I'm struggling to read too much into it. The inventory data on Wednesday was bullish on the face of it and the eurozone inflation data today won't do it any harm either, but uninspiring Chinese PMIs overnight don't fill me with confidence. Broadly speaking, it's range-bound as it has been since early May, and showing little signs of breaki
by Craig Erlam
USD/CAD flat ahead of Canadian GDP
Canada release GDP on Friday US publishes Core PCE Price Index, UoM Consumer Sentiment on Friday The Canadian dollar is flat on Friday, trading at 1.3258 in the European session. Will Canada's GDP shake up the Canadian dollar? Canada releases GDP for May later on Friday. The consensus stands at 0.2% m/m, which translates into 2.4% annualized, a respectable gain.
by Kenneth Fisher
Japanese yen flirts with 145, Core CPI ticks upwards
Japanese yen briefly falls below 145 line Tokyo Core CPI rises to 3.2% US GDP revised higher,  unemployment claims slide USD/JPY is showing limited movement, trading at 144.62 in the European session. The yen briefly fell below the symbolic 145 line earlier today. Tokyo Core CPI inches higher Tokyo Core CPI, a key inflation gauge, moved slightly higher in June.
by Kenneth Fisher
Bullish US stocks and bearish JPY at risk of pain trade in H2
Significant up move in G-20 2-year sovereign bond yields except for Japan & China. US 2-year Treasury yield may eye the next immediate resistance at 5.20%. Higher cost of funding in H2 may deflate current optimism in US stocks. Japan’s finance officials have ratcheted up verbal intervention to talk down USD/JPY strength. Welcome to June month-end, Q2 2023-end, and H1 2023-end where three different periods of closing coincide at the same time which tends to lead to higher volatility in certain a
by Kelvin Wong
Oil prices recovering, gold falls below $1900 on strong US data
Oil continues to consolidate amid an uncertain economic outlook Oil prices are continuing to recover on Thursday after falling back toward their range lows on Wednesday. The gradual consolidation that we're seeing in crude doesn't appear to be nearing an end, with the price simply fluctuating between the range highs and lows over the last couple of months. The uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, and therefore the economy may well be behind that as investors have frequently been caught
by Craig Erlam
More resilient economic data increases the risk of a harder landing eventually
It's been a mixed trading session on Thursday as we get more evidence of economic resilience from the US which has left investors wondering whether they've once again underestimated how much monetary tightening is going to be necessary. This has been a common theme this year with markets repeatedly reflecting a far more optimistic outlook on interest rates despite the economic figures continuing to outperform. Investors are finally, reluctantly, coming around to the Fed's way of thinking althoug
by Craig Erlam
Bitcoin edges higher as Coinbase asks court to dismiss SEC lawsuit, Commodities pare earlier losses
Bitcoin continues to hold onto the $30,000 level as crypto traders await any decision with Bitcoin ETFs or with pending SEC lawsuits.  Today, Coinbase Chief Legal Officer said, “Coinbase just doesn’t list securities, period.... We have always looked to add assets that are appropriate for not only our customers, but consistent with our lawful authority."  Coinbase is hoping to get a dismissal of the SEC lawsuit that it failed to properly register its business.  An immediate decision might be toug
by Edward Moya
Euro unchanged ahead of German CPI
Lagarde signals ECB rate hike in July Germany releases inflation report later on Thursday Eurozone inflation report follows on Friday EUR/USD is unchanged on Thursday and is trading at 1.0912 in the European session. German CPI  Germany releases the June inflation report later today. Inflation in the eurozone's largest economy fell to 6.1% in May, down sharply from 7.2% in April.
by Kenneth Fisher
Commodities try to shrug off Powell's hawkish message about consecutive hikes
Commodities were tested after Fed Chair Powell triple downed on the Fed's dot plots.  The dollar initially caught a bid but that was short-lived.  At the end of the forum, traders really didn't learn anything new. Oil Before the EIA report, crude prices were wavering after a larger than expected drop in inventories, countered fears that several banks will be sending the global economy into recession. Yesterday, the API report showed crude stocks declined by 2.4m bpd. Energy traders however tu
by Edward Moya
Japanese yen falls below 144, Ueda and Powell talk policy
Ueda, Powell participating in panel at ECB Bank Forum Japanese yen slips below 144 US consumer confidence surges higher USD/JPY continues to push higher and is closing in on the 145 line. In the North American session, the yen is trading at 144.60, up 0.37%. Will Ueda provide any clues at ECB Bank Forum? It's a quiet day on the data calendar, with no important US releases.
by Kenneth Fisher
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