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Oil prices recovering, gold falls below $1900 on strong US data
Oil continues to consolidate amid an uncertain economic outlook Oil prices are continuing to recover on Thursday after falling back toward their range lows on Wednesday. The gradual consolidation that we're seeing in crude doesn't appear to be nearing an end, with the price simply fluctuating between the range highs and lows over the last couple of months. The uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, and therefore the economy may well be behind that as investors have frequently been caught
by Craig Erlam
More resilient economic data increases the risk of a harder landing eventually
It's been a mixed trading session on Thursday as we get more evidence of economic resilience from the US which has left investors wondering whether they've once again underestimated how much monetary tightening is going to be necessary. This has been a common theme this year with markets repeatedly reflecting a far more optimistic outlook on interest rates despite the economic figures continuing to outperform. Investors are finally, reluctantly, coming around to the Fed's way of thinking althoug
by Craig Erlam
Bitcoin edges higher as Coinbase asks court to dismiss SEC lawsuit, Commodities pare earlier losses
Bitcoin continues to hold onto the $30,000 level as crypto traders await any decision with Bitcoin ETFs or with pending SEC lawsuits.  Today, Coinbase Chief Legal Officer said, “Coinbase just doesn’t list securities, period.... We have always looked to add assets that are appropriate for not only our customers, but consistent with our lawful authority."  Coinbase is hoping to get a dismissal of the SEC lawsuit that it failed to properly register its business.  An immediate decision might be toug
by Edward Moya
Euro unchanged ahead of German CPI
Lagarde signals ECB rate hike in July Germany releases inflation report later on Thursday Eurozone inflation report follows on Friday EUR/USD is unchanged on Thursday and is trading at 1.0912 in the European session. German CPI  Germany releases the June inflation report later today. Inflation in the eurozone's largest economy fell to 6.1% in May, down sharply from 7.2% in April.
by Kenneth Fisher
Commodities try to shrug off Powell's hawkish message about consecutive hikes
Commodities were tested after Fed Chair Powell triple downed on the Fed's dot plots.  The dollar initially caught a bid but that was short-lived.  At the end of the forum, traders really didn't learn anything new. Oil Before the EIA report, crude prices were wavering after a larger than expected drop in inventories, countered fears that several banks will be sending the global economy into recession. Yesterday, the API report showed crude stocks declined by 2.4m bpd. Energy traders however tu
by Edward Moya
Japanese yen falls below 144, Ueda and Powell talk policy
Ueda, Powell participating in panel at ECB Bank Forum Japanese yen slips below 144 US consumer confidence surges higher USD/JPY continues to push higher and is closing in on the 145 line. In the North American session, the yen is trading at 144.60, up 0.37%. Will Ueda provide any clues at ECB Bank Forum? It's a quiet day on the data calendar, with no important US releases.
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD - Will Lagarde shake up the euro?
German consumer sentiment falls ECB's Lagarde will participate in a panel discussion on policy EUR/USD has edged lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0939, up 0.20%. German consumer confidence dips The German GfK Consumer Sentiment report found that consumer confidence is expected to fall in July to -25.4, down from a downwardly revised -24.4 in June.
by Kenneth Fisher
All eyes on the ECB forum as central bank heads join panel discussion
Equity markets are cautiously higher in Europe while the US is poised to open relatively flat as we await appearances from the heads of the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda are due to take part in a panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking around the opening bell in the US and their comments could set the tone for the rest of the day.
by Craig Erlam
Oil remains range-bound, gold under pressure
Oil prices hold in recent range Oil prices are edging higher again today after once again sliding back toward the range lows of the last few months. What's interesting is that, as we've seen previously, Brent crude failed to reach the previous low.
by Craig Erlam
AUD/JPY Technical: Minor downtrend remains intact
Recent two weeks of price actions in AUD/JPY have evolved into a minor downtrend. Key resistance on the minor downtrend stands at 96.00. Near-term supports are at 94.80 and 94.00. This is a follow-up on our earlier analysis, “AUD/JPY Technical: At the risk of a minor pull-back” dated 19 June 2023. Click here for a recap. The AUD/JPY has dropped as expected and almost hit the 94.80 support (printed a current intraday low of 95.15 in today’s Asia session). Today’s fall in the AUD/JPY has been r
by Kelvin Wong
Aussie slides to 3-week low as CPI falls sharply
Australian inflation declines more than expected AUD/USD slides in response to the inflation report US Consumer Confidence jumps The Australian dollar is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6636, down 0.75%.
by Kenneth Fisher
China’s booster from Premier Li Qiang may not last
China’s Premier Li Qiang’s morale booster speech during yesterday’s opening of the World Economic Forum’s 14th Annual Meeting of the New Champions ignited a bullish tone in China’s stock market. USD/CHH (offshore yuan) retreated from 7.2500 key intermediate resistance after PBoC’s indirect FX intervention yesterday. USD/CNH may strengthen further which may trigger another round of downside pressure in China-related equities. China’s Premier Li Qiang, also the Head of the State Council that dire
by Kelvin Wong
Technicals and Triggers – USD/JPY
USDJPY Yen sellers remain in control as traders become skeptical that Japan officials follow through on intervention threats. The yen has steadily weakened this quarter on US economic resilience and as the BOJ vowed to keep rates low for now along with a weak signal for a chance of future hike. Dollar Technicals The dollar index could be flashing an oversold signal and that could lead to further bets against the yen and not necessarily with European currencies that might see much more tighten
by Edward Moya
Stocks rebound on strong data and AI interest
Global bond yields rise; 10-year Treasury rises 4.1bps to 3.762% Consumer Confidence hits highest levels since January 2022 Dow eyes first gain in 7 trading days US stocks are bouncing back after some strong US economic data gave a boost to consumer discretionary stocks and as investors piled back into AI trades. The losing streak had to end, but that doesn’t mean the market will resume.
by Edward Moya
USD/CAD pares gains, Canadian inflation eases
Canada's inflation rate eases US Durable Goods Orders accelerate The Canadian dollar spiked and gained 50 points after Canada released the May inflation report but has pared these gains. USD/CAD is unchanged at 1.3158. Canadian inflation heads lower Canada's inflation rate fell sharply in May to 3.4%, down from 4.4% in April.
by Kenneth Fisher
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