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Technicals and Triggers - USD/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, AUD/USD

The first half of the year was rather choppy for the US dollar as massive bets of weakness were scaled down. Many on Wall Street expected the dollar to weaken as most of the other major currencies were about to deliver significantly more tightening. Regional growth rotations on an improving outlook from a roaring Chinese economy were also supposed to support the case for strengthening commodity demand. The dollar might be positioned for a little more short-term strength here as the odds for m

05-07-2023 17:01 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Rough Waters Ahead in H2

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to analyze the RBA rate decision, what the latest factory data says about the economy, and what is driving both oil and gold prices.

05-07-2023 15:04 GMT by Edward Moya

Risk aversion ahead of Fed minutes as PMIs offer good and bad signals

We're seeing some more risk aversion on Wednesday ahead of the release of the June FOMC minutes, with PMI data throughout the day painting a slightly more gloomy picture for the economy. Revisions in Europe were very modest, in the cases where we actually saw them, but they were to the downside and from already relatively depressed numbers. It's clear that they point to a deceleration in the all-important services sector but that isn't necessarily a bad thing if we ever want to see interest rate

05-07-2023 13:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil remains range-bound, gold ticks lower ahead of Fed

Can oil break above its two-month range after Saudi and Russian cuts? Oil prices are higher again today but still remain within their two-month range. The rally has been aided by the cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia this week but ultimately, another failure to break above the range will suggest traders have largely shrugged it off. The previous high in Brent two weeks ago came just above $77 and a failure to hit that will represent yet another lower peak over the last month or so and ma

05-07-2023 13:14 GMT by Craig Erlam

Aussie falls as China PMI weakens, FOMC minutes loom

AUD/USD slips after a four-day rally China's Services PMI eases in June Australia's retail sales jump 0.7% in May FOMC minutes will be released later on Wednesday The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday, after a four-day rally that saw the Aussie climb 100 pips. In the North American session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6663, down 0.42%. China's Services PMI eases but indicates expansion China is Australia's largest trading partner, making the Aussie sensitive to

05-07-2023 11:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro trading quietly around 1.09, FOMC minutes next

Eurozone and German Services PMIs weaken in June Markets looking for clues as Fed releases minutes on Wednesday EUR/USD is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, the euro is almost unchanged at 1.0882. German and eurozone Services PMIs ease The eurozone services sector continues to show growth, but the June numbers showed a deceleration.

05-07-2023 06:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY - Is Japan mulling an intervention?

Japanese Services PMI continues to expand Federal Reserve to release June meeting minutes on Wednesday USD/JPY continues to have a very quiet week and is trading at 144.36, down 0.07%, in the European session. Japanese Services PMI points to growth Japanese business activity continues to expand. The Services PMI, released on Wednesday, was revised lower to 54.0 in June from 54.2.

05-07-2023 05:06 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP Technical: Still evolving in a medium-term downtrend

The medium-term downtrend phase of EUR/GBP in place since the 3 February 2023 high of 0.8979 remains intact. Recent price actions have staged a decline from its 28 June 2023 high of 0.8658 and reintegrated below the 20-day moving average. Watch the key short-term resistance of 0.8610 to maintain a bearish tone Since its 3 February 2023 high of 0.8979, the EUR/GBP has continued to evolve in a medium-term downtrend phase as depicted by its price actions that oscillated within a descending channel

05-07-2023 03:58 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/USD eyes eurozone and German services PMIs

German and Eurozone PMIs expected to ease on Wednesday Fed releases minutes of June meeting on Wednesday US yield curve hits deepest inversion since 1981 EUR/USD is drifting downward on Tuesday. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0898, down 0.15%.

04-07-2023 13:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil rebounds, gold edges higher

Oil quickly loses momentum despite output curbs Oil prices are rising again today after giving back all of Monday's early gains and more as the session progressed. Buoyed by the news of Saudi Arabia extending its voluntary one million barrel output cut by a month to August, alongside Russia cutting exports by 500,000 in the same month, Brent crude rallied more than 1% and looked on course to increase its winning streak to four sessions but that's not how it turned out. Now prices are rising agai

04-07-2023 10:53 GMT by Craig Erlam

RBA delivers a hawkish pause, Zuckerberg takes on Musk

It's been a relatively quiet session with the US bank holiday naturally weighing on activity and those remaining having an eye on Friday's jobs report but the day hasn't been without interest as the RBA opted against hiking interest rates again.

04-07-2023 10:48 GMT by Craig Erlam

Swiss franc steady after inflation dips

Swiss inflation lower than expected US markets closed on Tuesday Fed minutes will be released on Wednesday The Swiss franc is showing little movement on Tuesday, trading at 0.8959 in the European session. US markets are closed for the July Fourth holiday and we can expect a quiet day for USD/CHF. Swiss inflation falls to 1.7% Switzerland's inflation rate dipped in June to 1.7% y/y, down from 2.2% in May and just below the consensus of 1.8%.

04-07-2023 07:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Manufacturing PMIs disappoint once more but services is what central banks are obsessed with

We may be seeing a bit of a trading lull at the start of the week with tomorrow's US bank holiday tempting many into an extended weekend. The economic calendar looks busy but with a large portion being PMI revisions, that doesn't necessarily equate to an abundance of trading activity. The revisions are often small and don't really move the needle in terms of expectations for the economy and, at this moment, interest rates. And then there's the fact that manufacturing being deep in contraction te

03-07-2023 11:58 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil rises on Saudi on Russian cuts, gold moves higher

Saudi and Russian cuts no game-changer for oil Oil prices were rising for a fourth session, with output curbs from Saudi Arabia and Russia initially giving fresh momentum to the recent recovery. The Saudis announced a one-month extension to their voluntary one million barrel cut, taking the reduction to the end of August which was swiftly followed by Russia announcing that it will cut exports by 500,000 barrels per day next month. That the market rallied only a little over 1% on the announcement

03-07-2023 11:56 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro calm as manufacturing PMIs point to contraction

Manufacturing PMIs point to contraction across the eurozone but euro remains steady US ISM Manufacturing PMI weakens US PCE Index slows but Fed still expected to hike in July EUR/USD is almost unchanged on Monday, trading at 1.0909. Eurozone manufacturing continues to sputter The eurozone manufacturing sector has been in poor shape for months and the downturn worsened worse in June. The eurozone PMI slowed to 43.4 in June, down from 44.8 and shy of the consensus of 43.6 points.

03-07-2023 11:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil gets a boost from surprise Russia output cut news but falls on weak ISM report

Saudi Arabia commits to extending voluntary cut of 1 million bpd Russia to reduce oil exports by 500K bpd US Manufacturing Activity drops the most in 3 years Oil The bottom is in place for oil after the Saudis and Russians play nice. The oil market got a boost after the Saudis extended their production cuts and Russia surprised everyone with an export cut announcement of 500,000 bpd. The Saudi extension should have been expected by everyone, but the Russian export cut news did surprise many e

03-07-2023 10:40 GMT by Edward Moya

Little Fireworks during today’s shortened session! USD, ISM, Tesla

US stock market closes at 1 p.m. and the bond market closes at 2 p.m.

03-07-2023 10:34 GMT by Edward Moya

Canadian dollar drifting, ISM Manufacturing PMI next

Canada's GDP surprises to the upside US PCE Price Index eases in June ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to contract The Canadian dollar is trading at 1.3259, up 0.07%. Canadian markets are closed for a holiday and I expect USD/CAD movement to be limited.

03-07-2023 08:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD pares losses ahead of RBA rate decision

Money markets split on RBA decision on Tuesday US PCE Price Index eases in May The Australian dollar is showing some movement right off the bat on Monday. AUD/USD fell as much as 70 pips in the Asian session but has recovered most of those losses.

03-07-2023 05:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

The great divergence between the real economy and global equities

Global manufacturing hubs; South Korea, Singapore & China continued to indicate a weaker external demand environment. Several key stock markets; US & Japan are on bullish footing, ignoring global recession risk. Higher US consumer confidence & more positive earnings guidance are required to maintain the bullish animal spirits. Higher cost of funding & a deeply inverted US Treasury yield curve are key hurdles for the bulls. The great divergence continues between the state of the real global econ

03-07-2023 03:39 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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