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RBA delivers a hawkish pause, Zuckerberg takes on Musk
It's been a relatively quiet session with the US bank holiday naturally weighing on activity and those remaining having an eye on Friday's jobs report but the day hasn't been without interest as the RBA opted against hiking interest rates again.
04-07-2023 10:48 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Swiss franc steady after inflation dips
Swiss inflation lower than expected US markets closed on Tuesday Fed minutes will be released on Wednesday The Swiss franc is showing little movement on Tuesday, trading at 0.8959 in the European session. US markets are closed for the July Fourth holiday and we can expect a quiet day for USD/CHF. Swiss inflation falls to 1.7% Switzerland's inflation rate dipped in June to 1.7% y/y, down from 2.2% in May and just below the consensus of 1.8%.
04-07-2023 07:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Manufacturing PMIs disappoint once more but services is what central banks are obsessed with
We may be seeing a bit of a trading lull at the start of the week with tomorrow's US bank holiday tempting many into an extended weekend. The economic calendar looks busy but with a large portion being PMI revisions, that doesn't necessarily equate to an abundance of trading activity. The revisions are often small and don't really move the needle in terms of expectations for the economy and, at this moment, interest rates. And then there's the fact that manufacturing being deep in contraction te
03-07-2023 11:58 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil rises on Saudi on Russian cuts, gold moves higher
Saudi and Russian cuts no game-changer for oil Oil prices were rising for a fourth session, with output curbs from Saudi Arabia and Russia initially giving fresh momentum to the recent recovery. The Saudis announced a one-month extension to their voluntary one million barrel cut, taking the reduction to the end of August which was swiftly followed by Russia announcing that it will cut exports by 500,000 barrels per day next month. That the market rallied only a little over 1% on the announcement
03-07-2023 11:56 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Euro calm as manufacturing PMIs point to contraction
Manufacturing PMIs point to contraction across the eurozone but euro remains steady US ISM Manufacturing PMI weakens US PCE Index slows but Fed still expected to hike in July EUR/USD is almost unchanged on Monday, trading at 1.0909. Eurozone manufacturing continues to sputter The eurozone manufacturing sector has been in poor shape for months and the downturn worsened worse in June. The eurozone PMI slowed to 43.4 in June, down from 44.8 and shy of the consensus of 43.6 points.
03-07-2023 11:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Oil gets a boost from surprise Russia output cut news but falls on weak ISM report
Saudi Arabia commits to extending voluntary cut of 1 million bpd Russia to reduce oil exports by 500K bpd US Manufacturing Activity drops the most in 3 years Oil The bottom is in place for oil after the Saudis and Russians play nice.  The oil market got a boost after the Saudis extended their production cuts and Russia surprised everyone with an export cut announcement of 500,000 bpd.  The Saudi extension should have been expected by everyone, but the Russian export cut news did surprise many e
03-07-2023 10:40 GMT by Edward Moya
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Canadian dollar drifting, ISM Manufacturing PMI next
Canada's GDP surprises to the upside US PCE Price Index eases in June ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to contract The Canadian dollar is trading at 1.3259, up 0.07%. Canadian markets are closed for a holiday and I expect USD/CAD movement to be limited.
03-07-2023 08:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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AUD/USD pares losses ahead of RBA rate decision
Money markets split on RBA decision on Tuesday US PCE Price Index eases in May The Australian dollar is showing some movement right off the bat on Monday. AUD/USD fell as much as 70 pips in the Asian session but has recovered most of those losses.
03-07-2023 05:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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The great divergence between the real economy and global equities
Global manufacturing hubs; South Korea, Singapore & China continued to indicate a weaker external demand environment. Several key stock markets; US & Japan are on bullish footing, ignoring global recession risk. Higher US consumer confidence & more positive earnings guidance are required to maintain the bullish animal spirits. Higher cost of funding & a deeply inverted US Treasury yield curve are key hurdles for the bulls. The great divergence continues between the state of the real global econ
03-07-2023 03:39 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Oil is ready to rally, Gold stabilizes, SEC sends Bitcoin towards $30K
Oil Oil’s fourth straight quarterly decline should be its last one. WTI crude is trying to stabilize above the $70 level as the oil market is destined for a deficit in the second half of the year.  The crude demand outlook has too much doom and gloom priced in as the US and China outlooks should remain upbeat.  China might be buying cheaper discounted Russian crude, but soon they will require more and those purchases could broaden as they slowly deliver more economic stimulus.
30-06-2023 10:26 GMT by Edward Moya
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Stocks rally as PCE report cools and on a weakening consumer, Apple eyes $3 Trillion Market Cap
Dollar weakens as inflation cools Apple reaches historic $3 trillion market cap Fed rate hike bets eye a peak at 5.410% US stocks are rallying after the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge showed the disinflation process remains intact and the consumer is showing signs of weakness. A hot inflation report and Fed swaps might have been convinced that a second-rate hike by year end was likely.  Treasury yields edged lower after the PCE report was a little dovish. US Data The core personal consumption
30-06-2023 10:15 GMT by Edward Moya
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EUR/USD climbs as key US inflation gauge ticks lower
US Core PCE Price Index ticks lower Eurozone headline CPI eases but core CPI rises German headline and core inflation accelerate EUR/USD is trading at 1.0898 in the North American session, up 0.32%. Eurozone inflation falls but core rate rises Inflation in the eurozone continues to fall. Eurozone CPI is expected to fall to 5.5% in June, down from 6.1% in May and a notch below the consensus of 5.6%.
30-06-2023 09:00 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Week Ahead - FOMC minutes and US jobs report eyed, RBA may hike again
It will be an eventful week, the ISM manufacturing report, the fourth of July Holiday, the Fed Minutes, and the nonfarm payroll report.  Wall Street is starting to believe in those Fed dot plots and this week’s economic data points may provide more evidence for the hawks.  The ISM manufacturing report is expected to show activity is stabilizing.  The Fed minutes will emphasize the fear that core inflation is proving to be stickier.
30-06-2023 08:51 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Eurozone inflation data brings some relief for the ECB but tightening cycle likely not over
European stocks are ending the week on a high, buoyed by another encouraging inflation report that will soon support the end of the ECBs tightening cycle. Not only did the headline HICP rate fall further than expected, but the slight rebound at the core level - driven largely by unfavourable base effects, largely attributed to German transport subsidies last year - was lower than expected.
30-06-2023 08:43 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil edges higher, gold struggling on US rate concerns
Oil remains range bound but ending the week on a positive Oil prices are edging higher again today but given how they've traded over the last couple of months I'm struggling to read too much into it. The inventory data on Wednesday was bullish on the face of it and the eurozone inflation data today won't do it any harm either, but uninspiring Chinese PMIs overnight don't fill me with confidence. Broadly speaking, it's range-bound as it has been since early May, and showing little signs of breaki
30-06-2023 08:41 GMT by Craig Erlam
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USD/CAD flat ahead of Canadian GDP
Canada release GDP on Friday US publishes Core PCE Price Index, UoM Consumer Sentiment on Friday The Canadian dollar is flat on Friday, trading at 1.3258 in the European session. Will Canada's GDP shake up the Canadian dollar? Canada releases GDP for May later on Friday. The consensus stands at 0.2% m/m, which translates into 2.4% annualized, a respectable gain.
30-06-2023 06:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Japanese yen flirts with 145, Core CPI ticks upwards
Japanese yen briefly falls below 145 line Tokyo Core CPI rises to 3.2% US GDP revised higher,  unemployment claims slide USD/JPY is showing limited movement, trading at 144.62 in the European session. The yen briefly fell below the symbolic 145 line earlier today. Tokyo Core CPI inches higher Tokyo Core CPI, a key inflation gauge, moved slightly higher in June.
30-06-2023 05:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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