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Oil prices climb, gold eyes nonfarm payrolls
Oil continues higher despite setbacks this week Could we finally be about to see a breakout in oil prices after two months of consolidation? The rally over the last week or so from the range lows has been quite strong and backed by momentum - as well as fresh cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia - and despite being pushed back from the recent highs over the last couple of days, it's continued to drive higher in a way that could see the upper boundary buckle. Yesterday's ADP number appeared to wipe
07-07-2023 07:34 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Investors risk averse ahead of the US jobs report after worrying ADP Number
It's been a shocking week for European equity markets, on course to shed almost 5% and it could get worse if the US jobs report reflects what we saw yesterday from ADP. You wouldn't always guess it when looking at the performance of stocks but there is mounting anxiety about the resilience of the economy and what that will mean for interest rates going into the end of this year and 2024. Investors always seem to find a way to look on the bright side which may explain the disconnect between econo
07-07-2023 07:28 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Euro steady ahead of nonfarm payrolls, Lagarde speech
EUR/USD is unchanged in the European session, trading at 1.0893. Nonfarm payrolls expected to decline All eyes are on Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to decline for June. However, this week's employment numbers have been mixed, and it will be interesting to see which direction the nonfarm payrolls release takes. The ADP employment report, which precedes the nonfarm payrolls release by a day or two, tends to get glossed over, as it is not considered a reliable precursor to nonfarm
07-07-2023 06:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Canadian dollar on a roll ahead of US, Canada job reports
US nonfarm payrolls expected to drop, but massive ADP jobs report is making investors nervous Canada's labour market is expected to rebound with a 20,000 gain The Canadian dollar is drifting in the European session, trading at 1.3378. It has been a good week for the Canadian currency, which is up about 1% against its US cousin. We can expect some significant movement from USD/CAD in the North American session, as both Canada and the US release the June employment reports. Will nonfarm payroll
07-07-2023 04:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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No summer lull for global equities
Bullish breakout seen in US Treasury 10-year yield above 3.90%, next resistance at 4.46%. Long-duration assets (fixed income & growth stocks) sold off and underperformed in the past two days. Record low level of implied correlation among S&P 500 stocks may lead to a spike in VIX. Asian stocks underperformed reinforced by a weak yuan despite subtle interventions by PBoC. Déjà vu, it’s all about government bond yields again In the past two days, we have seen several significant movements in the g
07-07-2023 02:30 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/CAD rises on strong US jobs and services data
ADP employment surprises with a huge gain of 497,000 On Friday, US releases nonfarm payrolls and Canada publishes the employment report Nonfarm payrolls are expected to fall to 225,000, Canada projected to add 20,000 jobs The Canadian dollar is in negative territory on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3360, down 0.58%.
06-07-2023 11:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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ADP report is another huge blow to Fed pause hopes, jobless claims in line
Federal Reserve policymakers may well be dreading tomorrow's jobs report now after today's ADP number once again obliterated estimates, coming in more than double the consensus forecast. That's almost become the norm on payrolls day but FOMC policymakers, along with investors, may have been hoping the tide would now turn after such as intense tightening cycle over the last 18 months. But if the ADP report is anything to go by, we're headed for another red-hot jobs report. If a rate hike this mon
06-07-2023 10:32 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil prices in retreat, gold vulnerable after ADP report
Despite positive momentum, oil falls short once more Oil prices are retreating in risk-averse trade today. The ADP report has clearly had a negative impact given it likely means we're facing another red-hot jobs report tomorrow and the prospect of higher rates for longer. It also came at an opportune time, with the price flirting with the peak from two weeks ago, only to turn south having fallen just shy of surpassing it.
06-07-2023 10:27 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Fed hawks in control after a hot ADP report and impressive ISM services reading
ADP shows 497,000 jobs created in June, biggest gains in over a year ISM Services Index makes 4-month high ISM Prices paid declined from 56.2 to 54.1, lowest since March 2020 US stocks extend losses after a hot ADP report and impressive ISM services report raised the odds the Fed might have to do deliver more rate hikes beyond the July FOMC meeting. The dollar pared losses as Fed rate hike odds rose on expectations the NFP report will deliver its 15th straight beat.
06-07-2023 10:16 GMT by Edward Moya
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Aussie pares gains as US ADP jobs report sparkles
Australia posts strong trade surplus US ADP employment surprises with massive gain US unemployment claims and ISM Services PMI will be released later on Thursday Thursday has been a busy day for AUD/USD. The Australian dollar rose after a strong Australian trade balance report but has reversed directions following a sparking US ADP employment release.
06-07-2023 09:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY gains ground, Fed minutes show policy divisions
FOMC minutes highlight policy divisions USD/JPY falls sharply Japan releases Household Spending and Average Cash Earnings on Friday The Japanese yen is showing strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.82, down 0.57%. Fed minutes point to disagreement over rate path The Federal Reserve has been aggressively tightening rates in order to curb inflation but took a pause in June after ten consecutive hikes.
06-07-2023 07:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Soft open for US stocks ahead of key labor/service data
China President Xi tells military to firmly safeguard sovereignty and to strengthen military drills Tesla and China's top car manufacturers pledge to avoid 'abnormal pricing' Fed rate hike expectations for the July 26th meeting stand at 85.3%, up from 81.1% at the end of last week. Us stocks are poised for a soft open as global recession fears sink risk appetite ahead of a few key labor and service economic reports.  The Fed Minutes did no favors for sentiment as officials favor a July rate inc
06-07-2023 07:03 GMT by Edward Moya
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Nikkei 225 Technical: Minor corrective decline in progress
Price actions have broken below the 20-day moving average and minor ascending channel support. Potential short-term corrective decline within a medium-term uptrend in place since the 15 March 2023 low. 33,200 is key short-term resistance to watch. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nikkei 225 Technical: Overstretched rally” published on 15 June 2023. Click here for a recap. Fig 1:  Japan 225 short-term & medium-term trends as of 6 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlar
06-07-2023 03:02 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Fed Minutes send bond yields higher
The Fed minutes showed that policymakers were divided and that the hawks will still want to deliver more tightening.  Fed Officials are concerned a tight labor market will make inflation tight throughout the rest of the year.  If inflation remains persistent, that could be a gamechanger for inflation expectations.  Wall Street was getting comfortable with higher for a little bit longer, but they are not ready to price in more than a half-point in rate hikes.  In order to conquer inflation the Fe
05-07-2023 17:39 GMT by Edward Moya
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Technicals and Triggers - USD/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, AUD/USD
The first half of the year was rather choppy for the US dollar as massive bets of weakness were scaled down.  Many on Wall Street expected the dollar to weaken as most of the other major currencies were about to deliver significantly more tightening.  Regional growth rotations on an improving outlook from a roaring Chinese economy were also supposed to support the case for strengthening commodity demand. The dollar might be positioned for a little more short-term strength here as the odds for m
05-07-2023 17:01 GMT by Edward Moya
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