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USD/CAD rises on strong US jobs and services data

ADP employment surprises with a huge gain of 497,000 On Friday, US releases nonfarm payrolls and Canada publishes the employment report Nonfarm payrolls are expected to fall to 225,000, Canada projected to add 20,000 jobs The Canadian dollar is in negative territory on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3360, down 0.58%.

06-07-2023 11:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

ADP report is another huge blow to Fed pause hopes, jobless claims in line

Federal Reserve policymakers may well be dreading tomorrow's jobs report now after today's ADP number once again obliterated estimates, coming in more than double the consensus forecast. That's almost become the norm on payrolls day but FOMC policymakers, along with investors, may have been hoping the tide would now turn after such as intense tightening cycle over the last 18 months. But if the ADP report is anything to go by, we're headed for another red-hot jobs report. If a rate hike this mon

06-07-2023 10:32 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil prices in retreat, gold vulnerable after ADP report

Despite positive momentum, oil falls short once more Oil prices are retreating in risk-averse trade today. The ADP report has clearly had a negative impact given it likely means we're facing another red-hot jobs report tomorrow and the prospect of higher rates for longer. It also came at an opportune time, with the price flirting with the peak from two weeks ago, only to turn south having fallen just shy of surpassing it.

06-07-2023 10:27 GMT by Craig Erlam

Fed hawks in control after a hot ADP report and impressive ISM services reading

ADP shows 497,000 jobs created in June, biggest gains in over a year ISM Services Index makes 4-month high ISM Prices paid declined from 56.2 to 54.1, lowest since March 2020 US stocks extend losses after a hot ADP report and impressive ISM services report raised the odds the Fed might have to do deliver more rate hikes beyond the July FOMC meeting. The dollar pared losses as Fed rate hike odds rose on expectations the NFP report will deliver its 15th straight beat.

06-07-2023 10:16 GMT by Edward Moya

Aussie pares gains as US ADP jobs report sparkles

Australia posts strong trade surplus US ADP employment surprises with massive gain US unemployment claims and ISM Services PMI will be released later on Thursday Thursday has been a busy day for AUD/USD. The Australian dollar rose after a strong Australian trade balance report but has reversed directions following a sparking US ADP employment release.

06-07-2023 09:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil higher on falling stockpiles and Gold catches a safe-haven bid, Bitcoin awaits ETF ruling

EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report expected at 11am EST. **Note API reported 4.4million draw last night. Fed's rate path remains key for gold traders Bitcoin momentum capped on rising expectations BlackRock will get a US Bitcoin ETF approved Oil Crude prices got a boost after the API report showed stockpiles declined by 4.4 million barrels per day.

06-07-2023 07:37 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY gains ground, Fed minutes show policy divisions

FOMC minutes highlight policy divisions USD/JPY falls sharply Japan releases Household Spending and Average Cash Earnings on Friday The Japanese yen is showing strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.82, down 0.57%. Fed minutes point to disagreement over rate path The Federal Reserve has been aggressively tightening rates in order to curb inflation but took a pause in June after ten consecutive hikes.

06-07-2023 07:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Soft open for US stocks ahead of key labor/service data

China President Xi tells military to firmly safeguard sovereignty and to strengthen military drills Tesla and China's top car manufacturers pledge to avoid 'abnormal pricing' Fed rate hike expectations for the July 26th meeting stand at 85.3%, up from 81.1% at the end of last week. Us stocks are poised for a soft open as global recession fears sink risk appetite ahead of a few key labor and service economic reports. The Fed Minutes did no favors for sentiment as officials favor a July rate inc

06-07-2023 07:03 GMT by Edward Moya

Nikkei 225 Technical: Minor corrective decline in progress

Price actions have broken below the 20-day moving average and minor ascending channel support. Potential short-term corrective decline within a medium-term uptrend in place since the 15 March 2023 low. 33,200 is key short-term resistance to watch. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nikkei 225 Technical: Overstretched rally” published on 15 June 2023. Click here for a recap. Fig 1: Japan 225 short-term & medium-term trends as of 6 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlar

06-07-2023 03:02 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Fed Minutes send bond yields higher

The Fed minutes showed that policymakers were divided and that the hawks will still want to deliver more tightening. Fed Officials are concerned a tight labor market will make inflation tight throughout the rest of the year. If inflation remains persistent, that could be a gamechanger for inflation expectations. Wall Street was getting comfortable with higher for a little bit longer, but they are not ready to price in more than a half-point in rate hikes. In order to conquer inflation the Fe

05-07-2023 17:39 GMT by Edward Moya

Technicals and Triggers - USD/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, AUD/USD

The first half of the year was rather choppy for the US dollar as massive bets of weakness were scaled down. Many on Wall Street expected the dollar to weaken as most of the other major currencies were about to deliver significantly more tightening. Regional growth rotations on an improving outlook from a roaring Chinese economy were also supposed to support the case for strengthening commodity demand. The dollar might be positioned for a little more short-term strength here as the odds for m

05-07-2023 17:01 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Rough Waters Ahead in H2

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to analyze the RBA rate decision, what the latest factory data says about the economy, and what is driving both oil and gold prices.

05-07-2023 15:04 GMT by Edward Moya

Risk aversion ahead of Fed minutes as PMIs offer good and bad signals

We're seeing some more risk aversion on Wednesday ahead of the release of the June FOMC minutes, with PMI data throughout the day painting a slightly more gloomy picture for the economy. Revisions in Europe were very modest, in the cases where we actually saw them, but they were to the downside and from already relatively depressed numbers. It's clear that they point to a deceleration in the all-important services sector but that isn't necessarily a bad thing if we ever want to see interest rate

05-07-2023 13:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil remains range-bound, gold ticks lower ahead of Fed

Can oil break above its two-month range after Saudi and Russian cuts? Oil prices are higher again today but still remain within their two-month range. The rally has been aided by the cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia this week but ultimately, another failure to break above the range will suggest traders have largely shrugged it off. The previous high in Brent two weeks ago came just above $77 and a failure to hit that will represent yet another lower peak over the last month or so and ma

05-07-2023 13:14 GMT by Craig Erlam

Aussie falls as China PMI weakens, FOMC minutes loom

AUD/USD slips after a four-day rally China's Services PMI eases in June Australia's retail sales jump 0.7% in May FOMC minutes will be released later on Wednesday The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday, after a four-day rally that saw the Aussie climb 100 pips. In the North American session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6663, down 0.42%. China's Services PMI eases but indicates expansion China is Australia's largest trading partner, making the Aussie sensitive to

05-07-2023 11:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro trading quietly around 1.09, FOMC minutes next

Eurozone and German Services PMIs weaken in June Markets looking for clues as Fed releases minutes on Wednesday EUR/USD is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, the euro is almost unchanged at 1.0882. German and eurozone Services PMIs ease The eurozone services sector continues to show growth, but the June numbers showed a deceleration.

05-07-2023 06:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY - Is Japan mulling an intervention?

Japanese Services PMI continues to expand Federal Reserve to release June meeting minutes on Wednesday USD/JPY continues to have a very quiet week and is trading at 144.36, down 0.07%, in the European session. Japanese Services PMI points to growth Japanese business activity continues to expand. The Services PMI, released on Wednesday, was revised lower to 54.0 in June from 54.2.

05-07-2023 05:06 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP Technical: Still evolving in a medium-term downtrend

The medium-term downtrend phase of EUR/GBP in place since the 3 February 2023 high of 0.8979 remains intact. Recent price actions have staged a decline from its 28 June 2023 high of 0.8658 and reintegrated below the 20-day moving average. Watch the key short-term resistance of 0.8610 to maintain a bearish tone Since its 3 February 2023 high of 0.8979, the EUR/GBP has continued to evolve in a medium-term downtrend phase as depicted by its price actions that oscillated within a descending channel

05-07-2023 03:58 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/USD eyes eurozone and German services PMIs

German and Eurozone PMIs expected to ease on Wednesday Fed releases minutes of June meeting on Wednesday US yield curve hits deepest inversion since 1981 EUR/USD is drifting downward on Tuesday. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0898, down 0.15%.

04-07-2023 13:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil rebounds, gold edges higher

Oil quickly loses momentum despite output curbs Oil prices are rising again today after giving back all of Monday's early gains and more as the session progressed. Buoyed by the news of Saudi Arabia extending its voluntary one million barrel output cut by a month to August, alongside Russia cutting exports by 500,000 in the same month, Brent crude rallied more than 1% and looked on course to increase its winning streak to four sessions but that's not how it turned out. Now prices are rising agai

04-07-2023 10:53 GMT by Craig Erlam

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