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US June CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 4.0% prior; Core CPI (ex food and energy)M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.0%e v 5.3% prior Microsoft gets go-ahead to buy Activision; prompts excitement for further deal making. Impressive demand for 3-year note auction US stocks rose as bond yields remained capped as Wall Street looks like it is ready to move beyond a pivotal inflation report that should suggest interest rates will stay higher for longer. Headline CPI might fall to 2.9% and co

11-07-2023 16:10 GMT by Edward Moya

Australian dollar loses ground despite solid confidence indicators

Australia's consumers and business confidence improve US inflation expected to fall to 3.1% The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6656 in the North American session, down 0.28%. Consumer and business confidence rise Australia released business and confidence data on Tuesday, with both showing improvement.

11-07-2023 10:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Technicals and Triggers – USD/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/MXN

FX volatility might be returning given Wall Street is seeing some exhaustion with several key currency trades. The end of tightening for the advance economies keeps getting delayed and sooner than later it will deliver a major blow to growth. FX volatility should pick up as diverging policies from the Fed, BOE, and PBOC could trigger some significant moves in H2. USD/JPY

11-07-2023 10:34 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold - Edging higher ahead of the US inflation report

Gold appears to have found some support again in recent days after rebounding twice around $1,900. The US jobs report was one possible risk event that could have triggered a big move in gold, one way or another, and the other is due tomorrow in the shape of the US inflation report. It seems gold bulls are feeling a little more confident, although $1,940 still poses a test having been a notable area of support in late May and the first half of June. Gold Source - OANDA on Trading View We could j

11-07-2023 10:08 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Oil steadies after hitting one-month high

Brent hits one-month high Saudi and Russian cuts supporting recent moves Major barriers of resistance above Oil prices are a little flat today after paring earlier gains. Brent hit a one-month high on Monday after breaking above the 21 June peak, bringing an end to a series of lower highs that had contributed to the consolidation we've seen in recent months. While it is still trading around the range highs since early May, the break of the recent high could be viewed as a bullish step that coul

11-07-2023 09:50 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - BoE has cause For optimism in UK jobs report

UK unemployment rises to 4% in the three months to May, up from 3.8% Average earnings hit 7.3% (excluding bonus) and 6.9% (including bonus) Markets expect BoE to raise rates another 1.25% UK jobs data this morning was a mixed bag on the face of it but a deeper dive into the numbers may give the Bank of England more cause for optimism than pessimism. The earnings component of the report, while continuing to partly shield households from soaring inflation, is the part the MPC will be most co

11-07-2023 09:28 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD dips ahead of RBNZ rate decision

New Zealand central bank expected to pause after 12 consecutive hikes New Zealand Manufacturing PMI expected to show manufacturing is stalled The New Zealand dollar is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6189, down 0.35%. RBNZ expected to take a pause The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be in the spotlight on Wednesday.

11-07-2023 07:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Resilient gold is supported by geopolitical risk

Historical tightly inverse correlation between gold (XAU/USD) and US Treasury 10-year real yield (TIPS) has started to wane in the past four weeks. An uptick in geopolitical risk may be the factor that is supporting a resilient movement in gold despite higher 10-year TIPS. Watch the US$1,940 key intermediate resistance on gold (XAU/USD) for a potential bullish breakout. In the past week, a higher momentum movement is seen in longer-term sovereign yields over their shorter-term durations where t

11-07-2023 06:01 GMT by Kelvin Wong

British pound extends rally after mixed employment report

UK employment falls but wage growth remains high BoE Governor Bailey says inflation will fall but more rate hikes needed The British pound has edged upward on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2898, up 0.28%.

11-07-2023 05:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY Technical: At risk of a minor bounce before bearish tone resumes

Medium-term uptrend of USD/JPY in place since 16 January 2023 at risk of breakdown. Steep decline from last Thursday, 6 July 2023 has reached oversold condition. Minor bounce cannot be ruled out at this juncture above 140.60 support. Watch the 142.50/142.80 intermediate resistance zone. This is a follow-up on our prior analysis “USD/JPY surged to a 7-month high, but fundamentals diverge” published on 23 June 2023. We have highlighted the risks of the overextended rally exhibited in the USD/JPY

10-07-2023 22:02 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil weakens on weaker global growth outlook, Gold and Bitcoin unfazed

Commodities get little support from a weaker dollar Demand destruction likely to force Saudis to extend cuts Bitcoin holds onto the $30,000 level Oil Crude prices are weakening as concerns mount that the global growth outlook is getting uglier by the day. China is rushing to deliver more support to their real estate crisis, while the US starts to grow more nervous about a potential recession. Oil will struggle this week if inflation readings in the US support the hawkish case for a couple mor

10-07-2023 13:42 GMT by Edward Moya

Markets calm ahead of US CPI, China inflation flatlines amid weaker demand

It's been a relatively slow start to the week but there's still plenty to look forward to, most notably the US inflation data on Wednesday. Friday's jobs report did nothing to level the debate on whether to pause at the next Fed meeting in two weeks. In fact, it may have even cemented another 25 basis point hike despite the NFP number falling short of expectations and, to the relief of many, well short of the ADP release. Wage growth remains a concern and on that front, the report was hot.

10-07-2023 12:18 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil breaks higher, gold choppy after nonfarm payrolls

Oil finally breaks higher and with decent momentum Another strong showing on Friday saw oil prices finally make a significant move higher, with Brent breaking above $77 and ending the series of lower highs in price. There still remain obstacles above but this could be a very significant breakout in the price after such a long period of consolidation. What's more there doesn't appear to be any shortage of momentum behind the move; in fact, it has seemingly increased which could be another bullish

10-07-2023 12:15 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD eyes UK employment report

UK jobs report expected to show strong employment and wage growth US nonfarm payrolls declined in June The British pound has drifted lower on Monday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2827 in the European session, down 0.09%. UK employment data expected to remain strong The UK labour market remains resilient despite a cooling economy and high interest rates.

10-07-2023 11:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Wall Street awaits Wednesday's CPI data and the start of earnings season

Wednesday's inflation report expected to show CPI m/m: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; y/y: 3.1%e v 4.0% prior; Core CPI m/m: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Core CPI y/y: :5.0%e v 5.3% prior Fed's Barr on banks: These changes would increase capital requirements overall Fed Mester noted that the funds rate will need to move up somewhat further from its current level and then hold there for a while US stocks are wavering ahead of both a key inflation report that should core CPI remain sticky and what should be a rough

10-07-2023 11:07 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD slips as NFP falls, Canada adds jobs

US nonfarm payrolls decline Canada adds 60,000 jobs Bank of Canada expected to raise rates on Wednesday The Canadian dollar is trading quietly at the start of the week. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3286, up 0.07%.

10-07-2023 09:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar slips after soft Chinese inflation data

AUD/USD slides 1% China's CPI and PPI slow in June The Australian dollar continues to show sharp volatility. AUD/USD is down 0.80% on Monday, trading at 0.6637.

10-07-2023 07:12 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

China equities bulls are still on the waiting list

Deflationary spiral risk has negated confidence in China equities. US dollar has continued to hold steady against the yuan despite a broad-based sell-off against other major currencies ex-post US non-farm payrolls. The key intermediate support to watch on the USD/CNH will be at 7.2160. Weak China inflation data offset positive China Big Tech news flow The dreaded fear of a deflationary spiral in China has reached “code red” where the latest consumer inflation rate for June has flattened to 0% y

10-07-2023 02:34 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential minor bearish Double Top

The bulls of the Nasdaq 100 have staged another retreat at the key 15,270 resistance. Medium-term upside momentum has started to wane as indicated by the daily RSI. Minor bearish “Double Top” sighted with its neckline support at 14,700. This is a follow-up on our prior analysis “Nasdaq 100 Technical: “Risk of a medium-term blow-off top” published on 27 June 2023. So far, its price actions have failed to have a daily close above the 15,270 key medium-term pivotal resistance after an intraday bre

09-07-2023 22:55 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Podcast - NFP relief, US inflation, Zuckerberg takes on Musk

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to go over the US jobs report, inflation data next week and the launch of Threads, Meta's alternative to Twitter.

07-07-2023 11:22 GMT by Craig Erlam

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