All Articles

Dow - A stellar week in response to very promising US inflation data

Has the US turned a corner on inflation? Earnings may determine whether rally can be sustained Dow testing major resistance level It's shaping up to be quite a relaxed end to the week, one in which we've seen stellar gains on the back of some very encouraging inflation data from the US. While there have been occasions when stock markets have performed well this year despite not appearing to reflect the fundamental reality of rapid economy-threatening rate hikes, the inability to really turn a c

14-07-2023 07:19 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY Technical: Torpedoed down but holding at 200-day moving average

USD/JPY has shed -5.4% from its 30 June 2023 high of 145.07, on sight to record its worst weekly loss since 7 November 2022. Today’s intraday sell-off has managed to hold at the 200-day moving average acting as support at 137.65. Short-term momentum has turned positive which increases the odds of a corrective rebound. This is a follow-up on our prior analysis “USD/JPY Technical: “At risk of a minor bounce before bearish tone resumes” published earlier this week on 11 July 2023. The USD/JPY has

14-07-2023 04:54 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Too early to celebrate disinflation

Current up moves in long-duration equities and fixed income came at the expense of a weaker US dollar. A persistent weak US dollar may lead to an upside revival in commodities prices. Inflationary expectations may creep up again due to higher oil/commodities prices. Disinflationary narrative seems premature and may be mispriced. Market participants have taken a “disinflation ecstasy pill”, bidding up long-duration equities and fixed income in the past two sessions after the latest June US CPI d

14-07-2023 02:50 GMT by Kelvin Wong

MPCE-0065-YT-Thumbnail-Dark–1280x720.png

Video - Big level broken in GBP/USD after US and UK data

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses GBPUSD in the aftermath of some major US and UK economic releases.

13-07-2023 18:54 GMT by Craig Erlam

Gold - Holding gains but a few big tests lie above

Stalling at $1,960 Key fib levels remain a big test Gold is also trading marginally higher today and struggling around a notable resistance level, $1,960. It broke through $1,940 yesterday on the back of the inflation numbers and has now entered retracement territory where a few key levels will be put to the test. From a technical standpoint, those are the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels - May highs to June lows - which happen to fall around $1,960, $1,980, and $2,000, respec

13-07-2023 12:49 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Is the oil rally starting to stall around $80?

US inflation data takes Brent above $80 Chinese trade data disappoints again Momentum appearing to wane Oil prices are a little higher again in early trade, seemingly still buoyed by yesterday's US inflation report, and are continuing to push for a convincing break above $80 in Brent crude. It is trading a little above $80 this morning and did at times yesterday, but rather than generating fresh momentum, it seems to instead be running into some difficulty. That would be understandable.

13-07-2023 12:32 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - UK economy continues to show remarkable resilience

UK economy posts a small contraction of -0.1% in May Higher rates will damage the economy going forward Sterling rally continues breaking above 1.30 against the dollar The UK economy posted only a small contraction in May which was much better than forecast as the country continues to show strong resilience in the face of significant pressures. That resilience has helped to sustain inflation at much higher levels than the Bank of England was hoping for which has in turn led to more rate hikes a

13-07-2023 11:44 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD remains red hot and is trading at 3-week high

Australian dollar continues to power higher RBA inflation expectations remain at 5.2% US inflation falls to 3% The Australian dollar continues to sizzle and has climbed 1.04% on Thursday, after rising 1.56% a day earlier. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6857, close to a 3-week high. Australian inflation expectations remain high Inflation remains the Reserve Bank of Australia's number one priority and Thursday's inflation expectations release vindicated the RBA's concern that

13-07-2023 08:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Sterling climbs as UK GDP beats estimate

UK GDP contracts in May but beats estimate British pound hits 15-month high against the US dollar The British pound continues to rally against the US dollar. GBP/USD has risen to 1.3068, up 0.62%.

13-07-2023 06:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

China stock market’s momentum-driven rally; watch out for China’s Big Tech

China Big Tech is leading the current momentum-driven rally in China stock market. Supported by a weaker USD/CNH that broke below key near-term support of 7.2160. Further hints from China’s top policymakers that the prior 3-year of stringent regulatory crackdowns on China’s leading technology companies have ended. Current momentum-driven rally of China Big Tech may still see a bumpy ride due to a weak external demand environment. Prior to yesterday’s release of the key US consumer inflation da

13-07-2023 03:32 GMT by Kelvin Wong

MPCE-0064-Podcast-Thumbnail-Purple–1280x720.png

Podcast - US inflation treat, RBNZ pause, BoC hikes again

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the latest US inflation data and the interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank of Canada.

13-07-2023 00:56 GMT by Craig Erlam

Gold - Boosted by US inflation data but recovery still early

Recent range highs broken after CPI release Lower inflation could increase gold's appeal One more rate hike expected from the Fed The US inflation data gave gold just the boost it needed to break back above $1,940 after failing to pierce that level in recent days. The yellow metal has been range-bound in recent weeks between $1,900 and $1,940 and today's report did what the jobs data failed to do; it provided the catalyst for a breakout. Gold Daily Source - OANDA on Trading View There remains

12-07-2023 18:06 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Trying to break $80 after the US inflation report

The prospect of a soft landing lifts oil prices Rally builds on efforts by Russia and Saudi Arabia to boost prices A break of $80 could be another big step Oil prices have been understandably lifted by the US inflation release today as it could be seen to increase the possibility of a soft landing. Brent was already trending higher though and is now at its highest point since April, having already broken out of the range it traded within for the last couple of months. The next level for Brent

12-07-2023 17:00 GMT by Craig Erlam

Nasdaq - As good a US inflation report as we could have realistically hoped for

US inflation falls faster than expected; CPI 3% (YoY), Core CPI 4.8% (YoY) July Fed hike still highly likely despite inflation drop Nasdaq hits 18-month high after the data Financial markets are buzzing at the US open on Wednesday, with investors buoyed by a very promising inflation report from the US. The report not only beat at the headline level but core actually slipped even further, dropping to 4.8% for the first time since October 2021. The monthly data was also extremely encouraging, wit

12-07-2023 13:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD slips after BoC rate hike

Bank of Canada raises rates by 0.25% US inflation falls to 3.0%, lower than expected The Canadian dollar has posted strong gains in Wednesday's North American session. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3146, down 0.63%.

12-07-2023 10:44 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD - RBA's Lowe may be on way out, US inflation looms

RBA Governor Lowe announces major changes at RBA Board US inflation expected to decline The Australian dollar was sharply higher on Wednesday but could not consolidate these gains. AUD/USD is unchanged in Europe, trading at 0.6691. Will RBA Governor be replaced? Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe spoke on Wednesday and announced key changes to the RBA Board.

12-07-2023 07:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

XAU/USD - Could US CPI data trigger a major breakout in gold?

Traders appear bullish ahead of CPI release A number of resistance levels above Could a stronger inflation report push gold below $1,900? Gold is edging higher again today but there is clearly an element of caution in the move. Perhaps traders are hopeful of a favorable CPI figure from the US but they're clearly not that confident with the price remaining below $1,940 where it has repeatedly run into resistance. Gold Daily Source - OANDA on Trading View A break above here today could be a bull

12-07-2023 07:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD - RBNZ may be done with its tightening cycle after pause

RBNZ leaves rates unchanged after near-two year hiking cycle Inflation is seen returning to target next year NZD performing better but potentially running on fumes The RBNZ opted to pause its tightening cycle earlier today after a very aggressive tightening cycle over the last couple of years. After increasing the cash rate to 5.5%, there are signs that the economy is slowing which will bring inflation down.

12-07-2023 06:51 GMT by Craig Erlam

FTSE 100 - Tentatively higher with an eye on US inflation data

Attention remains on US inflation data today Only a much lower core CPI reading could tempt the Fed to reconsider hiking in two weeks UK100 rebounds but caution may remain unless key level is overcome

12-07-2023 06:25 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD Technical: Bulls rejected at 20 and 200-day moving averages ahead of US CPI

Short-term momentum is likely to have turned negative as seen in the hourly RSI. Key short-term resistance stands at 0.6720. Intermediate supports to watch will be at 0.6630 and 0.6600/6580. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD Technical: Positive momentum ahead of RBA” published on 4 July 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of the AUD/USD have staged the expected push-up and met the first resistance of 0.6720 as it printed a current intraday high of 0.6742 in

12-07-2023 05:05 GMT by Kelvin Wong

All news & analysis