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Podcast - US inflation treat, RBNZ pause, BoC hikes again

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the latest US inflation data and the interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank of Canada.

13-07-2023 00:56 GMT by Craig Erlam

Gold - Boosted by US inflation data but recovery still early

Recent range highs broken after CPI release Lower inflation could increase gold's appeal One more rate hike expected from the Fed The US inflation data gave gold just the boost it needed to break back above $1,940 after failing to pierce that level in recent days. The yellow metal has been range-bound in recent weeks between $1,900 and $1,940 and today's report did what the jobs data failed to do; it provided the catalyst for a breakout. Gold Daily Source - OANDA on Trading View There remains

12-07-2023 18:06 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Trying to break $80 after the US inflation report

The prospect of a soft landing lifts oil prices Rally builds on efforts by Russia and Saudi Arabia to boost prices A break of $80 could be another big step Oil prices have been understandably lifted by the US inflation release today as it could be seen to increase the possibility of a soft landing. Brent was already trending higher though and is now at its highest point since April, having already broken out of the range it traded within for the last couple of months. The next level for Brent

12-07-2023 17:00 GMT by Craig Erlam

Nasdaq - As good a US inflation report as we could have realistically hoped for

US inflation falls faster than expected; CPI 3% (YoY), Core CPI 4.8% (YoY) July Fed hike still highly likely despite inflation drop Nasdaq hits 18-month high after the data Financial markets are buzzing at the US open on Wednesday, with investors buoyed by a very promising inflation report from the US. The report not only beat at the headline level but core actually slipped even further, dropping to 4.8% for the first time since October 2021. The monthly data was also extremely encouraging, wit

12-07-2023 13:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD slips after BoC rate hike

Bank of Canada raises rates by 0.25% US inflation falls to 3.0%, lower than expected The Canadian dollar has posted strong gains in Wednesday's North American session. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3146, down 0.63%.

12-07-2023 10:44 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD - RBA's Lowe may be on way out, US inflation looms

RBA Governor Lowe announces major changes at RBA Board US inflation expected to decline The Australian dollar was sharply higher on Wednesday but could not consolidate these gains. AUD/USD is unchanged in Europe, trading at 0.6691. Will RBA Governor be replaced? Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe spoke on Wednesday and announced key changes to the RBA Board.

12-07-2023 07:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

XAU/USD - Could US CPI data trigger a major breakout in gold?

Traders appear bullish ahead of CPI release A number of resistance levels above Could a stronger inflation report push gold below $1,900? Gold is edging higher again today but there is clearly an element of caution in the move. Perhaps traders are hopeful of a favorable CPI figure from the US but they're clearly not that confident with the price remaining below $1,940 where it has repeatedly run into resistance. Gold Daily Source - OANDA on Trading View A break above here today could be a bull

12-07-2023 07:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD - RBNZ may be done with its tightening cycle after pause

RBNZ leaves rates unchanged after near-two year hiking cycle Inflation is seen returning to target next year NZD performing better but potentially running on fumes The RBNZ opted to pause its tightening cycle earlier today after a very aggressive tightening cycle over the last couple of years. After increasing the cash rate to 5.5%, there are signs that the economy is slowing which will bring inflation down.

12-07-2023 06:51 GMT by Craig Erlam

FTSE 100 - Tentatively higher with an eye on US inflation data

Attention remains on US inflation data today Only a much lower core CPI reading could tempt the Fed to reconsider hiking in two weeks UK100 rebounds but caution may remain unless key level is overcome

12-07-2023 06:25 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD Technical: Bulls rejected at 20 and 200-day moving averages ahead of US CPI

Short-term momentum is likely to have turned negative as seen in the hourly RSI. Key short-term resistance stands at 0.6720. Intermediate supports to watch will be at 0.6630 and 0.6600/6580. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD Technical: Positive momentum ahead of RBA” published on 4 July 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of the AUD/USD have staged the expected push-up and met the first resistance of 0.6720 as it printed a current intraday high of 0.6742 in

12-07-2023 05:05 GMT by Kelvin Wong

New Zealand dollar pares gains as RBNZ holds rates

New Zealand's central bank takes a pause after 12 consecutive hikes New Zealand Manufacturing PMI expected to show manufacturing is stalled US inflation expected to decline to 3.1% The New Zealand dollar showed some gains after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused rates, but has given up most of those gains. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6206, up 0.14%.

12-07-2023 04:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nikkei 225 Technical: Potential bullish reversal

4-week of decline has almost reached 31,530 key medium-term support Oversold condition with the formation of hourly bullish “Hammer” Japanese candlestick Key intermediate resistances will be at 32,730 and 33,200 This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nikkei 225 Technical: Minor corrective decline in progress” published on 6 July 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of the Japan 225 Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) have extended its minor corrective decline withi

11-07-2023 22:51 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Stocks gain ahead of June CPI report

US June CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 4.0% prior; Core CPI (ex food and energy)M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.0%e v 5.3% prior Microsoft gets go-ahead to buy Activision; prompts excitement for further deal making. Impressive demand for 3-year note auction US stocks rose as bond yields remained capped as Wall Street looks like it is ready to move beyond a pivotal inflation report that should suggest interest rates will stay higher for longer. Headline CPI might fall to 2.9% and co

11-07-2023 16:10 GMT by Edward Moya

Australian dollar loses ground despite solid confidence indicators

Australia's consumers and business confidence improve US inflation expected to fall to 3.1% The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6656 in the North American session, down 0.28%. Consumer and business confidence rise Australia released business and confidence data on Tuesday, with both showing improvement.

11-07-2023 10:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Technicals and Triggers – USD/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/MXN

FX volatility might be returning given Wall Street is seeing some exhaustion with several key currency trades. The end of tightening for the advance economies keeps getting delayed and sooner than later it will deliver a major blow to growth. FX volatility should pick up as diverging policies from the Fed, BOE, and PBOC could trigger some significant moves in H2. USD/JPY

11-07-2023 10:34 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold - Edging higher ahead of the US inflation report

Gold appears to have found some support again in recent days after rebounding twice around $1,900. The US jobs report was one possible risk event that could have triggered a big move in gold, one way or another, and the other is due tomorrow in the shape of the US inflation report. It seems gold bulls are feeling a little more confident, although $1,940 still poses a test having been a notable area of support in late May and the first half of June. Gold Source - OANDA on Trading View We could j

11-07-2023 10:08 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Oil steadies after hitting one-month high

Brent hits one-month high Saudi and Russian cuts supporting recent moves Major barriers of resistance above Oil prices are a little flat today after paring earlier gains. Brent hit a one-month high on Monday after breaking above the 21 June peak, bringing an end to a series of lower highs that had contributed to the consolidation we've seen in recent months. While it is still trading around the range highs since early May, the break of the recent high could be viewed as a bullish step that coul

11-07-2023 09:50 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - BoE has cause For optimism in UK jobs report

UK unemployment rises to 4% in the three months to May, up from 3.8% Average earnings hit 7.3% (excluding bonus) and 6.9% (including bonus) Markets expect BoE to raise rates another 1.25% UK jobs data this morning was a mixed bag on the face of it but a deeper dive into the numbers may give the Bank of England more cause for optimism than pessimism. The earnings component of the report, while continuing to partly shield households from soaring inflation, is the part the MPC will be most co

11-07-2023 09:28 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD dips ahead of RBNZ rate decision

New Zealand central bank expected to pause after 12 consecutive hikes New Zealand Manufacturing PMI expected to show manufacturing is stalled The New Zealand dollar is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6189, down 0.35%. RBNZ expected to take a pause The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be in the spotlight on Wednesday.

11-07-2023 07:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Resilient gold is supported by geopolitical risk

Historical tightly inverse correlation between gold (XAU/USD) and US Treasury 10-year real yield (TIPS) has started to wane in the past four weeks. An uptick in geopolitical risk may be the factor that is supporting a resilient movement in gold despite higher 10-year TIPS. Watch the US$1,940 key intermediate resistance on gold (XAU/USD) for a potential bullish breakout. In the past week, a higher momentum movement is seen in longer-term sovereign yields over their shorter-term durations where t

11-07-2023 06:01 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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