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Canadian dollar flat ahead of CPI, US retail sales

Canada's inflation expected to ease US retail sales projected to improve The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Tuesday, trading at 1.3204. USD/CAD should show some life in the North American session, with the release of Canadian inflation and US retail sales. Will Canada's core inflation fall? Canada releases the June inflation report later today, and the Bank of Canada will be hoping for good news.

18-07-2023 07:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie shrugs after RBA minutes, US retail sales next

RBA minutes point to close call at July decision US retail sales for June expected to climb The Australian dollar has edged lower on Tuesday, trading at 0.6807, down 0.14%. We could see some further movement in the North American session when the US releases retail sales. RBA minutes point to uncertainty about the economy The RBA minutes didn't provide much in the way of insights and the Australian dollar barely showed a muted response.

18-07-2023 05:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Hang Seng Index Technical: Plummeted towards minor uptrend support

Reopened after yesterday’s closure to due typhoon, shed -2% due to negative follow-through from yesterday’s weak China economic data. Short-term minor uptrend from the 7 July 2023 low remains intact. Short-term downside momentum reached oversold condition. One of China’s proxies benchmark stock indices, the Hang Seng Index plummeted today, 18 July at the open and shed -2% intraday at this time of the writing due to a negative follow-through from yesterday’s weak China data (Q2 GDP, retail sales

18-07-2023 03:18 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD Technical: Short-term potential bullish revival

Cleared above 200-day moving average ex-post US CPI. Short-term uptrend but the medium-term trend is still sideways as it remained below a major descending trendline resistance at 0.6930. Short-term momentum, hourly RSI has turned bullish. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD Technical: Bulls rejected at 20 and 200-day moving averages ahead of US CPI” published on 12 July 2023. Click here for a recap. Above the 200-day moving average but still below a major descending tren

18-07-2023 00:16 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Gold - Edges lower after failing at $1,960 but is the recovery over?

Gold pares gains after post-inflation bounce US yields remain lower, pulling the dollar down with them Resistance levels remain above at key Fibonacci levels Gold has rotated lower over the last couple of days after previously recovering on the back of encouraging US inflation data. The decline in US yields that we've seen since the release has weighed heavily on the US dollar and given the yellow metal a real boost after having endured a pretty torrid May and June. Is the recovery sustainable

17-07-2023 16:39 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Chinese data and resumed Libyan output weigh on oil

Chinese growth underwhelms Libya resumes production after brief outage Key technical support levels still below Oil prices pulled back from last week's highs today, weighed down by the weaker Chinese figures and reports of some Libyan outages being restored. The numbers from the world's second-largest economy are almost certainly the bigger factor here especially against the backdrop of sluggish growth around the globe.

17-07-2023 16:29 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil tentatively lower on disappointing Chinese data

Goldman Sachs eyes a significant crude deficit in the second half of the year Markets price in 25% chance Fed cuts at December 13th FOMC meeting Bitcoin supporter Novogratz expects Bitcoin ETF gets done by end of year Oil Crude prices are lower as China’s economic recovery stalled and as Libya resumed production at key oil fields. Oil won’t catch a bid unless China finally unleashes meaningful stimulus that propels large parts of the economy. Little rate cuts here and there and support for p

17-07-2023 13:01 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks gain ahead of big bank and tech earnings

Dollar wavers post Chinese data 10-year Treasury yield down 2.3 points to 3.809% JPMorgan extends gains post Friday's earnings US stocks are slightly higher after some disappointing Chinese GDP data raised concerns about the global economy but supported the argument that disinflation pressures are firmly in place. The disinflation story won’t be going away after Ford announced some big cuts with their electric F-150 truck prices. The disinflation process should remain intact and that should s

17-07-2023 12:52 GMT by Edward Moya

FTSE 100 - Slips as Chinese economic data disappoints once more

Chinese growth fears mount after GDP data Rate cut not coming yet from PBOC FTSE 100 nearing some key levels

17-07-2023 12:42 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro steadies after sizzling week

The euro is showing little movement on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is unchanged at 1.1226.

17-07-2023 11:30 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD edges lower ahead of RBA minutes, Lowe is out

Australian dollar soared over 2% last week RBA minutes to be released on Tuesday RBA Governor Lowe will be replaced by Michelle Bullock The Australian dollar has started the week in negative territory. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6816, down 0.32%.

17-07-2023 10:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/USD coming off superb week as US dollar beats a retreat

NZD/USD in negative territory after jumping 2.58% last week US dollar was broadly lower last week on expectations that Fed rate-tightening almost over The New Zealand dollar has started the week with considerable losses. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6338, down 0.51%.

17-07-2023 06:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Further internal demand deterioration in China but PBoC refrains from cutting key interest rate

Further internal demand deterioration in China but PBoC refrains from cutting key interest rate Retail sales in China decelerated to 3.1% y/y in June from May’s 12.7% y/y, weakest growth rate since December 2022. Q2 GDP growth in China came in below expectations at 6.3% y/y vs. consensus estimates of 7.3% y/y. China’s central bank, PBoC left its one-year medium-term lending facility rate unchanged at 2.65% likely due to the risk of a “liquidity trap” scenario.

17-07-2023 02:29 GMT by Kelvin Wong

DJIA Technical: Bulls retreated again at key range resistance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has underperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in the past two weeks. Last Friday’s initial bullish price actions of DJIA retreated at 34,630 key range resistance. Minor uptrend from the 10 July 2023 low of 33,595 has shown signs of exhaustion. Last week’s advance halted at 7-month range resistance Fig 1: US Wall St 30 medium-term trend as of 17 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since the 13 December 2022 high of 34,944, the US Wall S

16-07-2023 22:21 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Week Ahead - UK inflation, earnings, interest rate decisions galore

The week before the July 26th FOMC meeting will contain a handful of key economic reports and several key earnings results. The initial assessment of the economy is somewhat upbeat as CEO Jamie Dimon noted that the US economy continues to be ‘resilient’.

14-07-2023 17:07 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Podcast - UK inflation, gold runs into resistance, US markets

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the key themes moving markets at the end of the week. They discuss the latest UK data and look ahead to next week's CPI release, gold and how US markets have traded in the aftermath of the inflation numbers.

14-07-2023 13:00 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Incredible gains and major resistance level overcome

Output cuts and inflation data continue to boost crude prices Temporary disruptions could add to the bullishness Potential resistance around $83-$84 Oil is trading relatively flat today but has made tremendous gains over the last couple of weeks and could still add to that over the coming sessions. The price has risen more than 13% from the lows on 28 June and, despite appearing to struggle at times yesterday, still has plenty of momentum.

14-07-2023 08:34 GMT by Craig Erlam

Dow - A stellar week in response to very promising US inflation data

Has the US turned a corner on inflation? Earnings may determine whether rally can be sustained Dow testing major resistance level It's shaping up to be quite a relaxed end to the week, one in which we've seen stellar gains on the back of some very encouraging inflation data from the US. While there have been occasions when stock markets have performed well this year despite not appearing to reflect the fundamental reality of rapid economy-threatening rate hikes, the inability to really turn a c

14-07-2023 07:19 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY Technical: Torpedoed down but holding at 200-day moving average

USD/JPY has shed -5.4% from its 30 June 2023 high of 145.07, on sight to record its worst weekly loss since 7 November 2022. Today’s intraday sell-off has managed to hold at the 200-day moving average acting as support at 137.65. Short-term momentum has turned positive which increases the odds of a corrective rebound. This is a follow-up on our prior analysis “USD/JPY Technical: “At risk of a minor bounce before bearish tone resumes” published earlier this week on 11 July 2023. The USD/JPY has

14-07-2023 04:54 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Too early to celebrate disinflation

Current up moves in long-duration equities and fixed income came at the expense of a weaker US dollar. A persistent weak US dollar may lead to an upside revival in commodities prices. Inflationary expectations may creep up again due to higher oil/commodities prices. Disinflationary narrative seems premature and may be mispriced. Market participants have taken a “disinflation ecstasy pill”, bidding up long-duration equities and fixed income in the past two sessions after the latest June US CPI d

14-07-2023 02:50 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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