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Technicals and Triggers: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD
EUR/USD excessively overbought? The euro-dollar ascent was mostly a one-way move for most of July.  After inflation eased to the slowest pace in more than two years, the dollar tumbled.  With the Fed entering their blackout period before the July 26th FOMC meeting, the lack of hawkish pushback has allowed the dollar to remain vulnerable to further pain just ahead of the 1.1300 handle.  Bullish momentum has cleared multiple hurdles but the 1.1350 level should prove to be rather strong. While th
18-07-2023 12:47 GMT by Edward Moya
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Gold rises post ECB's Klot comment and Canadian CPI report
ECB's Knot (hawk) noted that for July I think it is a necessity, for anything beyond July it would at most be a possibility but by no means a certainty Canadian headline CPI was 2.8%, versus 3% expected, which should allow the BOC to keep rates on hold Global crypto market cap hovers around $1.2 trillion Oil Crude prices are steadying here on expectations that the oil market will remain tight as Russian shipments drop and as China prepares to provide more support to households.
18-07-2023 10:51 GMT by Edward Moya
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Wall Street grows confident Fed will be 'One and Done' on rate hikes
Both the advance and core (ex-auto) retail sales monthly reading post third straight gain Fed rate hike odds stand at 93.6% for July 26th meeting ECB odds for a July rate hike stand at 93.2%. while September falls to 60.1% US stocks are lower after a retail sales report confirmed the US economy is still healthy and ready for another quarter-point rate rise by the Fed. It was a busy morning as Morgan Stanley posted mixed results, while Bank of America impressed.  We are done with the majority
18-07-2023 10:16 GMT by Edward Moya
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Canadian dollar flat ahead of CPI, US retail sales
Canada's inflation expected to ease US retail sales projected to improve The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Tuesday, trading at 1.3204. USD/CAD should show some life in the North American session, with the release of Canadian inflation and US retail sales. Will Canada's core inflation fall? Canada releases the June inflation report later today, and the Bank of Canada will be hoping for good news.
18-07-2023 07:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Aussie shrugs after RBA minutes, US retail sales next
RBA minutes point to close call at July decision US retail sales for June expected to climb The Australian dollar has edged lower on Tuesday, trading at 0.6807, down 0.14%. We could see some further movement in the North American session when the US releases retail sales. RBA minutes point to uncertainty about the economy The RBA minutes didn't provide much in the way of insights and the Australian dollar barely showed a muted response.
18-07-2023 05:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Hang Seng Index Technical: Plummeted towards minor uptrend support
Reopened after yesterday’s closure to due typhoon, shed -2% due to negative follow-through from yesterday’s weak China economic data. Short-term minor uptrend from the 7 July 2023 low remains intact. Short-term downside momentum reached oversold condition. One of China’s proxies benchmark stock indices, the Hang Seng Index plummeted today, 18 July at the open and shed -2% intraday at this time of the writing due to a negative follow-through from yesterday’s weak China data (Q2 GDP, retail sales
18-07-2023 03:18 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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AUD/USD Technical: Short-term potential bullish revival
Cleared above 200-day moving average ex-post US CPI. Short-term uptrend but the medium-term trend is still sideways as it remained below a major descending trendline resistance at 0.6930. Short-term momentum, hourly RSI has turned bullish. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD Technical: Bulls rejected at 20 and 200-day moving averages ahead of US CPI” published on 12 July 2023. Click here for a recap. Above the 200-day moving average but still below a major descending tren
18-07-2023 00:16 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Gold - Edges lower after failing at $1,960 but is the recovery over?
Gold pares gains after post-inflation bounce US yields remain lower, pulling the dollar down with them Resistance levels remain above at key Fibonacci levels Gold has rotated lower over the last couple of days after previously recovering on the back of encouraging US inflation data. The decline in US yields that we've seen since the release has weighed heavily on the US dollar and given the yellow metal a real boost after having endured a pretty torrid May and June. Is the recovery sustainable
17-07-2023 16:39 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Brent Crude - Chinese data and resumed Libyan output weigh on oil
Chinese growth underwhelms Libya resumes production after brief outage Key technical support levels still below Oil prices pulled back from last week's highs today, weighed down by the weaker Chinese figures and reports of some Libyan outages being restored. The numbers from the world's second-largest economy are almost certainly the bigger factor here especially against the backdrop of sluggish growth around the globe.
17-07-2023 16:29 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil tentatively lower on disappointing Chinese data
Goldman Sachs eyes a significant crude deficit in the second half of the year Markets price in 25% chance Fed cuts at December 13th FOMC meeting Bitcoin supporter Novogratz expects Bitcoin ETF gets done by end of year Oil Crude prices are lower as China’s economic recovery stalled and as Libya resumed production at key oil fields.  Oil won’t catch a bid unless China finally unleashes meaningful stimulus that propels large parts of the economy.  Little rate cuts here and there and support for p
17-07-2023 13:01 GMT by Edward Moya
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Stocks gain ahead of big bank and tech earnings
Dollar wavers post Chinese data 10-year Treasury yield down 2.3 points to 3.809% JPMorgan extends gains post Friday's earnings US stocks are slightly higher after some disappointing Chinese GDP data raised concerns about the global economy but supported the argument that disinflation pressures are firmly in place.  The disinflation story won’t be going away after Ford announced some big cuts with their electric F-150 truck prices.  The disinflation process should remain intact and that should s
17-07-2023 12:52 GMT by Edward Moya
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AUD/USD edges lower ahead of RBA minutes, Lowe is out
Australian dollar soared over 2% last week RBA minutes to be released on Tuesday RBA Governor Lowe will be replaced by Michelle Bullock The Australian dollar has started the week in negative territory. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6816, down 0.32%.
17-07-2023 10:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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NZD/USD coming off superb week as US dollar beats a retreat
NZD/USD in negative territory after jumping 2.58% last week US dollar was broadly lower last week on expectations that Fed rate-tightening almost over The New Zealand dollar has started the week with considerable losses. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6338, down 0.51%.
17-07-2023 06:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Further internal demand deterioration in China but PBoC refrains from cutting key interest rate
Further internal demand deterioration in China but PBoC refrains from cutting key interest rate Retail sales in China decelerated to 3.1% y/y in June from May’s 12.7% y/y, weakest growth rate since December 2022. Q2 GDP growth in China came in below expectations at 6.3% y/y vs. consensus estimates of 7.3% y/y. China’s central bank, PBoC left its one-year medium-term lending facility rate unchanged at 2.65% likely due to the risk of a “liquidity trap” scenario.
17-07-2023 02:29 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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DJIA Technical: Bulls retreated again at key range resistance
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has underperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in the past two weeks. Last Friday’s initial bullish price actions of DJIA retreated at 34,630 key range resistance. Minor uptrend from the 10 July 2023 low of 33,595 has shown signs of exhaustion. Last week’s advance halted at 7-month range resistance Fig 1:  US Wall St 30 medium-term trend as of 17 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since the 13 December 2022 high of 34,944, the US Wall S
16-07-2023 22:21 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Podcast - UK inflation, gold runs into resistance, US markets
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the key themes moving markets at the end of the week. They discuss the latest UK data and look ahead to next week's CPI release, gold and how US markets have traded in the aftermath of the inflation numbers.
14-07-2023 13:00 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Brent Crude - Incredible gains and major resistance level overcome
Output cuts and inflation data continue to boost crude prices Temporary disruptions could add to the bullishness Potential resistance around $83-$84 Oil is trading relatively flat today but has made tremendous gains over the last couple of weeks and could still add to that over the coming sessions. The price has risen more than 13% from the lows on 28 June and, despite appearing to struggle at times yesterday, still has plenty of momentum.
14-07-2023 08:34 GMT by Craig Erlam
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