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USD/JPY Technical: Torpedoed down but holding at 200-day moving average
USD/JPY has shed -5.4% from its 30 June 2023 high of 145.07, on sight to record its worst weekly loss since 7 November 2022. Today’s intraday sell-off has managed to hold at the 200-day moving average acting as support at 137.65. Short-term momentum has turned positive which increases the odds of a corrective rebound. This is a follow-up on our prior analysis “USD/JPY Technical: “At risk of a minor bounce before bearish tone resumes” published earlier this week on 11 July 2023. The USD/JPY has
14-07-2023 04:54 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Too early to celebrate disinflation
Current up moves in long-duration equities and fixed income came at the expense of a weaker US dollar. A persistent weak US dollar may lead to an upside revival in commodities prices. Inflationary expectations may creep up again due to higher oil/commodities prices. Disinflationary narrative seems premature and may be mispriced. Market participants have taken a “disinflation ecstasy pill”, bidding up long-duration equities and fixed income in the past two sessions after the latest June US CPI d
14-07-2023 02:50 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Gold - Holding gains but a few big tests lie above
Stalling at $1,960 Key fib levels remain a big test Gold is also trading marginally higher today and struggling around a notable resistance level, $1,960. It broke through $1,940 yesterday on the back of the inflation numbers and has now entered retracement territory where a few key levels will be put to the test. From a technical standpoint, those are the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels - May highs to June lows - which happen to fall around $1,960, $1,980, and $2,000, respec
13-07-2023 12:49 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Brent Crude - Is the oil rally starting to stall around $80?
US inflation data takes Brent above $80 Chinese trade data disappoints again Momentum appearing to wane Oil prices are a little higher again in early trade, seemingly still buoyed by yesterday's US inflation report, and are continuing to push for a convincing break above $80 in Brent crude. It is trading a little above $80 this morning and did at times yesterday, but rather than generating fresh momentum, it seems to instead be running into some difficulty. That would be understandable.
13-07-2023 12:32 GMT by Craig Erlam
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GBP/USD - UK economy continues to show remarkable resilience
UK economy posts a small contraction of -0.1% in May Higher rates will damage the economy going forward Sterling rally continues breaking above 1.30 against the dollar The UK economy posted only a small contraction in May which was much better than forecast as the country continues to show strong resilience in the face of significant pressures. That resilience has helped to sustain inflation at much higher levels than the Bank of England was hoping for which has in turn led to more rate hikes a
13-07-2023 11:44 GMT by Craig Erlam
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AUD/USD remains red hot and is trading at 3-week high
Australian dollar continues to power higher RBA inflation expectations remain at 5.2% US inflation falls to 3% The Australian dollar continues to sizzle and has climbed 1.04% on Thursday, after rising 1.56% a day earlier. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6857, close to a 3-week high. Australian inflation expectations remain high Inflation remains the Reserve Bank of Australia's number one priority and Thursday's inflation expectations release vindicated the RBA's concern that
13-07-2023 08:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Sterling climbs as UK GDP beats estimate
UK GDP contracts in May but beats estimate British pound hits 15-month high against the US dollar The British pound continues to rally against the US dollar. GBP/USD has risen to 1.3068, up 0.62%.
13-07-2023 06:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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China stock market’s momentum-driven rally; watch out for China’s Big Tech
China Big Tech is leading the current momentum-driven rally in China stock market. Supported by a weaker USD/CNH that broke below key near-term support of 7.2160. Further hints from China’s top policymakers that the prior 3-year of stringent regulatory crackdowns on China’s leading technology companies have ended. Current momentum-driven rally of China Big Tech may still see a bumpy ride due to a weak external demand environment. Prior to yesterday’s release of the key US consumer inflation da
13-07-2023 03:32 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Gold - Boosted by US inflation data but recovery still early
Recent range highs broken after CPI release Lower inflation could increase gold's appeal One more rate hike expected from the Fed The US inflation data gave gold just the boost it needed to break back above $1,940 after failing to pierce that level in recent days. The yellow metal has been range-bound in recent weeks between $1,900 and $1,940 and today's report did what the jobs data failed to do; it provided the catalyst for a breakout. Gold Daily Source - OANDA on Trading View There remains
12-07-2023 18:06 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Brent Crude - Trying to break $80 after the US inflation report
The prospect of a soft landing lifts oil prices Rally builds on efforts by Russia and Saudi Arabia to boost prices A break of $80 could be another big step Oil prices have been understandably lifted by the US inflation release today as it could be seen to increase the possibility of a soft landing. Brent was already trending higher though and is now at its highest point since April, having already broken out of the range it traded within for the last couple of months. ​ The next level for Brent
12-07-2023 17:00 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Nasdaq - As good a US inflation report as we could have realistically hoped for
US inflation falls faster than expected; CPI 3% (YoY), Core CPI 4.8% (YoY) July Fed hike still highly likely despite inflation drop Nasdaq hits 18-month high after the data Financial markets are buzzing at the US open on Wednesday, with investors buoyed by a very promising inflation report from the US. The report not only beat at the headline level but core actually slipped even further, dropping to 4.8% for the first time since October 2021. The monthly data was also extremely encouraging, wit
12-07-2023 13:12 GMT by Craig Erlam
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USD/CAD slips after BoC rate hike
Bank of Canada raises rates by 0.25% US inflation falls to 3.0%, lower than expected The Canadian dollar has posted strong gains in Wednesday's North American session. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3146, down 0.63%.
12-07-2023 10:44 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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AUD/USD - RBA's Lowe may be on way out, US inflation looms
RBA Governor Lowe announces major changes at RBA Board US inflation expected to decline The Australian dollar was sharply higher on Wednesday but could not consolidate these gains. AUD/USD is unchanged in Europe, trading at 0.6691. Will RBA Governor be replaced? Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe spoke on Wednesday and announced key changes to the RBA Board.
12-07-2023 07:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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XAU/USD - Could US CPI data trigger a major breakout in gold?
Traders appear bullish ahead of CPI release A number of resistance levels above Could a stronger inflation report push gold below $1,900? Gold is edging higher again today but there is clearly an element of caution in the move. Perhaps traders are hopeful of a favorable CPI figure from the US but they're clearly not that confident with the price remaining below $1,940 where it has repeatedly run into resistance. Gold Daily Source - OANDA on Trading View A break above here today could be a bull
12-07-2023 07:12 GMT by Craig Erlam
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NZD/USD - RBNZ may be done with its tightening cycle after pause
RBNZ leaves rates unchanged after near-two year hiking cycle Inflation is seen returning to target next year NZD performing better but potentially running on fumes The RBNZ opted to pause its tightening cycle earlier today after a very aggressive tightening cycle over the last couple of years. After increasing the cash rate to 5.5%, there are signs that the economy is slowing which will bring inflation down.
12-07-2023 06:51 GMT by Craig Erlam
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AUD/USD Technical: Bulls rejected at 20 and 200-day moving averages ahead of US CPI
Short-term momentum is likely to have turned negative as seen in the hourly RSI. Key short-term resistance stands at 0.6720. Intermediate supports to watch will be at 0.6630 and 0.6600/6580. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD Technical: Positive momentum ahead of RBA” published on 4 July 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of the AUD/USD have staged the expected push-up and met the first resistance of 0.6720 as it printed a current intraday high of 0.6742 in
12-07-2023 05:05 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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New Zealand dollar pares gains as RBNZ holds rates
New Zealand's central bank takes a pause after 12 consecutive hikes New Zealand Manufacturing PMI expected to show manufacturing is stalled US inflation expected to decline to 3.1% The New Zealand dollar showed some gains after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused rates, but has given up most of those gains. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6206, up 0.14%.
12-07-2023 04:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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