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Stocks gain ahead of big bank and tech earnings

Dollar wavers post Chinese data 10-year Treasury yield down 2.3 points to 3.809% JPMorgan extends gains post Friday's earnings US stocks are slightly higher after some disappointing Chinese GDP data raised concerns about the global economy but supported the argument that disinflation pressures are firmly in place. The disinflation story won’t be going away after Ford announced some big cuts with their electric F-150 truck prices. The disinflation process should remain intact and that should s

17-07-2023 12:52 GMT by Edward Moya

FTSE 100 - Slips as Chinese economic data disappoints once more

Chinese growth fears mount after GDP data Rate cut not coming yet from PBOC FTSE 100 nearing some key levels

17-07-2023 12:42 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro steadies after sizzling week

The euro is showing little movement on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is unchanged at 1.1226.

17-07-2023 11:30 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD edges lower ahead of RBA minutes, Lowe is out

Australian dollar soared over 2% last week RBA minutes to be released on Tuesday RBA Governor Lowe will be replaced by Michelle Bullock The Australian dollar has started the week in negative territory. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6816, down 0.32%.

17-07-2023 10:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/USD coming off superb week as US dollar beats a retreat

NZD/USD in negative territory after jumping 2.58% last week US dollar was broadly lower last week on expectations that Fed rate-tightening almost over The New Zealand dollar has started the week with considerable losses. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6338, down 0.51%.

17-07-2023 06:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Further internal demand deterioration in China but PBoC refrains from cutting key interest rate

Further internal demand deterioration in China but PBoC refrains from cutting key interest rate Retail sales in China decelerated to 3.1% y/y in June from May’s 12.7% y/y, weakest growth rate since December 2022. Q2 GDP growth in China came in below expectations at 6.3% y/y vs. consensus estimates of 7.3% y/y. China’s central bank, PBoC left its one-year medium-term lending facility rate unchanged at 2.65% likely due to the risk of a “liquidity trap” scenario.

17-07-2023 02:29 GMT by Kelvin Wong

DJIA Technical: Bulls retreated again at key range resistance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has underperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in the past two weeks. Last Friday’s initial bullish price actions of DJIA retreated at 34,630 key range resistance. Minor uptrend from the 10 July 2023 low of 33,595 has shown signs of exhaustion. Last week’s advance halted at 7-month range resistance Fig 1: US Wall St 30 medium-term trend as of 17 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since the 13 December 2022 high of 34,944, the US Wall S

16-07-2023 22:21 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Week Ahead - UK inflation, earnings, interest rate decisions galore

The week before the July 26th FOMC meeting will contain a handful of key economic reports and several key earnings results. The initial assessment of the economy is somewhat upbeat as CEO Jamie Dimon noted that the US economy continues to be ‘resilient’.

14-07-2023 17:07 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Podcast - UK inflation, gold runs into resistance, US markets

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the key themes moving markets at the end of the week. They discuss the latest UK data and look ahead to next week's CPI release, gold and how US markets have traded in the aftermath of the inflation numbers.

14-07-2023 13:00 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Incredible gains and major resistance level overcome

Output cuts and inflation data continue to boost crude prices Temporary disruptions could add to the bullishness Potential resistance around $83-$84 Oil is trading relatively flat today but has made tremendous gains over the last couple of weeks and could still add to that over the coming sessions. The price has risen more than 13% from the lows on 28 June and, despite appearing to struggle at times yesterday, still has plenty of momentum.

14-07-2023 08:34 GMT by Craig Erlam

Dow - A stellar week in response to very promising US inflation data

Has the US turned a corner on inflation? Earnings may determine whether rally can be sustained Dow testing major resistance level It's shaping up to be quite a relaxed end to the week, one in which we've seen stellar gains on the back of some very encouraging inflation data from the US. While there have been occasions when stock markets have performed well this year despite not appearing to reflect the fundamental reality of rapid economy-threatening rate hikes, the inability to really turn a c

14-07-2023 07:19 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY Technical: Torpedoed down but holding at 200-day moving average

USD/JPY has shed -5.4% from its 30 June 2023 high of 145.07, on sight to record its worst weekly loss since 7 November 2022. Today’s intraday sell-off has managed to hold at the 200-day moving average acting as support at 137.65. Short-term momentum has turned positive which increases the odds of a corrective rebound. This is a follow-up on our prior analysis “USD/JPY Technical: “At risk of a minor bounce before bearish tone resumes” published earlier this week on 11 July 2023. The USD/JPY has

14-07-2023 04:54 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Too early to celebrate disinflation

Current up moves in long-duration equities and fixed income came at the expense of a weaker US dollar. A persistent weak US dollar may lead to an upside revival in commodities prices. Inflationary expectations may creep up again due to higher oil/commodities prices. Disinflationary narrative seems premature and may be mispriced. Market participants have taken a “disinflation ecstasy pill”, bidding up long-duration equities and fixed income in the past two sessions after the latest June US CPI d

14-07-2023 02:50 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Video - Big level broken in GBP/USD after US and UK data

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses GBPUSD in the aftermath of some major US and UK economic releases.

13-07-2023 18:54 GMT by Craig Erlam

Gold - Holding gains but a few big tests lie above

Stalling at $1,960 Key fib levels remain a big test Gold is also trading marginally higher today and struggling around a notable resistance level, $1,960. It broke through $1,940 yesterday on the back of the inflation numbers and has now entered retracement territory where a few key levels will be put to the test. From a technical standpoint, those are the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels - May highs to June lows - which happen to fall around $1,960, $1,980, and $2,000, respec

13-07-2023 12:49 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Is the oil rally starting to stall around $80?

US inflation data takes Brent above $80 Chinese trade data disappoints again Momentum appearing to wane Oil prices are a little higher again in early trade, seemingly still buoyed by yesterday's US inflation report, and are continuing to push for a convincing break above $80 in Brent crude. It is trading a little above $80 this morning and did at times yesterday, but rather than generating fresh momentum, it seems to instead be running into some difficulty. That would be understandable.

13-07-2023 12:32 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - UK economy continues to show remarkable resilience

UK economy posts a small contraction of -0.1% in May Higher rates will damage the economy going forward Sterling rally continues breaking above 1.30 against the dollar The UK economy posted only a small contraction in May which was much better than forecast as the country continues to show strong resilience in the face of significant pressures. That resilience has helped to sustain inflation at much higher levels than the Bank of England was hoping for which has in turn led to more rate hikes a

13-07-2023 11:44 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD remains red hot and is trading at 3-week high

Australian dollar continues to power higher RBA inflation expectations remain at 5.2% US inflation falls to 3% The Australian dollar continues to sizzle and has climbed 1.04% on Thursday, after rising 1.56% a day earlier. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6857, close to a 3-week high. Australian inflation expectations remain high Inflation remains the Reserve Bank of Australia's number one priority and Thursday's inflation expectations release vindicated the RBA's concern that

13-07-2023 08:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Sterling climbs as UK GDP beats estimate

UK GDP contracts in May but beats estimate British pound hits 15-month high against the US dollar The British pound continues to rally against the US dollar. GBP/USD has risen to 1.3068, up 0.62%.

13-07-2023 06:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

China stock market’s momentum-driven rally; watch out for China’s Big Tech

China Big Tech is leading the current momentum-driven rally in China stock market. Supported by a weaker USD/CNH that broke below key near-term support of 7.2160. Further hints from China’s top policymakers that the prior 3-year of stringent regulatory crackdowns on China’s leading technology companies have ended. Current momentum-driven rally of China Big Tech may still see a bumpy ride due to a weak external demand environment. Prior to yesterday’s release of the key US consumer inflation da

13-07-2023 03:32 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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