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Gold Technical: Holding above 50-day moving average

Medium-term uptrend of Gold (XAU/USD) remains intact. Its recent slide of -1.7% from the 20 July 2023 high of US$1,987.53 has pull-backed close to its 50-day moving average. Short-term elements suggest a potential bullish reversal for Gold (XAU/USD) with key support at US$1,939. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Resilient gold is supported by geopolitical risk” published on 11 July 2023. Click here for a recap. Gold (XAU/USD) has staged the bullish breakout above US$1,940 and

25-07-2023 06:12 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD Technical: Rebounded right at 200-day moving average

AUD is the biggest gainer (+0.22%) against the USD in today’s Asian morning session. The current rebound of the AUD/USD has taken shape right at the key 200-day moving now acting as support at 0.6700. Intermediate resistance for the AUD/USD stands at 0.6835. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD Technical: Short-term bullish revival” published on 18 July 2023.

24-07-2023 22:40 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil reaches 3-month high, Gold and Bitcoin edge lower

Oil Crude prices are tentatively breaking out as expectations remain for the oil market to remain tight despite all global weakness that is emerging. The rally in crude oil is impressive as it occurs as Europe is looking very weak right now, the US is slowing down, and China’s Politburo isn’t expected to unveil major stimulus this week. Oil is also getting a boost from Wall Street as optimism grows the end of the Fed’s rate hiking campaign appears it could be here. With Europe lagging by a c

24-07-2023 14:29 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold - Paring gains ahead of the Fed

Fed could be the next big catalyst as markets prepare for one more hike A break of $2,000 could be a bullish development Gold appears to be pausing for breath ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Economic data recently has given the yellow metal a big lift, with the price coming close to testing $2,000 at one stage last week.

24-07-2023 12:15 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Oil testing the 200DMA for the first time since last summer

A new three-month high Can Brent break the 200-day SMA? Oil prices are trending higher again on Monday, building on the surge late last week and reaching their highest level in three months. There have been a number of factors that have contributed to the gains recently, starting with the Saudi extension to its million barrel cut alongside Russia's export reduction followed by data that could enable a soft landing in countries that are aggressively raising rates.

24-07-2023 12:11 GMT by Craig Erlam

Nasdaq - Caution ahead of major central bank meetings, weaker PMIs

Fed, ECB and BoJ all meet this week Weak PMIs point to further cooling in the economy NAS100 nears channel lows Equity markets are treading water at the start of what is going to be a very lively week. There are some huge central bank meetings this week, the most notable naturally being the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Interest rates are finally at or very close to their peaks and this week could see the Fed and ECB announce the last rate hike in their tightening cycles. And a look at the PMI

24-07-2023 12:07 GMT by Craig Erlam

British pound extends losses after soft UK PMIs

British pound extends losses UK manufacturing and services PMIs decline in July The British pound continues to lose ground. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2822, down 0.23%.

24-07-2023 11:51 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD and USD/JPY in focus post flash PMIs; Bitcoin falls below $29.5k

It was surprisingly a busy weekend as Spain delivered a close national election, Barbie showed us the economy is still partying, Chevron reported impressive earnings, and as expectations turn downbeat for China to deliver significant stimulus this week. Despite all the headlines, overnight both S&P 500 futures and the dollar were mostly little changed until the release of the flash PMIs. EUR/USD tumbles after weak eurozone PMI data The euro declined below the 1.1120 level against the dollar aft

24-07-2023 10:31 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD under pressure after soft PMIs

The euro has started the week in negative territory. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1083, down 0.38%.

24-07-2023 10:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Bullish exhaustion sighted

Last week, Nasdaq 100 underperformed against the other major US stock indices. Nasdaq 100 failed to have a weekly close above 15,690 key medium-term resistance and ended with a weekly bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern. Key near-term support will be at 15,270 (20-day moving average). Last week, the year-to-date highly flying technology-concentrated Nasdaq 100 underperformed with a weekly loss of -0.90% versus weekly gains seen in other major US stock indices; S&P 500 (+0.69%), Dow Jone

24-07-2023 07:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Yen rebounds after rough week, US Manufacturing PMI next

The Japanese yen has bounced back on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.27, down 0.40%.

24-07-2023 05:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Week Ahead - Bracing for next week's earnings, rate decisions, and major economic data

US The Fed is expected to resume raising rates at the July 26th FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures see a 96% chance that the central bank will deliver a quarter-point rate rise, bringing the target range to between 5.25% and 5.50%, almost a 22-year high. The Fed delivered 10 straight rate increases and then paused at the June FOMC meeting. The Fed is going to raise rates on Wednesday and seems poised to be noncommittal with what they will do in September. The economic data has been mixed (str

21-07-2023 14:00 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - A Big Week Ahead (BOJ, ECB, Fed, Earnings, Major US data)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the drop in the yen after a YCC report, recap some of this week's big macro themes and talk commodities.

21-07-2023 12:47 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil rises as OPEC+ likely to try to keep oil market tight; Gold lower on strong USD

Commodities are starting to post some diverging trends as US soft landing hopes improve. Oil has benefited from a resilient US economy, but gold has struggled as a tight labor market suggests the Fed may need to keep interest rates higher for longer. A recent Bloomberg survey noted that firmer growth prospects are expected through Q3, potentially rising 0.5%. The outlook for Q4 is GDP to contract 0.4%. Oil Oil prices are rising on optimism that the outlooks for China and India should keep the

21-07-2023 12:40 GMT by Edward Moya

Morning Movers: Yen tumbles as BOJ expected to keep YCC intact, Nasdaq's rebalancing

USD/JPY Yen dives on reports BOJ sees little need to adjust YCC Central bank-a-palooza was supposed to start next week, but traders got a head start after reports surfaced that the BOJ saw little urgency to adjust their yield curve control program (YCC). It looks like FX traders are expecting the BOJ to maintain their ultra-loose monetary policy and for the Fed to deliver a quarter-point rate rise and to have a wait-and-see approach about the September meeting. The Japanese yen is the we

21-07-2023 10:15 GMT by Edward Moya

British pound dips despite rebound in retail sales

UK retail sales rise in May Former Fed Chair Bernanke says Fed hikes could be done after July The British pound is in negative territory on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2824, down 0.34%.

21-07-2023 08:22 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CAD flat ahead of Canadian retail sales

Canada's retail sales expected to slow Former Chair Bernanke says the July hike may be the last increase The Canadian dollar is trading quietly on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3157, down 0.09%. It has been a busy week in the currency markets, with the US dollar rebounding and posting strong gains against the major currencies.

21-07-2023 07:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen sinks as inflation rises

Japan's core inflation rises in June USD/JPY jumps over 1% The US dollar continues to rally as the Japanese yen is down for a fourth straight day. In Friday's European session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.93, up 1.33%. The yen has taken investors on a roller-coaster ride.

21-07-2023 04:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

WTI Oil Technical: Potential bullish reversal “Descending Wedge” in play

Major downtrend phase from the 7 March 2022 swing high has evolved into a potential bullish reversal “Descending Wedge” configuration. US$77.30 is the key intermediate resistance (200-day moving average & upper boundary of “Descending Wedge”). Key short-term support rests at US$72.20, also the 50-day moving average. Since its 7 Nov 2020 medium-term swing high of US$94.11 per barrel, the price actions of West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) have been oscillating within an 8-month bu

21-07-2023 03:49 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/JPY Technical: Potential continuation of the bearish trend

The +326 pips rebound seen in the USD/JPY from the 14 July 2023 low of 137.24 has reached a minor key inflection point. Short-term momentum (hourly RSI) has turned bearish. 60 is the key short-term resistance to watch. This is a follow-up on our prior analysis “USD/JPY Technical: “USD/JPY Technical: Torpedoed down but holding at 200-day moving average” published on 14 July 2023.

20-07-2023 21:59 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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