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Oil rally capped, Gold finds its pre-FOMC decision range, RFK Jr talks Bitcoin

EIA Report showed Cushing stockpiles declined most since October 2021 Fed rate cut bets for December 13th FOMC meeting rise to 24.0% Bitcoin bulls nervous a US ETF launch could trigger a similar Bitcoin futures collapse Oil Crude prices tentatively rose but gains were capped as Russian exports are expected to rise and as the EIA report posted disappointing demand figures. Oil was steadily rising over the past few weeks on expectations that Russia and the Saudis would keep this market tight. Ru

19-07-2023 14:44 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks rally as earnings keep supporting soft-landing hopes

Apple is reportedly committing to grow its own generative AI tools So far it has been a solid start to earnings season Odds grow for the Fed to be one and done on rates US stocks are rising as soft-landing hopes grow as the regional banks provide stabilization signs and on hopes that inflation will continue to cool. It doesn’t look like we will see a major credit crunch anytime soon and that could mean good news for the recovery that takes hold next year. Goldman Sachs delivered an earnings

19-07-2023 13:02 GMT by Edward Moya

Brent Crude - Oil edging higher again after recent positive developments

Oil turns higher after brief pullback EIA reports small draw of 0.7 million 200DMA could provide next test of resistance Oil prices have been creeping higher throughout the European session after bouncing back a little on Tuesday. Output curbs from Saudi Arabia and Russia appeared to have got things moving but it may be the better inflation data that we're seeing that has enabled it to push on after two months of consolidation. We've seen some volatility around the inventory data from EIA today

19-07-2023 12:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD extends slide, Aussie employment report next

AUD/USD continues to slide Australian employment change expected to slow on Thursday The Australian dollar is down sharply on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6774, down 0.55%. For anyone who enjoys strong volatility, look no further than the Australian dollar.

19-07-2023 10:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD - UK inflation data offers hope for the Bank of England

UK CPI falls to 7.9% from 8.7%, core CPI 6.9% from 7.1% BoE base rate seen peaking at 5.75% according to markets GBPUSD slips below 1.30 after the data The inflation in the UK is finally on the decline and in a rare show of good news, it's falling at a faster pace than expected on both the headline and core levels. We haven't been treated to many reports like this over the last couple of years, and even when we have any enthusiasm has quickly been extinguished.

19-07-2023 09:09 GMT by Craig Erlam

Sterling takes a tumble as inflation falls

UK inflation eases more than expected British pound tumbles close to 1% Pound slides as UK inflation lower than expected The British pound is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2916, down 0.92%.

19-07-2023 07:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

A bipolar world of stock market performances

US benchmark stock indices continue to maintain global leadership as its cyclical laggards are now playing catch up to the technology-related Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Telsa, Alphabet & Amazon). The laggard Dow Jones Industrial Average staged a bullish breakout from a 7-month range consolidation supported by strong performances in financials/banking stocks. China’s latest “New Consumption Plan” has failed to spark bullish sentiment in China and Hong Kong benchmark stock

19-07-2023 03:22 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD - Minutes reveal the RBA is undecided on future rate hikes

RBA undecided on future policy moves Markets expect one more hike but not sure when AUDUSD facing significant resistance despite a weaker dollar It's safe to say there's quite a balanced debate taking place at the Reserve Bank of Australia right now, with policymakers torn on whether conditions have become restrictive enough and if a little more will do more harm or good. While markets appear confident that the RBA will hike once more this year, when that will come is far less clear. And as we

18-07-2023 18:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

Dow - Nears 35,000 even as US retail sales disappoint

Retail sales numbers don't hold Wall Street back Bank earnings give investors hope 35,000 a big obstacle to overcome for the Dow Stock markets have turned positive on Tuesday after falling earlier, with US retail sales data initially weighing slightly. The numbers were much weaker than expected for June but then the May figures were revised up so it wasn't all bad.

18-07-2023 14:09 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD edges lower ahead of UK inflation

US retail sales dip, core retail sales rise UK inflation expected to fall The British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3038, down 0.27%. UK inflation expected to fall The UK is lagging behind other major economies in the fight to curb inflation.

18-07-2023 13:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Technicals and Triggers: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD

EUR/USD excessively overbought? The euro-dollar ascent was mostly a one-way move for most of July. After inflation eased to the slowest pace in more than two years, the dollar tumbled. With the Fed entering their blackout period before the July 26th FOMC meeting, the lack of hawkish pushback has allowed the dollar to remain vulnerable to further pain just ahead of the 1.1300 handle. Bullish momentum has cleared multiple hurdles but the 1.1350 level should prove to be rather strong. While th

18-07-2023 12:47 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold rises post ECB's Klot comment and Canadian CPI report

ECB's Knot (hawk) noted that for July I think it is a necessity, for anything beyond July it would at most be a possibility but by no means a certainty Canadian headline CPI was 2.8%, versus 3% expected, which should allow the BOC to keep rates on hold Global crypto market cap hovers around $1.2 trillion Oil Crude prices are steadying here on expectations that the oil market will remain tight as Russian shipments drop and as China prepares to provide more support to households.

18-07-2023 10:51 GMT by Edward Moya

Wall Street grows confident Fed will be 'One and Done' on rate hikes

Both the advance and core (ex-auto) retail sales monthly reading post third straight gain Fed rate hike odds stand at 93.6% for July 26th meeting ECB odds for a July rate hike stand at 93.2%. while September falls to 60.1% US stocks are lower after a retail sales report confirmed the US economy is still healthy and ready for another quarter-point rate rise by the Fed. It was a busy morning as Morgan Stanley posted mixed results, while Bank of America impressed. We are done with the majority

18-07-2023 10:16 GMT by Edward Moya

Canadian dollar flat ahead of CPI, US retail sales

Canada's inflation expected to ease US retail sales projected to improve The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Tuesday, trading at 1.3204. USD/CAD should show some life in the North American session, with the release of Canadian inflation and US retail sales. Will Canada's core inflation fall? Canada releases the June inflation report later today, and the Bank of Canada will be hoping for good news.

18-07-2023 07:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie shrugs after RBA minutes, US retail sales next

RBA minutes point to close call at July decision US retail sales for June expected to climb The Australian dollar has edged lower on Tuesday, trading at 0.6807, down 0.14%. We could see some further movement in the North American session when the US releases retail sales. RBA minutes point to uncertainty about the economy The RBA minutes didn't provide much in the way of insights and the Australian dollar barely showed a muted response.

18-07-2023 05:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Hang Seng Index Technical: Plummeted towards minor uptrend support

Reopened after yesterday’s closure to due typhoon, shed -2% due to negative follow-through from yesterday’s weak China economic data. Short-term minor uptrend from the 7 July 2023 low remains intact. Short-term downside momentum reached oversold condition. One of China’s proxies benchmark stock indices, the Hang Seng Index plummeted today, 18 July at the open and shed -2% intraday at this time of the writing due to a negative follow-through from yesterday’s weak China data (Q2 GDP, retail sales

18-07-2023 03:18 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD Technical: Short-term potential bullish revival

Cleared above 200-day moving average ex-post US CPI. Short-term uptrend but the medium-term trend is still sideways as it remained below a major descending trendline resistance at 0.6930. Short-term momentum, hourly RSI has turned bullish. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD Technical: Bulls rejected at 20 and 200-day moving averages ahead of US CPI” published on 12 July 2023. Click here for a recap. Above the 200-day moving average but still below a major descending tren

18-07-2023 00:16 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Gold - Edges lower after failing at $1,960 but is the recovery over?

Gold pares gains after post-inflation bounce US yields remain lower, pulling the dollar down with them Resistance levels remain above at key Fibonacci levels Gold has rotated lower over the last couple of days after previously recovering on the back of encouraging US inflation data. The decline in US yields that we've seen since the release has weighed heavily on the US dollar and given the yellow metal a real boost after having endured a pretty torrid May and June. Is the recovery sustainable

17-07-2023 16:39 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Chinese data and resumed Libyan output weigh on oil

Chinese growth underwhelms Libya resumes production after brief outage Key technical support levels still below Oil prices pulled back from last week's highs today, weighed down by the weaker Chinese figures and reports of some Libyan outages being restored. The numbers from the world's second-largest economy are almost certainly the bigger factor here especially against the backdrop of sluggish growth around the globe.

17-07-2023 16:29 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil tentatively lower on disappointing Chinese data

Goldman Sachs eyes a significant crude deficit in the second half of the year Markets price in 25% chance Fed cuts at December 13th FOMC meeting Bitcoin supporter Novogratz expects Bitcoin ETF gets done by end of year Oil Crude prices are lower as China’s economic recovery stalled and as Libya resumed production at key oil fields. Oil won’t catch a bid unless China finally unleashes meaningful stimulus that propels large parts of the economy. Little rate cuts here and there and support for p

17-07-2023 13:01 GMT by Edward Moya

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