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All about Earnings… and some US data
AAII survey shows majority of individuals bullishness hits highest levels since April 2021 Fed swaps suggest peak rate of 5.419% at November meeting (up from yesterday's 5.402%) Dow poised for a 9-day winning streak as the mega-cap tech trade cools The Dow is having its best winning streak since 2019 and what makes this so impressive is that it occurs as the AI trade appears to still be in early cycle. Market breadth seems like it wants to improve as the mega-cap tech trade takes a break. Also
20-07-2023 12:33 GMT by Edward Moya
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Brent Crude - Oil trading choppy but holding onto recent gains
Better inflation outlook helps to lift oil prices China stimulus could boost demand further 200/233-DMA a potentially big test of resistance above Oil prices have steadied after a volatile week following the breakout from its two-month range. The break came on the back of output curbs from Saudi Arabia and Russia, initially, but then better inflation data from the US, eurozone, and UK which could boost economic prospects. Since then, the price has been volatile but importantly held above previo
20-07-2023 12:25 GMT by Craig Erlam
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USD/CAD gains ground after strong US unemployment claims
US unemployment claims fall to two-month low Canada's retail sales expected to ease on Friday The Canadian dollar started the day with gains but the US dollar has rebounded after a strong unemployment claims report. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3173, up 0.07%. US jobless claims fall to 2-month low US unemployment claims fell last week to 228,000, down from 234,000 and well below the consensus estimate of 242,000.
20-07-2023 11:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Nasdaq - Tesla and Netflix tumble after reporting Q2 earnings
Tesla beats on earnings and revenues but warns margins may be cut further Netflix massively outpaces subscriber growth forecasts but share price tumbles Nasdaq slips again but record highs not too far away Stock markets are treading water on Thursday, with earnings from the US failing to stimulate further gains in early trade. Equities have performed extremely well recently as economic data has been more promising and the banks kicked off earnings season positively.
20-07-2023 10:59 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Japanese yen edges up ahead of Japanese inflation report
US employment claims expected to rise Japan's core inflation projected to tick higher BoJ's Ueda says no plans to tighten policy The Japanese yen is trading quietly on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 139.45, down 0.16%. Japan's core inflation expected to inch higher Japan releases National Core CPI for June on Friday.
20-07-2023 05:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Gold - Eyeing another move above $2,000 as inflation outlook improves?
Progress on inflation driving gold's gains UK becomes the latest to make significant improvements $2,000 a major psychological level Gold broke higher again on Tuesday after briefly paring gains late last week and early this. Lower yields and a weaker dollar are continuing to boost its appeal on the back of some more promising inflation data and lower interest rate expectations. That inflation data has been both widespread, from the US to the eurozone and now the UK, and at both the headline a
19-07-2023 17:35 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil rally capped, Gold finds its pre-FOMC decision range, RFK Jr talks Bitcoin
EIA Report showed Cushing stockpiles declined most since October 2021 Fed rate cut bets for December 13th FOMC meeting rise to 24.0% Bitcoin bulls nervous a US ETF launch could trigger a similar Bitcoin futures collapse Oil Crude prices tentatively rose but gains were capped as Russian exports are expected to rise and as the EIA report posted disappointing demand figures. Oil was steadily rising over the past few weeks on expectations that Russia and the Saudis would keep this market tight.  Ru
19-07-2023 14:44 GMT by Edward Moya
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Stocks rally as earnings keep supporting soft-landing hopes
Apple is reportedly committing to grow its own generative AI tools So far it has been a solid start to earnings season Odds grow for the Fed to be one and done on rates US stocks are rising as soft-landing hopes grow as the regional banks provide stabilization signs and on hopes that inflation will continue to cool.  It doesn’t look like we will see a major credit crunch anytime soon and that could mean good news for the recovery that takes hold next year.  Goldman Sachs delivered an earnings
19-07-2023 13:02 GMT by Edward Moya
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Brent Crude - Oil edging higher again after recent positive developments
Oil turns higher after brief pullback EIA reports small draw of 0.7 million 200DMA could provide next test of resistance Oil prices have been creeping higher throughout the European session after bouncing back a little on Tuesday. Output curbs from Saudi Arabia and Russia appeared to have got things moving but it may be the better inflation data that we're seeing that has enabled it to push on after two months of consolidation. We've seen some volatility around the inventory data from EIA today
19-07-2023 12:12 GMT by Craig Erlam
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AUD/USD extends slide, Aussie employment report next
AUD/USD continues to slide Australian employment change expected to slow on Thursday The Australian dollar is down sharply on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6774, down 0.55%. For anyone who enjoys strong volatility, look no further than the Australian dollar.
19-07-2023 10:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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GBP/USD - UK inflation data offers hope for the Bank of England
UK CPI falls to 7.9% from 8.7%, core CPI 6.9% from 7.1% BoE base rate seen peaking at 5.75% according to markets GBPUSD slips below 1.30 after the data The inflation in the UK is finally on the decline and in a rare show of good news, it's falling at a faster pace than expected on both the headline and core levels. We haven't been treated to many reports like this over the last couple of years, and even when we have any enthusiasm has quickly been extinguished.
19-07-2023 09:09 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Sterling takes a tumble as inflation falls
UK inflation eases more than expected British pound tumbles close to 1% Pound slides as UK inflation lower than expected The British pound is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2916, down 0.92%.
19-07-2023 07:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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A bipolar world of stock market performances
US benchmark stock indices continue to maintain global leadership as its cyclical laggards are now playing catch up to the technology-related Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Telsa, Alphabet & Amazon). The laggard Dow Jones Industrial Average staged a bullish breakout from a 7-month range consolidation supported by strong performances in financials/banking stocks. China’s latest “New Consumption Plan” has failed to spark bullish sentiment in China and Hong Kong benchmark stock
19-07-2023 03:22 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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AUD/USD - Minutes reveal the RBA is undecided on future rate hikes
RBA undecided on future policy moves Markets expect one more hike but not sure when AUDUSD facing significant resistance despite a weaker dollar It's safe to say there's quite a balanced debate taking place at the Reserve Bank of Australia right now, with policymakers torn on whether conditions have become restrictive enough and if a little more will do more harm or good. While markets appear confident that the RBA will hike once more this year, when that will come is far less clear. And as we
18-07-2023 18:13 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Dow - Nears 35,000 even as US retail sales disappoint
Retail sales numbers don't hold Wall Street back Bank earnings give investors hope 35,000 a big obstacle to overcome for the Dow Stock markets have turned positive on Tuesday after falling earlier, with US retail sales data initially weighing slightly. The numbers were much weaker than expected for June but then the May figures were revised up so it wasn't all bad.
18-07-2023 14:09 GMT by Craig Erlam
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GBP/USD edges lower ahead of UK inflation
US retail sales dip, core retail sales rise UK inflation expected to fall The British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3038, down 0.27%. UK inflation expected to fall The UK is lagging behind other major economies in the fight to curb inflation.
18-07-2023 13:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Technicals and Triggers: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD
EUR/USD excessively overbought? The euro-dollar ascent was mostly a one-way move for most of July.  After inflation eased to the slowest pace in more than two years, the dollar tumbled.  With the Fed entering their blackout period before the July 26th FOMC meeting, the lack of hawkish pushback has allowed the dollar to remain vulnerable to further pain just ahead of the 1.1300 handle.  Bullish momentum has cleared multiple hurdles but the 1.1350 level should prove to be rather strong. While th
18-07-2023 12:47 GMT by Edward Moya
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