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EUR/USD - Euro sinks as ECB signals a September pause is possible

ECB hikes rates by 25 basis points Signals the central bank may pause at the next meeting in September Euro slides as eurozone yields fall The ECB raised rates for potentially the final time in the tightening cycle on Thursday, although it refused to give any indication of what will happen going forward. Instead, the central bank is insisting that decisions will be guided by the economic data and that interest rates will need to remain sufficiently restrictive for some time.

27-07-2023 10:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY Technical: Bulls rejected at 20-day moving average

The 20-day moving average has capped further upside in the USD/JPY so far since last Friday, 21 July. BoJ will release its monetary policy decision and latest quarterly outlook report tomorrow, 28 July. The consensus is an upgrade for its FY2023 consumer inflation forecast to be above 2% while maintaining the upper limit of the YCC at 0.50%. Recent minor downtrend phase from 21 July 2023 high of 141.95 to today, current intraday low of 139.38 may see a retracement. Key resistance zone at 140.70/

27-07-2023 05:59 GMT by Kelvin Wong

China equities maintain short-term bullish momentum ex-post Politburo and FOMC

The press release of the recently concluded China’s Politburo meeting consisted of a more expansionary tone such as the implementation of “counter-cyclical” measures. A dovish tilt is now being priced in by interest rates futures after yesterday’s FOMC meeting. Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the odds have increased to bring forward the expected first Fed Funds rate cut to March 2024 from May/June 2024.

27-07-2023 01:47 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - Fed tries to keep door open for more rate hikes

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the FOMC decision, preview the ECB, and recap mega-cap tech earnings.

26-07-2023 17:14 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil rally stalls as demand softens, Gold rises post Fed

EIA Report: stockpiles dropped 600K vs -2.12M eyed Crude production falls to 12.2 million bpd (lower boundaries of this year's range) Gold struggles as Fed leaves door open for more hikes Oil Crude prices softened after the EIA crude oil inventory report stockpiles fell less-than-expected as surging gasoline prices weighed on demand. Gas is almost over 10 cents a gallon according to AAA and that rising trend might continue going to the end of summer. Crude exports also rose above the 4 milli

26-07-2023 15:29 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar slips as the Fed is most likely done

Fed swaps show only an 18% chance of a hike in September (under 50% for November) FOMC to take data-dependent approach on future hikes Fed no longer forecasting a recession The dollar declined as US stocks embraced a patient Fed Chair Powell that will remain dependent with the next two inflation reports before committing to what they will do in September. The Fed is probably done raising rates and that is keeping soft landing hopes alive. Fed Decision The Fed raised rates by a quarter-percent

26-07-2023 15:17 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD - Will the Fed deliver a dovish final hike or add a hawkish twist?

Fed and ECB will have a big role to play in EURUSD moves over the next 24 hours Will both offer a final dovish hike and emphasize data dependency? EURUSD faces a big test around 1.10 after breaking out earlier this month EURUSD is trading a little choppy over the last couple of days with traders clearly heavily focused on the outcome of the Fed and ECB meetings. In both cases, a 25 basis point rate hike is heavily backed in the markets, but at the same time, the language that accompanies the de

26-07-2023 11:41 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD quiet ahead of Fed decision

The euro is showing limited movement for a second consecutive day. In Wednesday's European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1063, up 0.07%. Is the Fed "one and done"? The Federal Reserve meets later today, and it's close to a certainty that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25%, which would bring the Fed Funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

26-07-2023 11:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY softens as yen hedges surge ahead of BOJ

Rate cut odds for the December FOMC meeting now stands at 15.1% vs 16% yesterday Protection against yen strength rises to a four-month high Bearish tones emerging for USD/JPY as top Ichimoku cloud tested The Japanese yen is catching modest bids here as stocks soften on Microsoft’s disappointing AI outlook and as pressure builds for the BOJ to tighten. Microsoft’s results were adequate, but that won’t be enough to keep the mega-cap tech/AI trade going. Profit taking will likely remain the

26-07-2023 10:03 GMT by Edward Moya

Japanese yen extends gains, Fed rate decision looms

The Japanese yen is showing some strength this week and has gained 1.1%, rebounding from the previous week's plunge of 2.2%. In Wednesday's European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.23, down 0.49%. Spotlight on Fed, BoJ meetings The US and Japanese central banks will be on center stage this week, with the Fed meeting later on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates today by 0.25%, which would bring the Fed Funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

26-07-2023 08:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie slips as inflation falls, Fed expected to hike

Australian inflation falls more than expected Fed widely expected to raise rates by 0.25% on Wednesday The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6758, down 0.49%.

26-07-2023 05:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

FOMC day, look out for Fed Chair Powell’s view on inflationary expectations

Current slowdown in inflationary growth has led to lower odds of another Fed Funds rate hike after today’s FOMC. Inflationary expectations measured by US breakeven inflation rates have started to tick higher since the end of May, in line with the 19% rally seen in WTI crude oil futures. If rising inflationary expectations are left unchecked, it may spiral into the real economy with a potential upside reversal in the lagging CPI data in the coming months. The US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting will

26-07-2023 02:58 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Canadian dollar struggles to rise alongside oil

USD/CAD little changed ahead of FOMC decision Canadian dollar was fourth-worst performer in the Group-of-10 currencies. Oil rallies on improved global outlook and Chinese stimulus Gold awaits the Fed decision Commodities and some commodity currencies caught a bid after China policymakers signaled more stimulus would soon help their struggling recovery, but that didn't help the Canadian dollar. Canada's largest export has seen oil prices catch a bid over the past month, while the loonie has

25-07-2023 15:25 GMT by Edward Moya

FTSE - China Stimulus Promise, Unilever Rallies After Results, Fed and ECB eyed

Chinese stimulus hopes fails to lift the FTSE Unilever among best performers in the index after reporting earnings UK100 not far from all-time highs It's been another relatively flat session for equity markets, with investors seemingly having one eye on the Fed and ECB later in the week despite a strong showing in Chinese stocks earlier in the day. They were lifted by the promise of Chinese stimulus following the Politburo meeting this week and some potential relief for property market.

25-07-2023 12:46 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD jumps ahead of Australian inflation

Australian inflation expected to slow in Q2 US consumer confidence jumps AUD/USD rises sharply The Australian dollar has gained ground on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6783, up 0.65%. Australian inflation expected to decelerate Australia releases the second-quarter inflation report on Wednesday.

25-07-2023 11:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Technical and Triggers: FOMC/Earnings Playbook for Nasdaq, USD/JPY, & NZD/USD

Earnings give stocks one last boost before the FOMC decision Consumer Confidence surges to a 2-year high Dow eyes longest winning streak in six years Volatility should be elevated this week as we have a key FOMC meeting and peak earnings season. So far, the trade has been for the money flow to continue go into small stocks, with some lowering their exposure to mega-cap tech trade. This earnings week has the potential to drive the recession-based pullback that seems to have evaded us this year

25-07-2023 10:59 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro extends losses as German business confidence declines

The euro continues to lose ground and is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1036, down 0.26%. German Ifo Business Climate dips Germany continues to post soft numbers this week, pointing to weakness in the eurozone's largest economy.

25-07-2023 09:44 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen shrugs as BoJ Core CPI ticks lower

The Japanese yen has taken traders on a roller-coaster ride for much of July, but the yen has been calm so far this week. In Tuesday's European session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.36, down 0.08% on the day. BoJ's inflation gauge dips to 3.0% The Bank of Japan's preferred inflation indicator, BoJ Core CPI, ticked lower to 3.0% in June, down from 3.1% in May and matched the consensus estimate.

25-07-2023 06:32 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Technical: Holding above 50-day moving average

Medium-term uptrend of Gold (XAU/USD) remains intact. Its recent slide of -1.7% from the 20 July 2023 high of US$1,987.53 has pull-backed close to its 50-day moving average. Short-term elements suggest a potential bullish reversal for Gold (XAU/USD) with key support at US$1,939. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Resilient gold is supported by geopolitical risk” published on 11 July 2023. Click here for a recap. Gold (XAU/USD) has staged the bullish breakout above US$1,940 and

25-07-2023 06:12 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD Technical: Rebounded right at 200-day moving average

AUD is the biggest gainer (+0.22%) against the USD in today’s Asian morning session. The current rebound of the AUD/USD has taken shape right at the key 200-day moving now acting as support at 0.6700. Intermediate resistance for the AUD/USD stands at 0.6835. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD Technical: Short-term bullish revival” published on 18 July 2023.

24-07-2023 22:40 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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