The Japanese yen has bounced back on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.27, down 0.40%.
24-07-2023 05:11 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
All news & analysis
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US
The Fed is expected to resume raising rates at the July 26th FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures see a 96% chance that the central bank will deliver a quarter-point rate rise, bringing the target range to between 5.25% and 5.50%, almost a 22-year high. The Fed delivered 10 straight rate increases and then paused at the June FOMC meeting. The Fed is going to raise rates on Wednesday and seems poised to be noncommittal with what they will do in September. The economic data has been mixed (str
21-07-2023 14:00 GMT
by Edward Moya
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the drop in the yen after a YCC report, recap some of this week's big macro themes and talk commodities.
21-07-2023 12:47 GMT
by Edward Moya
Commodities are starting to post some diverging trends as US soft landing hopes improve. Oil has benefited from a resilient US economy, but gold has struggled as a tight labor market suggests the Fed may need to keep interest rates higher for longer. A recent Bloomberg survey noted that firmer growth prospects are expected through Q3, potentially rising 0.5%. The outlook for Q4 is GDP to contract 0.4%.
Oil
Oil prices are rising on optimism that the outlooks for China and India should keep the
21-07-2023 12:40 GMT
by Edward Moya
USD/JPY Yen dives on reports BOJ sees little need to adjust YCC
Central bank-a-palooza was supposed to start next week, but traders got a head start after reports surfaced that the BOJ saw little urgency to adjust their yield curve control program (YCC). It looks like FX traders are expecting the BOJ to maintain their ultra-loose monetary policy and for the Fed to deliver a quarter-point rate rise and to have a wait-and-see approach about the September meeting. The Japanese yen is the we
21-07-2023 10:15 GMT
by Edward Moya
UK retail sales rise in May
Former Fed Chair Bernanke says Fed hikes could be done after July
The British pound is in negative territory on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2824, down 0.34%.
21-07-2023 08:22 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Canada's retail sales expected to slow
Former Chair Bernanke says the July hike may be the last increase
The Canadian dollar is trading quietly on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3157, down 0.09%.
It has been a busy week in the currency markets, with the US dollar rebounding and posting strong gains against the major currencies.
21-07-2023 07:11 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Japan's core inflation rises in June
USD/JPY jumps over 1%
The US dollar continues to rally as the Japanese yen is down for a fourth straight day. In Friday's European session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.93, up 1.33%.
The yen has taken investors on a roller-coaster ride.
21-07-2023 04:48 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Major downtrend phase from the 7 March 2022 swing high has evolved into a potential bullish reversal “Descending Wedge” configuration.
US$77.30 is the key intermediate resistance (200-day moving average & upper boundary of “Descending Wedge”).
Key short-term support rests at US$72.20, also the 50-day moving average.
Since its 7 Nov 2020 medium-term swing high of US$94.11 per barrel, the price actions of West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) have been oscillating within an 8-month bu
21-07-2023 03:49 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
The +326 pips rebound seen in the USD/JPY from the 14 July 2023 low of 137.24 has reached a minor key inflection point.
Short-term momentum (hourly RSI) has turned bearish.
60 is the key short-term resistance to watch.
This is a follow-up on our prior analysis “USD/JPY Technical: “USD/JPY Technical: Torpedoed down but holding at 200-day moving average” published on 14 July 2023.
20-07-2023 21:59 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
US sanctions Russian oil service companies and First deputy energy minister Sorokin
WTI Crude open interest plunges to lowest levels since January
Gold tumbles after reaching a two-month high
Oil
Crude prices are drifting higher on what is a very slow news day for crude. Yesterday's declining stockpile data and weak demand stats didn't help oil extend its recent rally.
20-07-2023 14:44 GMT
by Edward Moya
AAII survey shows majority of individuals bullishness hits highest levels since April 2021
Fed swaps suggest peak rate of 5.419% at November meeting (up from yesterday's 5.402%)
Dow poised for a 9-day winning streak as the mega-cap tech trade cools
The Dow is having its best winning streak since 2019 and what makes this so impressive is that it occurs as the AI trade appears to still be in early cycle. Market breadth seems like it wants to improve as the mega-cap tech trade takes a break. Also
20-07-2023 12:33 GMT
by Edward Moya
Better inflation outlook helps to lift oil prices
China stimulus could boost demand further
200/233-DMA a potentially big test of resistance above
Oil prices have steadied after a volatile week following the breakout from its two-month range.
The break came on the back of output curbs from Saudi Arabia and Russia, initially, but then better inflation data from the US, eurozone, and UK which could boost economic prospects.
Since then, the price has been volatile but importantly held above previo
20-07-2023 12:25 GMT
by Craig Erlam
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the latest moves in GBPUSD on the back of the latest UK inflation report and what it all means for BoE interest rates.
20-07-2023 11:46 GMT
by Craig Erlam
US unemployment claims fall to two-month low
Canada's retail sales expected to ease on Friday
The Canadian dollar started the day with gains but the US dollar has rebounded after a strong unemployment claims report. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3173, up 0.07%.
US jobless claims fall to 2-month low
US unemployment claims fell last week to 228,000, down from 234,000 and well below the consensus estimate of 242,000.
20-07-2023 11:16 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Tesla beats on earnings and revenues but warns margins may be cut further
Netflix massively outpaces subscriber growth forecasts but share price tumbles
Nasdaq slips again but record highs not too far away
Stock markets are treading water on Thursday, with earnings from the US failing to stimulate further gains in early trade.
Equities have performed extremely well recently as economic data has been more promising and the banks kicked off earnings season positively.
20-07-2023 10:59 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Australian job growth beats expectations
AUD/USD rises
The Australian dollar has climbed on Thursday, courtesy of a strong employment report for June. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6812, up 0.63%.
20-07-2023 10:19 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
US employment claims expected to rise
Japan's core inflation projected to tick higher
BoJ's Ueda says no plans to tighten policy
The Japanese yen is trading quietly on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 139.45, down 0.16%.
Japan's core inflation expected to inch higher
Japan releases National Core CPI for June on Friday.
20-07-2023 05:14 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Progress on inflation driving gold's gains
UK becomes the latest to make significant improvements
$2,000 a major psychological level
Gold broke higher again on Tuesday after briefly paring gains late last week and early this.
Lower yields and a weaker dollar are continuing to boost its appeal on the back of some more promising inflation data and lower interest rate expectations.
That inflation data has been both widespread, from the US to the eurozone and now the UK, and at both the headline a
19-07-2023 17:35 GMT
by Craig Erlam
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the market's response to UK inflation data and how earnings are impacting US stocks.
19-07-2023 17:06 GMT
by Craig Erlam