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USD/JPY softens as yen hedges surge ahead of BOJ

Rate cut odds for the December FOMC meeting now stands at 15.1% vs 16% yesterday Protection against yen strength rises to a four-month high Bearish tones emerging for USD/JPY as top Ichimoku cloud tested The Japanese yen is catching modest bids here as stocks soften on Microsoft’s disappointing AI outlook and as pressure builds for the BOJ to tighten. Microsoft’s results were adequate, but that won’t be enough to keep the mega-cap tech/AI trade going. Profit taking will likely remain the

26-07-2023 10:03 GMT by Edward Moya

Japanese yen extends gains, Fed rate decision looms

The Japanese yen is showing some strength this week and has gained 1.1%, rebounding from the previous week's plunge of 2.2%. In Wednesday's European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.23, down 0.49%. Spotlight on Fed, BoJ meetings The US and Japanese central banks will be on center stage this week, with the Fed meeting later on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates today by 0.25%, which would bring the Fed Funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

26-07-2023 08:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie slips as inflation falls, Fed expected to hike

Australian inflation falls more than expected Fed widely expected to raise rates by 0.25% on Wednesday The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6758, down 0.49%.

26-07-2023 05:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

FOMC day, look out for Fed Chair Powell’s view on inflationary expectations

Current slowdown in inflationary growth has led to lower odds of another Fed Funds rate hike after today’s FOMC. Inflationary expectations measured by US breakeven inflation rates have started to tick higher since the end of May, in line with the 19% rally seen in WTI crude oil futures. If rising inflationary expectations are left unchecked, it may spiral into the real economy with a potential upside reversal in the lagging CPI data in the coming months. The US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting will

26-07-2023 02:58 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Canadian dollar struggles to rise alongside oil

USD/CAD little changed ahead of FOMC decision Canadian dollar was fourth-worst performer in the Group-of-10 currencies. Oil rallies on improved global outlook and Chinese stimulus Gold awaits the Fed decision Commodities and some commodity currencies caught a bid after China policymakers signaled more stimulus would soon help their struggling recovery, but that didn't help the Canadian dollar. Canada's largest export has seen oil prices catch a bid over the past month, while the loonie has

25-07-2023 15:25 GMT by Edward Moya

FTSE - China Stimulus Promise, Unilever Rallies After Results, Fed and ECB eyed

Chinese stimulus hopes fails to lift the FTSE Unilever among best performers in the index after reporting earnings UK100 not far from all-time highs It's been another relatively flat session for equity markets, with investors seemingly having one eye on the Fed and ECB later in the week despite a strong showing in Chinese stocks earlier in the day. They were lifted by the promise of Chinese stimulus following the Politburo meeting this week and some potential relief for property market.

25-07-2023 12:46 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD jumps ahead of Australian inflation

Australian inflation expected to slow in Q2 US consumer confidence jumps AUD/USD rises sharply The Australian dollar has gained ground on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6783, up 0.65%. Australian inflation expected to decelerate Australia releases the second-quarter inflation report on Wednesday.

25-07-2023 11:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Technical and Triggers: FOMC/Earnings Playbook for Nasdaq, USD/JPY, & NZD/USD

Earnings give stocks one last boost before the FOMC decision Consumer Confidence surges to a 2-year high Dow eyes longest winning streak in six years Volatility should be elevated this week as we have a key FOMC meeting and peak earnings season. So far, the trade has been for the money flow to continue go into small stocks, with some lowering their exposure to mega-cap tech trade. This earnings week has the potential to drive the recession-based pullback that seems to have evaded us this year

25-07-2023 10:59 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro extends losses as German business confidence declines

The euro continues to lose ground and is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1036, down 0.26%. German Ifo Business Climate dips Germany continues to post soft numbers this week, pointing to weakness in the eurozone's largest economy.

25-07-2023 09:44 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen shrugs as BoJ Core CPI ticks lower

The Japanese yen has taken traders on a roller-coaster ride for much of July, but the yen has been calm so far this week. In Tuesday's European session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.36, down 0.08% on the day. BoJ's inflation gauge dips to 3.0% The Bank of Japan's preferred inflation indicator, BoJ Core CPI, ticked lower to 3.0% in June, down from 3.1% in May and matched the consensus estimate.

25-07-2023 06:32 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Technical: Holding above 50-day moving average

Medium-term uptrend of Gold (XAU/USD) remains intact. Its recent slide of -1.7% from the 20 July 2023 high of US$1,987.53 has pull-backed close to its 50-day moving average. Short-term elements suggest a potential bullish reversal for Gold (XAU/USD) with key support at US$1,939. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Resilient gold is supported by geopolitical risk” published on 11 July 2023. Click here for a recap. Gold (XAU/USD) has staged the bullish breakout above US$1,940 and

25-07-2023 06:12 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD Technical: Rebounded right at 200-day moving average

AUD is the biggest gainer (+0.22%) against the USD in today’s Asian morning session. The current rebound of the AUD/USD has taken shape right at the key 200-day moving now acting as support at 0.6700. Intermediate resistance for the AUD/USD stands at 0.6835. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD Technical: Short-term bullish revival” published on 18 July 2023.

24-07-2023 22:40 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil reaches 3-month high, Gold and Bitcoin edge lower

Oil Crude prices are tentatively breaking out as expectations remain for the oil market to remain tight despite all global weakness that is emerging. The rally in crude oil is impressive as it occurs as Europe is looking very weak right now, the US is slowing down, and China’s Politburo isn’t expected to unveil major stimulus this week. Oil is also getting a boost from Wall Street as optimism grows the end of the Fed’s rate hiking campaign appears it could be here. With Europe lagging by a c

24-07-2023 14:29 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold - Paring gains ahead of the Fed

Fed could be the next big catalyst as markets prepare for one more hike A break of $2,000 could be a bullish development Gold appears to be pausing for breath ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Economic data recently has given the yellow metal a big lift, with the price coming close to testing $2,000 at one stage last week.

24-07-2023 12:15 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Oil testing the 200DMA for the first time since last summer

A new three-month high Can Brent break the 200-day SMA? Oil prices are trending higher again on Monday, building on the surge late last week and reaching their highest level in three months. There have been a number of factors that have contributed to the gains recently, starting with the Saudi extension to its million barrel cut alongside Russia's export reduction followed by data that could enable a soft landing in countries that are aggressively raising rates.

24-07-2023 12:11 GMT by Craig Erlam

Nasdaq - Caution ahead of major central bank meetings, weaker PMIs

Fed, ECB and BoJ all meet this week Weak PMIs point to further cooling in the economy NAS100 nears channel lows Equity markets are treading water at the start of what is going to be a very lively week. There are some huge central bank meetings this week, the most notable naturally being the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Interest rates are finally at or very close to their peaks and this week could see the Fed and ECB announce the last rate hike in their tightening cycles. And a look at the PMI

24-07-2023 12:07 GMT by Craig Erlam

British pound extends losses after soft UK PMIs

British pound extends losses UK manufacturing and services PMIs decline in July The British pound continues to lose ground. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2822, down 0.23%.

24-07-2023 11:51 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD and USD/JPY in focus post flash PMIs; Bitcoin falls below $29.5k

It was surprisingly a busy weekend as Spain delivered a close national election, Barbie showed us the economy is still partying, Chevron reported impressive earnings, and as expectations turn downbeat for China to deliver significant stimulus this week. Despite all the headlines, overnight both S&P 500 futures and the dollar were mostly little changed until the release of the flash PMIs. EUR/USD tumbles after weak eurozone PMI data The euro declined below the 1.1120 level against the dollar aft

24-07-2023 10:31 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD under pressure after soft PMIs

The euro has started the week in negative territory. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1083, down 0.38%.

24-07-2023 10:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Bullish exhaustion sighted

Last week, Nasdaq 100 underperformed against the other major US stock indices. Nasdaq 100 failed to have a weekly close above 15,690 key medium-term resistance and ended with a weekly bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern. Key near-term support will be at 15,270 (20-day moving average). Last week, the year-to-date highly flying technology-concentrated Nasdaq 100 underperformed with a weekly loss of -0.90% versus weekly gains seen in other major US stock indices; S&P 500 (+0.69%), Dow Jone

24-07-2023 07:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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