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Nikkei 225 Technical: On the verge of a potential multi-week corrective decline

Yesterday’s daily “Shooting Star” candlestick coupled with today’s long-body daily bearish candle increases the odds of a bearish breakdown below the 50-day moving average. Ongoing minor decline from the 1 August high of 33,490 high has reached an oversold condition, an imminent minor bounce may occur first before a potential new down leg. Key short-term resistance will be at 33,490. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nikkei 225 Technical: Potential bullish reversal” published o

02-08-2023 03:21 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD and Commodities decline as Dollar rally resumes

Traders push back RBA rate hike bets until November WTI and Brent crude implied volatility falls to lowest since 2020 Turkey unloads significant portion of gold holdings The Australian dollar tumbled after the RBA kept rates on hold again and signaled they might be done tightening. Given most economists expected a hike, aussie-dollar was ripe for a plunge. US dollar strength also supported the decline after the Treasury increased their net borrowing estimate. Oil The oil price rally is re

01-08-2023 15:01 GMT by Edward Moya

USD pares gains after data suggest wage pressures are softening

Dollar rises to three-week high (low for euro) as labor market cools Atlanta's GDPNow index rises to 3.87%, up from 3.55% Manufacturing contracts for a ninth straight month The US dollar pared some its earlier gains after the JOLTS and ISM manufacturing employment component supported a Fed skip in September, possibly confirming hopes that they could be done tightening. The dollar was rallying against the euro as equities tumbled over mixed earnings and over concerns the US soft landing needs t

01-08-2023 12:13 GMT by Edward Moya

NZ dollar slides as Chinese Mfg. PMI declines

NZD/USD is down 1% China's Caixin Mfg. PMI contracted in July The New Zealand dollar continues to show sharp volatility early in the week.

01-08-2023 10:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen extends losses against dollar

The Japanese yen continues to slide and is down 1.41% this week. In Tuesday's European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.16, up 0.64%. Dollar/yen powers above 143 The yen continues to lose ground against the US dollar.

01-08-2023 08:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar takes a tumble as RBA pauses

RBA pauses rates Australian dollar slides 1.3% ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to remain in negative territory The Australian dollar continues to swing wildly this week. In Tuesday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6630, down 1.30%.

01-08-2023 06:12 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

A “data-dependent” RBA does not bode well for Aussie bulls

Australia's central bank, RBA has kept its policy cash rate unchanged at 4.1% for the second consecutive month. The tonality of the latest monetary policy implies that RBA is now data-dependent, and indirectly acknowledged the negative adverse lagged effects of higher interest rates towards economic growth. Overall, RBA may continue to remain on hold on its policy cash rate at 4.1% for the rest of 2023 which in turn negates any potential major bullish movement of the AUD/USD. Expectations of in

01-08-2023 02:26 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD Technical: Hovering below the 200-day moving average as RBA looms

AUD underperformed among the major currencies against the USD from 27 to 28 July 2023 ex-post FOMC, ECB, and BoJ. Split view among economists and interest rates traders on RBA monetary policy decision today. Short-term bearish downside momentum at this juncture as the AUD/USD failed to trade above the 200-day moving average. Key short-term resistance on AUD/USD is at 0.6740. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD Technical: Rebounded right at 200-day moving average” publishe

31-07-2023 23:01 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil and loonie flying high together again

Oil poised for best monthly performance since early 2022 Net-long positions in WTI rise to highest levels in 3 months Goldman says global oil demand has surpassed peak set just before COVID-19 USD/CAD Canadian dollar Oil and the loonie are flying high again as global growth prospects improve and on optimism the Fed is done tightening. The Canadian dollar was weakening last week on fears that the BOC's tightening cycle is starting to weigh on the economy. That outlook might change if China

31-07-2023 13:27 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar wavers ahead of SLOOS

Eurozone Q2 GDP returned to growth with a 0.3% advance reading (prior revised higher to 0.0%). Eurozone core inflation held steady at 5.3% Stocks have a flat session as traders await NFP Friday US stocks are wavering ahead of a key Fed survey that should show loan growth is weakening and that the economy should steadily weaken. The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) will tell us how top lending officers feel about the credit outlook. The US dollar isn’t making any major moves as Wall

31-07-2023 13:16 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro shrugs as eurozone GDP, core CPI accelerate

Eurozone core inflation surprises on the upside Eurozone GDP accelerates to 0.3% The euro is showing little movement on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1023, up 0.06%. It has been a wild ride for the euro over the past two weeks.

31-07-2023 11:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen slides to 3-week low vs dollar as BoJ buys JGBs

BoJ announces JGB purchases Japanese yen's slide continues The Japanese yen has extended its slide on Monday and is trading at 142.22, down 0.75% against the US dollar. BoJ surprises with JGB purchases The Japanese yen continues to show sharp volatility, which can be attributed directly to moves by the Bank of Japan. On Friday, the BoJ caught the markets by surprise and loosened its yield curve control policy.

31-07-2023 10:35 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD rebounds on stronger inflation release

Australian MI Inflation gauge jumps 0.8% AUD/USD climbs 0.80% RBA expected to pause rates on Tuesday The Australian dollar has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6708, up 0.91%.

31-07-2023 06:38 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP Technical: Recent downside momentum subsided

The 4-hour RSI oscillator has traced out a bullish divergence condition at its oversold region. A break above the 50-day moving average now acts as a 0.8600 intermediate resistance may rekindle another leg of short-term rebound for EUR/GBP. The next resistance stands at 0.8720 which is also the 200-day moving average. The recent 157 pips slide seen on the EUR/GBP cross pair from its 0.8701 high printed on 19 July 2023 to 27 July 2023 intraday low of 0.8544 has managed to find support at the fo

31-07-2023 05:48 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Hang Seng Index Technical: Risk of a minor pull-back after bullish breakout

Price actions staged a bullish breakout from a three-month descending range. Daily MACD trend indicator rose to a five-month high reading above the zero centreline which reinforces a medium-term uptrend condition of the Hang Seng Index. In the shorter term, a minor pull-back cannot be ruled out due to an extremely overbought reading seen in the hourly RSI oscillator. Key short-term support to watch will be at 19,700. One of China’s proxies benchmark stock indices, the Hang Seng Index staged a b

31-07-2023 00:46 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Week Ahead - BoE to keep hiking, US jobs and eurozone inflation eyed

With inflation steadily cooling, the Fed’s historic tightening campaign appears to be ending. The focus on Wall Street won’t just be inflation but now also economic activity. The upcoming week will be filled with several economic readings. On Monday, we will see two Fed regional surveys. The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to slightly improve while the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity report remains deeply in negative territory.

28-07-2023 15:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Podcast - Has the ECB hiked rates for the last time?

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the ECB rate decision and the latest data from the US.

28-07-2023 09:01 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD rebounds after sharp losses

EUR/USD rebounds after 1% fall on Thursday US GDP for Q1 beats expectations The euro has bounced back on Friday after sliding 0.99% a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1018, up 0.38%.

28-07-2023 08:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar flat ahead of Canadian GDP

Canada's GDP expected to rebound in May US releases PCE index The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.3223 in the European session. Things could get busier for the Canadian dollar in the North American session, as Canada releases GDP and the US publishes its preferred inflation indicator, the PCE Price index. Canada's GDP expected to improve in May Canada's economy stalled in April, as GDP came in at 0.0% m/m.

28-07-2023 06:53 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen goes on a wild ride after BoJ shocker

The Japanese yen took investors on a wild ride on Friday but has settled down. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 139.54, up 0.05%. Yen swings wildly after BoJ tweaks yield curve control The Bank of Japan appears to relish catching the markets with its pants down, and I'll be the first to admit that I was shocked to read that the BoJ had made a shift in policy at today's policy meeting.

28-07-2023 05:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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