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AUD/USD rebounds on stronger inflation release

Australian MI Inflation gauge jumps 0.8% AUD/USD climbs 0.80% RBA expected to pause rates on Tuesday The Australian dollar has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6708, up 0.91%.

31-07-2023 06:38 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP Technical: Recent downside momentum subsided

The 4-hour RSI oscillator has traced out a bullish divergence condition at its oversold region. A break above the 50-day moving average now acts as a 0.8600 intermediate resistance may rekindle another leg of short-term rebound for EUR/GBP. The next resistance stands at 0.8720 which is also the 200-day moving average. The recent 157 pips slide seen on the EUR/GBP cross pair from its 0.8701 high printed on 19 July 2023 to 27 July 2023 intraday low of 0.8544 has managed to find support at the fo

31-07-2023 05:48 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Hang Seng Index Technical: Risk of a minor pull-back after bullish breakout

Price actions staged a bullish breakout from a three-month descending range. Daily MACD trend indicator rose to a five-month high reading above the zero centreline which reinforces a medium-term uptrend condition of the Hang Seng Index. In the shorter term, a minor pull-back cannot be ruled out due to an extremely overbought reading seen in the hourly RSI oscillator. Key short-term support to watch will be at 19,700. One of China’s proxies benchmark stock indices, the Hang Seng Index staged a b

31-07-2023 00:46 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Week Ahead - BoE to keep hiking, US jobs and eurozone inflation eyed

With inflation steadily cooling, the Fed’s historic tightening campaign appears to be ending. The focus on Wall Street won’t just be inflation but now also economic activity. The upcoming week will be filled with several economic readings. On Monday, we will see two Fed regional surveys. The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to slightly improve while the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity report remains deeply in negative territory.

28-07-2023 15:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Podcast - Has the ECB hiked rates for the last time?

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the ECB rate decision and the latest data from the US.

28-07-2023 09:01 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD rebounds after sharp losses

EUR/USD rebounds after 1% fall on Thursday US GDP for Q1 beats expectations The euro has bounced back on Friday after sliding 0.99% a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1018, up 0.38%.

28-07-2023 08:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar flat ahead of Canadian GDP

Canada's GDP expected to rebound in May US releases PCE index The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.3223 in the European session. Things could get busier for the Canadian dollar in the North American session, as Canada releases GDP and the US publishes its preferred inflation indicator, the PCE Price index. Canada's GDP expected to improve in May Canada's economy stalled in April, as GDP came in at 0.0% m/m.

28-07-2023 06:53 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen goes on a wild ride after BoJ shocker

The Japanese yen took investors on a wild ride on Friday but has settled down. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 139.54, up 0.05%. Yen swings wildly after BoJ tweaks yield curve control The Bank of Japan appears to relish catching the markets with its pants down, and I'll be the first to admit that I was shocked to read that the BoJ had made a shift in policy at today's policy meeting.

28-07-2023 05:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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Video - Gold steadies after Fed interest rate decision

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the latest moves in gold on the back of the Fed's interest rate hike.

28-07-2023 05:16 GMT by Craig Erlam

No major risk-off after BoJ’s creative YCC flexibility tweak

Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy but issued a lukewarm hawkish statement to introduce a “flexible” Yield Curve Control programme on the 10-year JGB yield. JPY strengthen but did not lead to a sell-off in other Asian benchmark stock indices. Nikkei 225 has managed to trim its intraday loss of -2.60% and ended with a smaller magnitude of -0.4%. Japanese banks outperformed; the TOPIX-17 Banks ETF rallied by +4.70%. The new YCC with “greater flexibility” may reduce specul

28-07-2023 04:48 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/USD - Euro sinks as ECB signals a September pause is possible

ECB hikes rates by 25 basis points Signals the central bank may pause at the next meeting in September Euro slides as eurozone yields fall The ECB raised rates for potentially the final time in the tightening cycle on Thursday, although it refused to give any indication of what will happen going forward. Instead, the central bank is insisting that decisions will be guided by the economic data and that interest rates will need to remain sufficiently restrictive for some time.

27-07-2023 10:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY Technical: Bulls rejected at 20-day moving average

The 20-day moving average has capped further upside in the USD/JPY so far since last Friday, 21 July. BoJ will release its monetary policy decision and latest quarterly outlook report tomorrow, 28 July. The consensus is an upgrade for its FY2023 consumer inflation forecast to be above 2% while maintaining the upper limit of the YCC at 0.50%. Recent minor downtrend phase from 21 July 2023 high of 141.95 to today, current intraday low of 139.38 may see a retracement. Key resistance zone at 140.70/

27-07-2023 05:59 GMT by Kelvin Wong

China equities maintain short-term bullish momentum ex-post Politburo and FOMC

The press release of the recently concluded China’s Politburo meeting consisted of a more expansionary tone such as the implementation of “counter-cyclical” measures. A dovish tilt is now being priced in by interest rates futures after yesterday’s FOMC meeting. Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the odds have increased to bring forward the expected first Fed Funds rate cut to March 2024 from May/June 2024.

27-07-2023 01:47 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - Fed tries to keep door open for more rate hikes

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the FOMC decision, preview the ECB, and recap mega-cap tech earnings.

26-07-2023 17:14 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil rally stalls as demand softens, Gold rises post Fed

EIA Report: stockpiles dropped 600K vs -2.12M eyed Crude production falls to 12.2 million bpd (lower boundaries of this year's range) Gold struggles as Fed leaves door open for more hikes Oil Crude prices softened after the EIA crude oil inventory report stockpiles fell less-than-expected as surging gasoline prices weighed on demand. Gas is almost over 10 cents a gallon according to AAA and that rising trend might continue going to the end of summer. Crude exports also rose above the 4 milli

26-07-2023 15:29 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar slips as the Fed is most likely done

Fed swaps show only an 18% chance of a hike in September (under 50% for November) FOMC to take data-dependent approach on future hikes Fed no longer forecasting a recession The dollar declined as US stocks embraced a patient Fed Chair Powell that will remain dependent with the next two inflation reports before committing to what they will do in September. The Fed is probably done raising rates and that is keeping soft landing hopes alive. Fed Decision The Fed raised rates by a quarter-percent

26-07-2023 15:17 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD - Will the Fed deliver a dovish final hike or add a hawkish twist?

Fed and ECB will have a big role to play in EURUSD moves over the next 24 hours Will both offer a final dovish hike and emphasize data dependency? EURUSD faces a big test around 1.10 after breaking out earlier this month EURUSD is trading a little choppy over the last couple of days with traders clearly heavily focused on the outcome of the Fed and ECB meetings. In both cases, a 25 basis point rate hike is heavily backed in the markets, but at the same time, the language that accompanies the de

26-07-2023 11:41 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD quiet ahead of Fed decision

The euro is showing limited movement for a second consecutive day. In Wednesday's European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1063, up 0.07%. Is the Fed "one and done"? The Federal Reserve meets later today, and it's close to a certainty that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25%, which would bring the Fed Funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

26-07-2023 11:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY softens as yen hedges surge ahead of BOJ

Rate cut odds for the December FOMC meeting now stands at 15.1% vs 16% yesterday Protection against yen strength rises to a four-month high Bearish tones emerging for USD/JPY as top Ichimoku cloud tested The Japanese yen is catching modest bids here as stocks soften on Microsoft’s disappointing AI outlook and as pressure builds for the BOJ to tighten. Microsoft’s results were adequate, but that won’t be enough to keep the mega-cap tech/AI trade going. Profit taking will likely remain the

26-07-2023 10:03 GMT by Edward Moya

Japanese yen extends gains, Fed rate decision looms

The Japanese yen is showing some strength this week and has gained 1.1%, rebounding from the previous week's plunge of 2.2%. In Wednesday's European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.23, down 0.49%. Spotlight on Fed, BoJ meetings The US and Japanese central banks will be on center stage this week, with the Fed meeting later on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates today by 0.25%, which would bring the Fed Funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

26-07-2023 08:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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