OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart to discuss the latest US jobs report, Apple and Amazon earnings, and an easy OPEC+ decision.
04-08-2023 12:31 GMT
by Edward Moya
All news & analysis
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USD/JPY declines on expectations BOJ will let rates rise quickly
Fed rate cut bets fully priced in by March meeting; implied rate stands at 5.123%
Fed’s Bostic noted US employment gains are slowing in an orderly manner, no need for tightening
NFP Day
The US economy should continue to gradually weaken as the labor market softens. This labor market report showed 187,000 jobs were added to the economy, while wage pressures heated up, and as the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%. This NFP report
04-08-2023 10:36 GMT
by Edward Moya
Canada added a negligible 1700 jobs in July
US nonfarm payrolls almost unchanged at 187,000
The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3360, up 0.06%.
04-08-2023 09:27 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
RBA policy statement says inflation high but declining
Money markets betting on a pause in September
US nonfarm payrolls expected at 200,000
The Australian dollar has stabilized but it has been a rough week, with losses of 1.37%. In Friday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6558, down 0.04%.
RBA says inflation high but moving in right direction
The Reserve Bank of Australia released its quarterly policy statement earlier today.
04-08-2023 07:06 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
German Factory Orders jump 7.0%
US nonfarm payrolls expected to dip to 200,000
The euro is almost unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.0952. We could see some movement in the North American session, with the release of US nonfarm payrolls.
The euro has shown sharp swings lately. EUR/USD climbed to 1.1275 on July 18th, its highest level since February 2022.
04-08-2023 04:35 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Ex-post Apple and Amazon earnings results reinforced the current +1.4% rebound seen on Index from its 3 August 2023 low in today’s 4 August Asian session hours.
The ongoing rebound is still not showing any clear signs of a reversal from its current short-term downtrend phase in place since 29 July 2023 as price actions remained below the 20-day moving average.
Medium-term momentum has turned bearish as indicated by the bearish divergence condition seen in the daily RSI at its overbought region w
04-08-2023 03:48 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
Crude prices rally after Saudis signal output cuts can be extended or deepened
Gold struggles as bond market selloff extends; 10-year Treasury rises 11.4bps to 4.191%
Bitcoin's tight range narrows to $28,900 to $30,100
Oil
Crude prices rallied after the Saudis did what everyone expected them to do, they extended output cuts. The Saudis are doing whatever it takes to defend oil prices and that could mean we could be seeing $90 oil soon. The only thing getting in oil’s way is a weakening global
03-08-2023 15:35 GMT
by Edward Moya
BOE rate hike odds for the September 21st meeting stand at 87.3%
The VIX index trades above 16, to the highest levels in two months
FX Volatility starts to pick, Canadian dollar index rises to nine-month high
Wall Street is watching a global bond market selloff get uglier as US stocks waver ahead of massive earnings from Apple and Amazon. A lot of economic data confirmed how resilient the US economy remains.
03-08-2023 15:22 GMT
by Edward Moya
Swiss inflation ticks lower to 1.6%
US nonfarm payrolls expected to dip to 200,000 on Friday
The Swiss franc is in positive territory on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8738, down 0.41%.
03-08-2023 13:40 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Canada to release July employment report on Friday
US nonfarm payrolls expected to dip to 200,000 on Friday
The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Monday, trading at 1.3357 in the North American session.
Canada's job numbers expected to remain solid
Canada releases the July employment report on Friday and June's stellar data will be hard to beat. The economy created 59,900 jobs in June, driven by a massive gain of 109,600 full-time jobs (part-time jobs fell by 49,800).
03-08-2023 11:22 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
BoE expected to raise rates at Thursday meeting
Money markets are split over extent of rate hike
The British pound is slightly lower on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2685, down 0.19%.
03-08-2023 04:25 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The recent weakness seen in the GBP is due to a broad-based strength in the US dollar as a short-term safe haven refuge triggered by global risk-off behaviour.
The accumulated 462 pips decline seen in the GBP/USD since the 14 July high of 1.3142 has almost reached the key medium-term support of 1.2630.
A clearance above 1.2740 on the GBP/USD may negate the current bearish tone.
The GBP/USD has shed an accumulated 462 pips in the past three weeks from its current 52-week high of 1.3142 reach
03-08-2023 01:37 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
USD surges as 10-year Treasury rises 4.4bps to 4.067%, highest level since November
Oil unable to rally after US crude stockpiles dropped by a record 17 million barrels last week
Gold slumps after hot ADP report keeps markets divided on whether Fed will tighten again
AUD/USD, NZD, USD, and USD/CAD are all seeing a tentative return of the king dollar trade. The dollar is rallying on safe-haven flows following Fitch's US sovereign rating downgrade. The surge in Treasury yields is also supportin
02-08-2023 14:01 GMT
by Edward Moya
Dollar rises as Treasury yields hit 2023 highs on ADP report and rising debt issuance
US firms add 324,000 in July, exceeding all estimates (140K to 280K)
Fitch downgrades US on fiscal deterioration over next 3 years and surging debt burden
US stocks are getting hit with a one-two punch as Fitch’s US sovereign downgrade overnight and on expectations the US Treasury will continue to boost the size of their debt sales. Earnings have been still coming mostly better than expected but the major ind
02-08-2023 13:13 GMT
by Edward Moya
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart to discuss the Fitch's US Sovereign rating downgrade, a hot ADP private payrolls report, and the EIA's record inventory draw.
02-08-2023 12:52 GMT
by Edward Moya
Swiss inflation projected to fall to 1.6%
ADP Employment blows past estimate
The Swiss franc has extended its losses on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8795, up 0.50%.
Swiss inflation expected to fall to 1.6%
Swiss National Bank President Jordan has often complained that inflation remains too high, although other central bankers, who are grappling with much higher inflation, would be happy to change places.
02-08-2023 09:45 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
New Zealand unemployment rate rises
NZD slide continues
ADP Employment report smashes estimate
The New Zealand dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6093, down 0.91%.
02-08-2023 08:58 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
BoJ says no plans to exit easy monetary policy
US to release ADP Employment report on Wednesday
USD/JPY rebounds
The Japanese yen has reversed a nasty three-day slide on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.75, down 0.40%.
BoJ says monetary easing to continue
The BoJ triggered some turmoil in the currency markets last week when it unexpectedly eased its yield curve control.
02-08-2023 06:45 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Yesterday’s daily “Shooting Star” candlestick coupled with today’s long-body daily bearish candle increases the odds of a bearish breakdown below the 50-day moving average.
Ongoing minor decline from the 1 August high of 33,490 high has reached an oversold condition, an imminent minor bounce may occur first before a potential new down leg.
Key short-term resistance will be at 33,490.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nikkei 225 Technical: Potential bullish reversal” published o
02-08-2023 03:21 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
Traders push back RBA rate hike bets until November
WTI and Brent crude implied volatility falls to lowest since 2020
Turkey unloads significant portion of gold holdings
The Australian dollar tumbled after the RBA kept rates on hold again and signaled they might be done tightening. Given most economists expected a hike, aussie-dollar was ripe for a plunge. US dollar strength also supported the decline after the Treasury increased their net borrowing estimate.
Oil
The oil price rally is re
01-08-2023 15:01 GMT
by Edward Moya