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British pound under pressure ahead of Bank of England decision

BoE expected to raise rates at Thursday meeting Money markets are split over extent of rate hike The British pound is slightly lower on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2685, down 0.19%.

03-08-2023 04:25 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD Technical: Sell-off almost reached key support ahead of BoE

The recent weakness seen in the GBP is due to a broad-based strength in the US dollar as a short-term safe haven refuge triggered by global risk-off behaviour. The accumulated 462 pips decline seen in the GBP/USD since the 14 July high of 1.3142 has almost reached the key medium-term support of 1.2630. A clearance above 1.2740 on the GBP/USD may negate the current bearish tone. The GBP/USD has shed an accumulated 462 pips in the past three weeks from its current 52-week high of 1.3142 reach

03-08-2023 01:37 GMT by Kelvin Wong

King Dollar returns and takes down Commodities and their Currencies

USD surges as 10-year Treasury rises 4.4bps to 4.067%, highest level since November Oil unable to rally after US crude stockpiles dropped by a record 17 million barrels last week Gold slumps after hot ADP report keeps markets divided on whether Fed will tighten again AUD/USD, NZD, USD, and USD/CAD are all seeing a tentative return of the king dollar trade. The dollar is rallying on safe-haven flows following Fitch's US sovereign rating downgrade. The surge in Treasury yields is also supportin

02-08-2023 14:01 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar gains as risk aversion returns on Fitch's US downgrade and surging Treasury issuance

Dollar rises as Treasury yields hit 2023 highs on ADP report and rising debt issuance US firms add 324,000 in July, exceeding all estimates (140K to 280K) Fitch downgrades US on fiscal deterioration over next 3 years and surging debt burden US stocks are getting hit with a one-two punch as Fitch’s US sovereign downgrade overnight and on expectations the US Treasury will continue to boost the size of their debt sales. Earnings have been still coming mostly better than expected but the major ind

02-08-2023 13:13 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Dollar rises on US credit rating downgraded, Treasury issuance, and ADP jobs boost

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart to discuss the Fitch's US Sovereign rating downgrade, a hot ADP private payrolls report, and the EIA's record inventory draw.

02-08-2023 12:52 GMT by Edward Moya

Swiss franc eases ahead of Swiss inflation report

Swiss inflation projected to fall to 1.6% ADP Employment blows past estimate The Swiss franc has extended its losses on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8795, up 0.50%. Swiss inflation expected to fall to 1.6% Swiss National Bank President Jordan has often complained that inflation remains too high, although other central bankers, who are grappling with much higher inflation, would be happy to change places.

02-08-2023 09:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar sinks after soft jobs report

New Zealand unemployment rate rises NZD slide continues ADP Employment report smashes estimate The New Zealand dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6093, down 0.91%.

02-08-2023 08:58 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen gain rebounds after dovish remarks from BoJ

BoJ says no plans to exit easy monetary policy US to release ADP Employment report on Wednesday USD/JPY rebounds The Japanese yen has reversed a nasty three-day slide on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.75, down 0.40%. BoJ says monetary easing to continue The BoJ triggered some turmoil in the currency markets last week when it unexpectedly eased its yield curve control.

02-08-2023 06:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nikkei 225 Technical: On the verge of a potential multi-week corrective decline

Yesterday’s daily “Shooting Star” candlestick coupled with today’s long-body daily bearish candle increases the odds of a bearish breakdown below the 50-day moving average. Ongoing minor decline from the 1 August high of 33,490 high has reached an oversold condition, an imminent minor bounce may occur first before a potential new down leg. Key short-term resistance will be at 33,490. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nikkei 225 Technical: Potential bullish reversal” published o

02-08-2023 03:21 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD and Commodities decline as Dollar rally resumes

Traders push back RBA rate hike bets until November WTI and Brent crude implied volatility falls to lowest since 2020 Turkey unloads significant portion of gold holdings The Australian dollar tumbled after the RBA kept rates on hold again and signaled they might be done tightening. Given most economists expected a hike, aussie-dollar was ripe for a plunge. US dollar strength also supported the decline after the Treasury increased their net borrowing estimate. Oil The oil price rally is re

01-08-2023 15:01 GMT by Edward Moya

USD pares gains after data suggest wage pressures are softening

Dollar rises to three-week high (low for euro) as labor market cools Atlanta's GDPNow index rises to 3.87%, up from 3.55% Manufacturing contracts for a ninth straight month The US dollar pared some its earlier gains after the JOLTS and ISM manufacturing employment component supported a Fed skip in September, possibly confirming hopes that they could be done tightening. The dollar was rallying against the euro as equities tumbled over mixed earnings and over concerns the US soft landing needs t

01-08-2023 12:13 GMT by Edward Moya

NZ dollar slides as Chinese Mfg. PMI declines

NZD/USD is down 1% China's Caixin Mfg. PMI contracted in July The New Zealand dollar continues to show sharp volatility early in the week.

01-08-2023 10:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen extends losses against dollar

The Japanese yen continues to slide and is down 1.41% this week. In Tuesday's European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.16, up 0.64%. Dollar/yen powers above 143 The yen continues to lose ground against the US dollar.

01-08-2023 08:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar takes a tumble as RBA pauses

RBA pauses rates Australian dollar slides 1.3% ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to remain in negative territory The Australian dollar continues to swing wildly this week. In Tuesday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6630, down 1.30%.

01-08-2023 06:12 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

A “data-dependent” RBA does not bode well for Aussie bulls

Australia's central bank, RBA has kept its policy cash rate unchanged at 4.1% for the second consecutive month. The tonality of the latest monetary policy implies that RBA is now data-dependent, and indirectly acknowledged the negative adverse lagged effects of higher interest rates towards economic growth. Overall, RBA may continue to remain on hold on its policy cash rate at 4.1% for the rest of 2023 which in turn negates any potential major bullish movement of the AUD/USD. Expectations of in

01-08-2023 02:26 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD Technical: Hovering below the 200-day moving average as RBA looms

AUD underperformed among the major currencies against the USD from 27 to 28 July 2023 ex-post FOMC, ECB, and BoJ. Split view among economists and interest rates traders on RBA monetary policy decision today. Short-term bearish downside momentum at this juncture as the AUD/USD failed to trade above the 200-day moving average. Key short-term resistance on AUD/USD is at 0.6740. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD Technical: Rebounded right at 200-day moving average” publishe

31-07-2023 23:01 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil and loonie flying high together again

Oil poised for best monthly performance since early 2022 Net-long positions in WTI rise to highest levels in 3 months Goldman says global oil demand has surpassed peak set just before COVID-19 USD/CAD Canadian dollar Oil and the loonie are flying high again as global growth prospects improve and on optimism the Fed is done tightening. The Canadian dollar was weakening last week on fears that the BOC's tightening cycle is starting to weigh on the economy. That outlook might change if China

31-07-2023 13:27 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar wavers ahead of SLOOS

Eurozone Q2 GDP returned to growth with a 0.3% advance reading (prior revised higher to 0.0%). Eurozone core inflation held steady at 5.3% Stocks have a flat session as traders await NFP Friday US stocks are wavering ahead of a key Fed survey that should show loan growth is weakening and that the economy should steadily weaken. The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) will tell us how top lending officers feel about the credit outlook. The US dollar isn’t making any major moves as Wall

31-07-2023 13:16 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro shrugs as eurozone GDP, core CPI accelerate

Eurozone core inflation surprises on the upside Eurozone GDP accelerates to 0.3% The euro is showing little movement on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1023, up 0.06%. It has been a wild ride for the euro over the past two weeks.

31-07-2023 11:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen slides to 3-week low vs dollar as BoJ buys JGBs

BoJ announces JGB purchases Japanese yen's slide continues The Japanese yen has extended its slide on Monday and is trading at 142.22, down 0.75% against the US dollar. BoJ surprises with JGB purchases The Japanese yen continues to show sharp volatility, which can be attributed directly to moves by the Bank of Japan. On Friday, the BoJ caught the markets by surprise and loosened its yield curve control policy.

31-07-2023 10:35 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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