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Swiss franc drifting ahead of SNB rate decision

Swiss National Bank expected to raise interest rates on Thursday Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress Wednesday and Thursday The Swiss franc is showing little movement on Wednesday, trading at 0.8984 in the North American session. Will Swiss National Bank deliver a hawkish surprise? The Swiss National Bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday, and the meeting is live, as the markets have priced a 0.50% hike at 60% and a 0.25% at 40%. The current benchmark rate is 1.50%.

21-06-2023 09:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar calm ahead of Canadian retail sales

Canada releases retail sales Fed Chair Powell testifies before a House Committee The Canadian dollar is drifting lower on Wednesday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3222 in Europe, down 0.10%.

21-06-2023 07:12 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

DJIA Technical: Broke minor support ahead and underperformed

Dow Jones Industrial Average has underperformed against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in the past 2 sessions. Broke minor support yesterday now turns into key short-term resistance at 34,310. Sill sandwiched within a complex sideways range configuration in the medium-term horizon with its range resistance at 34,630. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has continued to be one of the underperformers among the major US benchmark stock indices ex-post Q2 “Triple Witching” options expiration since

21-06-2023 07:05 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Is the BoE prepared to step up its inflation fight in light of another devastating inflation report?

Policymakers at the Bank of England will be scratching their heads this morning wondering what they have to do to get inflation down, with the latest CPI report another setback in the central bank's ambition of delivering price stability and a soft landing. While there are many reasons to be confident that inflation should fall sharply over the coming months including lower energy and food price contributions, it's hard to be too optimistic when the data keeps consistently coming in well above

21-06-2023 04:41 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil in choppy waters, UK inflation spike puts pressure on gold

A very choppy start to the week for oil prices Oil prices have been very choppy at the start of the week as traders digest weaker economic prospects against higher Iranian output and a slightly more modest rate cut in China. There are so many moving parts at this stage but at this point in time, there's more negative than positive as far as the crude price is concerned. Additional supply from Iran is undermining Saudi Arabia's efforts to desperately manipulate prices higher with production cuts.

21-06-2023 04:38 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD dips after inflation jumps, BoE up next

UK core inflation rises in May BoE likely to raise rates on Thursday Fed Chair Powell testifies before House Committee The British pound has edged lower on Wednesday. GBP is trading at 1.2724 in Europe, down 0.3%.

21-06-2023 04:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AI FOMO versus economic realities

“Artificial Intelligence” (AI) equity-theme plays are the main contributor so far in the current bull market. Non-technology companies are now jumping into the AI-related bandwagon. The gap between current AI optimism and economic cyclical factors has widened.

21-06-2023 04:04 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Risk aversion weigh on oil and gold, Bitcoin rises on BlackRock planned ETF and EDX launch

Oil Crude prices are lower on disappointment with the size of cuts with China’s key lending rates. Oil seems locked in on anything and everything that has to do with China. Last week, oil was supported by improving Chinese refiner quotas. This week, energy traders are seeing oil weakness emerge on disappointing stimulus efforts. WTI crude looks like it is starting to find some decent support at the $68 region and that should hold as long the Fed does spook markets that they might be read

20-06-2023 12:17 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks lower as PBOC stimulus disappoints and despite Blinken's constructive trip

Wall Street awaits a week full of hawkish Fed speak Global risk aversion settles in as PBOC stimulus disappoints US-China relations improve but no significant breakthroughs are expected US stocks are starting on softer footing on disappointment from the PBOC’s stimulus efforts for the struggling property market and on expectations Fed Chair Powell will defend the FOMC’s dot plots. Improving sentiment with US-China relations was somewhat faded as the yuan was fixed at the lowest levels since N

20-06-2023 12:07 GMT by Edward Moya

New Zealand dollar slides as consumer confidence stays weak

NZD/USD is down 1.3% this week New Zealand consumer confidence rises Powell to testify before a House Committee on Wednesday The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower for a second straight day. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6148, down 0.83%. New Zealand consumer confidence rises New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence accelerated to 83.1 in May, up from 77.7 in April and above the consensus of 76.2 points.

20-06-2023 10:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD lower ahead of UK inflation

UK inflation expected to fall to 8.4% on Wednesday BoE likely to raise rates on Thursday Fed Chair Powell to testify before House committee on Wednesday The British pound is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2739, down 0.41%. UK inflation expected to ease The UK releases the May inflation report on Wednesday and BoE policy makers will be hoping that inflation continues to trend lower.

20-06-2023 08:56 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Hang Seng Index Technical: Minor uptrend intact

Hang Seng Index has dropped by -2.4% since last Friday's high ex-post interest rate cuts by PBoC. Short-term uptrend from 31 May 2023 low remains intact as it still trades above the 200-day moving average. Key support to watch will be at 19,090. This is a following-up analysis of our earlier publication, “Hang Seng Index Technical: Potential breakout from channel resistance” dated on 9 June 2023 (click here for a recap). The Hong Kong 33 Index (a proxy for the Hang Seng Index futures) has stag

20-06-2023 06:53 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil remains choppy, gold drifting after US holiday

Oil remains choppy but flat and in lower range Oil prices are relatively flat today, mirroring yesterday's session which was broadly choppy but ultimately directionless. Crude has rebounded strongly since falling toward its 2023 lows early last week but remains in its lower range, roughly between $70-$80 per barrel and it's showing little sign of breaking that in the short term. While some believe the market will be in deficit later in the year, aided by the Saudi-driven OPEC+ cuts, which could

20-06-2023 04:51 GMT by Craig Erlam

US return could boost activity, focus remains on BoE and UK inflation

Stock markets remain slightly in the red on Tuesday but activity should pick up with the return of Wall Street from the long bank holiday weekend. The focus this week remains on the central banks and whether we are as close to the end of the tightening cycle as everyone wants to believe. While there is the temptation to take what the Fed and others say with a small pinch of salt given their record over the last couple of years and the fact that any pivot was always likely to come late, they hav

20-06-2023 04:49 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD - Aussie slides after dovish RBA minutes

RBA minutes state that the rate hike decision was close China's central bank trims key lending rates The Australian dollar has hit a bump in the road and is down 1% this week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6795, down 0.80% on the day. RBA minutes - rate decision was close The Reserve Bank of Australia has a habit of surprising the markets.

20-06-2023 04:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

All eyes on the BoE this week

It's been a quiet start to the week with stocks edging lower in light trade due to the US bank holiday. It feels like last week may have left us with more questions than answers in that the US inflation data was ok, not great, the Fed paused while forecasting multiple more hikes, and the ECB hiked while insisting more is to come. Now it's up to the BoE to continue its firefighting mission; one that is at risk of getting out of control despite the MPC's efforts to contain it. Of all the major e

19-06-2023 13:25 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil and gold range-bound, bitcoin vulnerable

Economic outlook maintains pressure on oil prices Oil prices are trading broadly flat at the start of the week, in keeping with the general feeling in the markets in the absence of any notable catalysts. It has recovered quite well over the last week having fallen back towards the 2023 lows last Monday.

19-06-2023 13:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD drifting lower ahead of RBA minutes

RBA to June meeting minutes on Tuesday UoM inflation expectations decline The Australian dollar has started the week with losses. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6848, down 0.39%.

19-06-2023 12:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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Podcast - US-China relations improve, huge week ahead for the BoE

OANDA Senior Market Analysts Craig Erlam and Kelvin Wong join Jonny Hart to discuss how markets are trading at the start of the week and look ahead to the BoE, SNB and CBRT interest rate decisions.

19-06-2023 10:27 GMT by Craig Erlam

New Zealand dollar slips despite solid services release

NZD/USD is down sharply on Monday New Zealand services beat expectations US inflation expectations fall to March 2021 low The New Zealand dollar is down sharply on Monday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6192 down 0.75%. New Zealand Services PSI beats expectations New Zealand's services sector accelerated in May, as the Performance of Services Index rose from an upwardly revised 50.1 to 53.3 points.

19-06-2023 08:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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