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GBP/USD lower ahead of UK inflation
UK inflation expected to fall to 8.4% on Wednesday BoE likely to raise rates on Thursday Fed Chair Powell to testify before House committee on Wednesday The British pound is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2739, down 0.41%. UK inflation expected to ease The UK releases the May inflation report on Wednesday and BoE policy makers will be hoping that inflation continues to trend lower.
20-06-2023 08:56 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Hang Seng Index Technical: Minor uptrend intact
Hang Seng Index has dropped by -2.4% since last Friday's high ex-post interest rate cuts by PBoC. Short-term uptrend from 31 May 2023 low remains intact as it still trades above the 200-day moving average. Key support to watch will be at 19,090. This is a following-up analysis of our earlier publication, “Hang Seng Index Technical: Potential breakout from channel resistance” dated on 9 June 2023 (click here for a recap). The Hong Kong 33 Index (a proxy for the Hang Seng Index futures) has stag
20-06-2023 06:53 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Oil remains choppy, gold drifting after US holiday
Oil remains choppy but flat and in lower range Oil prices are relatively flat today, mirroring yesterday's session which was broadly choppy but ultimately directionless. Crude has rebounded strongly since falling toward its 2023 lows early last week but remains in its lower range, roughly between $70-$80 per barrel and it's showing little sign of breaking that in the short term. While some believe the market will be in deficit later in the year, aided by the Saudi-driven OPEC+ cuts, which could
20-06-2023 04:51 GMT by Craig Erlam
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US return could boost activity, focus remains on BoE and UK inflation
Stock markets remain slightly in the red on Tuesday but activity should pick up with the return of Wall Street from the long bank holiday weekend. The focus this week remains on the central banks and whether we are as close to the end of the tightening cycle as everyone wants to believe. While there is the temptation to take what the Fed and others say with a small pinch of salt given their record over the last couple of years and the fact that any pivot was always likely to come late, they hav
20-06-2023 04:49 GMT by Craig Erlam
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AUD/USD - Aussie slides after dovish RBA minutes
RBA minutes state that the rate hike decision was close China's central bank trims key lending rates The Australian dollar has hit a bump in the road and is down 1% this week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6795, down 0.80% on the day. RBA minutes - rate decision was close The Reserve Bank of Australia has a habit of surprising the markets.
20-06-2023 04:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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All eyes on the BoE this week
It's been a quiet start to the week with stocks edging lower in light trade due to the US bank holiday. It feels like last week may have left us with more questions than answers in that the US inflation data was ok, not great, the Fed paused while forecasting multiple more hikes, and the ECB hiked while insisting more is to come. Now it's up to the BoE to continue its firefighting mission; one that is at risk of getting out of control despite the MPC's efforts to contain it. Of all the major e
19-06-2023 13:25 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil and gold range-bound, bitcoin vulnerable
Economic outlook maintains pressure on oil prices Oil prices are trading broadly flat at the start of the week, in keeping with the general feeling in the markets in the absence of any notable catalysts. It has recovered quite well over the last week having fallen back towards the 2023 lows last Monday.
19-06-2023 13:17 GMT by Craig Erlam
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New Zealand dollar slips despite solid services release
NZD/USD is down sharply on Monday New Zealand services beat expectations US inflation expectations fall to March 2021 low The New Zealand dollar is down sharply on Monday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6192 down 0.75%. New Zealand Services PSI beats expectations New Zealand's services sector accelerated in May, as the Performance of Services Index rose from an upwardly revised 50.1 to 53.3 points.
19-06-2023 08:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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EUR/GBP Technical: Short-term downtrend intact
EUR/GBP has continued to trade lower, now at 0.8520, its lowest level since Aug 2022 ahead of UK inflation data (Wed,21 Jun) & BoE monetary policy decision (Thurs, 22 Jun). Short-term downtrend for EUR/GBP remains intact since the 26 Apr high of 0.8875. Key short-term resistance to watch will be at 0.8580 to maintain bearish momentum. Last week, the EUR/GBP cross rate recorded its third consecutive weekly loss and traded below its former medium-term range support of 0.8580 (swing low areas of O
19-06-2023 06:44 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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AUD/JPY Technical: At the risk of a minor pull-back
Minor uptrend phase of AUD/JPY since its 1 June 2023 low 0f 90.26 has reached overstretched condition. The overstretched rally of AUD/JPY is characterized by a 14-month high seen in the Bollinger Bandwidth (a measurement of historical volatility). Short-term upside momentum has started to wane. Fig 1: AUD/JPY medium-term trend as of 19 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Fig 2: AUD/JPY minor short-term trend as of 19 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart
19-06-2023 00:57 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Oil pares gain on refinery outages, Gold's busy week ends where it started
Kpler data shows Iran oil exports hit highest level since sanctions started China increase oil import quota 20% from a year ago Gold ETFs reduced for a 13th straight day Oil Oil is rallying as the short-term fundamental outlook appears to have turned a corner, with Europe’s diesel premium surging and as China delivers a massive crude import quota.  Europe’s widening of Gasoil cracks was triggered by refinery maintenance across Asia, while China’s imports improve and probably will become robust
16-06-2023 12:03 GMT by Edward Moya
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Another great week for stocks, Hawkish Fed speak resumes, Inflation expectations plunge
S&P 500 poised for best week since March Barkin and Waller resume hawkish Fed speak One-year inflation expectations fall to the lowest levels since March 2021 US stocks are ready for a long weekend as traders are exhausted from a week filled with high impact events that didn’t derail momentum in equities. The Fed’s hawkish hold was followed by further hawkish reminders by Barkin and Waller.  Fed's Barkin said that if the Fed backs off too soon, it risks having to hike more, while Fed's Waller,
16-06-2023 11:52 GMT by Edward Moya
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Ending the week on a positive note, more central banks next week
Markets are ending the week on a positive note but there remains enormous uncertainty around inflation and interest rates that looks set to continue throughout the summer. Expectations are changing considerably on a very regular basis, with markets now pricing in no rate cuts in the US this year but a strong chance of one more hike, which still falls short of the median two from the Fed dot plot. The central bank opted to buy itself time on Wednesday which may prove to be a good decision given t
16-06-2023 11:10 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil steadies, gold rebounds despite hawkish Fed
Oil steadies but further volatility may be in store Oil prices are steady at the end of the week, the rest of which has been anything but. There’s been a lot to factor in recently from OPEC+ (Saudi) output cuts to higher interest rate expectations, deteriorating economic prospects, and rate cuts in China. In all of that, the price has held in its lower 2023 range - roughly $70-$80 in Brent - but it did test the lower end of this earlier in the week.
16-06-2023 11:01 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Australian dollar surges to 4-month high
Australian dollar soars 1.29% on Thursday on Fed pause Markets price in Fed rate cuts despite Powell's hawkish signals The Australian dollar has moved lower on Friday, paring some of Thursday's massive gains. The Aussie traded as high as 0.6899 earlier today, its highest level since February 21st. Australian dollar soars after Fed pause The US dollar sagged badly against most of the major currencies on Thursday, in the aftermath of the dramatic Federal Reserve meeting.
16-06-2023 10:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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