Oil reaches $92 in a historic War squeeze – WTI Analysis

• Oil ends an erratic week, up more than 37% since last Friday
• WTI reaches historic volatility with Supply Fears reaching extremes, now back to 2023 levels.
• Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity

Oil took the center stage once again in this week's volatile action.

Rising 37% since last Friday, Crude is now at concerning levels, even outperforming the January 2022 Ukraine-War weekly performance, reaching $92.68 this week—a reminder that the commodity was trading near $55 just about two months ago.

The third ingredient in a daily toxic fundamental cocktail, Black Gold, is contributing to elevated inflation expectations.

Although its closure isn't official, as during the 1970s, the Strait of Hormuz is subject to de facto restrictions, and virtually no ships have managed to cross it.

Only nine ships have traversed the Strait of Hormuz this week – A major concern, particularly in Asia, where 90% of Middle Eastern Oil passes through.

Maritime insurance companies have strictly restricted, and in some cases banned, all types of passage, with premiums rising to historic highs.

A striking example of the damage done is seen in Singaporean Jet Fuel Prices, which have risen 140% since February 27.

With Iran adding further fuel to the fire (pun intended – even if this is nothing to joke about) by targeting Bahrain and other Gulf countries, the situation is certainly escalating.

Qatar even warned of the possibility of seeing $150/barrel prices if the de facto closure sustains.

To ease some price pressures, the US just launched a $20B reinsurance facility, which was met with a mildly headline-easing daily rise towards the close.

US and Israeli strikes have also managed to destroy around 1,300 ballistic missile and drone launchers, leading to a now much more restricted number of attacks from the Islamic regime.

This weekend will be very important towards incoming expectations, a week after the beginning of operations.

As traders prepare to end another crazy week, let's explore a few key charts for WTI (US) Oil to prepare for what's coming..

Read More:

• The Canadian Dollar loves conflict – Has the CAD reached a long-term bottom?
• Middle East escalation sends shockwaves through global energy markets
• Stocks tumble after chaotic NFP and Oil action – Dow Jones & US Index Outlook
• Large NFP miss and Oil surge to $90 – A Stagflation cocktail ahead of weekend risk

Oil quickly broke above all types prior resistance, reaching a peak of $92.68 before slightly easing in the final hour of trading.

Looking at 2025 levels is now quite useless, with this week's candle sweeping through the 3-year downward trend.

Looking out, using September to October 2023 levels will provide more reliable levels in order to track upcoming support and resistance.

Breaking $95 should quickly open the door for $100 per barrel.

Oil is closing its week off of its relative highs, a sign of balance amid the ongoing extreme squeeze – The RSI is naturally very overbought, but it is not a reliable indicator to watch during such high-paced trending environments.

Nevertheless, any hopes for lower prices will first have to breach the $86.50 Momentum Pivot Zone.

• Any pullback below will then see a minor support between $83 and $84.
• The only Major support however will be the $78 to $80 2025 High Zone.

WTI Technical Levels:

Resistance Levels

• $89 to $91 October 2023 Pivotal Resistance (testing)
• Daily highs $92.64
• Next Major Resistance $93.50 to $95
• $98 to $100 Resistance

Support Levels

• April 2024 Top – Momentum Pivot (Bullish above) $86.50 to $88.00
• $83 to $84 Mini-Support
• 2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80
• Monday spike $73.00 to $74.00
• September 2025 Mid-term Support $67.50 to $68
• 2025 lows $55.00

The end session brought with it some timid profit-taking, as sellers attempt to bring back the action within the $89 to $91 resistance zone.

Next week's open is virtually impossible to predict, but there are a few zones to watch:

• To the upside:
  • The $95 Major Resistance; breaking above hints at a quick test to $100
• To the downside:
  • The $86.50 Pivot Level, accompanied with the 20-Hour MA which could see some pullback buying
  • Reactions to the channel retest in the event of a larger pullback (around $84)
• Breaking back below $78 would imply that the war premium is easing (far from the case for now)

Safe Trades, a restful weekend, and keep track of the advancement of the conflict!

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