US Freedom Trading is Back! – North American Mid-Week Market Update

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.

Traders are officially getting back to work after a well-deserved winter holiday break. Hope that you all had wonderful Christmas and New Year celebrations.

Markets are already getting what they wanted in terms of volatility and news with the capture of Venezuela's President/Dictator Nicolas Maduro, leading to significant gaps on the Monday open and massive rallies across all asset classes.

With the Trump Administration following up the capture with threats to other Latin American countries like Colombia or Mexico, and even more deranging, threats to Greenland, we can expect quite an adventurous 2026 trading.

This created a boost to the Freedom Trade, which added a significant boost to Stocks, pushing the Dow Jones and S&P 500 to new record highs and further driving demand for Metals, as safe-haven demand also makes considerable sense.

Wall Street is loving these flows, in any case, with a sense of rebound in confidence in US strength, as US exceptionalism can even cross borders to protect US Interests.

Banks and investors are uncertain about how to proceed with the new fundamental data, as the impact of the latest geopolitical developments has yet to be fully felt.

This also combines with quite uncertain US inflation and economic outlooks, leaving a still cloudy picture of a Fed rate cut.

What’s certain is that Canada could face further challenges with Venezuela's Maduro capture. A reopened Venezuelan oil market offers alternatives to the Canada Western Select, a special class of heavy sour Crude Oil.

You can learn more on this right here.

The weekly open sent the Loonie struggling – You can see more on this further in the article.

Adding to the uncertainty of the USMCA Agreement, traders can still expect volatility for the CAD and USD.

Keep a close eye on headlines regarding the economic debates with news expected to release during the month. And don't forget that Markets are still awaiting a real US-Canada Trade deal.

Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap.

Read More:

• Oil on Discount: WTI Nosedives as Sellers Return to the Market, What's Next?
• Markets Today: Euro Area Inflation Cools, Silver Peaks Above $80/oz, Gold Retreats Ahead of Key US Data Releases
• Chart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is losing bullish momentum below US$4,500, bearish reversal next

Stocks have had quite a sweet Year-Beginning run.

Most global Stock Indexes are up since the Yearly open, particularly after Monday's buying spree across US Benchmarks.

Still, the US NFP is coming up on Friday which could put a brutal stop to the ongoing frenzy.

I invite you to check out our freshly release in-depth US Dollar Analysis where you can get access to trading levels, ideas and much more:

What’s Next for the US Dollar After the "Freedom Trade" Surge? – DXY Outlook

The performance for the US Dollar is very mixed – APAC Currencies, particularly the Antipodeans are taking the lead but FX trends have yet to materialize.

It seems that the Loonie is still quite hungover from its New Year's Eve.

The Canadian Dollar is down against all of its major counterparts to start the year.

USD/CAD is rallying quite strongly since forming its bottom around mid-December, supported by its uptrend.

With the mean-reversion higher forming a Bearish RSI divergence, watch for a potential sell entry around the 4H 200-period MA, currently at 1.38570.

A break of the upwards trendline can be used as confirmation.

A close above on the session would on the other hand see a breakout to retest the 1.39-1.3925 August resistance.

Levels of interest for USD/CAD:

Resistance Levels

• 4H 200 MA at 1.38570
• 1.38730 FOMC Highs
• 1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance
• 1.40 Major Resistance

Support Levels

• 1.38 Handle Major Pivot +/- 150 pips
• 1.3780 Trendline Mini-Support
• August support 1.3750
• 1.3660 July Breakout support
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support

The end of the week is firmly centered on NA labor markets.

Thursday opens with U.S. employment signals via Challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims, followed by Q3 productivity and unit labor cost data—useful inputs for gauging wage pressure and anticipate labor market dynamics heading into payrolls.

Friday is the main event, with Canada and the U.S. releasing jobs data simultaneously (8:30 A.M.).

In Canada, focus is on employment change, unemployment, and wage growth, with consensus pointing to a soft print after November’s strength.

In the U.S., the full labor report hits at once: NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment, participation, underemployment, and earnings, alongside housing data.

The session closes with preliminary Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations, rounding out a data-heavy finish likely to set the tone for rates and FX into the following weeks. Keep an eye on developments for the US Dollar!

Safe Trades and Much Success for 2026!

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