Stocks and metals rally as US shutdown conclusion is close – Market wrap for the North American session - November 10

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 10.

This week opened on some false hopes for an early conclusion of the US government shutdown after what were described as productive US Senate discussions this past Sunday.

Unfortunately, those initial hopes did not materialize, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.

We are now on the 40th day of the shutdown, and the pressure is mounting.

The airport situation in the US is becoming disastrous, with more than 1,000 flights seeing delays due to a critical shortage of air traffic controllers.

Nonetheless, prediction markets remain optimistic, currently pricing a 92% chance that the shutdown will finally end within the next five days.

The discussions themselves have fueled a rally in Stocks, as news filtered out that many Democrats are folding on key concessions and losing leverage, which would ultimately give further advantage to Republicans in the final deal.

• Why the end of the US shutdown sparks a huge rally in Stocks

This political development—detailed in an interesting piece by Axios—has seen fiscal concerns arise again.

The market is anticipating that a Republican-favored resolution will likely involve more spending and less fiscal discipline, which immediately sent another impulsive wave of bullishness into Metals, but at the cost of the US Dollar.

• Metal rally ignites: Silver surges back above $50 level
• Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Bullish Breakout Gathers Pace as Fed Pivot Expectations Firm, $4250/oz Incoming?
• Markets Weekly Outlook – Traders get impatient for the US shutdown to end

The picture is very familiar for those who have been trading throughout the first half of 2025: Stocks (particularly European and Tech) have loved the session, with metals enjoying it even more at the cost of the US dollar and US treasuries.

A familiar open that also adds some spice in a week that is expected to be a rollercoaster! Get ready.

Antipodean, typically profiting from risk-on conditions appreciated the turn in Markets to start the week – However, AUD and NZD traders should stay cautious with key data for both New Zealand and Australia releasing this week.

On the other side of the spectrum, the CHF but even more the JPY, two safe-havens, took a hit from the better market mood.

The yen saw particular disinterest from overnight comments from Takaichi, further reaffirming the ultra-loose policies she wants to put in place and which have been so detrimental to the Japanese currency performance.

The dollar also got sold off due to fiscal concerns, but avoids being the weakest currency of the FX major board.

The evening session opens quietly with a few early catalysts, including Japan’s Current Account (closely watched with the Takaichi policies) and New Zealand’s Q4 Inflation Expectations, key for upcoming decisions (RBNZ has been lost in terms of their next moves).

Momentum picks up sharply on Tuesday, with the UK’s full labour market report due early — wages are expected to ease slightly (+4.9% YoY including bonuses), and the Claimant Count could show another 20K+ increase, confirming softening momentum in Britain’s job market.

In Europe, the focus turns to Lagarde’s speech and the German ZEW survey, where sentiment is seen stabilizing but still deep in negative territory (Current = –77.5, Expectations ≈ 40).

The USD session rounds off with Fed’s Barr late in the day and the ADP 4-week average, a soft preview of labour conditions heading into next month’s jobs report.

Safe Trades!

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