Silver Takes the Crown – North American session Market Wrap for December 11

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 11

The session following an FOMC rate decision is always a fascinating one.

FOMC days tend to be truly chaotic, due to the flurry of incoming orders, algorithms driving markets up and down, and a general sense of confusion over whether events were already priced in, and if so, whether they were priced in enough.

The best example of this is the spectacular squeeze in Silver.

Up above 10% since the beginning of the week, the COMEX decided to coincidentally up margins in Silver... by 10%.

The flows are getting interesting in this most confusing rate cutting cycle from the Fed and confirms that 2025 has been one hell of a year for trading.

The "Debasement Trade" continued today, but with a tilt towards defensive sectors, with the Dow Jones beating its peers and tech getting wrecked.

The DJIA closes up by 1.34% while Nasdaq closes down 0.34%. Talk about a rotation – That's a big one.

Post-cut flows are developing but they are still young; things will get volatile until the end of the week.

After this, expect a snoozer until December 16 and the November Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Apart from that, the US Dollar has been diving in a bottomless pit, dragging bonds with it – Longer-term yields are rising while the Dollar sags.

A rough cocktail for the US Treasury.

At least the US President contained his discontent with the only 25 bps cut...

Read More:

• The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.75% – Market Reactions
• Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) levels for the FOMC
• Technical Analysis of Google and Microsoft Stocks – AI Leaders Outlook part 2

Today's flows around Markets have been covered in detail in our most recent piece (which I gladly invite you to check) – It covers fundamental and mechanical flows after Fed Cuts.

Still, I can't seem to comprehend why Energy commodities are getting sold off so harshly. We will see why very soon I guess.

Cryptos are also trading very erratically, a confused Market to say the least.

The US Dollar continues to take a big hit, with the Swissie enjoying such flows the most.

Today's SNB rate hold must have helped quite a lot, particularly as communications pointed to a less aggressive stance regarding their need to go into negative territory. Their recent trade deal with the US must also be helping quite a lot.

Surprisingly, the AUD and NZD are the laggers of the session, dragged down from Aussie Employment missing harshly, but apart from that I can't reason the Kiwi getting dragged down (apart from the regional trends in FX where currencies get pulled by their neighbors).

The evening session will be quiet, with no major releases on the docket, allowing markets to focus on positioning ahead of tomorrow's critical data.

Tomorrow's session (Friday) is packed with the final high-impact data for the week, focusing on European and UK growth and inflation.

The early morning session features critical inflation and growth data:

• German HICP (CPI) (02:00 A.M. ET): A core inflation reading is expected to remain high at 2.6% YoY.
• UK GDP/Industrial Production (02:00 A.M. ET): These are key releases for assessing the health of the UK economy, with GDP expected to show a small recovery at 0.1% MoM.

The North American Session will be very light on data but heavy on rhetoric:

• FedSpeak is back on the line after a very long Blackout period. The morning features three speeches from influential members of the Federal Reserve: Fed's Paulson (08:00 A.M. ET), Fed's Hammack (08:30 A.M. ET), and Fed's Goolsbee (10:30 A.M. ET).

Safe Trades!

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