Resilient traders in uncertain times – North American Mid-Week Market update

• Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global traders
• Many catalysts are colliding for Markets, including a new Fed Chair, geopolitical turmoil and sharp volatility
• US assets and the Dollar are resilient despite pessimistic sentiment

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.

The past seven days, if not the past month, have been thoroughly volatile.

And this hasn't been the case without the effect of influential catalysts.

President Trump announced that Kevin Warsh will replace Fed Chair Powell as his term ends in May 2026, and this, combined with some 7-sigma volatility in the Metals Market, particularly Silver, which tumbled from $120 to $71 in a single day.

Combine this with volatile US-Iran developments (military assets are packed in the region, recent drone attacks, ...) and it is spectacular to see US Stock Benchmarks holding near their all-time highs.

In our past week's edition, we explored the post-Greenland Crisis USD drop to 4-year lows, but this theme now looks far gone.

The Dollar has been rebounding since the low 95.00 handle, back solidly above 97.00, in what resembles a key test of its resilience, leading to swift moves in major FX pairs, with EUR/USD falling back well below the 1.20 level.

The reason for the Greenback's rebound has been a mix of risk-averse sentiment and Warsh's nomination, which quickly halted the selloff.

A friend of the Trump Administration, it will be tough to say whether he remains the Hawk he was baptized as when he left the Board of Governors in 2011 – he might just be turning dovish to help his case amid harsh demands from the President, but the FOMC remains a voting committee.

Discover: The Fed Chair has been picked: Who is Kevin Warsh?

Despite all the madness, Stocks remain resilient and are notably subject to some strong rebalancing flows.

Monday's US Manufacturing PMI beat, which collided with fear of elevated AI/Tech valuations from last October, led to a swift rotation towards more traditional sectors. This theme had been emerging for a while, but seems to be gathering some strength now.

Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap.

Read More:

• Chart alert: Alphabet (GOOGL) medium-term uptrend at risk of bearish reversal below $353.60/367.16
• Alphabet (GOOGL) Q4 Earnings Preview: Can AI and cloud momentum sustain the $4 trillion valuation?
• Risk-off flows and a Tech/AI Panic – Market Reactions

You can see how influential the past week of rebalancing has been, particularly as it influenced the Nasdaq the most (-4.22% in the past seven days!) and the Dow being the only performer (+1.20%).

Keep an eye on these Stock developments as it could could materialize into a new trend.

Since last week's gap lower in the Dollar, bulls have returned fiercely to take the DXY back above 97.00.

Still, momentum looks undecided when looking at the RSI and the absence of concrete direction.

• Either look for a break to the upside (close above 97.50) or to the downside (close below 97.00)

Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:

Resistance Levels

• August Range Bull/Bear High Timeframe Pivot 97.25 to 97.60
• 98.00 Key Resistance (+/- 100 pips)
• Pre-Greenland Resistance 99.25 to 99.50

Support Levels

• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00
• 95.50 to 95.70 Flash-crash Support
• 95.55 Trump-Crash Lows
• 94.70 to 95.00 Psychological level
• 93.00 Next Main Support

The US Dollar is surprisingly recovering some of its lost ground as the week continues.

Positive data and a still dominant economy remain strong backdrops for the Greenback, which is now up against almost all FX currencies in the past week.

The Canadian Dollar is also faring well against its FX peers, supported by rebounding Oil prices and recovering Canadian data.

It still underperforms a much stronger Aussie Dollar and the USD but remains one of the top performers of the past week.

USD/CAD is now evolving within a clear descending channel which controls its price action.

Standing at the mid-line and testing its Major Pivot Zone, the pair faces a significant technical test.

• Watch whether the action pushes above 1.37 to retest the upper bound of the Channel (1.3850)
• Or if it breaks lower, to at least retest the recent trough (1.3480) – There is still space for correction below.

Levels of interest for USD/CAD:

Resistance Levels

• Major Pivot Zone 1.3650 to 1.37
• 1.3750 4H 200-period MA
• 1.38 Key Resistance
• Major Resistance 1.3870 to 1.39 (January highs)

Support Levels

• 2025 Key support Zone 1.3560 to 1.36
• October 2024 Support 1.3450 to 1.35
• 1.3480 USD-Crash lows

The US Non-Farm Payrolls, supposed to be released on Friday, is once again delayed due to the recent partial Shutdown (which recently ended). We will update on the date when it gets communicated.

Canadian Employment is still awaited on Friday at 8:30 A.M.

Safe Trades!

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