US NFP and CPI double-decker – Markets Weekly Outlook

• Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.
• After a volatile stretch, traders buckle for a heavy-slate of US data.
• Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.

It is surprising to conclude a week that hasn't been marked by any crazy geopolitical headline or regime-changing event, yet markets were no less volatile.

After last week's gigantic drop in Metals, a wave of anxiety took traders by surprise, who embarked on a deleveraging journey – As we've seen since October, the previously undefeated Tech/Software sector and Cryptocurrencies are taking a streak of gut punches.

That's the particularity of high-volatility assets – standing at the extreme of the risk spectrum, they get battered a bit more than their more conservative counterparts.

Bitcoin and altcoins were the hardest hit by the recent market developments. The face of the digital asset Market corrected by more than 30% in a matter of three weeks of trading, reaching $60,000 in Thursday evening action. Quite a selloff.

But it seems we are indeed in the age of dip-buying, with prices bouncing back again today, $10,000 higher, and the mood not worsening much from the Thursday dips – Is this a dead cat bounce?

Can't say for sure, as we are in uncharted waters; some previous corrections extended beyond 50%, but participants will gain more certainty as time goes on.

Nasdaq also lost beyond 7%, leading US Indexes to their weekly tumbles before recovering back to 25,000, despite record earnings and CapEx announcements. The latter is what investors could be punishing with AI taking its part in this week's cloudy mood.

Artificial Intelligence is now feared to be causing the latest cracks in the mid-tier employment reports received throughout the week.

The Dow Jones was the star of the show, powered by strong outperformance from the Consumer Defensive, Industrial, and Financial sectors, casually reaching the 50,000 Milestone in the process!

The sudden rise in the Manufacturing PMIs also affected the flows!

It's quite a strong trend in Equities that has developed since the beginning of 2026.

I hope that some investors read our month-old edition on that aspect.

Nevertheless, it isn't like the sky is clear if you take a step back. Except for Energy, Defensive stocks and Emerging Markets breaking out, some rough charts are crippling Participants mood and volatility remains extremely elevated.

And it isn't the investor's best friend.

While US-Iran discussions are currently ongoing (and continuing throughout the weekend), skepticism is high among the two sides.

Conversations were reported to be constructive, yet demands from the US side are strict, and could see resistance from Iran – they rejected US calls to halt uranium enrichment and that's pretty much all we know for now.

A reminder that 30,000 casualties emerged from the Iranian revolts, and the toll could be higher – A very tragic development.

This surely is one of the more anxiety-prone developments for Markets which will need to be tracked closely throughout the weekend and coming weeks.

Metals caught some strays throughout the week but have remained resilient with the uncertainty ahead.

They are only back down to their 2026 starts, so nothing too concerning for now – But expect some more craziness next week with the NFP and CPI reports!

Discover More:

• Stock Markets and Tech sector breathe again – Dow Jones to new All-Time Highs!
• US Dollar Index (DXY) tests 98.00 but shows signs of weakness ahead of NFP
• Precious metals after the correction: stabilisation, not a new rally

Next week doesn't hold too many releases for APAC markets but will still have a high influence on Markets.

The main event is the Japanese general elections that will take place on Sunday morning (Saturday evening in North America) and will see whether recent explosions in the Nikkei 225, at the cost of the Yen, will be warranted.

Expect a volatile FX open on Sunday.

China will also publish their monthly CPI data which is an important tracker for the AUD and NZD and can also affect Global equities.

About the New Zealand Dollar, traders will have to check in on Thursday evening for the RBNZ Inflation expectations, a key test after the Kiwi's recent show of strength.

Europe hasn't been subject to much volatility for the past month with traders focusing more on commodities and developments elsewhere.

But with the Swiss Franc getting quite a lift from Market volatility, its look as the main safe-haven currency could get tested next Friday with the CPI release for Switzerland.

Traders will see if they can officially close out negative rates pricing for this year.

The only major data that will be released from the old continent comes from the UK, which releases its GDP data on Thursday and could have a strong influence on the GBP after the more dovish Bank of England meeting!

Discover: Bank of England moves closer to rate cuts. March a real turning point for monetary policy and the Pound

The recently ended partial Shutdown pushed the Non-Farm Payrolls report to this week, and is taking the Market on quite a rocky path ahead.

Monday will bring its wave of Fed speeches, and it is undoubtedly the least-packed session of the week for the US.

Waller's views could become interesting again as he officially got taken off the Federal Reserve Chair list so that he might take a more hawkish or at least neutral tone.

Tuesday will kick off the heavy slate of data week with Retail Sales (exp at 0.5%), but it will only open the door to the larger releases.

Non-Farm Payrolls are scheduled for Wednesday at 8:30 A.M. and should bring further certainty to the US Jobs market after this week’s few warnings.

But participants will only be able to sigh on Friday, depending on whether the US inflation report continues to show some easing.

The CPI is expected to increase by 0.3% m/m.

Keep a close eye on geopolitical developments, particularly those involving the US-Iran talks, as they are likely to continue influencing Commodity and broader Markets.

Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!

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