The peace process is stalling ahead of April Non Farm Payrolls – Markets Weekly Outlook

• Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.
• Stock Markets just reached new all-time highs but Investors are awaiting for fundamental confirmation before moving on the the next phase, including April NFP and more news regarding Iran and US talks
• Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.

US Stock Markets, particularly the Nasdaq and S&P have continued their relentless paths to fresh all-time highs, but the euphoric momentum is now somewhat stalling.

Investors are anxiously awaiting fundamental confirmation before committing to the next phase of this historic rally.

All eyes are now turning to the upcoming April Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, while the trading floor remains desperate for concrete progress in the stalled US-Iran diplomatic talks.

Without a definitive breakthrough, global assets remain trapped in a geopolitical limbo that is actively preventing major new trends from developing.

This week did deliver some great news for Stock Markets: Tech earnings delivered yet another blockbuster round.

The reporting Magnificent 7 heavyweights—Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Google—all posted record-breaking revenues.

However, the sheer, unprecedented scale of the ongoing AI capital expenditure boom is still frightening investors. With Stock valuations currently stretched to extreme limits, the tech titans will have to continue beating records again and again to make sure that they can maintain their high P/E pricing.

Meanwhile, the broader macroeconomic backdrop remains highly complex and weighting on general sentiment. WTI Crude bounced back above the $100 throughout this week, adding renewed inflationary fears for the coming months.

Yet, after a pivotal week featuring five major central banks (the BoE, BoC, BoJ, Fed, and ECB), aggressive rate hikes remain notably absent from their forward guidance, despite heavy expectations for the worst.

The lack of hawkish talks sparked a strong wave of relief trading: The US Dollar shot aggressively lower following Jerome Powell's final press conference, providing a lucrative tailwind for other FX majors and precious metals.

However, with Energy prices still grinding higher, a reality check could be imminent.

Stock markets remain at center stage, and next week will determine whether equities can continue surfing on record earnings, or if mounting macroeconomic and geopolitical anxieties will ultimately dampen their historic progress.

As said last week, an actual deal will be mandatory to sustain the rally.

Oil somehow rampaged again this week, but what really stands out is the fact that Global Markets really seem to have turned the page on its inverse correlation with other assets.

You can see for yourself: Both the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones are up another ~1-2% throughout the week despite the 5% rise in Petrol, and while Gold continued to pullback, Silver managed to remain unchanged.

Overall, this hints at further uncertainty in Markets, and traders are now treating each asset class individually (with many consolidation ranges), as the World awaits for further geopolitical news.

Discover:

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• Ethereum (ETH) on path to a continued breakout – Will it pull other altcoins?
• Gold (XAU/USD) slides 1% as concerns rise of prolonged Middle East conflict, can bulls hold the line at $4,500?

A few data points should be adding fuel to the nascent fire that gripped Forex Markets this week; A fire that has started with the Central Bank rate decisions and magnified with the Verbal Intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance.

Next week, without counting the US Dollar, the Aussie and New Zealand Dollars will be facing key tests with the back-to-back RBA meeting (no hikes priced, but communications will be closely watched) and New Zealand Employment data on Tuesday.

There will be a few mid-tier releases also, including the Bank of Japan minutes (potential mover), PMIs for Australia and Trade data for China.

The CHF will surely get the most attention next week, with Swiss inflation report (Tuesday) still a major contributor to FX volatility.

While Energy inflation should contribute to less chances of rate cuts for the Swissie, traders will have to remind that any huge strengthening could be met with currency intervention from the Swiss MoF.

The Eurozone will also be releasing their fair share of new data, including the Eurozone PPI and PMIs.

Euro Traders should also keep an eye on Thursday's Retail Sales and key speeches from Madame Lagarde, as they could either confirm or deter the fresher pricing for rate hikes at the upcoming meeting (June 11).

North America comes back to steal the show, with heavy Central Bank speeches and Employment releases.

Monday starts the show with Fed's Williams delivering an address (Monday 12:50 ET) – and he currently is the most influential speaker at the Federal Reserve so watch out for his tone (which could well enough dictate the next rate decision, as seen in November).

Not mentioning a few PMIs for the US (ISM Services on Tuesday) and Canada (Ivey PMIs on Wednesday), traders will be all eyes and ears for the Employment data releasing from Tuesday to Friday.

This includes the classic, mid-tier ADP Private Data, but most importantly, the Canadian and US Payrolls.

The effect of the war on the economy is starting to be felt, so major surprises could create significant spikes in the action after relatively dull weeks.

We will publish a preview, but what you have to remember is to focus particularly more on the Unempl

Safe Trades and keep an eye on US-Iran talks!

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