Markets Today: FTSE 100 down 100-odd points, Gold hovers at $5000/oz, AliBaBa, Walmart Earnings and US data ahead

• Asian markets rose on tech/foreign inflows.
• European stocks fell on mixed earnings (Airbus down, Nestlé up) and Mideast tension.
• Gold and Silver surged, benefiting from safe-haven demand amid US-Iran friction.
• Focus will shift toward the release of initial jobless claims and the December trade surplus report.

Boosted by a surge in US technology giants, Asian markets climbed on Thursday despite reduced trading volumes due to Lunar New Year closures in Hong Kong, China, and Taiwan.

The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (excluding Japan) rose 0.4%, while Tokyo’s Nikkei climbed 0.7%. South Korea’s Kospi led the region with a jump of over 3%, hitting a record high following news of a major multi-year AI chip deal between Nvidia and Meta Platforms that energized tech sectors globally.

In Japan, foreign capital continues to flood the market, with investors injecting a net 1.42 trillion yen ($9.15 billion) into local equities in the week ending February 14.

This marks the eighth straight week of net purchases and the highest inflow since October. Investor confidence has been bolstered by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent election victory, which signaled the advancement of her pro-growth reforms and stimulus packages.

Consequently, the Nikkei reached a historic peak of 58,015.08 last week, capping off a nearly 5% weekly gain.

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European markets retreated slightly on Thursday, with the pan-European STOXX index dipping 0.1% to 628.24 points as investors reacted to a diverse set of corporate earnings and escalating geopolitical friction.

Global sentiment remained cautious due to increased military activity between the US and Iran in the Middle East, a tension that overshadowed ongoing progress in nuclear negotiations in Geneva. While the broader market softened, the energy sector managed modest gains, supported by a 1% rise in crude oil prices amid the regional instability.

Corporate performance drove significant volatility across individual stocks, notably within the aerospace and consumer goods sectors.

Airbus saw its shares tumble 5.4% after the manufacturer lowered its primary jet production targets, while mining giant Rio Tinto dropped 3.8% following flat annual earnings that fell short of analyst estimates due to soft iron ore prices.

Conversely, Nestlé provided a bright spot, gaining 3.5% after reporting robust fourth-quarter sales growth and announcing the divestment of its ice cream business, though its success was not enough to offset the 2.3% slide in the broader mining sector.

On the FX front, the US dollar softened in early trade but maintained a position above its recent lows as Federal Reserve minutes revealed a cautious stance toward interest rate cuts. Policymakers indicated they are in no rush to ease policy, with several members even suggesting openness to further hikes if inflation remains persistent.

Meanwhile, the euro held steady near $1.18, stabilizing after a sharp decline triggered by reports that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde might step down before her term concludes in October next year.

In the Pacific, the Japanese yen weakened for a second consecutive session following the Trump administration's announcement of a $36 billion investment package, marking the first phase of Japan’s broader $550 billion commitment to the United States.

The Australian dollar remained flat at $0.7050 as domestic unemployment held steady at a low 4.1%. Conversely, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.3% to $0.5982, recovering slightly from its largest one-day drop in nearly a year after the central bank adopted a more conservative outlook on future rate increases than investors had anticipated.

Currency Power Balance

Gold prices climbed further on Thursday, building on a 2% surge from the previous session as investors sought safety amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

Spot gold rose 0.7% to $5,012.83 per ounce, while US gold futures for April delivery reached $5,031.20.

Geopolitical concerns have moved to the forefront following reports that any potential US military action against Iran could be a weeks-long engagement. Although the White House noted some minor progress during nuclear talks in Geneva this week, officials cautioned that a significant gap remains between the two nations' positions.

Silver also saw a substantial recovery, with spot prices rising 2.7% to $79.24 per ounce after a 5% jump on Wednesday.

The metal is benefiting from a combination of tight supply and dwindling exchange inventories ahead of the March contract delivery period.

Despite this rebound, silver has not yet returned to a stable upward trajectory; following a historic correction earlier in the month, I believe the metal needs to trade back above the $86 mark to confirm its recovery is sustainable.

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The day ahead is a quiet one in terms of EU and UK data with a host of data being released this morning.

Just ahead of the US open, the market will get earnings calls from both AliBaBa and Walmart which could shake volatility.

Focus will then shift toward the release of initial jobless claims and the December trade surplus report. President Donald Trump set a bullish tone last night via social media, claiming the national trade deficit plummeted by 78% last year and predicting the US could achieve a full trade surplus in 2026.

If today’s data confirms a narrower-than-expected deficit for December, it would likely boost growth projections for the fourth quarter of 2025 and provide the US dollar with a short-term lift.

Despite this potential for a bounce, the broader outlook for the greenback remains challenged. While the US Dollar Index (DXY) may drift toward the 98.00 level on positive data, a pervasive "sell the rally" sentiment continues to dominate the market.

Many market participants expect the currency’s strength to be fleeting, as long-term expectations for Federal Reserve policy and global trade shifts maintain downward pressure on the dollar's overall trajectory.

From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index continues to hold comfortably above the 100-day MA and extend its gains.

Having printed fresh highs yesterday around the 10721 handle the index has seen a notable pullback of a little more than 100 points..

For now though, bulls remain firmly in control even though a pullback to support around the 10578 and 10550 mark cannot be ruled out.

Only a four-hour candle close below the higher low swing point at 10450 would lead to a change in structure and could lead me to reevaluate my outlook.

Immediate support rests at 10578 before the 10550 handle comes into focus.

Resistance to the upside at 10680 needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the daily and all-time highs at 10721.

FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, February 19, 2026

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