Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 5
Today's trading was definitely not as hopeful as yesterday, reminding everyone how tricky Markets can be.
It certainly hasn't been a typical Market amid the ongoing brutal US-Iran war. Safe-havens like Bonds and Gold are once again hurting from profit-taking and inflationary fears, but Equity Markets haven't fared much better.
As detailed in our earlier Oil Market analysis, as long as the commodity finds reasons to rise, investor mood will continue to degrade, and that is precisely what happened today.
Energy commodities found a new bid in today's volatile session, as attacks on Gulf countries and their oil-producing facilities are multiplied, with the Iranian regime decidedly sparing no one in their ruthless ripostes – Even Azerbaijan was victim of a drone attack today.
Today, the Islamic regime sent out brutal waves of attacks against an oil production facility in Bahrein, which sent Black Gold flashing to July 2024 highs ($82.30 for WTI!) and turned Market mood on its head – Stock Markets have fallen around the globe, with slight corrections in the US (~ Down 1%) and larger ones in Europe (~ -3%).
What saved the American session, however, was China's announcement of talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for Oil and natural gas deliveries to Asia.
Iran has close ties to China, so participants are taking this news more seriously.
If Oil falls below $80 and remains there for a while, it will help to sustain a more decent Market mood.
Risk assets have since rallied significantly from their lows, and Oil has eased back. You can take a look at the brutal Stock Market reversal right below!
Stock Market Heatmap for the Session
Most of the Market got battered today, with the end-session rebound really saving the action from a very ugly-picture.
Local winners include tech stocks, which continue to trade higher (less affected by the war, on the contrary), and Energy equities which keep enjoying from higher Oil prices.
Cross-Assets Daily Performance
Today's asset picture sends out stagflationary fears, with all types of assets correcting amid the daily Oil explosion.
It is surprising to see that metals are also getting heavily rejected, but less surprising if you had check out our recent Gold analysis!
This war trade has moved in several faces and should expect to continue acting very dynamically – Oil remains the product to watch, for the rest, things are a bit all over the place!
Watch how sentiment sustains after today's late-session rebound.
A picture of today's performance for major currencies
After a 2-session break in its rally, the US Dollar is forming the basis for another rally.
Keep a close eye on the Dollar Index – If it breaks its preceding peak (99.68), furious short-covering could be unfolding.
Still, the Dollar eased its ascention after the China comments. It remains the safe-haven currency during this war trade, so keep track of how it evolves.
Risk-currencies like the AUD and NZD took a beating on the other hand! Large profit-taking going on there!
A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions
As if Iran news weren't enough, traders should be preparing for a banger tomorrow.
Non-Farm Payrolls and US Retail Sales will be releasing at the same time, so traders will have to keep a close eye on potential data divergence – expect reactions to the data to remain a priority throughout until ~10:00 (post-Market open). Keep a close eye on the Unemployment Rate!
After this, traders will focus back on Weekend risk.
Euro traders will also have to remain attentive to the Eurozone GDP, with Christine Lagarde also speaking similarly (5:00 A.M. ET).
Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.
Safe Trades!
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